Oscar Circuit: "What the Hell Just Happened" - Editors' Reactions - The Awards Circuit - By Clayton Davis

Oscar Circuit: “What the Hell Just Happened” – Editors’ Reactions

Wow…writing this up took all day. Just when we think we’ve figured the Academy out, they throw not just one wrench but many in the mix. Academy Award Nominee Jennifer Lawrence announced the nominees today along with AMPAS President Tom Sherak. Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo” led the nominations with eleven including Best Picture and Director and Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist” garnered ten nominations. Let’s breakdown each category and see what just happened here.

Best Motion Picture
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”

Predicted: 7 Nominees
Correctly Predicted by Ranking: 7 out of 9

• “The Artist” – #1
• “Hugo” – #2
• “The Descendants” – #3
• “Midnight in Paris” – #4
• “The Help” – #5
• “War Horse” – #6
• “The Tree of Life” – #7
• “Moneyball” – #10
• “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” – #14

Correctly Predicted by Actual: 6 films

Stephen Daldry must have video and naked photos of some Academy members. Just when you think he’s down and out, he makes a comeback unlike anything I’ve ever seen. “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” pulled in only two nominations but where it counted. Buzz had seemed like it subsided for Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball” and ended up showing up quite well. Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” didn’t receive any guild support but Malick is always in talks. Don’t ever count him out. The film pulled in three nominations. Missing the cut was David Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” which did receive guild support from Directors, Writers, and Producers Guild of America. The snub reminds me of Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight” who had the same type of showing that Fincher’s film did minus the Writers Guild and missed out on nomination morning.

Predicted Winner: “The Artist”

Best Achievement in Directing
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
Terrence Malick – “The Tree of Life”

Predicted: Hazanavicius, Scorsese, Malick, Allen, Spielberg
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

Terrence Malick busts through at the end of the day as expected. I couldn’t imagine the Academy not resisting the film and Malick’s direction. I also thought based on career prestige, the Academy wouldn’t pass on Steven Spielberg but they did. Eventually a love affair must end. I foolishly predicted a snub for Alexander Payne but given the nominees, I thought someone huge would miss. This seems to be a race between Hazanavicius vs. Scorsese vs. Malick believe it or not. Malick may have put himself in a prime position to finally gain an Oscar for Best Director. Scorsese has won before and Hazanavicius isn’t as well known or “due” by industry standards. It’s going to be a photo finish.

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Demian Bichir – “A Better Life”
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Gary Oldman – “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”

Predicted: Clooney, Dujardin, Fassbender, Pitt, Shannon
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

This is a double-edge sword. On one hand, I’m absolutely ecstatic that Demian Bichir made the cut for his raw and emotional performance in “A Better Life.” It’s deserved, worthy, and given the small release and nature of the film, it made a strong uphill climb for the mention. I’m glad Gary Oldman, after years of being ignored by the Academy gets his due for Best Actor. I’m not crazy about the choice of film but I’ll take it where I can get it. The absence of Michael Fassbender is THE big snub of the day for his work in Steve McQueen’s “Shame.” Not to mention McQueen and co-writer Abi Morgan would have made outstanding writing nominees. Fassbender gave for me, the single best performance of 2011 along with other stellar performances in the uneven “A Dangerous Method” and “Jane Eyre.” It can only point one thing out to me; the Academy members either didn’t watch the film or the NC-17 rating is too much for conservative, older voters. Simply sad. It still may be Clooney’s award to lose but Brad Pitt or Jean Dujardin can easily steal it away.

Predicted Winner: George Clooney for “The Descendants”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Rooney Mara – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams – “My Week with Marilyn”

Predicted: Close, Davis, Streep, Swinton, Williams
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

Poor Tilda Swinton. Woman cannot catch a break. Nature of “We Need to Talk About Kevin” may have been too much. All the guild support explains the Rooney Mara nomination. She does give an acceptable performance. I’ll admit, I prefer Noomi Rapace any day of the week. I knew “Albert Nobbs” and Glenn Close were too strong and with the SAG nomination, she was a shoo-in. The only thing now is who wins the Oscar. Globe went to Meryl and Michelle. BFCA went to Viola. SAG will be truly telling but I suspect a Glenn Close win. That would make for an interesting race. Close hasn’t won and veteran votes may start going her way. Watch out! Sad for Elizabeth Olsen and Adepero Oduye who didn’t stand a chance.

