My Oscar Predictions are due this weekend and I’ve been playing with them quite a bit. I’ve even been having mini-pow-wow’s with some of my staff talking it up with them and what we think will or will not make it. It’s funny that this time of the year I foresee many possibilities as almost assured things but that’s just my ego talking. Ain’t no way, we’re close to sewn up in any category in October. This is wide open for many surprises and this makes this year very exciting.
In my next round of predictions I’ll likely be dropping the ten Best Picture nominees. I’ve known for a while that there would be anywhere between six and eight nominees with the new ruling but I’ve stayed with ten for percentage purposes. In the big category I’m definitely staying with Steven Spielberg’s War Horse for now. It’s the safest bet, the new images that hit are actually very beautiful and the story itself will have critics and audiences cheering. Many (and I am fully aware this to happen as well) think Spielberg’s film will crash and burn. In the likely event, what would jump out in front? I’m thoroughly feeling Michel Hazanvicius’ The Artist could be the big darling of the season leading all the way to Oscar love. Many pundits out there that have seen it including critics from Telluride, Toronto, and Cannes have championed the film. Hopefully it’ll be something that will age well with audiences overtime. Do we all still think Crash was the best of 2005? Could ever fathom the Academy choosing Braveheart again with the same lineup from 1995? Hell no.
The daunting tasks lie in Supporting Actor and Actress. Many predictors have Christopher Plummer from Beginners and Vanessa Redgrave from Coriolanus winning their respective categories but let’s be serious for a second. Is it really that clear? Throw in some Albert Brooks from Drive and Kenneth Branagh from My Week with Marilyn and we got a heavy hitter in Supporting Actor ready to emerge. With the ladies, you have any of the talents from The Help particularly Octovia Spencer, the “it” girl of the year Jessica Chastain for any of her 27,034 films in contention, and Berenice Bejo who according to a review that Robert Hamer pointed out to me, you can’t vote for The Artist without voting for Bejo. That may mean something huge.
If I could have three wishes for this year’s Oscars, what would I wish for you ask? Let’s pretend I’m talking to Robin Williams from Aladdin and he’s granting these wishes. I wish that Michelle Williams changes my mind in thinking she was highly miscast and knocks it out of the park as Marilyn Monroe. I want Williams to have her Oscar one day.
My second wish Genie? I wish that Leonardo DiCaprio didn’t try to play something like J. Edgar Hoover and the Academy would have recognized him for his two powerhouse performances in his career, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? and The Departed. If they recognized when they had the chance, we wouldn’t be dying for him to win an Oscar for what seems to be the wrong role in Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar. Did you see the trailer? If you thought it looked good, I might wish for that good stuff that you’re smoking right now.
The third and final wish is for a million wishes. No, seriously, it’s that something, and I mean something will blow me away this season that becomes this generation’s Platoon or Dead Poets Society or Schindler’s List. Films that have made a staple for me in cinema and remain embedded in my heart and soul for all time. Films that have this potential this year could be Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close or The Artist or Breaking Dawn Part I (LMAO). Okay, I’m done joking but the first two are real.
Predictions will be updated this weekend, until then, give me your three wishes for this year’s Oscar ceremony.
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Tags: Clint Eastwood, Drive, Editor, extremely loud and incredibly close, J. Edgar, Leonardo DiCaprio, michel hazanvicius, Oscar Circuit, oscar predictions, predictions, the artist, war horse
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The first time I discovered Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo came in a hilarious James Bond-spoof entitled “OSS 117: Cairo Nest of Spies”. The film is a fine example in seeing their amazing on-screen chemistry and brilliant comedic sensibilities…
Michael Ward(Quote) (Reply)
I actually only have one wish for the season, and it’s for the Academy – as well as all awards bodies – to use their platform to broaden the scope of what we consider “Oscar-worthy” achievements rather than constricting it.
Robert Hamer(Quote) (Reply)
I know a lot of people disagree, but I’m really hoping for some love for the Deathly Hallows Pt. II. The film was fantastic and Alan Rickman did some of the most emotional acting of recent years with his final portrayal as Snape. The series improved and grew so much from the beginning and by the final film it was finally perfected. Here’s hoping for a Best Picture nod and a Supporting Actor nod for Rickman.
Also I hope The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, 50/50, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are half as good as the trailers make them look.
I think The Artist will have similar reception to The Tree of Life where either people either think it’s a masterpiece or they hate it.
My Predictions as of now
1. The Descendants
2. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
3. Moneyball
4. J. Edgar
5. Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
6. The Help
7. A Dangerous Method
8. The Artist
9. Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows Pt. II
10. Drive
MTM48400(Quote) (Reply)
I suppose my wish is to hope against hope Michael Parks or John Goodman gets noticed for Red State. Besides that, just that Drive gets the Oscar attention it deserves.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Harry Potter best pic nod, Alan Rickman best supporting actor nod, kevin smith best original screenplay nod.
Anna Belickis(Quote) (Reply)
Well… I´m sure some of you already know my numer 1 wish = will the Academy please give Meryl her 3rd Oscar already!
With that out of the way, I have 2 wishes left. I´ve seen very few of the films so far, “The Artist” being one of them. It´s sublime in every way, heartbreaking, powerful, intriguing, poignant, intelligent, romantic, funny and so sensitive. In the era of “Avatar”, Michel Hazanvicius managed to blow the film industry out of the water with this masterpiece. I´d probably award the film in just about every category – Film, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Music Score… But I guess that would be taking my wishes a little too far. So a Best Picture Oscar for “The Artist” would be my second wish (an unlikely one, I know, but it would be).
