As the awards season is underway, multiple scenarios are playing out in my mind suggesting what can occur for the remainder of the year. Films like The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Zero Dark Thirty are still sight unseen with Django Unchained and Promised Land about to get their first set of eyes. Last week Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables debuted a full-length trailer featuring Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Eddie Redmayne, and Amanda Seyfried all showing some singing skills. Supporting Actress frontrunner Anne Hathaway was shown singing “I Dreamed a Dream” for the third time in the Universal Pictures marketing, which leads me to my point of the Oscar Circuit.
The trailer for Les Miserables didn’t do the film any favors. The clunky production design, unnecessary wide-angles, and even the live singing on set didn’t seem as great as I’d thought it’d be. In this latest round of Oscar Predictions, I’ve decided to back from Tom Hooper’s film a little bit. Where momentum and prestige is on the side of Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln and Ben Affleck’s Argo, big stage musicals transferred to film aren’t always safe bets. What makes this notion of the film failing to impress even more compelling is Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master. If Anne Hathaway were to fall out of the Supporting Actress race, who could win the award in her absence? There are arguably three slots taken in Supporting Actress with Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), and Helen Hunt (The Sessions). If it’s between those three for the win, Adams will be on her fourth nomination with the other two ladies having Oscars already. Field herself would be 3 for 3 for Oscar nominations, something hard to envision happening. Hunt has had a hard time post-Oscar win and isn’t as beloved as her competitors. This could all work out for the young Amy Adams.
What puts the momentum on Adams is The Master could be the third film to win three acting Oscars on the same night. The first time was in 1952 when Elia Kazan’s A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) won Oscars for Karl Malden, Vivien Leigh, and Kim Hunter, only leaving first-time nominee Marlon Brando on the sidelines. The second and last film to have the honor was in 1977 when Sidney Lumet’s Network (1976) took home three acting awards for Faye Dunaway, Beatrice Straight, and posthumously for Peter Finch. What makes these two films so remarkable are both were nominated but lost Best Picture, something that Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master is bound to do. They also both won a fourth Oscar on the same night, Art Direction for Kazan’s film and Original Screenplay for Lumet’s.
Could John Hawkes miss out on a nomination?
As the Lead Actor race heats up in a way I’ve never witnessed before, only Joaquin Phoenix and Daniel Day-Lewis seem assured nominations at this point. At one point John Hawkes seemed safe for a nomination but after watching what Bradley Cooper achieves in David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook late last week, both Hawkes and Denzel Washington could have their spots in serious jeopardy. Sacha Gervasi’s Hitchcock started its rounds of screening and the minimal enthusiasm for the film and the performance of Anthony Hopkins could be spelling out an omission from Lead Actor. Richard Gere still delivers one of the year’s finest turns in Nicholas Jarecki’s Arbitrage; a performance I feel could have opened voter’s eyes to a career that has gone unrecognized. That suspicion may be going down the toilet along with the chances of Hugh Jackman for reasons stated earlier.
Christoph Waltz has entered the race in a big way after Gold Derby cited that he would be campaigned as a Lead Actor. Some pundits think it was done to make way for Leonardo DiCaprio to capture his Oscar easier but after early word suggests, Samuel L. Jackson has been cited as the standout performer next to Waltz. What this tells me is that Joaquin Phoenix, if he can remain respectful for the rest of the season, be rewarded his first Academy Award.
With a lack of Supporting Actor contenders, all previously rewarded before including Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), and Alan Arkin (Argo), Philip Seymour Hoffman is the only solid performer sitting at the top of the pack. Unless John Goodman rallies up an unusual amount of good will for his two works in Argo and Flight and/or a veteran like William H. Macy or Hal Holbrook starts a following, Hoffman is likely to capture Oscar #2.
As pointed out, the two films to win three acting Oscars all captured a fourth award on the night, what would the fourth award be for The Master? A weak and underdeveloped Original Screenplay category could have Paul Thomas Anderson confined to win Original Screenplay. Now keep in mind this is all contingent upon Les Miserables bombing, DiCaprio being dismissed, and Phoenix playing nice for the rest of the season but its always useful to foresee Oscar possibilities. The Weinsteins could capitalize on such a precedent.
Cotillard or Riva? Or Neither?