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close for “Albert Nobbs”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week with Marilyn”
Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte – “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
Max Von Sydow – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Predicted: Branagh, Brooks, Hill, Nolte, Plummer
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

No Albert Brooks or love for “Drive” for that matter. The SAG snub really did mean a lot. Chalk up to people not liking Brooks or the Academy’s mundane nature; it just wasn’t their cup of tea. I’m actually not that upset about it. It’s a decent enough work but not the year’s best supporting turn. An observation that needs to be made is Max Von Sydow finally broke through and along with his film is nominated for an Oscar. Think about Sandra Bullock when she was nominated and eventually won for “The Blind Side.” That Best Picture boost was all she needed to solidify herself as the winner. Not only did the Academy love “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” but they cited a performer. This could spell D-O-O-M for Christopher Plummer. His film “Beginners” only has the nomination for him and without at least a screenplay nod, the film stands on Plummer’s shoulders alone for recognition. It’s the battle of the veterans it seems this year. Plummer’s Oscar isn’t as sewn up as once thought. In the event of a vote split, Kenneth Branagh could benefit and score an Oscar. Nolte and Hill are going to have to just enjoy the show. I like this batch of nominees I have to admit. I would have loved to see Patton Oswalt or Ezra Miller make a play but they were long shots at best all season.

Predicted Winner: Max Von Sydow for “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo – “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”

Predicted: Bejo, Chastain, McCarthy, McTeer, Spencer
Correctly Predicted: 5 out 5! YAY!

I knew the power of Janet McTeer would pull through. Shailene Woodley is left off, which I think is a sign of weakness for “The Descendants.” It’s a shame, no pun intended, that Carey Mulligan didn’t pull in a mention for her works in either “Drive” or “Shame.” She was on her game this year in a big way and out did herself especially after her breakthrough in “An Education.” Too bad Anjelica Huston never picked up any steam. Same for Judy Greer. The overestimation for the love for “The Help” makes me wonder if Octavia Spencer really is the frontrunner. Bejo and/or Chastain could give a run for the money. Who knows? Maybe we’re in store for another Marisa Tomei-like win for Melissa McCarthy.

Predicted Winner: Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids”

Best Original Screenplay
“The Artist”
“Bridesmaids”
“Margin Call”
“Midnight in Paris”
“A Separation”

Predicted: 50/50, The Artist, Beginners, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

I want to kick myself. I should have stuck with “A Separation.” It was too unique and dynamic to go unrecognized by the branch. What we thought could be a comedy heavy category turned out to be typical Academy. Love Bridesmaids here! “Margin Call” had been creeping up for weeks so it’s not entirely surprising it made it. The Artist vs. Midnight in Paris for the win.

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Descendants”
“Hugo”
“The Ides of March”
“Moneyball”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Predicted: The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

I felt the resurgence of “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” coming back in the weeks leading up to the nominations. I never knew it translate also for Gary Oldman. “The Descendants” and “Moneyball” were expected and will battle it out for the Oscar. John Logan’s “Hugo” has a fighting chance given it is the most nominated film of the bunch. George Clooney and his writing team will have to accept the nomination as the reward. Saddened for “The Help” which an omission here shows its weakness overall.

Predicted Winner: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin for “Moneyball”

Best Animated Feature
“A Cat in Paris”
“Chico & Rita”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”

Predicted: Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Winnie the Pooh, Rango
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

I knew “The Adventures of Tintin” would have a hard time being recognized for the simple fact, voters of the Branch have stated, motion capture is NOT animation. Whether it’s true or not, I don’t know. If Spielberg can’t change their minds, who can? This is “Rango” all the way. I can’t imagine anything else. I have to see “A Cat in Paris” and “Chico & Rita.” Why no “Winnie the Pooh?” or “Arthur Christmas,” the best animated film of the year?

Predicted Winner: “Rango”

Best Achievement in Art Direction
“The Artist” Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Hugo” Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“Midnight in Paris” Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
“War Horse” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Predicted: Anonymous, The Artist, Harry Potter, Hugo, Jane Eyre
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

Love the recognition for “Hugo” and “The Artist.” I found “Midnight in Paris” completely worthy of citation but didn’t think it had the gumption to go the distance. Same goes for “War Horse.” The Academy loves their period pieces so I felt films like “Jane Eyre” and “Anonymous” would be a favorite here. “The Artist” and “Hugo” will fight this one out unless the Academy is feeling inclined to reward one of the highest grossing franchises in history.

