The general Oscar prognostication consensus about ‘Drive’ has been for most of the season that it’s going to be one of the sadder snubs of the year at the Oscars, save for Albert Brooks in Best Supporting Actor. Ryan Gosling has a chance because of the year he’s having, but Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay has always seemed like wishful thinking, with the techs a question mark. I’m here to say that we might be underestimating this flick, and I’m pleased to write that it’s still in the race. Scott Feinberg recently tweeted his similar thoughts, writing “This may yet change, but I am now of the opinion that DRIVE will score a best picture Oscar nomination. I think it has 250 1st place votes.” This is something I’ve been saying for a bit, but always with a bit of hesitance, knowing the film was a longer shot than many others currently in the race. Passionately loved films like this could very well get the necessary 1st place votes to score a nomination, but if it doesn’t show up on any other ballots in the 2nd or 3rd slots, then it doesn’t have the widespread support it needs (more on this later). Despite not receiving a nomination from the Producer’s Guild, I see some Oscar love in this flick’s future.
The Academy has embraced bold films like this before, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t do so again. I’m all but positive it’ll never be able to get enough votes together to actually threaten to win Best Picture, but I think a nomination is well within its grasp. It’s got an incredible fan base at this point, probably more so than any other film in contention this year. While that doesn’t make for votes, it does make the flick more likely to be seen by those who might otherwise have skipped over it for more conventional Oscar fare. If you look at what’s been getting nominated in the past 5 years or so, there’s room for a film like ‘Drive’. Edgy and stylish fare like ‘Black Swan’ and ‘No Country for Old Man’ show that cool sometimes counts when it comes to non franchise fare. The Academy certainly could find that it’s not to their taste, but I’m looking at things and think that enough voters will feel like the critics have so far this year (myself included, as I named it my #1 film of 2011 here, and most of my colleagues cited it highly as well, not to mention you the readers) and write it in at #1 when doing their Oscar ballots. Let’s get into that now…
It’s going to come down to a few things for ‘Drive’ and it’s major Oscar chances, namely in the Best Picture field. You can somewhat disregard the strong presence it’s had on the precursor circuit since it’s mostly just been Critics Groups, and while they can influence voters, it hasn’t translated to the Guilds so far. This means that the fate of the film will be decided by if 250 members place the flick in their #1 spot, as well as how many people put it in the #2 or 3 slots. The new voting system pretty much means that your top 3 choices are the ones that really count, with few exceptions. The automatic nomination triggered by enough 1st place votes could benefit ‘Drive’, but if that doesn’t happen, I think plenty will have it as their 2nd or 3rd choice. Look at the other films that will have likely top pick love…there’s no abundance of them, so that benefits ‘Drive’. Besides ‘The Tree of Life’, no film will likely be on as many ballots as the #1 choice and left completely off of others, so it’ll just come down to how many passionate lovers they are. I think that there’s enough right now, and that could even help out the film in other places besides Best Picture.
Nicolas Winding Refn’s direction, Ryan Gosling’s lead performance, and Hossain Amini’s adaption of the novel could all stand to gain from this passion. I think Gosling could still get in regardless of Best Picture (though he could just as easily show up for ‘The Ides of March’ instead), but a big nomination like that could almost lock him in for a nod. Refn’s chances are tied in with the film itself. I think if the film gets in, then he’s one of the top 6 or 7 choices for Director, but if not…he’s a real long shot. The same goes for Amini’s screenplay, which could get in on its own, but will likely fall short without Best Picture. It’s essentially a domino effect, but I’d expect voters who love the film to support it all around and push it through. The other categories in play could include Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing, so keep that in mind as well.
Don’t assume I’m guaranteeing anything, since that’s a fool’s errand. The race has rarely been this unpredictable, and following along with what Oscar voters have been saying isn’t clearing things up at all. I’ve yet to get a consensus from the members I’ve talked to, and those who are on the internet tweeting aren’t unified around one film either. Just look at what filmmaker Rod Lurie recently tweeted. He wrote that he “Just filled out my Oscar ballot. Interesting how different my best picture list is from my best director list“. Think about what that means if enough people do that on their ballots. The prospect is certainly intriguing, but not necessarily beneficial to a film like ‘Drive’. We shall see…
In the end, it’s all just an educated guess right now. So much is still to be decided, and the voters of the Academy Awards do sometimes have a mind of their own, so one can only extrapolate so much from the critics groups supporting ‘Drive’. The fate of this particular flick is one of the more interesting storylines for this Oscar season, and I’ll be watching with baited breath. I know that many of you are pulling for the flick to score a whole host of nominations, and I’m with you there…I just want to stay objective. The evidence puts the flick kind of in an odd place, but still firmly in play for awards. Stay tuned for what happens, since it’s getting very interesting, to say the least!
-Thoughts? Discuss on the Forum!
George
January 11, 2012 at 6:21 pm
This is the exact reason I think Tree of Life will get a picture and director nomination. I would love to see Drive get a lot of love as well, especially Refn. His direction elevated Drive to another level.
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Joey Magidson
January 11, 2012 at 11:21 pm
They’re in a similar boat, but while I think there might be similar amounts of #1 votes, I don’t see The Tree of Life having enough #2 and #3 votes to save itself, but we’ll see.
