“…no one can get at it except for me” – Daniel Plainview, There Will Be Blood
That’s how I feel about this Oscar race. I feel I see something that no one else does. I’ve been doing this a long time but I’ve never had the overwhelming feeling like I just figured out the Oscar race in August. I was sitting down to do my Oscar predictions like any other month. Making some switches, moving some contenders, and cleaning out films and performances that we thought would be coming out but still have no release date.
I stared at a few names and had an epiphany. It was as if I was Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, and the code all came off the page and circled my head in an Oscar sensation. On August 25, 2012 I’ve chosen to make my first ballsy prediction of the year. Terrence Malick and his film, To the Wonder wins Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars 2013. How did I come to this conclusion you ask? I will discuss this in more detail on this week’s Power Hour which premieres on Monday but I’ll attempt to give you the best break down possible in the following thoughts beginning with the Director field:
The wrench thrown into the mix now is Gus Van Sant and the latest entry into the race, Promised Land written by Matt Damon, John Krasinski, and Dave Eggers. Van Sant has been a a well-respected director for years with two nominations for Good Will Hunting and Milk, both win-worthy. Not to mention that Van Sant has been ignored for his brave efforts like Elephant and Last Days. If the film lives up to expectations and surprises enough people, Van Sant and Promised Land could find itself on the center stage.
Now, I’m fully aware that most of these films haven’t come out yet and I could be blowing smoke into the air but I’ve never felt so strongly about the possibility of the outcome of the Oscar race this early in the year. I’ll admit I’m wrong if and when I am but for now I’m going with it.
Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina fits the mold of previous Best Actress winners. The Academy likes them young and Knightley should gain a lot of support from the British voting body of the Academy unless Laura Linney, Marion Cotillard or Quvenzhane Wallis have their lovers. Supporting Actress is still Anne Hathaway’s to lose unless Adams gets the overdue factor or Sally Field stands out as the lone woman in Spielberg’s Lincoln.
While all the Commentary boxes aren’t updated yet, you can look at the rankings of each contender the pages. My predicted winners are below:
| CATEGORY | WINNER |
|---|---|
| PICTURE | To the Wonder |
| DIRECTOR | Terrence Malick (To the Wonder) |
| LEAD ACTOR | John Hawkes (The Sessions) |
| LEAD ACTRESS | Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina) |
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | William H. Macy (The Sessions) |
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) |
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) |
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin) |
| ANIMATED FEATURE | ParaNorman |
| ART DIRECTION | Anna Karenina (Sarah Greenwood) |
| CINEMATOGRAPHY | To the Wonder (Emmanuel Lubezki) |
| COSTUME DESIGN | Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran) |
| FILM EDITING | The Master (Peter Multry) |
| MAKEUP | Lincoln |
| SOUND MIXING | The Avengers |
| SOUND EDITING | The Avengers |
| VISUAL EFFECTS | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey |
| ORIGINAL SCORE | Argo (Alexandre Desplat) |
| ORIGINAL SONG | “Still Alive” from Paul Williams Still Alive |
| FORIEGN LANGUAGE | Amour |
Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision
Comment and share your predictions!
![Zod-Man-of-Steel-Michael Shannon_thumb[1]](http://www.awardscircuit.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Zod-Man-of-Steel-Michael-Shannon_thumb1.jpg)
GL
August 25, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Lol. That is all I have to say Clayton. I admire your guts though. Stick with them, and champion for them this entire season. Maybe some Academy members will encounter this and actually follow through.
It’s sad though to say that your BP and BD pics are a little on the “wish” side. The hard faced facts are, Malick is too artsy. Too different. Too quiet, for the Academy. Especially the directors branch, who are fickle, mostly old white men. For “To The Wonder” to achieve the impossible it would’ve to be not only a masterful film, but a BOXOFFICE SUCCESS. The film would’ve have to win Venice, Toronto, and whatever is coming next. It would have to sweep, it would need a trailer by now to even be considered a threat. His Academy support for “Tree of Life” was disgustingly mute. His directors’ nomination truly came from the fact he won Palm during Cannes given to him by a prominent American Academy member. Even with its pedigree without those variables the film would’ve have been M.I.A. during the award season. Those are the sad, but mostly true fact about Malick.