Lead Actress has taken a different shape as of late. Still working on the concept that Jessica Chastain is going to something extraordinary in Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, her and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) sit at the top. Sony Pictures Classics has both foreign language performers Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone) and Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) hoping for a spot or two. It’s becoming exceedingly difficult to believe that both, or worst yet, none of them can find themselves nominated. What helps Riva significantly is that Amour along with Michael Haneke are being praised in a more enthusiastic and beloved manner than Jacques Audiard’s Rust & Bone. Quvenzhane Wallis has two huge detractions from propelling her forward, age and race, both that shouldn’t matter but have proven to have significance. Beasts of the Southern Wild also needs a resurrection of buzz and a strong following at Critics Choice and Golden Globes. Naomi Watts, who is being campaigned strongly by Summit Entertainment and delivers my favorite leading actress performance of the year so far, could find her way into the race if AMPAS and critics respond to The Impossible. It’s their strongest pony to push besides Richard Gere. There seems to be some excited lovers like myself and Joseph and some that loathe it like John. That’s a good place to be sometimes because that’s how films like The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close are surprise entries on nomination morning. The British voting body could push through their own like Keira Knightley and Helen Mirren, no matter how their films are received. Eight contenders for five spots is how this is shaping up. I don’t even think Meryl Streep is on the table anymore which is a breath of fresh air.
Predictions have been updated accordingly. Click through the categories and make sure to leave your thoughts down in the comments. Some pictures and commentary haven’t been added but will be in the next day or so.
What are your predictions?
JamDenTel
November 11, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Glad to see someone agrees with me about the Les Mis trailers. The camerawork is off-putting (Tom Hooper is not Lars von Trier) and Russell Crowe’s singing did not impress.
Also, as I’ve pointed out elsewhere, Phantom of the Opera and Rent (oh, and The Producers) all proved to be critical and box-office disappointments. I would not be shocked if Les Mis follows suit.
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MovieFan
November 11, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Hopefully not, I think Phoenx performance in The Master is being way overrated, too much ‘acting’ going on. That said I still think he will win because I just can’t see DDL or Denzel winning a third Oscar and Hawkes or Cooper havent got the notices Phoenix has. Its his too lose.
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MovieFan
November 11, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Hopefully not, I think Phoenix performance in The Master is being way overrated, too much ‘acting’ going on. That said I still think he will win because I just can’t see DDL or Denzel winning a third Oscar and Hawkes or Cooper havent got the notices Phoenix has. Its his too lose.
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MovieFan
November 11, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Oh and I disagree that supporting actor apart from Hoffman is lacking contenders because Tommy Lee Jones’s reviews are just as great as Hoffmans are, plus he steals the film from DDL, which s no easy feat. Also he was in a film with Streep thi year where he arguably gave the best performance in that. He’s had a top year all round and is easily as much of a contender to win as Hoffman.
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GL
November 11, 2012 at 1:19 pm
@JamDenTel Except that people are expecting the film to follow “Chicago” and “Moulin Rouge” routes. The caliber is there. Oscar winning director, powerful material, top of the pile cast and crew. Since “Anna Karenina” BP chances are pretty dead, BAFTA will explode for this. The question is, if this becomes a “Titanic” as some are foreseeing, will Oscar go bananas for this as well?
In regards to your piece Clay you raise some interesting points. But the thing is, the “Les Mis” campaign is one confident one. They have put a trust in Hathaway that at this point even if the film misses, she will be awarded a nomination. Think for example Stanley Tucci in “Lovely Bones”. They have profiled her all three times, even though her part is small they have pushed her to an almost leading status. What seems to be happening though is people are backing out from Jackman because of the crowded and cut throat Best Actor race.
In regards to “The Master” something interesting is happening. Their campaign has all but died. They did poorly on the box office, and not many are predicting the Academy to fall in love with it. The Weisteins seem to have opted for the crowd pleaser “Silver Linings” instead. I think at this point, Hoffman will be lucky to get an Oscar for the film. If Lincoln hits their soft spot, if Argo hits their soft spot, if Django hits their soft spot, this is a category where their love for a certain film will really shine. And we also need to think who is Harvey going to push more, Hoffman or Deniro, or Dicaprio? Even Phoenix right now is sort of up in the air. His trashing of the Academy is something people are not really going to respond positively to and the DDL factor is just forget it lol.
Anyways this is definitely an interesting thing to ponder further, but at this point if any of those three actors makes in, it will really be an uphill climb for a win, for any of them.
GL(Quote) (Reply)
UBourgeois
November 11, 2012 at 1:32 pm
I’m personally still not seeing Richard Gere getting a nomination here, but I’m not going to say it won’t happen. I think if the Academy really loves Les Mis it will go to Jackman, or Cooper if they really love SLP. The fifth spot is hard to predict this year.
I don’t see Riva over Cotillard, but that’s still more likely than both at once. I think it’s premature to say Chastain is a sure nominee, as Mirren and Knightley could still pull votes in a big way.
I think it’s unwise to count out Leo just yet. I don’t think the double-nomination for Argo is wise – it’ll probably get one, but not both. I’m also not sold on DeNiro’s nomination, but I suppose like with Cooper it can happen if the Academy really likes SLP.