My third wish would be, come Oscar nomination morning, not to see Leonardo DiCaprio-s name in the Best Actor race (another unlikely wish – but that I would SO wish for). Now again, I despised the trailer for “The Kids Are All Right” last year – and was incredibly surprised with Annette Bening when I finally saw the film. I´d guess that chances are a little lower that will happen once I watch “J. Edgar”.
Wrapping up – my wishes:
1) Meryl for Best Actress;
2) The Artist for Best Picture;
3) Leo OUT OF THE RACE.
Oh, and if the genie allowed me to have 4 wishes, the last one would be to see both Meryl and Vanessa winning Oscars in the same year. As all of you may know, Meryl´s first role in the movies was for the film where Redgrave won her first Academy Award, “Julia”. Since then, they´ve become very close friends and acted together in “The House of the Spirits” and “Evening” – both of which I disliked, unfortunately… Still, I consider them to represent the very best that the States and England have regarding acting. Seeing that official Academy picture of the winners holding their Oscars and having Meryl & Vanessa together in it would be just phenomenal.
Mikael(Quote) (Reply)
I’ll do one for each category I suppose
Best Picture – The Tree of Life
Best Actor – Hunter McCracken would be a nice surpise, but I’d like to see Pitt get a win. Brendan Gleeson would be awesome as well.
Best Actress – Streep to miss out on a nom
Best Supporting Actor – Pitt for TTOL
Best Supporting Actress – No wish
Others
Best Cinematography – TTOL will surely win?
Jim Wilson(Quote) (Reply)
“Many (and I am fully aware this to happen as well) think Spielberg’s film will crash and burn. In the likely event, what would jump out in front?”
What kind of a man are you?
So, let us ignore the fact that you have admitted that the film looks beautiful and has great chances of being successful. Why single out the one film that is most commonly singled out as the frontrunner in the top categories as the one you think will “crash and burn”. Wouldn’t the fact that the even bookies who have financial interest in these matters and who have “War Horse” in the #1 position to win mean that there are no “many” you speak of? Or that there are many more such people for any other contender out there? So, again, why single out the most commonly predicted film as having some sort of a bad buzz. And what justifies your use of the word “likely?”.
It isn’t. War Horse will be a great movie and it will do very very well. Spiielberg is the most successful force in movie history and has directed more Best Picture nomieenes then anyone out there right now. Apart from wishing that people like yourself would stop being so hateful (especially in the posts entitled “I wish”), I simply look forward to when you will see the film for yourself and realize that it’s great. And I look forward to Tintin also being a “Best Picture” nominee. Enough with pre-emptive negativity already.
techceo(Quote) (Reply)
What kind of man am I?
I’m not sure giving my opinion on whether or not “War Horse” will flop or not damages my integrity as a man.
You stating that the film WILL do very well is a very bold statement considering nobody has seen the film. And yes, Spielberg has directed many Best Picture nominees over his career but let’s look at his past directorial efforts, Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Munich, The Terminal, Catch Me If You Can, Minority Report, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence. That’s since 2001 and the only nominee in the bunch is Munich and many would say the film barely made the Top 5 in its respective year. If this was 1998, I’d be all about it but Spielberg is hit or miss in his later career and those no “guarantee” even if “War Horse” is decent, that AMPAS will go for it. Some of those films are decent enough but they didn’t carry him to the ceremony. I’d watch what you say because based on those stats, you could easily eat your words Christmas week.
And BTW, I still have “War Horse” out in front. I just would not be surprised in the slightest if it flopped.
Clayton Davis(Quote) (Reply)
But seriously, if you are NOT predicting War Horse you are fooling yourself. It is as a solid an unseen contender as any out there.
And on a personal note, I hope for some love towards ‘Rio’ – the best animated movie I’ve seen in years.
techceo(Quote) (Reply)
Everybody is entitled to their opinion you never know what can happen at this sage especially with unseen films. I’m among the people who think War Horse will not live up to its expectations.
As for you saying, “But seriously, if you are NOT predicting War Horse you are fooling yourself. It is as a solid an unseen contender as any out there.”
The same could have been said for nine back in 2009.
MTM48400(Quote) (Reply)
Or Hereafter back in 2010.
Robert Hamer(Quote) (Reply)
Gotta agree with Robert Hamer up there.
It’d be fantastic to see Drive get some notable Oscar love. Albert Brooks and Ryan Gosling both turned in fantastic performances. I would argue for a Directing and Best Picture nomination as well.
I was fortunate enough to see 50/50 about a month ago, and Gordon-Levitt turned in the best performance of the year in my opinion, and this is even after loving Pitt in Moneyball. It’d be fantastic to see the Academy recognize such a perfect blend of comedy and drama.
David Thomas(Quote) (Reply)
DRIVE
RYAN GOSLING for DRIVE (not Ides)
Carey Mulligan for DRIVE
Anything else for Drive…
Johnny(Quote) (Reply)
My 3 wishes:
Best actor in a leading role winner: Clooney for The Descendants or DeCaprio for J. Edgar (i desagree with Clayton)
Best actress in a leading role winner: Streep
Best director: Payne for The descendants or Eastwood for J. Edgar
tomaszapa(Quote) (Reply)
I wish for:
Shame to meet my extremely high expectations
Ryan Gosling to get in for Drive
J. Edgar not to suck
koook160(Quote) (Reply)