Oscar 2012 Will Win/Should Win Selections (Belickis)

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It’s the most wonderful time of the year… Well, stressful at the same time but hey, it’s the Oscar’s. Now that the Oscar’s are less than a week away all of us here at the Awards Circuit are scratching our heads trying to figure who the winners will be while wishing our favorites *cough* Melissa McCarthy *cough* will win. Our predictions change daily and it’s never actually final until the moment before the envelope is opened revealing the winner. But while it’s always so stressful making the final decision, it’s always so much fun.

Here are my final predictions for the winners of the Academy Awards.

Best Picture:
Will Win: The Artist has been a non-stop roller-coaster since it was screened at Cannes and I don’t see any movie stopping it from winning Best Picture.
Should Win: The Artist is a beautiful commentary of the evolution of  film and I enjoyed it very much but I don’t think it’s the best picture of the year. I think because it is a silent black & white film, people are making too big of a deal out of it. Having studied silent film, if The Artist would have come out in the silent era it would have been played off as just another entertaining flick on the same level of Chaplin’s work.
I feel The Help, Moneyball, Hugo and Extremely Loud and Incredible Close are the better films of the nominated nine. The Help has an amazing cast, a genuine story and a touch of heart that makes it great. Hugo is just amazingly filmed and the true love letter to film. No one can deny that Moneyball has one of the best scripts written of the year. The acting is impeccable and even if you don’t like baseball the story never loses your attention. Lastly, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is the “Oscar” film but it never failed to disappoint. And the story of how lives are affected by such a tragic event was done in such a touching way that it never once made mockery of 9/11. The story focused on the aftermath of 9/11 as opposed to other films where it’s only about the towers collapsing.
But my vote for Best Picture goes to The Help.
Snubs: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Shame, Warrior.

Best Director:
Will Win: Michael Hazanavicius took home the DGA and Scorsese took home the Golden Globe. It’s tradition that whichever director wins the DGA will win Best Director. Since last year Fincher won Globe and Hooper won DGA and Hooper ended up taking the Oscar, I’m going to go with history and say Michael Hazanavicius.
Should Win: I’m not on the Terrence Malick bandwagon so, don’t expect me to sit here and idolize The Tree of Life and what a “visual masterpiece” it was because honestly, it was crap. “Oh my god, did she say that?” I did. Leave your comments below. But out of all of the directors nominated I can’t seem to figure out which director deserves the Oscar more. But in the end my decision lies with Martin Scorsese for making a truly remarkably alluring film.
Snubs: Stephen Daldry- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, David Fincher- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steve McQueen- Shame

