Well, we are now out of HTML format (in most aspects), some of the kinks of the new Awards Circuit are still being worked out but everything for the most part seems to be running quite smoothly.  Twice a month, and more often when we get into the real epicenter of season, I’ll be diving into the Oscar predictions with an in-depth analysis here while then transitioning into the official Oscar predictions of the Awards Circuit.

Predictions have begun and for the first time ever in my predictions career, I’ve inquired with a few of the writers and close colleagues on some of their thoughts on one or two categories to see if I discovered something new or feel validated in making certain choices.  There are various things flying around the web as this article is being written:  Venice Film Awards have gone out, Toronto is in full swing and some films are making a ton of money.  With the Academy’s decision to not fully commit to ten films but at least five, prognosticators are speculating how many films there will be.  I estimate there will be somewhere between seven or eight.  Until December sometime, I’ll keep predicting ten just for accuracy purposes.

The Motion Picture field has some solid contenders already generating some heat.  Michel Hazanvicius’ silent film The Artist has been making much noise considering.  I think the film is going to have some real die hard fans out there that will be singing its praises all season long.  Same can be said for its lead actor Jean Dujardin who could be this year’s Roberto Benigni, without the jumping on the chairs hopefully.  I’m considering myself ballsy to think they’re going to love the film that much and go for co-star Berenice Bejo.  The Supporting Actress field just seems so transparent with Viola Davis from The Help and Keira Knightley from A Dangerous Method set to be campaigned lead.  Ralph Fiennes’ Shakespearean adaptation Coriolanus has received some nice early word especially for Vanessa Redgrave and is said to be dynamite.  Considering her absence for her book end beautiful work in  Joe Wright’s Atonement, it’s going to be nice to see her get some Oscar love again in her late career.

The big question mark that everyone seems to be wondering is will Jessica Chastain, given her stellar in year in half a dozen films, get noticed by the Academy?  Three of her films are big players in the race this season, The Help, Take Shelter, and The Tree of Life.  My speculation (or otherwise called advice) for her PR people is to campaign her HARD for the film that will likely get recognized in the Best Picture field.  Some say that it’s Tate Taylor’s The Help, others, myself included, think it’s Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life.  Reasoning you ask?  The Help has massive internal competition coming from near shoo-in at this point, Octavia Spencer and I’m sure even though she’s campaigning lead, some will still say Viola Davis is supporting and throw votes that way.  You can’t forget Bryce Dallas Howard and Emma Stone to siphon some votes as well.  In Malick’s film, she’s the leading lady and has no other competition to work through and I suspect that there is a small percentage of the Academy who worship Malick that are going to vote the film #1 and we’ll see the film land a nomination by year’s end.  Chastain’s chances lie in Malick’s film.

Alexander Payne’s The Descendants has received some stellar reviews especially for George Clooney along with co-stars Robert Forster and Shailene Woodley.  This is the type of film Oscar loves and often goes for.  There’s no reason to count it out of the race.  Also getting some good ink is Bennett Miller’s sophomore follow-up Moneyball, especially for Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill getting some career best reviews.  George Clooney’s The Ides of March have received decent enough reviews though not stellar.  That may hurt it in the long run when voters are placing the film at number’s three and four and not at one.  By now, Nicolas Winding Refn’s Drive has captured the eye of many critics including our own Joey Magidson.  If the lone director were to return this year, Refn would be an outstanding choice for the honor.

The word is still out on Steven Spielberg’s War Horse which remains on top for the time being and Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar as a potential spoiler.  Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close hasn’t had a solid mention yet but there is early speculation that the film is something of a marvel along with a very strong performance from young talent Thomas Horn.

You can navigate through the predictions; however, there is no Oscar Homepage yet, which will be worked out by the end of the week along with the rest of the predictions, Screenplay, Animated Feature, and the Technical categories.   Make sure to use the sidebar as well as the header menu or I can link you here: Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress.

Happy Predicting and place your predictions in the comment section of the page AND include them in our newly vamped up Forum.

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