I am really excited for “The Sessions” though as of now I still think Hawkes is in that third tier, the underdog, the Michelle Williams of last year spot. The race seems to be really heating up for DDL and Phoenix. Even with Helen Hunt going supporting, It also seems to be a Hathaway, Adams race with Hathaway winning for a showier role and massive contribution to the industry through the Dark Knight success. Though I am still expecting the lead actress race to heat up someway, somehow, PLEASE LOL, Knightley is the correct logical front-runner as of now. The Supporting Actor category is wide opened. Anything could happen there.
Here are some side notes though, Don’t count Haneke out from a BP or BD nom spot. Don’t count Nolan or the Dark Knight Rise out either. Don’t count Benh Zeitlin. If the Academy supports the film, he WILL receive a nom. The film is just too critical to be widely received and dismiss the main guy behind the formula, the director. It would be like awarding “The Artist” BP but dismissing the director.
Good luck though Clayton, this is by far the best, most passionate, anti-fanboy prediction you’ve come up with ever this early on the race. Let’s see where this goes by October.
GL(Quote) (Reply)
Steve Glansberg
August 25, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Ha ha this is fantastic! Predicting the Oscars can become such a predictable drag, it’s always great to see someone taking a chance on riskier choices, like Malick. And I’m glad to see that there’s still some enthusiasm for Lubezki, even after last season’s loss.
Steve Glansberg(Quote) (Reply)
Henry Z.
August 25, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Terrance Malick’s films lately have been very polarized. The confusion in his films often keep them from greatness, even if they are fascinating to look at, thus resulting in turning off voters. So, “To the Wonder” may be a bit too much for the Academy. But, they may still appreciate Malick and garner him a nomination…
And, I wouldn’t knock of Life of Pi…just yet.
Henry Z.(Quote) (Reply)
JamDenTel
August 25, 2012 at 11:14 pm
“Also, Life of Pi may be too much for some of the Academy members.”
What? Too boring even for them?
But anyway, although I’m personally rooting for The Master, I’d be quite happy to see Malick get the Oscar. Certainly The Tree of Life, IMO, was the best BP nominee of last year.
JamDenTel(Quote) (Reply)
JamDenTel
August 25, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Also, personally, I really don’t think the Beasts of the Southern Wild script deserves a nomination, let alone a win. THE DEEP BLUE SEA, HEADHUNTERS, BERNIE, and MADAGASCAR 3 were all far superior adapted scripts.
JamDenTel(Quote) (Reply)
Aaron McMahon
August 26, 2012 at 4:24 am
PICTURE The Master
DIRECTOR Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
LEAD ACTOR Joaqiun Phoenix/John Hawkes
LEAD ACTRESS Keira Knightley?
SUPPORTING ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Anne Hathaway- I Dreamed a Dream puts her in the lead
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Life of Pi/The Sessions-sight unseen
ANIMATED FEATURE Rise of the Guardians/Wreck-It-Ralph-sight unseen
ART DIRECTION Les Miserables
CINEMATOGRAPHY The Master
COSTUME DESIGN Mirror Mirror
FILM EDITING Life of Pi
MAKEUP Lincoln
SOUND MIXING Brave- Dolby Atmos=win
SOUND EDITING The Avengers
VISUAL EFFECTS The Avengers-nothing else since Avatar has been that amazing and The Hobbit will probably suck
ORIGINAL SCORE Rust and Bone/Beasts of the Southern Wild/Life of Pi
ORIGINAL SONG Abraham’s Daughter, The Hunger Games
Aaron McMahon(Quote) (Reply)
JeremyJ
August 26, 2012 at 8:44 am
Someone tell me why Django Unchained isn’t even being listed for Best Picture?
JeremyJ(Quote) (Reply)
Genadijus
August 26, 2012 at 8:50 am
My predictions:
Best Picture – THE MASTER (Dark horse: LINCOLN).
Best Actor – Joaqiun Phoenix (Dark horses: Daniel Day Lewis / Bill Muray)
Best Actress – Keira Knightley (Dark horses: Naomi Watts / Laura Linney)
Best Supporting actor – Leonardo di Caprio (Dark horses: William H. Macy / Philip Seymour Hoffman)
Best Supporting actress – Anne Hathaway (Dark horses: Amy Adams / Anette Bening)
Genadijus(Quote) (Reply)
Myles Edward Hughes
August 26, 2012 at 9:54 am
Someone’s getting ballsy in his old age, hahaha. Excellent write-up Clay. It’ll definitely be interesting to see if To The Wonder has the same impact you’re predicting.
I have a hunch that Beasts of the Southern Wild will make a bit more of a killing (it’s my current frontrunner for Best Picture).