Best Actor:
Will Win: Michael Fassbender… Oh, wait. This is the part of the Oscar’s that gives me a headache… like a big one. There are two obvious frontrunners and one I don’t want to see win and the other I wouldn’t mind winning. George Clooney has won every major award except for SAG and BAFTA, which could be considered the two most important awards. Clooney is the nominee I don’t want to see win. I don’t think he has any versatility and he is the same in every movie, the only thing that’s different is the name of his character. A part of me feels that Clooney could win because he’s been nominated previously for Actor, Director, screenplay and won previously for Supporting Actor and also scored a surprising nomination for The Ides of March this year. For whatever reason people love him and everybody in Hollywood adores him. Part of me feels that Jean Dujardin could win because of his BAFTA, SAG, and Globe win and because The Artist is the frontrunner. So, my decision lies with Jean Dujardin. Let’s hope I’m not wrong.
Should Win: Brad Pitt. I’m not the biggest Pitt fan but he gave one of the best performances of the year playing Billy Bean in Moneyball. I can’t imagine any other actor playing Billy Bean as accurate as Pitt did and he deserves to be rewarded for playing such an incredibly demanding role. Pitt was focused, vulnerable, emotional and sensational and it was so refreshing to watch. This is Brad Pitt’s career best and it’s a damn shame he has no chance of winning that Oscar.
Snubs: Michael Fassbender- Shame… Hello. Joseph Gordon-Levitt- 50/50, Tom Hardy- Warrior, Thomas Horn- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Best Actress:
Will Win: This award will go to Viola Davis. Only two actresses can cause an upset for her; Meryl Streep and Glenn Close. Glenn Close hasn’t won anything for Albert Nobbs and if she wins it will only be a career, sympathy win. As far as Meryl Streep goes, there is always a fear that she will win each year she is nominated because she is the best actress of the bunch, but this is not her year to win her third statue.
Should Win: Viola Davis. She gave a powerhouse performance that was backed with heartbreak and pain. You felt every word she said and every word she didn’t. This is her award to win, not one nominee deserves to take that away from her.
Snubs: Charlize Theron- Young Adult.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christopher Plummer seems to be the nominee taking home the Oscar in this category. He has won every major award thus far and I don’t see any other actor stopping him.
Should Win: Max Von Sydow. I watched Beginners and didn’t love it like I hoped to. The same goes for Christopher Plummer’s performance. It bothers me when this category honors veterans when they don’t deserve it and I don’t think this role is the one Christopher Plummer deserves to win for. He gave a better performance in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Max Von Sydow’s performance in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was exquisite. Jonah Hill was originally my favorite to win but after seeing Close, Sydow won me over. Sydow makes every second of his wordless appearance count as he joins Oskar on his journey.
Snubs: Albert Brooks- Drive, Patton Oswalt- Young Adult, Alan Rickman- Harry Potter.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA wins puts Octavia Spencer in position to win her first Oscar.
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy is one of the nicest people off screen, but when that camera turns on she has the dirtiest mouth. So it made sense why this role fit her like a glove. A lot of people have made remark that Bridesmaids proved women are funny, but this movie reminded people that this is how women are. We are as dirty and crude as the next person and people like Megan exist everywhere. McCarthy stole the show with her outrageous antics, incredibly high self-esteem and a bluntness that made you sit back and wonder if she really said what she said. Kristen Wiig wrote a good character, but McCarthy made it great and deserves to win that Oscar.
Snubs: Sandra Bullock- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Anjelica Houston- 50/50, Bryce Dallas Howard- The Help

And now, the rest of the minor categories for the 84th Academy Awards:

Best Animated Feature Film:
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: The Tree of Life
Should Win: Hugo

Best Art Direction:
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo

Best Costume Design:
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Jane Eyre

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: Pina
Should Win: Hell and Back Again

Best Documentary Short Subject:
Will Win: Incident in New Baghdad
Should Win: Incident in New Baghdad

Best Film Editing:
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: A Separation
Should Win: A Separation

Best Makeup:
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Original Score:
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Artist

Best Original Song:
Will Win: “Man or Muppet,” The Muppets
Should Win: “Man or Muppet,” The Muppets

Best Animated Short Film:
Will Win: La Luna
Should Win: La Luna

Best Live Action Short Film:
Will Win: Time Freak
Should Win: Raju

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: Bridesmaids

Now that that’s over, I’m going to take a few Advil and bite my finger nails doubting my decisions until Oscar night.

  • Eric McCainley

    I agree about Malick and George Clooney too…

    • Glad to know we share similar opinons about those two filmmakers

  • Brandon Isaacson

    Why Time Freak? That’s the only one I’ve seen and it does not seem like something the Academy would vote for. Thoughts? Also why La Luna & not Flying Books?

    • I’m not going to lie, I haven’t seen any of the shorts, and I chose them because of what my colleagues thought of each film. I’m sorry I can’t give you an answer.

  • Brad Pitt’s role was demanding? Must have looked deceptively easy. I would have no problem in him winning over Clooney certainly, though I wish he never made that retirement statement, he wants this really badly (they all do really of course, even the faux nonchalant Clooney). Dujardin ftw though, I’d love to see those two’s faces.

    I’m not sure if Thomas Horn was a snub, a good child performance certainly but the character as written was really annoying. I couldn’t believe how bad this film was, it deserves all the flack and more. And really Von Sydow seems the filler slot to me, I’m glad he got the nomination as there wasn’t really much better in that, which was the weakest category. I did love Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method though.