No disagreements on Best Supporting Actress.
UBourgeois(Quote) (Reply)
Roger
November 11, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Sorry Clayton, but I disagree with you in many points:
First of all, you’re overstimate a lot “The Master”. Thompson made clear the film have a bad response by the Academy members for the test screener. Also, I agree with GL, the film was a failure at box office -The worst result in that field for a PTA movie- and Harvey has two bigger players this year. Yes, maybe Silver Linings Playbook is more a romcom, but with the recent expansion, the audience awards and the near perfect rate -Until Slant review- are irresistible to pass off. Also, Harvey has a close relationship with Tarantino. I would bet you if Django Unchained have a good response box office and critics wise, Harvey left “The Master” to support his golden boy. Finally, in this year, with many big players having excellent response -Argo, Flight, Lincoln, Silver Linings- and other films with bigger passion -Amour, Beasts, Rust & Bone-, it seems more difficult to “The Master” to win many critics awards as expected two months ago. Take an example – It seems unlikely for “The Master winning NYFCC, because most of the detractors for the film are from NYC, LAFCA will go easily for “Amour” or “Beasts” and with the NBR being more “mainstream”-. It’s an uphill battle for “The Master”.
With a lack of Supporting Actor contenders…, Philip Seymour Hoffman is the only solid performer sitting at the top of the pack – Again Clayton, not offense, but you sound too naive in this statement. The same thing many people said about Vanessa Redgrave -Easy nomination, even second win- and look what happened, Actually, supporting actor IS FULL of contenders, just because many of them are Oscar winners doesn’t mean they haven’t any chance. Many people said that in imdb, but it’s true – you’re undestimate a lot Tommy Lee Jones. Maybe Hoffman have the lead role in that category, but you forget Harvey have another two contenders – De Niro and DiCaprio. The first having a comeback and even with his recent, he’s still considerate one of the best American actors and the latter, due for Oscar consideration, playing a villain.
For Adams, I tend to believe she’s close to being snubbed this time, but even if she’s making, she’s not contender for the win, more like another filler nomination. First, her category prefers three contenders for winning: Young ingenué, Character actresses and recently, A-List actresses nominated once in the leading category. Also, the supporting actress category prefers novates -Almost 90% of the winners were at their first nomination-, and the rest, most of them won only where they are nominated once before. The only exceptions -Vanessa Redgrave and Maureen Stapleton- and yes, even when I like Adams, she’s not one of them. And finally, I completely agree with GL, with Les Miz. Even if the film is a complete bomb, I can see Hathaway nominated. BTW, JamDenTel and Clayton, it seems Jonathan Breznican -From EW- saw Les Miz and said: “Hathaway can win the Oscar” and even he chances his predictions, I know, he’s only one, but we can remember he was one of the Lincoln fans. At least for me, at this stage, it’s seems Hathaway’s to lose.
For best actress, even when I believe “Amour” will have bigger support as a film, I tend to think Cotillard is more likely -At least at this part of the stage- for the nomination. For the critics, even when Riva can win LAFCA and/or NSFC, I can see Cotillard winning NYFCC and even LAFCA. She’s more likely for the BFCA, GG and BAFTA -The British love R&B-, the only question mark is the SAG -But with Wallis disqualification it seems a spot open-. She has an excellent post-Oscar career, she’s a Hollywood star and the last but interesting part – She’s the only contender free to making a full campaign for all the contendes -Lawrence, Dench and Knightley are on set, Chastain is in Broadway, Riva can’t make full campaign for her age and Wallis is at school-.
Roger(Quote) (Reply)
Willie
November 11, 2012 at 2:08 pm
if there is one film to win 3 acting Oscars this year it is Lincoln.
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Caddie
November 11, 2012 at 2:15 pm
I think it’s a good strategy not to push Hugh Jackman at this time. Then voters will think it’s their own idea, their personal choice, to nominate him.
Jackman consistently delivers in a variety of genres. With his first musical in London, he became an overnight sensation, immediately getting lead movie roles. With his first musical on Broadway, he won a Tony. We know that as well as singing, he can do the action hero part of the role, and play the loving father.
I think he will be heart-wrenching, and voters will think of him as their personal choice. They will also be pleased to nominate someone they like and respect, who likes and respects them (eg. Good Oscar host). They also may not get the opportunity to nominate him again for years.
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Jamie
November 11, 2012 at 2:21 pm
No love from me for The Master. Way too much navel fuzz gazing without any real reason for the audience to care. I still think this will come down to Lincoln and Les Mis for Picture and Director. I agree with Caddie that we haven’t seen Jackman yet and until I do I can’t settle on him or DDL. I like Washington but there simply isn’t enough different about either the film or role to garner Actor. Cotillard for Actress but I want to wait for Samantha Barks before handing supporting over to either Hathaway or Fields.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
Eric M.
