We’re fast approaching the Academy Award nominations.  It’s just a matter of days now, if you can believe it. As always, one can’t help but imagine what the snubs and surprises might be.  Oscar nomination morning never quite goes as you expect it to, that’s for sure. I fully expect there to be both surprises and snubs, as that’s the nature of the beast. I’m all but set on my final predictions, so I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about what might surprisingly be excluded or included. Below you’ll find one potential snub and one potential surprise for each of the major categories. Am I banking on any of them happening? No, but don’t completely discount them either.  This is the type of thing that you never can be sure of when it comes to the specifics, but in terms of broad strokes…you just know something is going to go down.  There’s an exciting aspect to not knowing, but I make my bones trying to deduce the method to the Academy’s madness, so here goes nothing!

Best Picture

Snub: War Horse doesn’t make the cut- 6 months ago, the sight unseen Best Picture favorite was Steven Spielberg’s ‘War Horse’. Fast forward to now and it just hasn’t made its mark on the race like we all thought it would have. If this wasn’t the film that it was, I’d say it’s already out of the race. As it stands, it’s likely making it as an almost filler pick, but wouldn’t it throw things for a loop if it fell short of the required first place votes? What was incomprehensible earlier this year is now a possibility next week.

Surprise: Both Bridesmaids and Drive make it in- Between ‘Bridesmaids’, ‘Drive’, and ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’, these 3 films appear to be fighting it out for one “edgy” slot in the Best Picture field. Dragon Tattoo is the most likely, but imagine if both of the “other” contenders wound up as the nominees instead? A large portion of the fans of the awards would rejoice.

Best Director

Snub: Steven Spielberg is excluded- Much like ‘War Horse’ is fading fast, The Beard has seen his chances at another Oscar win virtually evaporate. At this point, if one of the legends (him, Woody Allen, and Martin Scorsese) are to fall out of the race for a newer face (perhaps David Fincher?), he could very well be the one. I can actually see this happening, believe it or not…this isn’t quite the long shot snub one might have thought. Time will tell though…

Surprise: Tate Taylor is included- While Fincher is likely the beneficiary of someone falling off, don’t count out Taylor if ‘The Help’ really is a big hit with the Academy.

Best Actor

Snub: Michael Fassbender is omitted- One of the most pleasant stories of this Oscar season is how Fassbender’s naked (both emotionally and physically) performance was going from a long shot hopeful to a likely nominee. Perhaps we’ve overestimated his solid stature a bit though, and a more traditional nominee (like Leonardo DiCaprio for ‘J. Edgar’) steps in at the last moment. I certainly don’t want this to happen, but I’m aware of the possibility.

Surprise: Joseph Gordon-Levitt is welcomed to the club- If there’s room for a shocker nominee, JGL could be the one to benefit. The Original Screenplay is in play for a nom, and Gordon-Levitt has been on their radar before, so why not tap him now for the type of role that the Academy has gobbled up in the past?

Best Actress

Snub: Glenn Close is ignored- The acting is about the only thing that ‘Albert Nobbs’ has going for it, but what if that’s not enough for voters? Close has been a story to watch this season, but if they don’t like her performance enough, the Academy might opt to not just nominate her for the sake of nominating her.

Surprise: Kirsten Dunst isn’t- If Lars von Trier hadn’t decided to make his Cannes press conference about Nazis instead of ‘Melancholia’, I’d be likely writing about Dunst as a likely dark horse for Best Actress. Now, she’s more or less the #7 contender for a nod. If enough voters decide to honor her in spite of her director, she could easily slip in with a nomination at the 11th hour.

Best Supporting Actor

Snub: Albert Brooks is left out- At this point, Christopher Plummer is pretty much a shoo-in for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, but his main competition would seem to be Brooks. The thing is, Brooks’ performance in ‘Drive’ has been ignored here and there this season. I have this mild sinking feeling that the Academy could just forget to nominate him essentially. I hope it doesn’t occur, but don’t be too shocked if it somehow does.

Surprise: Andy Serkis breaks the barrier- I actually had Serkis getting nominated for exactly 13 days earlier this month, but have since backed off of that. I still maintain that if he does get the nod, it’ll be without any prior evidence, like the current situation. Don’t expect it to happen, but who knows?

Best Supporting Actress

Snub: Jessica Chastain splits the vote- Every few days I change my mind about if Chastain will suffer from a vote split or not. This is probably the most likely snub I’m writing about, and one we’ve all sort of considered since the season began. Especially if neither ‘The Help’ nor ‘The Tree of Life’ has widespread support, the epic year by Chastain may wind up to be in Oscar vain.

Surprise: Carey Mulligan manages not to- Between ‘Drive’ and more likely ‘Shame’, Mulligan has two performances that have appeal to voters. She’s this year’s most likely victim of a vote split, but perhaps a surprise could be in store for her? Especially if Chastain falls away, Mulligan could step right un.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Snub: War Horse continues to get left out- I know it’s a bit of a theme right now, but I really have no confidence in ‘War Horse’ outside of some technical categories. The script isn’t especially noteworthy, though it’s far from bad. The thing is, if it doesn’t inspire love from voters, they could opt to go in a different direction.

Surprise: Steven Zaillian is double nominated- The pickings in Adapted Screenplay are a little slimmer than usual this year, and it could allow for Zaillian to slip in twice. He’s all but locked for ‘Moneyball’, but maybe ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ gets enough votes too and Steve has one of the best mornings of anyone in Hollywood? Keep it in the back of your mind in the coming days.

Best Original Screenplay

Snub: 50/50 can’t make it to the final lap- After an early head start in the screenplay race, ’50/50′ hasn’t really been heard much from. I still think it’s going to wind up getting nominated due to its quality, but overcrowding and a forgetful Academy could lead to one of the most unfortunate snubs of the season.

Surprise: Beginners can- Best Original Screenplay has lots of films and only so many spots, so this can be a real hard category to predict. If a less talked about contender is to rise up with a bit of an under the radar nod, ‘Beginners’ and its originality could easily be the one. I’m actually predicting this one at the moment, so if you value my predictions, maybe keep an eye on this one as a potential surprise.

Best Animated Feature

Snub: Winnie the Pooh isn’t nominated- For my money, ‘Winnie the Pooh’ is the best animated flick of the year, but it hasn’t quite been rewarded as such. It could easily all add up to other cartoons getting the call instead of Pooh Bear. I don’t really know what to make of this category at the moment, so who’s to say right now?

Surprise: All the nominees are sequels- I honestly don’t see this one happening at all, but with this particular category, you never can tell. There’s a lot of sequels in the hopper right now, and they’re all on about similar footing, so something inexplicable like this could potentially wind up occurring. Honestly…who knows.

Now, don’t bank on any of these happening. These are just educated guesses, but something tells me the nominations aren’t going to go as we expect them too. I’m just trying to be ahead of the curve. In any event, I very much want to know what you all think. What snubs and surprises do you see happening next week? Bring it on!

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