An annual tradition for me here at The Awards Circuit is to make an early grouping of the hopefuls for Best Picture, categorizing them by their assumed chances.  I freely admit that my success rate has been only decent with these articles, but that kind of comes with the territory of Oscar prognostication.  This time around I’m going with a larger slate than usual (and doing it a little differently as well), which has a lot to do with the massive uncertainty this year’s race has surrounding it.  For starters, how many nominees will we have?  How many films will be able to get the required amount of #1 votes to qualify for a nomination?   All of this remains to be seen, but for now, I’ve tried to grab almost all of the viable contenders for Best Picture and laid them out for you.  Lots can change between now and the nominations, but this is where I think things stand at this moment.  At the very least, it’ll be interesting to see how this matches up to the eventual nominees.  Enough delays though, let’s get on with the list!

The “Wishful Thinking” Category

These are the films I’d say are 100% out of the race, regardless of their quality.  Some are excellent films that either are too small or too problematic to be included in the field, and others just didn’t live up to the expectations had for them.  There are lots of flicks that fits this criteria, but I chose to highlight 10 of them.  The movies in question are:

The Beaver
Bellflower
Jane Eyre
Larry Crowne
Melancholia
One Day
Red State
This Must Be the Place
W.E.
Water for Elephants

The Beaver, Bellflower, and Red State have the quality (at least to me), but the latter two are far too small/specialized to get any recognition (plus Kevin Smith’s unique release strategy doesn’t help the film’s chances, despite it getting an Oscar qualifying run recently), and Mel Gibson’s antics destroyed not only the former film’s box office potential, but any awards potential as well.  The same goes for Lars von Trier and Melancholia, though perhaps Kirsten Dunst can overcome that.  The other releases are out due to them not having the reviews/regard that they were hoping for.  So essentially, count those movies out.  In another world they might have been contenders…just not this one.

The “Dark horse/Long shot” Category

This next grouping consists of 25 films this year that I think ultimately won’t be contenders, but aren’t out of the race yet.  They either have subject matter that could be problematic, or just don’t seem to have the right traction yet.  Some of them are bigger contenders to others, but for me I’m inclined to bet against them right now.  For many, if this was a mandatory year of 10, they’d be sitting a lot prettier than they are currently.  The movies in question are as follows:

360
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Albert Nobbs
A Better Life
Bridesmaids
Carnage
Contagion
Coriolanus
Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Heroes of Nanjing
The Iron Lady
The Lady
On the Road
Rampart
Rango
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Rum Diary
The Skin I Live In
Take Shelter
Take This Waltz
The Way
We Need to Talk About Kevin
Win Win

A few of these have better chances than others of breaking away from the pack and moving towards a good shot at Best Picture.  I’d say those include Contagion (if it taps into the psyche of the a paranoid society in the right way) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes mainly, but there’s no way of knowing.  Yes, I’m still not buying the chances of Harry Potter right now, but if the precursors embrace it, I’ll have to adjust my ratings accordingly.  Carnage is a film I’d have placed higher before the trailer hit, as it lowered most people’s expectations a degree or two.  Perhaps that’ll ultimately help it, but for now, I’m skeptical at best.  The rest are entries that could do better in other categories, but are going to need lots of help to make a dent in the Best Picture race.

The “Second Tier” Contenders

These films are solidly in play for Best Picture, but have serious question marks.  I’d say that there will be a few from this list that make it to the big show, but some will no doubt fade away as well.  There’s a dozen of these particular flicks that would like to be considered big time contenders.  I don’t see them as big time ones yet, but like I said, they’re not far off.  The movies I see in this light are:

50/50
Beginners
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Martha Marcy May Marlene
My Week with Marilyn
Super 8
The Tree of Life
Warrior
Young Adult

I’m sure that there’s a version of this year’s race where some combination of these 12 films could make up the Best Picture field, but there’s still another dozen films to come with better chances.  That makes these flicks need to distinguish themselves in some way.  Some will, but some won’t.  My best guess has 50/50 being different enough from most other contenders and using that to its advantage.  I’m not nearly as high on The Tree of Life as most, but I think it’s too polarizing for a birth in Best Picture this year.  I could definitely be wrong though.  The big question mark for me will be the remake of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.  If it’s as good as most David Fincher films, there’s no reason to think it won’t be a big contender.  The thing is, will voters be as interested in it this soon after seeing the original?  I’m not sure, but if they are, I think it might just be a part of the final slate of nominees.

The “Pole Position” Contenders

These are the dozen most likely contenders for Best Picture.  My personal Oscar predictions consist of all but 2 of these films.  They each have a lot in their favor, and seem to be sitting quite pretty.  They’re some of the most mentioned films so far this year, and I don’t exact that to change anytime soon.  Which 12 flicks are they, you ask?  Well, they are the following:

The Artist
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Drive
The Help
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Like Crazy
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
We Bought a Zoo

I can’t see a situation where Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris doesn’t get nominated.  As for the rest of them, none are locks, but The Artist is definitely building on its buzz quite well, as are Drive and Like Crazy.  The Help seems to be getting to be a more likely nominee by the day, and you can never count out Steven Spielberg, so it’s foolish to not pick War Horse.  I may be higher on Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (my current pick to take home Best Picture) and We Bought a Zoo than most, but something about them fits in this year’s race for me.  It’s an ever evolving study though, so keep that in mind.  Combine this group with the previous dozen, and I think those will make up the 24 films that get filtered down to somewhere between 5 and 10 nominees in the end.

There you have it.  I see this year as being a race between 59 films for those elusive slots.  Most of them have little to no chance at being nominated, but as I said, there’s about two dozen solid contenders right now.  I’m sure that the list will be reduced soon enough, though we could also see it increase as the festival circuit reveals some new contenders for our predicting pleasure.  The one thing you have to be sure of is this though…it’s going to be a very interesting Oscar season!

-How do you see Best Picture shaping up?

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