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UBourgeois
January 11, 2012 at 6:30 pm
With Extremely Loud having turned out to be not quite the golden calf it was expected to be, I think that opens up room for Drive. As I can see, there are five likely BP nominations this year (The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Moneyball, The Help) with Drive joining the ranks of Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, War Horse, and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo for distinctly possible nominations. I think the enthusiasm held for it will be its biggest ally in this race. But like you said, assumptions really can’t be made.
As for director, there are three near-locks this year (Hazanavicius, Payne, and Scorsese) and a collection of other likely faces, namely Spielberg, Allen, Fincher, Malick, and Refn. Refn and Fincher are probably the least likely of the two to garner a nomination, but again the possibility is distinct. I do have to doubt Gosling’s chances for Best Actor, though. Race is tight this year.
I would love to see Drive get some nominations this year, and it seems like less of a long shot as time goes on.
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Marc Musto
January 11, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Completely agree with all points.
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Joey Magidson
January 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Pretty much…
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Michael Ward
January 11, 2012 at 9:23 pm
When faced with edgy, R-rated violent choices, the Guilds seem to have opted for Fincher as opposed to Refn. If a Best Picture nomination is going to happen for the hip and edgy spot, the Academy seems to be more inclined to reward someone many Academy members feel was wronged last year (Fincher) over the new buzzworthy but (in their view) unproven filmmaker (Refn).
Make no mistake, I would love to see DRIVE in a list of Best Picture nominees, but I think Fincher’s film has swooped in and stolen its thunder somewhat – if it was creating any storm at all.
Great piece Joey – as always!
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Joey Magidson
January 11, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Yes, the Guilds opting for Dragon Tattoo is notable (odd that Fincher would be the “safer” choice) and could end up being the reason Drive is excluded.
Thanks Mike!
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Alex LoSchiavo
January 11, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Drive definitely deserves it, but I’m not sure it will happen. I’ve said it on here before, but I think Drive will turn out to be like Fight Club. I think it would add more to it’s “cool” factor if it wasn’t nominated for BP or director. That being said, it would still be f*cking awesome if Drive got a BP and director nomination.
Plus, I don’t think the screenplay should be nominated. Well, not Amini shouldn’t get credit for the script. Refn and his actors pretty much revised and rewrote Amini’s script. For example, the kiss in the elevator wasn’t in the script. Refn and Gosling thought of that on set that day. Refn and Oscar Isaac rewrote Standard. Etc, etc, etc.
No matter what happens, in a few years Drive will be coveted and Refn will get a “please forgive us” oscar.
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Joey Magidson
January 11, 2012 at 11:29 pm
I wouldn’t doubt it…
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WillQ
January 11, 2012 at 10:04 pm
I don’t exactly see Drive as the second coming like some fans, but I do think it should get a nod for BP and most certainly for director. Cliff Martinez’s beautiful score being disqualified was a sign of things to come for this film unfortunately. I would still love a cinematography nod, in my opinion the best aspect of this movie besides Refn.
If Fincher can’t even get a “please forgive me Oscar” (which he should have twice over) it will be even harder for someone like Refn to get it. Drive will stay a cult classic, but as far as number 1 votes go, I see most voters going Malick’s way. His film has more superfans in the Academy than Drive’s I would wager, and will probably get some big nods because of it.
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Joey Magidson
January 11, 2012 at 11:31 pm
I think the opposite, but time will certainly tell…
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WillQ
January 12, 2012 at 8:08 pm
True Joey, I like the article by the way as I do all of yours. I would also add that because the actors make such an overwhelming majority of the voters, this will help Tree of Life as well. So many actors fall over each other to try and work with Malick, and those that have say nothing but praise. This revery may be a factor in terms of nominations I think.
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Joey Magidson
January 14, 2012 at 5:36 am
Thank you kindly.
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. I look at them as X factors.
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Tom Houseman
January 12, 2012 at 2:09 am
Joey, you don’t actually make any argument for Drive’s Oscar chances beyond “I really like Drive.” It got no love from the actors, no love from the directors, no love from the writers, no love from the cinematographers, no love from the art directors. The art directors, Joey!
Drive is a movie for fanboys, not for stodgy old white guys. It’s just not a movie they can get behind. Yes, there is a lot of internet buzz for it, but if that was going to translate to Oscar love we would have seen it with the guilds. If there were ten guaranteed nominees I still wouldn’t pick Drive to get in; I’d be more likely to fill my last couple of free spots with Bridesmaids, Tinker Tailor, or The Ides of March. Really all this talk about Drive amounts to nothing more than wishful thinking.
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Tom Houseman
January 12, 2012 at 2:14 am
Oh wait, it did get an ADG nom. Well, there goes my argument. Still, I think that getting overlooked by the DGA and the ASC is pretty damning for a film that’s that stylized.
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Joey Magidson
January 12, 2012 at 2:52 am
I wasn’t especially making a point beyond piggybacking off of Scott Feinberg’s tweet and talking about how its support might end up pushing it through, even though I freely admit it’s not exactly a likely occurrence.
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Jessie Makowski
January 13, 2012 at 11:32 pm
I just wish Ryan Gosling gets some recognition for the year that he’s having…
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Joey Magidson
January 14, 2012 at 5:48 am
One hopes, but it’s hard to say right now…
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