Could Oscar assemble for The Avengers?
As anyone who read my review of the film, I’d pretty much discounted the possibility that ‘The Avengers’ could be a player for any major Academy Awards outside of the technical categories (though I did sort of make the case for SAG to notice the ensemble, as much as that might be wishful thinking), but as the box office continues to break records, I’m beginning to amend my position somewhat. I’m not completely changing course here, but I’ve begun to ponder a few things, leading to this piece. It’s still a long shot, but there could be a way for the film to get a Best Picture nomination, and much of it revolves around Marvel partnering with Disney on the flick’s distribution and marketing. Yes, as much as that initial partnership decision had no impact on the creative product that Marvel Studios was producing, it could have a major impact on a potential Oscar campaign. Just think about what the folks at Disney were able to do with ‘The Help’ last year, and ‘Toy Story 3′ as well. Backed by a studio with experience in awards campaigning and major connections to the Oscar race, ‘The Avengers’ could wind up, even more than ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ potentially, being the blockbuster that makes a play for Best Picture. Factor in its previously unheard of box office numbers, and there’s a case that can be made for Joss Whedon’s film. Let’s dive into that right now, why don’t we?
If you look at the all time box office list, a number of the films were rewarded with Best Picture nominations. In an era where a lot of talk since the snub of ‘The Dark Knight’ is about the Academy aiming for mainstream films to get nominated (ala ‘Inception’ two years ago), this could be the perfect one for them. They pulled a similar trick with ‘Avatar’ when it was climbing the charts, though one can argue that was a much more prestigious film than ‘The Avengers’. With Marvel’s epic flick currently at #13 on the all time list as of this writing, it would certainly stand a better than expected chance at a nomination when it undoubtedly cracks the top 10 and beyond. Looking at the current top 10, half of them have been nominated for Best Picture, with the non-nominated films being either animation, sequel, or both. While you could argue that ‘The Avengers’ is a sequel of sorts, it’s kind of its own beast as well, so you can’t necessarily say that it has that going against it.
Obviously money is working in its favor, but also the pure entertainment factor is going to get it some votes. Knowing that not only did millions of people pay to see the flick (and presumably would tune in to see if it somehow stole Best Picture from a smaller film), but that they enjoyed it, the Academy could easily make some kind of push for the movie to be recognized. Remember, Oscar voters care about what makes them feel happy (I’m looking at you ‘The Blind Side’, even though I liked it too), so if they left their screenings walking on air like audiences did, that’s something to surely consider. Also on the Disney backing front, the studio is likely to blanket guild and Oscar members with material on this film, so if someone liked the movie a lot, they won’t be able to forget about it. That doesn’t always work, but it has more than once in the past and could work again here for this movie.
Of course, this is not exactly going to be an easy sell to the voters who will be deciding its fate. Not surprisingly, the film won’t really be getting many votes from the Acting branch (though if they somehow embrace the film with SAG, some could be on board), who likely will favor films with performances more likely to be nominated in the acting categories. The Directors and Writers won’t show it any special love either (unless they’re fans of Whedon too), so there won’t be one specific branch pushing it forward. Keeping all of that in mind, the film could possibly pull out some kind of surprising nod if not Best Picture (I’m guessing Adapted Screenplay, personally), provide that each branch gives ‘The Avengers’ a bit of help here and there.
My shot in the dark theory concludes with the idea that ‘The Avengers’ could actually benefit when compared to ‘The Dark Knight Rises’. Let’s presume that this final Batman film is as good as ‘The Dark Knight’ (or a tad better or worse, it doesn’t matter for this argument, so apply your preferred ranking to it) for argument sake, and that also the prior film was real close to a Best Picture nomination last time (the #6 or #7 slot, essentially). Now, where I’m going with this is if the film is also as heavy as it seems to be, a lot of voters may perhaps be inclined to vote for it because they feel they “have to”, but honestly liked ‘The Avengers’ better, and wind up voting for that one instead. This likely will happen with a few voters, but if this is more widespread than one would assume, then who knows what might happen? Maybe TDKR is so amazing that it becomes a Best Picture lock and I’ll be writing an article on that film, but for now, there are a lot of variables, some of which are good signs for ‘The Avengers’. The odds aren’t exactly in the film’s favor, but depending on what happens with ‘The Dark Knight Rises’, we may or may not see ‘The Avengers’ boost its chances at some Oscar love.
Honestly, I’m somewhat grasping at straws here, I realize that, but considering what the Academy has done recently, there’s no telling what might happen when Oscar morning rolls around. Now, will there be enough #1 votes to get ‘The Avengers’ a Best Picture nomination? Probably not, but hey…we don’t know this for sure, so why not discuss it? Maybe it has a good showing at the precursors, maybe it becomes the highest grossing film of all time, who knows? Anyway, I’m mainly interested in hearing/seeing what you all have to say on this matter. I’m sure most of you aren’t too high on its Best Picture chances, but what about the other categories? Can you see it getting shut out? What do you think will ultimately be its tally? The floor is yours, ladies and germs, so have at it and discuss what might happen to ‘The Avengers’ come Oscar season. Awards Circuit readers Assemble!