Agreed that Hawkes is a serious threat for Best Actor, though don’t underestimate Phoenix (I got to see The Master last week and he is stunning. All three lead actors will definitely be nominated).
Not as sure about Best Actress, though I’d love to see someone like Naomi Watts take it.
Supporting Actor is DiCaprio’s to lose at this point (it’s a category that loves to reward scene-stealing villains, and his multiple nominations definitely make him due for a win).
Agreed that Hathaway is the best shot for Supporting Actress.
Myles Edward Hughes(Quote) (Reply)
John H. Foote
August 26, 2012 at 10:19 am
Whoa!!!! Gutsy move Clay — it is interesting but I feel as strongly about Lincoln, Day-Lewis and Spielberg as you do about To the Wonder and Malick — all of your logic is sound, every bit of it — I especially agaree with the fact that Lincoln is going to have to be at least as good as Saving Private Ryan (1998) or Schindler’s List (1993), but I think Spielberg knows this — one of his strengths (if you call it that) is that he evolves in playing the game, the Oscar game — he blew it with Saving Private Ryan (1998) and knows it, so if Lincoln is discussed in Oscar talk, he will be there ever step of the way and To the Wonder cannot count on Malick for that — not sure he will ever surpass Schindler’s List (1993), but if it is better than Ryan, he could win — I am seeing To the Wonder in a few days and looking forward to it to see if the actors can carry a film such as this — totally agree that Hooper won Fincher’s Oscar — great piece…and as I said, gutsy.
John H. Foote(Quote) (Reply)
Christophe
August 26, 2012 at 10:51 am
I never try to predict the Oscars, the Academy being so “unpredictable”… but I do like to wonder who I would vote for if I were part of the Academy:
Best Picture – LES MISERABLES
Best Director – Wes Anderson – MOONRISE KINGDOM
Best Lead Actor – Bill Murray – HYDE PARK ON HUDSON
Best Lead Actress – Laura Linney – HYDE PARK ON HUDSON (unless Anne Hathaway gets a nod in the lead category for LES MIZ)
Best Supporting Actor – ???
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway – LES MISERABLES
Best Original Screenplay – MOONRISE KINGDOM
Best Adapted Screenplay – LES MISERABLES
Best Animated Feature – FRANKENWEENIE
Christophe(Quote) (Reply)
Tyler
August 26, 2012 at 4:47 pm
PICTURE:
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Master
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Anna Karenina
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Promised Land
Hyde Park on Hudson
DIRECTOR:
Steven Spielberg
Paul Thomas Anderson
Tom Hooper
Ben Affleck
Ang Lee
ACTOR:
Daniel Day Lewis
Joaquin Phoenix
John Hawkes
Bill Murray
Denzel Washington- Flight
ACTRESS:
Quvenzhane Wallis
Keira Knighely
Maggie Smith- Quartet
Laura Linney
Naomi Watts- Impossible
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Leonardo DiCaprio
Russell Crowe
Dwight Henry
Hal Holbrook- Promised Land
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Vanessa Redgrave- Song for Marion
Judi Dench
Sally Field
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Master
Amour
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Django Unchained
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Master
To the Wonder
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
EDITING:
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Les Miserables
The Master
Lincoln
Tyler(Quote) (Reply)
Jack
August 26, 2012 at 5:09 pm
I really hope this happens. Not only is Malick my favorite director in all of cinema history (his films have vastly changed how I look at the world and myself in it) but To the Wonder seems to be a return to form for him. He has always done best with his quiet love stories and I think To the Wonder will be a bit more conventional (even if Lubezki says no) and gain more fans. Malick deserves an Oscar more than anyone in the biz. He makes movies that can change people and the medium. I really want this to happen, props for the ballsy move Clayton.
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Henry Z.
August 26, 2012 at 6:00 pm
@Jack, there have been many directors who never won an Oscar for directing such as Lumet and Altman. Malick is just one on the list….sadly.
Henry Z.(Quote) (Reply)
Awesome
August 26, 2012 at 6:28 pm
William H. Macy won’t win Best Supporting Actor. His performance is good, but nothing worthy of a supporting actor winner. It’s a very light performance. I found it more like a comedic relief in the film. I could see a John Hawkes, Helen Hunt duel win. Both are brilliant performances and Hunt’s is very daring. People keep talking about Macy, aside from Hawkes, for a nomination/win, but I think Hunt is not getting enough buzz/credit for her roll.
