“It’s the most wonderful time of the year.”
The critics are about to dish out their favorite films of 2011 and what year it has been. I spent the Thanksgiving holiday weekend catching up on a plethora of screeners, some I need to buckle down and review like Albert Nobbs, Carnage, and Coriolanus, but I’m ready to dive head first in what seems to be one of the most interesting and competitive races in some years. Some categories are questions marks still and with the new Oscar voting system in place, we’ll have no idea how this will affect the “quality” of nominees.
Michael Ward gave a terrific in-depth analysis of the New York Film Critics history. The organization will kick off the season tomorrow by announcing their winners for 2011. At the same time, the Independent Spirit Awards will be unveiling their best in independent cinema, which Joey Magidson has previewed here. Will tomorrow offer up any surprises and throw a wrench in the works? Or will it just solidify most of our thoughts on the season thus far.
Best Picture
The NYFCC has chosen some of the best films of the last decade, often correlating directly with Oscar attention. Last year they chose David Fincher’s The Social Network, a critics’ darling that ultimately lost the big one come actual Oscar ceremony. Gauging their likes and dislikes this early in the game is near impossible. Depending on whether they’ve seen the finished products of Steven Spielberg’s War Horse and Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close will be something to be seen if they are mentioned. Michel Hazanavicius’ The Artist stands a fighting chance given the source material as well as Tate Taylor’s The Help. Ultimately, I see the organization going completely head over heels for Alexander Payne’s The Descendants. It’s the type of film they love with a terrific lead performance to helm the ship.
Predicted: The Descendants
Runner-Up: The Artist
Obscure Choice: The Help or Shame
Directing
In the past two years, NYFCC’s Best Picture and Director Winner have matched up with one another. If I’m correct on the prediction of The Descendants being chosen has the winner, it’s a bit foolish to count out director, Alexander Payne. I think they recognize the “little man” often enough that smaller films with smaller directors could land in major discussion. Terrence Malick is definitely a threat for his visual masterpiece The Tree of Life. Midnight in Paris director Woody Allen is probably a favorite in this year’s discussion given a “return to form” critique from nearly all major critics. Steve McQueen’s Shame has been hailed by many as one of the best works for NC-17 since Last Tango in Paris. This could land him a much deserved Directing mention for his sleek and stylish film about sex addiction. If New York is feeling proud of their city this year and with the ten year anniversary of 9/11 that just passed, they may feel compelled and inspired to reward Stephen Daldry. They did choose United 93 as their best film in 2006.
Predicted: Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Runner-Up: Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Obscure Choice: Steve McQueen for Shame or Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Best Actor
This is where Michael Fassbender can create a great following for himself he lands this award tomorrow morning/afternoon. His work in Shame remains one of the best works of the year and it’s the type of performance that New York loves and will often go for. Last year however, they did choose Colin Firth for The King’s Speech which lined up perfectly with Oscar so if they go with the frontrunner then George Clooney or Jean Dujardin should easily be named tomorrow. Gary Oldman, a longtime snubbed performer by many critics and guilds could land his first of what could be many mentions for Tomas Alfredson’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Watch out for Michael Shannon for Take Shelter or (*cross fingers*) Ryan Gosling for Drive.
Predicted: George Clooney for The Descendants
Runner Up: Jean Dujardin for The Artist
Obscure Choice: Michael Fassbender for Shame or Michael Shannon for Take Shelter
Best Actress
This race for this award is easily between Viola Davis and Michelle Williams. They both have performances that New York loves and will go crazy for. Davis’ The Help is a big box office champion. She owns the movie from start to finish and this will create a great start for her on her road to the Oscar. In My Week with Marilyn, Williams elevates a near bland and uninventive film which shows more of her talents and with the role itself on voter’s minds, Marilyn Monroe would be a great recognition for them to make. While I agree slightly with Michael’s argument of “frontrunner” status and NYFCC looking elsewhere, I feel a connection with Davis and the New York critics. For the love of God, please don’t let me hear Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady or Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs. That will show a veteran type showdown coming down the line for this season. Possible winners also could be Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene or Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin, both independent works that anyone would love to see step up.
Predicted: Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Runner Up: Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene
Obscure Choice: Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin or Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Supporting Actor
Is this the beginning of the Beginners star Christopher Plummer making his way to the stage? Is Kenneth Branagh or Albert Brooks in tow? Villains have won that past five out of six years so the obvious choice is Albert Brooks. I don’t think he’s got it though. Believe it or not, the terrible reviews for Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar still may not hold critics back from rewarding co-star and best-in-show Armie Hammer. He plays the “supportive lover” which aligns perfectly with the Oscar “supportive wife.” Last year they chose Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right, one of many citations he would receive during the year. Ezra Miller has been stirring up a lot of talk lately and is still on the table as far as a nomination is concerned. This could be a nice prize for him. This race in terms of New York, is up in the air still.