Predicted Winner: “Hugo”

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Guillaume Schiffman – “The Artist”
Jeff Cronenweth – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Robert Richardson – “Hugo”
Emmanuel Lubezski – “The Tree of Life”
Janusz Kaminski – “War Horse”

Predicted: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Tree of Life
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

I will say this is a VERY strong list of nominees. Emmanuel Lubezski is the one to beat and when I thought he couldn’t top his outstanding work on “Children of Men,” “The Tree of Life” elevates the highest level of craftsmanship. Robert Richardson is a potential spoiler for doing outstanding work on “Hugo” as well as Janusz Kaminski who’s “The Diving Bell & the Butterfly” was a notch above his work on “War Horse.” I thought the Cinematography guild would translate for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and it even though it was a long shot, you can’t deny the beautiful camera work on “Drive,” which got the finger from the Academy today.

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki for “The Tree of Life”

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Lisy Christl for “Anonymous”
Mark Bridges for “The Artist”
Sandy Powell for “Hugo”
Michael O’Connor for “Jane Eyre”
Arianne Phillips for “W.E.”

Predicted: The Artist, The Help, Hugo, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

I thought the costumes in “My Week with Marilyn” were one of the strongest aspects of the film. Shame it wasn’t nominated. I thought “The Help” could find its way here, especially for Jessica Chastain’s hot little bathing suit. But I guess not. I think this has been Michael O’Connor’s for sometime but with Mark Bridges closing in behind for “The Artist,” he could lose his award.

Predicted Winner: Michael O’Connor for “Jane Eyre”

Best Achievement in Film Editing
Anne-Sophie Bion & Michael Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Kevin Tent – “The Descendants”
Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Thelma Schoonmaker – “Hugo”
Christopher Tellefsen – “Moneyball”

Predicted: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, War Horse
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

Michael Kahn misses out in the end for “War Horse” in place for Christopher Tellefsen for “Moneyball.” Some may not be too surprised by that given the latter was recognized the Editing Guild but worse things have happened. I think this is definitely “The Artist” all the way with a possible “Hugo” in the background. Another snub for “Drive” seen here given it was the most evenly paced film of the year.

Predicted Winner: Anne-Sophie Bion & Michael Hazanavicius for “The Artist”

Best Music (Original Score)
John Williams – “The Adventures of Tintin”
Ludovic Bource – “The Artist”
Howard Shore – “Hugo”
Alberto Iglesias – “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
John Williams – “War Horse”

Predicted: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse
Correctly Predicted: 4 out of 5

Didn’t see the double nominations for John Williams coming at all. I thought the branch would commit to either one or the other. Given the goodwill leftover for “The Social Network,” I thought Trent Reznor and Atticuss Ross could do it again. Ludovic Bource has been winning this award left and right including the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. Alexandre Desplat’s omission and disqualification for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life” is disheartening. Whoever wins this year, they have Desplat’s Oscar.

Predicted Winner: Ludovic Bource for “The Artist”

Best Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from “Rio” Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Predicted: 1 of the 2 songs nominated (“Man or Muppet”)

So they passed over Glenn Close’s song from “Albert Nobbs” and Mary J. Blige’s “The Living Proof” from “The Help” in favor of “Real in Rio?” Ok, this branch confuses me and I think they need to change their voting system. 2 nominees are ridiculous. It is glad to see “The Muppets” make it regardless.

Predicted Winner: “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
“Hugo” – Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
“Moneyball” – Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
“War Horse” – Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

Predicted: Hugo, Pirates of the Caribbean, Super 8, Transformers, War Horse
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

Where the hell is “Super 8?” That train crash sequence was incredible. Why is the sound good in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?” This category seems kind of bogus. Maybe they’re looking to finally recognize Greg P. Russell and his sound team after missing offensively for the first “Transformers.” I think the “Hugo” team will give them a run for their money. That train blasting through the station sequence was an audible masterpiece.

Predicted Winner: “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
“Drive” – Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – Ren Klyce
“Hugo” – Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
“War Horse” – Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

Predicted: Harry Potter, Mission: Impossible, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Super 8, War Horse
Correctly Predicted: 1 out of 5

My worst category predicted ladies and gentleman. I thought “Harry” would show up in more categories than it did. “Mission: Impossible” did really well with critics and audiences so I assumed it had a shot. “Planet of the Apes” seemed like a safe bet. “Super 8” got the middle finger. I guess…I’m sorry?

Predicted Winner: “Hugo” – Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty

Best Achievement in Makeup
“Albert Nobbs” – Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ – Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Iron Lady” – Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Predicted: The Artist, The Iron Lady, Harry Potter
Correctly Predicted: 2 out of 3

I had a feeling Glenn Close’s boy-on-girl makeup would be acceptable for the Academy. I dropped in favor of frontrunner “The Artist” which I thought would be making a strong play. I think Meryl’s aging makeup in “The Iron Lady” may be strong enough to get across the finish line but you can’t deny Ralph Fiennes’ Voldemort was not some of the best work of the franchise.