Awesome(Quote) (Reply)
Nick
August 26, 2012 at 10:21 pm
My 2 cents:
I’ve heard Flight is a tour de force for Denzel and a welcome back party for Zemeicks. I’ve also read a script review long before Denzel was cast saying whoever lands the role will be contending for an Oscar nom.
Silver Linings Playbook is enjoyable, but very fluff lightweight stuff. Nice performances, but rather pedestrian.
With the release of Promised Land, I get the feeling that Focus isn’t too impressed with their slate of films per se- Moonrise Kingdom already came out, but now they need to build campaigns for Anna Karenina, Hyde Park, an now Promised Land. 4 potential Best Picture nominees-I don’t know, just seems a bit excessive.
Even if To the Wonder scores raves at TIFF and Venice, which distributor can purchase it, find a nice release date, and build a strong enough run for the Oscars? Weinsteins will probably put most their marbles into The Master, they also got Django, Silver Linings, Killing them softly, Quartet, and Populaire to worry about. Sony Classics just bought The Comoany They Keep and Rust/Bone and Amour have been screened. I already mentioned Focus, and Fox Searchlight has Beasts and The Sessions. they picked up Shame last year, but failed to score any Oscars. I still believe To the Wonder will get sold, but by who and when will it come out.
Same goes for Place Beyond the Pines, imogene, etc. The race is too crowded coming up.
Les Miserables/Anna Karenina both classic literary stories being remade for the 100th time, will the Academy really go for that?
Apparently, according to early reaction Argo is more in line with The Town, an action movie with a real story and humanity and The Town came this close to an Best picture slot. However, this is based on a true story and produced by George Clooney.
IMO, it’s between Lincoln/Master. Will Day Lewis/Spielberg receive their 3 category wins. The last few winners have been original stories, so it could be time to break the trend and go back to adapted material such as Lincoln.
The Master could either be like Black Swan/Tree of Life or No Country, a dark poloarizing picture from the early word.
either way, sorting out to be a fun awards race.
Nick(Quote) (Reply)
Massimo
August 27, 2012 at 1:20 am
Props Clayton on making such a bold choice this early in the oscar race. As a huge Malick fan i would love nothing more then for your prediction to come true. My fingers are crossed very tightly.
Massimo(Quote) (Reply)
Jeremy DC
August 27, 2012 at 12:18 pm
If your predictions do come true I hope it’s because To the Wonder deserves it and not because they think Malick is “due”.
Jeremy DC(Quote) (Reply)
Roger
August 28, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Actually I think you understimate “Argo”. It will be Warner Bros’ biggest Oscar player and with names like George Clooney behind, it could be the sleeper hit. Also I think Bryan Cranston could win in the supporting category
For Keira Knightley’s prospects… Nah, I don’t think she’ll win. Also, I believe Anna Karenina will be “The Portrait of a Lady” 2.0, an experimental adaptation from a classic adaptation who came with mixed results and few awards prospects. Knightley would be lucky if she gets a second nomination.
If you believe “To the Wonder” will win the Oscar, maybe Rachel McAdams could sneak it for Best Actress. She’s young, having a good record -Working with Woody Allen, Brian De Palma and Terrence Malick- and she’s less polarized actress than Knightley. Just need to known for Venice reviews. For awards prospects, maybe Fox Searchlight, Lionsgate or Roadside Attraction -After all Winter’s Bone, Biutiful and Albert Nobbs got noms-,,,
Roger(Quote) (Reply)
Benny
August 31, 2012 at 10:29 pm
PICTURE:
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master
Amour
Life of Pi
Promised Land
Zero Dark Thirty
ACTOR:
Joaquin Phoenix
Daniel Day Lewis
John Hawkes
Bill Murray- Hyde
Denzel Washington- Flight
ACTRESS:
Quvenzhane Wallis
Keira Knightley
Maggie Smith
Emmanuelle Riva- Amour
Naomi Watts- The Impossible
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Hal Holbrook
Leonardo DiCaprio
Russell Crowe
Dwight Henry
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams- Master
Anne Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Vanessa Redgrave
Sally Field
DIRECTOR:
Ben Affleck
Paul Thomas Anderson
Steven Spielberg
Tom Hooper
Michael Haneke
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Amour
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Django Unchained
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Lincoln
The Sessions
Quartet
EDITING:
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
The Master
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Master
Life of Pi
To the Wonder
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Hobbit
COSTUME:
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White
SCORE:
The Master
Lincoln
Argo
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit
Benny(Quote) (Reply)