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UBourgeois
May 17, 2012 at 5:34 pm
I think The Avengers has a very good chance at breaking at least into the top 5 highest grossing movies ever, perhaps even to #1. That’s its biggest asset right now, especially when paired with its considerable critical acclaim. I think the biggest factor here, as you sort of touched on in your article, is that there’s no way in hell that AMPAS will put up two superhero flicks for Best Picture, or even as players in the major categories. The Avengers’ chances of success in a way hinge on how good TDKR is. If TDKR is really good, it may end up getting the compensation vote from back in 2008. If not, comparisons will be made to TDK and it will look even less impressive than it is. That could very well open the door for The Avengers to get some recognition.
Also, its May release won’t work in its favor as much, but that’s less of a concern.
UBourgeois(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 12:39 am
It’s likely to settle at #3 if I had to guess…
Indeed, there’s no situation where this and TDKR can get in, so if there’s a voting block looking for a blockbuster, it’ll be one or the other.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Mark Johnson
May 17, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Very interesting piece. It’s too early to say it can’t get a BP nom, but the biggest thing in its way (aside from elderly, out of touch Academy members) is definitely The Dark Knight Rises, like you say. The fact that DKR is the final piece in the trilogy, and will more than likely be a “better” film than The Avengers, leads me to think that if ONE comic book based film were to get in (and one would be ground-breaking enough) then it will more than likely be DKR. I also have a feeling DKR will do as successfully if not more so than The Avengers. It wouldn’t surprise me too much at this point if we see two of the highest grossing films of all time – both comic book films – coming from 2012. Between these two film, Prometheus, and The Hobbit, it will be interesting to see how much room AMPAS leaves for non-drama-Oscar-bait in their BP field. Hopefully it will be an “outside-the-box” kind of year for them, if those films are deserving.
Mark Johnson(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 12:41 am
Much obliged my friend.
Fingers crossed for the “outside the box” year from voters…
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
John Rivera
May 17, 2012 at 6:11 pm
To me this is the most overrated film of 2012, I thought it was good not great. It’s only good for technicals
John Rivera(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 12:45 am
Fair enough, for sure.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Clayton Davis
May 17, 2012 at 8:01 pm
I will say it is 99% not in any contention for Best Picture.
Reason: Do we or anyone actually think 5% of the Academy are going to place this at #1 and say, this is the Best Picture of the Year? I think not.
Clayton Davis(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 12:37 am
I pretty much agree, but then again, who would have said the same about Extremely Loud last year, or to a lesser degree War Horse?
I’m just determined to cover all bases this year…
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Mark Johnson
May 18, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Do we know for certain they are using the same “#1″ formula this year? Its odds seem best if they revert to the voting structure they used in 2009 and 2010.
Mark Johnson(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 9:50 pm
We don’t, but it’s safe to assume at this point…
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
steve
May 18, 2012 at 12:57 am
But with EL&IC and War Horse they had pedigrees that made them destined to be nominated. Like people were going to exclude a Spielberg film (no matter how middle of the road it was) and the newest AMPAS darling Daldry?
steve(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 1:08 am
The pedigree made them candidates, yes…I’m more talking about the #1 votes situation and how there was no excitement for them that could be gathered (no voters I talked to mentioned those flicks, while they liked to talk about things like The Artist and Midnight in Paris). Joss Whedon is surely no Spielberg, but if the film continues breaking records, there will definitely be a push for this flick.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Kevin
May 18, 2012 at 1:41 am
If Avatar and Inception can get nominated, this definitely should. I liked both Avatar and Inception, but this is superior to both in my opinion. Obviously it will depend on how good other movies are later in the year, but I’d at least say this could be deserving a nomination.
Kevin(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Indeed, a lot is still to be decided…quality sadly isn’t everything.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Knox Van Horn
May 18, 2012 at 2:23 am
You know at first I was seriously doubting that Avengers would even have a chance at getting best picture (probably because I’m a Dark Knight fan and don’t want it winning where TDK didn’t), but looking at it now, it seems like it might actually have a shot. I don’t think it’s comparable to things like Avatar and Inception though in terms of just being a big blockbuster. I really liked Avatar, better than Avengers, and Inception was one of the best films I’ve seen in years, but I think that Avengers is much different. And then there’s of course the whole DKR thing. I am personally hoping that Rises blows Avengers out of the water, partly because I want the series to have a great ending, partly because I love TDK so much, and also partly because I’m tired of hearing my friends rave about the Avengers like its the Godfather. But overall I wouldn’t rule out Avengers, but I wouldn’t put it in my predictions at this stage.
Knox Van Horn(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 8:44 pm
That’s pretty much my thoughts too…this article is just an objective account of what could happen.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Mark Johnson
May 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
That’s why I like it. We can write all day about Lincoln’s chances, which we all know are great. Talking about a film that has little chance and putting a “what if?” spin to it is a little more interesting at this time of the year. You never know what AMPAS could do. If The Avengers becomes #1 all time, the game becomes interesting. If District 9 (which I adored) got in…
Mark Johnson(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Exactly…I did the same thing with Drive last year, and plan on doing more this year.
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Jessie Makowski
May 18, 2012 at 9:05 am
I’d never put this movie with “Oscar” in my mind, but you do make some interesting points. If Disney pulls this off they’ll really have some bragging rights, won’t they?
Jessie Makowski(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
May 18, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Very true…
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)