November 11, 2012 at 2:31 pm
I don’t think John Goodman was that impressive in Argo; I would prefer to see Cranston nominated but I doubt that would happen.
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Mel
November 11, 2012 at 3:15 pm
This early word that Jackson is the standout in Django, are you referring to Kris Tapley´s source? I´m asking since I saw your name in the comments section at Hitfix. But, from what I understand, the source is not saying that Jackson is the standout. He´s saying that Jackson stands out because he´s much better than he´s been for a long time, “not phoning it in”.
Mel(Quote) (Reply)
Rohit Ramachandran
November 12, 2012 at 5:53 am
The trailers are hiding Waltz and Jackson. They show more of Dicaprio and Foxx. Take a hint or two.
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Genadijus
November 11, 2012 at 4:25 pm
It becomes really interesting.
In Leading actress category N. Watts and J. Chastain are going stronger and stronger with every week as they were not included in the real contenders list at the begining of fall season.
The same with Leading actors, J. Hawks can lose his nomination, I would include him for Golden Globes, but Oscars looks so unpredictable. H. Hunt is not a contender for me anymore. B. Cooper and A. Hopkins looks really good in that company. I’m not so sure about D. Washington. I didn’t like his performance.
Supporting acting categories are absolutely indetermined.
Genadijus(Quote) (Reply)
Kiwi
November 11, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Can Silver Linings Playbook win best film? As part of the audience, I can say that I was immensely satisfied with the film and believe it will be considered a classic romantic comedy. However, I don’t think the Academy will reward a romcom. Aside from that, I find the best actress predictions pretty interesting. I haven’t seen much of Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty trailer so I can’t say much but as of now, Jennifer Lawrence has that Oscar in her bag. If she ends up winning, what the hell would this do to her career?
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Rohit Ramachandran
November 11, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Would love to see Gere get nominated. And please, no Alan Arkin.
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NoName
November 12, 2012 at 3:16 am
To those of you naysayers who say the reception for ‘The Master’ was mixed, I would not call 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86/100 (Universal Acclaim) on Metacritic ‘mixed’ by any standard, it’s what we people would call positive. Also there are people who do push for this movie to be nominated (like Clayton here), but they are in a different camp compared to the ‘Argo’/'Lincoln’/'SLP’/'DU’ camp (such as yourselves). And finally do you really want to put your faith in AMPAS, an organisation that, let’s not forget, snubbed the likes of ‘Shame’, ‘Senna’ and ‘Drive’ (it only got a nomination in a very minor category) but instead gave all the glory to stuff like ‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’ and ‘The Greatest Show on Earth’. With them it’s all formula and no genuine innovation.
NoName(Quote) (Reply)
Jamie
November 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
86% critics – 60% audience. So “experts” vs. people who actually pay to see movies. Maybe in 25 years those naysayers will come to their senses and decide The Master was a masterpiece after all. Emmmm Probably not.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
NoName
November 12, 2012 at 11:05 am
Remember this though… most audiences know absoloutely fuck all about movies. They are like the members of the academy, they haven’t seen enough movies and are, in most respects, lazy as hell. I intend to go into the film biz one day and I’m sure as hell ain’t gonna put my faith in them if they’re continuing to get dumber as generations pass. As someone on some website once said: ‘Critics know, audiences blow’.
NoName(Quote) (Reply)
Jamie
November 12, 2012 at 11:26 am
I love movies and have a major criterion when I walk out of a film, “A year from now will I want to see this again?” or for the really good ones, “A decade from now when clicking through channels, will I want to stop for at least a few minutes of wonderful?”.
When you reach you lofty goals, you might want to consider that the audience that “blows” will be paying your salary. What you produce doesn’t have be cheap, mass entertainment, but it does have to be something they want to buy.
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Will
November 13, 2012 at 3:26 am
Wow, I was impressed by the Les Mis trailer, I think that is going to knock the Academy’s socks off. Django doesn’t seem like it will be a huge Oscar player even with the Christmas release date and I think Hawkes will gain enough support with the critics awards to give him a nom.
I think Gere’s campaign is starting to heat up and I would love to see him get an Oscar nod for a great performance and movie like Arbitrage. Still, I think the biggest surprise and possible winner for Best Picture is Zero Dark Thirty. Both trailers have been very impressive, actors are respected rising stars, Oscar winners controlling the project and a sense of mystery and immediacy that may hit voters and audiences especially well.
Will(Quote) (Reply)