Predicted Winner: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ – Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ – Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
“Hugo” – Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
“Real Steel” – Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

Predicted: Captain America, Harry Potter, Hugo, The Tree of Life, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

“The Tree of Life” missing this nomination is simply horse manure, no doubt about it. The “Rock Em’-Sock Em’” robots of “Real Steel” was surprising given the poor reception to the film. I thought “Captain America” would have a shot at a mention but I was wrong. “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” has had this sewn up for months but so did “Transformers” and it lost to “The Golden Compass.”

Predicted Winner: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett

Best Foreign Language Film
“Bullhead” from Belgium
“Footnote” from Israel
“In Darkness” from Poland
“Monsieur Lazhar” from Canada
“A Separation” from Iran

Predicted: In Darkness, Pina, Omar Killed Me, Monsieur Lazhar, A Separation
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

“Pina” was the big miss here. “A Separation” wins especially given the screenplay nomination but crazier things have happened here. Can anyone remember “The Lives of Others” over “Pan’s Labyrinth?”

Predicted Winner: “A Separation” from Iran

Best Documentary Feature
“Hell and Back Again” – Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” – Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” – Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Pina” – Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
“Undefeated” – TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Predicted: Project Nim, Pina, Paradise Lost 3, Hell and Back Again, Bill Cunningham
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5

“Project Nim” missing the nomination was very surprising since it had been considered the favorite for a while. “Pina” or “Paradise Lost 3” may fill those shoes accordingly.

Predicted Winner: “Pina”

The Rest of the Categories Listed Below were all Guess Work:

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement” – Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
“God Is the Bigger Elvis” – Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
“Incident in New Baghdad” – James Spione
“Saving Face” – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” – Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Predicted: God is the Bigger Elvis, Incident in New Baghdad, Pipe Dreams, In Tahrir Square, Witness
Correctly Predicted: 2 out of 5
Predicted Winner: “God is the Bigger Elvis”

Best Animated Short Subject
“Dimanche/Sunday” – Patrick Doyon
“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore” – William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
“La Luna” – Enrico Casarosa
“A Morning Stroll” – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
“Wild Life” – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Predicted: The Fantastic Flying Books, La Luna, Magic Piano, Paths of Hate, I Tawt I Taw a Puddy Tat
Correctly Predicted: 2 out of 5
Predicted Winner: “La Luna”

Best Live Action Short Subject
“Pentecost” – Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
“Raju” – Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
“The Shore” – Terry George and Oorlagh George
“Time Freak” – Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
“Tuba Atlantic” – Hallvar Witzø

Predicted: Love at First Sight, Pentecost, Raju, Sailcloth, The Shore
Correctly Predicted: 3 out of 5
Predicted Winner: “The Shore”

Comment and discuss the nominees!

Clayton Davis (1579 Posts)

Clayton Davis is the respected and esteemed AwardsCircuit.com editor. Clayton has become a proud member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to awards season show, The Critics Choice Movie Awards. Most recently, Clayton is a now an active member of the International Press Academy, which hosts the popular Satellite Awards as well as the newly integrated Broadcast Television Journalists Association, which hosts the Critics Choice Television Awards.

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  • UBourgeois

    I have to disagree with some of your acting predictions. I don’t know who exactly will win Best Actress (my best guess is Davis) but I’m certain Close will not win. Which is sad, because now all they’ve done is give her another not-win. As for the Supporting Actor, I am still quite adamant in thinking that Plummer will win, but this is as much out of spite for Extremely Loud as it is for any real reasons. I really don’t see Von Sydow winning anyway, though. I’m also confused at how you claim Von Sydow has some extra strength here because ELIC was nominated for Best Picture, but the ladies of The Help are at a disadvantage because of the lack of screenplay nod – it’s not consistent reasoning.

    And as much as I would love McCarthy to get the Oscar, I won’t let myself think it’s going to happen. I do, in the back of my mind, hope you’re right, though.

  • nic

    there is a difference in The Help and Extremely Loud.

    The Help is one of the biggest hits of the year and has racked up a lot of rewards up until now. It really should have come up with a lot more nominations. That shows weakness given how popular the film is.

    Extremely Loud popping up here is with nearly zero critical or awards support.