    The snubs still hurt: Fassbender, Shannon, Theron and I’m still annoyed about Rooney (admittedly good performance, but Oscar worthy?) and Close hogging a slot for a film 4 people saw. Elizabeth Olsen missing out amidst all that (especially now I’ve seen it) was a tragedy.

    • Thomas

      It is VERY fair to say Anna LOVED Loud & Close. I found Horn to be insufferable (but that is just me) — you’ve given him more credit than I do. 🙂

      • I did love Loud & Close. I found it very moving, I also found Horn’s performance to be rather brilliant especially for a child with no acting background. He blew me away. But we all feel differently about the film.

    • I agree that supporting is the weakest category this year. I was very excited with Jonah Hill’s nomination but other than that, I’m completely underwhelmed.

      I think Rooney deserved the nomination because she was Lisabeth Salander, yet the way she’s been all oscar season has been a huge turn off for me. She’s been very arragont with the press. I just hope she is at least somewhat alive for the Oscar telecast. But I won’t lie, I would have rather seen Theron nominated instead of Glenn Close. But the Fassbender snub did hurt. My jaw dropped when he missed the nomination.

  • George

    I couldn’t disagree more with all of your opinions about the Oscars and movies nominated. Bridesmaids should win screenplay over Midnight in Paris? Oh wow. Also, could you sound more elitist in your opinion of The Artist? “Having studied silent film…” give me a break. It’s a fantastic movie and it doesn’t seem like you can handle that a simple, enjoyable movie like The Artist will probably win best picture. Also with The Tree of Life, if nothing else it IS a visual masterpiece. It’s a beautiful movie and many people have complained about this or that about it, but no one can deny the beauty of it. And Von Sydow should win over Plummer… that’s a joke right?

  • Phill Milner

    I agree with you on the Tree of Life. It was a gorgeous movie, and had potential to be a great movie, but the storytelling was awful. I also agree with you on The Artist. In todays age, it might seem like a great movie (I really enjoyed it and have it ranked 3rd in my top 10), but if it were released in the silent film era, it would have just been another movie.

    I disagree with all of your opinions on Extrememly Loud and Incredibly Close. The movie wasn’t terrible, but definatley not worth any nominatioin that it recieved or what you think it was snubbed for.

    Everyone has their opinions though. I’m assuming that because you didn’t mention Drive for Picture snub, or Refn (Who I thought was a clear winner for best director) for director snub shows that you aren’t a drive fan.

    • I’m glad to see we are in agreement about The Artist.

      The dissagreements on Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close seem to be a popular thing on this post. But it is true, we all have different feelings on the film… you either love it or you hate it and there is no in between. I happened to love it but that’s just me.

      I wasn’t a fan of Drive. The first time I saw it I thought it was alright, but then the second time I watched it I hated it and found many flaws to it. But I do agree that Refn’s direction was quite amazing, that was one of things I loved about the film.

  • Thomas

    Okay, Anna, you don’t have to like George Clooney … nobody is making you; but to discount the last scene of The Descendants and say “George is always the same” is ridiculous.

    I’m agreeing with George here. I’m not sure if this is a serious post or not.

    And also — edit.

    • Thomas

      I guess not the final scene of the movie; but the last scene in the hospital. His goodbye was honestly depicted and the best thing Clooney has done in recent years.

  • sc62788

    The last scene of The Descendants was the one I believed the least. I’m all for the Oscar not going to George Clooney this time, he isn’t always the same (that’s why he has one for Syriana), but this is the same performance he has been giving the last few years. I will always cheer for Malick and I think this would be the time to give him one. I have to disagree with almost any win for Hugo…it just doesn’t hold a candle to the visuals of ToL. The story is about as deep as a frying pan and as boring as a lecture on film preservation (b/c it is one in the end). Not saying ToL is the best of the nine for a win, that actually would be The Artist from a purely entertaining aspect, but ToL has more going on in it than any of the other ones. I just enjoyed being made to think for once as opposed to accepting white washed history (The Help) or being cued when to emote (War Horse…EL&IC). The movies this year aren’t bad, they’re just not all masterpieces, but when are they ever?

