In any case, my Oscar thoughts:

Best Picture: With an RT score in the 80s, it’s probably not the absolute frontrunner anymore. However, those who love it REALLY love it, and that could have an effect on the Academy who, after two relatively safe, audience-friendly choices, might go for the more daring choice again.
Best Director: Also a little iffy; since Anderson would also win if the script did, I could see this pulling a PULP FICTION or CHINATOWN and winning solely for that. If it wins Picture, it’ll likely win Director–tentatively, at the moment, I’ll say Ben Affleck is Anderson’s major competitor here.
Best Original Screenplay: This is definitely THE MASTER’s to lose. Not just because the script should be fantastic, but because A: Anderson has been nominated three times previously for his writing, and will quite possibly be considered due to win, and B: the competition at the moment doesn’t look that strong. When AMOUR is your strongest competitor…I think he can look forward to this one.
Best Actor: This is shaping up to be one of the more turbulent Best Actor races of recent years, but I think Phoenix can pull it off. The praise for his performance is near universal, he’s been nominated twice before, and if he wins, he’s sure to dedicate the award to his late brother–which would reduce all who saw it to tears. DDL could offer some stiff competition, but I think this and Original Screenplay are the film’s best bets.
Best Supporting Actor: Hoffman is also getting glowing praise for his role, but I think a win is less certain. I’m not sure who would be his strongest competitor (this is a mildly weak year for this category), but I’ll say Dwight Henry or William H. Macy (and if Macy wins, it’s probably as much because he’s never won yet).
Best Supporting Actress: This comes down, I think, to Anne Hathaway v. Amy Adams. Adams has four previous nominations, Hathaway but one. I’ve heard rumors that Adams’ part is actually relatively small, but at this point it’s a coin-flipper between the two. Either could win and it wouldn’t shock me.
Best Cinematography: The first film in years shot in 70mm? General praise for its visual qualities? A lack of outstanding competition? It all adds up to a solidly likely win. LINCOLN is the closest competitor…I guess.
Best Score: I love what I’ve heard of it, and I think it’s another likely win. I’m not too sure what the competition would be…even though the score for LINCOLN sounds pretty underwhelming, Williams could pull it off. But I’m rooting for Greenwood.

So those are the 8 likely noms/wins. It could also make a showing in Editing, Sound, Costume Design, and/or Production Design, but those are less sure bets.