Predicted: Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Runner Up: Ezra Miller for We Need to Talk About Kevin
Obscure Choice: Armie Hammer for J. Edgar or Ben Kingsley for Hugo
Best Supporting Actress
How great would it be Jessica Chastain kick one in out of the gate. My guess if it were to happen, The Help would be a likely choice to recognize her. Octavia Spencer is also a bonafide threat to land a mention. Though for months, we’ve all speculated Vanessa Redgrave would win the Oscar for Coriolanus, it could be something that may not come to fruition. Carey Mulligan fits the mold for a Supporting Actress mention as does Berenice Bejo. Can Melissa McCarthy win for Bridesmaids? Do you remember when Cameron Diaz won the Best Actress award for There’s Something About Mary? It’s possible. Crossing my fingers for Anjelica Huston in 50/50 and perhaps Jodie Foster in Carnage.
Predicted: Jessica Chastain for The Help
Runner Up: Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
Obscure Choice: Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs or Marion Cotillard for Midnight in Paris
Screenplay
Predicted: The Descendants
Runner Up: Midnight in Paris
Obscure Choice: Young Adult or Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted: The Adventures of Tin Tin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Runner Up: Winnie the Pooh
Obscure Choice: Cars 2 or Arthur Christmas
Best Cinematography
Predicted: The Tree of Life
Runner Up: Drive
Obscure Choice: The Artist or Hugo
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted: Project Nim
Runner Up: If a Tree Falls
Obscure Choice: Buck or We Were Here
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted: A Separation
Runner Up: Where Do We Go Now?
Obscure Choice: Beyond or Happy Happy
What are your predictions?
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Interesting picks…
Just a heads up Daldry is out of contention since his film did not screen for them.
This year will definitely be an important one for the NYCC folks. First they came extremely unprofessional when they declared “Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close” a dead film in the race when they were told producers were not going to rush the film for their viewing. Second being the first is never a good thing in the race as it often catapults films that usually don’t survive the buzz for too long. It over hypes films that sometimes don’t live up to that hype. Imagine the NBR who usually were the first and their choices such as “Up In The Air” or Leslie Manvile for Best Actress. It can kill chances just like that. But this also could work for them, they do indeed have more influence in the Oscar race than even let’s say the Golden Globes. So to them I wish all the luck. From what I understand the last film viewed was “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo” with that said my predictions are:
Best Film: The Descendats (The film was a smash hit with them. They went balistic for “Sideways”, this can easily follow the linest. Runner-Up would be “The Artist”. It’s reminiscent to “LA Confidential” win and how that was pegged the rebirth of noir films…yeah lol. The NYFCC sometimes gets caught up in the rebirth talk but they mostly likely stick to the adult films with deeper meanings. Spoiler would be “The Tree of Life” if there is something the NYFFC know how to do is set a standard for the Academy. Making Malick’s film the winner would not only cement an Oscar nom, it would make it a definite front-runner in my eyes.
Best Director: Payne (He missed out for “Sideways”, and this seems like the right choice when the film as been universally well received by them. Runner-up is Malick, he has won one before and they love rewarding their favorite directors over and over again. Spoiler is Fincher since he won last year and his film was the last film they saw. If it’s good and he wins you can definitely make him the front-runner for the golden man this year.
Best Actor: Clooney (If you look at all the winners from the NYFCC in this category you realize those are all people who won or should’ve won Oscar.They name beasts and legends in here. With the best work from his career it will put him on the top of the pie. Runner-up Fassbender every once in a while they will reward the knockout performance of the year ala Heath Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain” or even Denzel Washington in “Malcom X”. Spoiler DiCaprio. You can say what you want about his film or the story but one thing is clear he is getting the nom and its possibly one of his best works. When the NYFCC decides to catapult someone they usually go big, remember Annette Benning last year.
Best Actress: Williams will win this. They seem to be awarding females with light roles of late, Benning, Streep, Hawkins. Williams was the toast of the NYFF. The film has been receiving great reception. This will be the beginning of her climb. Runner-up Streep. The “Iron Lady” screened specially for them. They may want to push her for that third Oscar again. Spoiler is Davis, like I said before they seem to be rewarding a lot of light roles in this category of late, she could hit and if she hits there is no stopping her.
Best Supporting Actors: This category can go many many different ways. But I think Branagh is going to win this one. Runner-up will be Plummer, while Brooks is the Spoiler.
Best Supporting Actress: Just like the previous category this one is still up in the air for many reasons. But after the huge praise Redgrave got from Times magazine I predict she will score here. Runner-up is Chastain for “Tree of Life” while Spence is the Spoiler.
I think Meryl could easily take this, NYFCC are gaga for her. Olivia Colman is the dark horse. Fassbender for actor?
I’ve never completely trusted critics to give insight on who will win at the oscars. I think they’re fun to follow but not to be taken seriously as an academy precursor. The only precursors we should take seriously are the SAG awards and the GUILDS. They’ve been pretty accurate in choosing noms and winners. That being said I am hoping Drive will recieve more attention from other critic groups. Sure it was a box office flop and it is arthouse but so is the Tree of Life and we can expect a lot of love for Terrence Malicks overstated film. So why not Drive. NYCC awards isn’t much a factor. Oh and to GL: No one cares to read your opinions when they’re have a page long. Ever hear of editing. Leave all the irrelevant bullshit out and keep it short.