    • Noted. I have said this all year that I haven’t seen a movie this year that has taken my breath away or one I could even sit back and give 4 stars to.

  • Massimo

    Points in this article that i agree with:

    – christopher plummer shouldn’t win
    -max von sydow should win suppoting actor
    -george clooney plays the same character in every movie
    – hugo, moneyball, extremely loud & incredibly close are the best of the 9 nominated (ToL aswell)
    -brad pitt should win best actor

    Points in this article that i disagree with:

    – “ToL is crap” (the comment was funny though)
    – melissa mccarthy should win (what exactly did she do that seth rogen didnt do in 50/50, the answer is nothing)
    – viola davis should win, as great as she was meryl was better

    • Glad to see we are in agreement with quite a few points I made. I am torn with the Viola Davis and Meryl Streep win, but I guess we’ll see what happnes Oscar night.

  • Jed Bookout

    I totally hate ToL, too! I also totally hate Extremely Loud just a little bit more. This makes me feel conflicted.

  • Laura

    Anna while I agree with you about Clooney and The Artist being overrated, you desperately need help on the other choices. Extremely and Incredibly Close was a major disappointment considering how good the novel was. The book was incredible, while the movie is very uneven and seems to reply on emotional ploys to win the audience. It’s a disastrous film from start to finish and a very poorly executed. I would like to understand why you like the film so much. I cannot seem to grasp why critics would choose this over many, many more qualified films. Sandra Bullock is unbearable to watch. She cannot ask and shouldn’t have been nominated for her performance in The Blind Side, let alone win. Thomas Horn was very subpar. He is highly overratedAnd don’t get me started on Max Von Sydow. He’s just doing a cameo, and very upset the Academy nominated him. Christopher Plummer gives one of the finest performances ever captured on film, and Von Sydow’s joke of a performance better not take away Plummer’s much deserved Oscar. Anna you don’t seem to see that because you seem to lack a good perception on what a good film or performance is. I don’t mean that to be rude, but it’s true. And I am not criticizing you, I am just pointing out our difference in opinions. And Melissa McCarthy over Octavia Spencer? Viola Davis over Meryl Streep or Michelle Williams? But I do appreciate making note of Alan Rickman, Tom Hardy, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and most importantly Charlize Theron and the best actor of the year Michael Fassbender. Albert Brooks is not a snub. There’s way to much hype about his performance. I loved Drive, but he was the worst part of a great film. Carrey Mulligan and Ryan Gosling gave amazing performances. They were snubbed as was Armie Hamer for J. Edgar, Michael Shannon for Take Shelter, Tom Cullen for Weekend (SECOND IN MY BOOK TO MICHAEL FASSBENDER’S PERFORMANCE), Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk about Kevin, Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy Marlene May, Jim Broadbent for the Iron Lady, and the true best supporting actress of the year Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus. But thank you Anna for sharing your opinions! I truly enjoyed it as I do with your other pieces! Keep up the good work!

    • I found the execution in EL&IC to be quite beautiful. I think Hollywood has tried very hard to make a good 9/11 movie and Stephen Daldry finally did it without making it out to be some romance flick that involves the towers collapsing. It was touching without throwing the tragedy in your face, and it focused on Oskar and his suffering. I appreciated the film and found it quite moving but it is a common comment on this post where many don’t see the film in the same way I do. But that’s ok, I didn’t expect many to be in agreement with me on the film.

  • Divya

    ” ‘Bridesmaids’ reminded people that this is how women are. We are as dirty and crude as the next person…”

    Anna, I can honestly say that I’m a woman, and I have NEVER ever pooped in the sink, and I have NEVER ever crapped in the middle of the road. Maybe YOU have pooped in the sink, AND you have also crapped in the middle of the road (in your underwear) at some point in your life. Which is why, you can relate so well to ‘Bridesmaids’.

    • Was that really all you took from Bridesmaids? That women shit in the street and sinks? If that is really all you took from the film maybe you should go back and re-watch it, because there is a lot more to it than that.

  • Johnny

    Great analysis, Anna!

