My 2 cents:
BEST PICTURE: IMO, at the moment, Argo is the frontrunner. A fact based political thriller set in Hollywood. All-star cast, Affleck at the helm, Clooney producing. Crowd pleasing, backed by Warner Bros.

Playbook is number 2. The academy is begining to warm up to O Russell. Adapted story about real-life problems-mental illness. Mixture of young talent and old. Audience friendly. This year’s Descendants, Up in the Air, Little Miss Sunshine. Will take away the dramedy vote from The Sessions. Backed by Weinstein.

The Master will be the critical favorite. The older members will certainly be baffled by it, but will get a majority of first place votes. PTA has garned many nominations before. The scientlology angle has been played down. Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a Picture/Director split. The Black Swan/Tree of Life. I have a feeling, Harvey will put his marbles for Playbook as Picture and PTA for director, but still campaign them both.

Lincoln is Spielberg/Day Lewis. Always contender, unless more of a War Horse vibe. Les Miserables is tricky. A well-beloved musical-star cast-hot director fresh off a win. Will take away votes from Anna Karenina, the other literary classic, which has only scored middling reviews. Life of Pi could be a dark horse- Ang Lee is adored, but he at times goes crazy with style- Hulk. This is in 3D. Django Unchained could either be Pulp Fiction/Basterds-healthy box office and make room in the Oscars, or Tarantino’s fantasy- Death Proof/Kill Bill. Amour is universally acclaimed, but will it be too strong? A Seperation was hailed as a masterpiece, so who knows. Promised Land, given its release date will probably miss many of the precusors-Guilds, Globes, but if given enough room, could sneak in. This is more Oscar friendly like Van Sant’s Good Will Hunting, Milk. Damon has already won an Oscar for writing, and the subject matter could hit home in an election year. Same goes for Zero Dark Thirty.

ACTING:
Bill Murray seems to be out due to the film’s less than stellar buzz. He could pop up at the Globes, etc due to his name such as DiCaprio, but the odds are not in his favor. Richard Gere could have a lasting effect such as Gary Oldman or even Demian Bihchir last year. Famous actor, no previous nods, good box office and reviews, plus Roadside Attractions has put out terrifc campaigns in the past. Day Lewis will probably be in regardless, but this could be like Gangs of New York, and could go down.

To me, the Best Actor race comes down to Hawkes/Phoenix. With Hawkes edging out, he’s the right age, playing a disabled man, crowd pleaser. Phoeni could be tough and not wanna campaign himself, plus will the Academy be over his I’m Still Here stunt. No question, Phoenix’s performance is the best of the year, his career, etc, and PTA is the best actor’s director right now.

I think Hoffman goes supporting not to cancel Phoenix out, which will cancel out another Weinstein film- django, which will have Leo in a bad guy role. QT writes great characters, but Waltz is the only to win an Oscar for a QT film. Robert DeNiro will be in the mix for Playbook. The final spots will be either Dwight Henry, Russell Crowe, Alan Arkin/John Goodman, or perhaps a big surprise like von Sydow- maybe Holbrook. McConegheny will probably be best suited for the Globes.

If Jennifer Lawrence is nominated, she’ll be the youngest with 2 nominees. Quenzhane is number 2-she has her support, but have often does really young performers win. Let alone a black actress in a leading role. Will 2 foreign langiage nominees contend- Cotillard and Riva? Knightley’s probably out unless her film is nominated.

Supporting actress is so weak- Amy Adams will probably get in like she did for Doubt. The role’s small and somewhat one note, but she’s been singled out and is a darling. Anne seems to be the one to beat.