“…no one can get at it except for me” – Daniel Plainview, There Will Be Blood
That’s how I feel about this Oscar race. I feel I see something that no one else does. I’ve been doing this a long time but I’ve never had the overwhelming feeling like I just figured out the Oscar race in August. I was sitting down to do my Oscar predictions like any other month. Making some switches, moving some contenders, and cleaning out films and performances that we thought would be coming out but still have no release date.
I stared at a few names and had an epiphany. It was as if I was Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, and the code all came off the page and circled my head in an Oscar sensation. On August 25, 2012 I’ve chosen to make my first ballsy prediction of the year. Terrence Malick and his film, To the Wonder wins Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars 2013. How did I come to this conclusion you ask? I will discuss this in more detail on this week’s Power Hour which premieres on Monday but I’ll attempt to give you the best break down possible in the following thoughts beginning with the Director field:
The wrench thrown into the mix now is Gus Van Sant and the latest entry into the race, Promised Land written by Matt Damon, John Krasinski, and Dave Eggers. Van Sant has been a a well-respected director for years with two nominations for Good Will Hunting and Milk, both win-worthy. Not to mention that Van Sant has been ignored for his brave efforts like Elephant and Last Days. If the film lives up to expectations and surprises enough people, Van Sant and Promised Land could find itself on the center stage.
Now, I’m fully aware that most of these films haven’t come out yet and I could be blowing smoke into the air but I’ve never felt so strongly about the possibility of the outcome of the Oscar race this early in the year. I’ll admit I’m wrong if and when I am but for now I’m going with it.
Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina fits the mold of previous Best Actress winners. The Academy likes them young and Knightley should gain a lot of support from the British voting body of the Academy unless Laura Linney, Marion Cotillard or Quvenzhane Wallis have their lovers. Supporting Actress is still Anne Hathaway’s to lose unless Adams gets the overdue factor or Sally Field stands out as the lone woman in Spielberg’s Lincoln.
While all the Commentary boxes aren’t updated yet, you can look at the rankings of each contender the pages. My predicted winners are below:
|PICTURE||To the Wonder|
|DIRECTOR||Terrence Malick (To the Wonder)|
|LEAD ACTOR||John Hawkes (The Sessions)|
|LEAD ACTRESS||Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)|
|SUPPORTING ACTOR||William H. Macy (The Sessions)|
|SUPPORTING ACTRESS||Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)|
|ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY||Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)|
|ADAPTED SCREENPLAY||Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)|
|ART DIRECTION||Anna Karenina (Sarah Greenwood)|
|CINEMATOGRAPHY||To the Wonder (Emmanuel Lubezki)|
|COSTUME DESIGN||Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)|
|FILM EDITING||The Master (Peter Multry)|
|SOUND MIXING||The Avengers|
|SOUND EDITING||The Avengers|
|VISUAL EFFECTS||The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey|
|ORIGINAL SCORE||Argo (Alexandre Desplat)|
|ORIGINAL SONG||“Still Alive” from Paul Williams Still Alive|
Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision
Comment and share your predictions!