    • UBourgeois

      True, however the nominations and wins throughout the season for The Help have been almost entirely for acting categories or best picture, which mirrors its nominations at the academy. 4 nominations hardly signals weakness in popularity, so I don’t see why David, Spencer, and Chastain should be seen as losing favor just because director or screenplay nominations didn’t happen, especially since the former especially was never very likely.

      Just because ELIC has little precedent this season for nominations doesn’t mean it’s particularly likely to win in either of its two categories. That simply doesn’t follow.

      • UBourgeois

        *Davis

  • Holden

    Your logic for Max Von Sidow is flawed for at least one key reasoning. You’re claiming that Bullock’s win for The Blind Side was cemented by her film being nominated for Best Picture. While this certainly did not hurt her, and as I recall, Bullock was already poised as the frontrunner before the nominations had come out. She had won the Critics’ Choice, I believe the Golden Globe, and perhaps the SAG. Sidow has no such record. He has no major citation outside of this award. In fact, I’d liken his nomination to Maggie Gyllenhaal’s mention for Crazy Heart (which I personally still cannot believe happened.) Either way, Plummer is still the leader of his category, especially with the wrongfully snubbed Brooks completely shut out.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=26801810 Clayton Davis

      I have one name for you…Marcia Gay Harden.

      • Holden

        I’d argue that to be no more than a fluke. Nonetheless, I suppose that’s a fair call.

  • Kevin

    Drive being completely snubbed reminds me of The Town last year. Should have gotten all the major nominations(picture, director, actor). Unfortunately Drive wasn’t lucky enough to at least get the best supporting nod.

    I also think Gary Oldman has a very good shot at winning. Unlike last year, the best actor win is still up for grabs. I won’t be too surprised if Oldman can finally pull it off.

  • http://twitter.com/dperez219 David Perez

    Thanks for the breakdown! This fascination with “The Help” and “The Artist” is ridiculous in a year with such great movies and performances. Most notable snubs for me are: Best Actor – Fassbender (Shame), and Shannon (Take Shelter); Best Actress – Olsen (Marcy May), Dunst (Melancholia), Swinton (Talk About Kevin); Best Supporting Actor (Brooks!); Best Supporting Actress: Mulligan (Drive, Shame). Also Drive for Best Picture and not even nominated for Best Soundtrack!? CMON!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1279582707 Ryman Lloyd

    Dude, I thought Albert Brooks gave THE BEST performance of the year. How could you not be upset about that?

  • https://www.google.com/profiles/101084515269185543619 curtisjdunn

    couldn’t Brooks’s “snub” have something to do with him being a villain? with the exception of last year (though both Leo and Bale were deterrents to the hero), we have seen so many villains win. Waltz and Mo’Nique (2009), Ledger (and even in a certain sense Cruz) (2008), Bardem (and again somewhat Swinton) (2007).. Not to mention even just nominees (Hawkes, Tucci, Brolin, Affleck, or even one of my favorite anti-heroes Saoirse Ronan).

  • https://www.google.com/profiles/110491698735325032946 sc62788

    Or maybe, just maybe, voters weren’t as impressed with Drive as critics and people on this board were. You’re talking about a voting group who are pretty old. The number of voters under 50 has to be swamped by the number of voters over 50 still.

  • Mikael

    Very nice article, Clayton!
    Can you imagine Close, Von Sydow and McCarthy winning!? That would fun, actually…

    Go Meryl!!!

  • jmlatinsir2

    The case for Drive. I loved Drive. I thought it was beautifully directed, great style, well acted and photograph. I think it will be a cult movie and with time it will gain a lot of prestige. The Academy is short-sighted as we have seen in their questionable selections in years past (Dr. Doolittle for best picture?????? That was laughable). What I think Drive lacked in enticing the Academy was “substance”. It wasn’t about anything in particular. It had no message, it didn’t deal with a serious topical subject matter. This is not a criticism of the movie on my part, but rather my take on why the Academy overlooked it.

    As for the best actress, I’m rooting for Meryl Streep all the way. My consolation price would be the overlooked Glen Close. I think this is one of the less predictable categories that can have a lot of vote splitting and we might wind up with a dark horse winning the race.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=8835507 Stephen Wagner

    Didn’t think he ever had a real shot, but it’s still disapointing to see Andy Serkis get the shaft. If the voters don’t see motion capture as animation, then what is it? Serkis has been doing incredible work with motion capture for 10 years now. Hopefully he’ll get recognized one of these days.

  • Cappy

    I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure a LOT of people can remember The Lives of Others as being better than Pan’s Labyrinth.