    Completely agree about Clooney! It makes me shake my head when people say he was cast “against type” because he had to play a father…because playing a father is soooo difficult…haha. I feel like everyone in hollywood loves george since he’s a good guy, and they’re like “He played a father…and he had to cry…so that makes it the best performance of his career and we should give him an oscar”

    • Haha, thank you!! I don’t think there is any versatility to Clooney. He has give a few good performances in which he deserved the praise but he’s always just the same, especially in the past few years. I enjoy him from time to time, but I don’t buy the crying and emotions in The Descendants.

  • WillQ

    The love for Hugo is getting me scared that it may actually win some big awards. Seriously, without Scorsese’s name on it, it would never have seen the light of day, given a gigantic budget, or even been as critically successful. I did like the movie, but it is very indulgent. The technical awards it will win should be going to Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Dragon Tattoo, and Harry Potter.

    I do agree on the snubs for HP (seriously, what else did this franchise have to do to get a BP nom?) for picture and Fassbender for not being nominated/winning actor (still makes me furious) but the utter disrespect for The Tree of Life and Clooney in The Descendants makes me confused. ToL had the best visuals of any film this decade, how it shouldn’t win cinematography is completely beyond me. And Clooney definitely stretched himself for his role. The above poster says playing a father isn’t difficult, are you kidding me? Its a very difficult profession in real life and to portray. He tries to exude strength like a husband/father should even when he is dying inside. Beautiful movie with a completely captivating lead performance.

    Also, Viola Davis should definitely win for The Help. What a powerful performance and very emotional despite the script’s shortcomings. But your love for Bridesmaids’ script (which, in the Apatow vein, was probably half improvised anyway) is a little confusing. Like The Artist, which is an incredible movie and worthy of its praise, Bridesmaids relies on a gimmick: they are women. If this was men, no one would care, but they are women and this twist suddenly turns Apatow product into an Oscar contender. Except, unlike The Artist, the gimmick wears thin when they are grasping for straws trying to be just as crude as the male counterparts. Shitting in a sink seems more like a ploy to gain male support than portraying female honesty. How you think this should win Best Screenplay over the masterful playfulness of Midnight in Paris or labyrinthine domestic issues of A Separation is beyond me.

    Still, to each their own, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens Oscar night.

    • Thomas

      WillQ, I think Hugo is loved by the technical branches of the Academy more than the acting branch. I think it is a respected film by all (as it should be) but I don’t think it has the passion behind it (as a movie) that some of the others do (such as The Help — an “actor’s movie” or The Artist).

      Also — any well-done movie that shows how GLORIOUS Melies and his early work was/were should have some support as he was the man who who made all of the magic of the movies possible. If it weren’t for his ideas and vision, who knows what movies would be today — and so I believe that is why Hugo could win some votes.

      • Thomas

        My computer posted the above before I hit the “post comment” button 🙁

        As for Hugo — I think that “perfect idea” and “ingenius vision” will win it more votes than the story of Hugo will. It might not be fair or how we want it; but I’m trying to reason it through …

        Also — I was astounded by the beauty and scale of Hugo in the theater. It was larger-than-life and made me so proud to be a movie lover; but watching it again with a screener lessened the film’s impact and so I don’t think it’ll win any new votes from voting members that did NOT see it in theaters on that large screen.

        Yes, it is the same movie with the same story on ANY screen — but it doesn’t have the awed KNOCKOUT punch feeling on a television screen. That is a 🙁 and a 🙂 for you! 😉

  • Thomas

    Anna — you’ve listed several snubs in each category as since you’ve listed Fassbender I’m assuming you did see Shame. How did Mulligan not make your list of snubs in her respective category?!?

    • Thomas

      Dang the typo — “… AND since you’ve …”

      🙁

    • I’ll talk about Mulligan in both performances in Drive and Shame. In Drive I didn’t feel she did anything exceptional to deserve a nomination. She acted, she did her job, but the better acting in the movie lies with the men. In Shame, I didn’t put her down as a snub simply because her british accent slipped a few times during the film and to me, to be worthy of a nomination is to be in the area of perfection and she wasn’t. Plus, I also wasn’t blown away by either performances. I didn’t see anything special.

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