The Sizing Up Series continues with a look at the slate of Best Supporting Actress contenders. As always, this is as large a grouping of the hopefuls as possible (excluding some no shot contenders and members of bigger ensembles…or else this could have 50 or more people in the article), categorizing them by their assumed likelihood of a nomination come the big morning. Oftentimes, more than a few of the Best Picture nominees wind up with some form of representation here, and this year I think there will be more than a little correlation, but of course absolutely anything is possible with the Academy. We shall see what happens in the end, but enough talk for the time being. I know what you’re all here for, so let’s go right ahead and take a look at the contenders for Best Supporting Actress and size up the field!
The “Wishful Thinking” Category
Right off the bat let me throw out a few higher profile names that have no chance of getting nominated this year (even if we thought some of them might have had a tiny shot at one point). I’d say that Elizabeth Banks in The Hunger Games, Annette Bening for Ruby Sparks, Kerry Bishe for Argo, Marion Cotillard for The Dark Knight Rises, Cody Horn in Magic Mike, Julia Stiles in Silver Linings Playbook, Charlize Theron in Snow White and the Huntsman, and Emma Watson for The Perks of Being a Wallflower are out. They all turned in fine work, but it’s just not the year and/or category for them. Those are a few ladies that you can safely disregard, but they’re certainly not the only ones. Moving on though, let’s go ahead and focus instead on the people who might actually have a decent shot at this, starting with, of course…the long shots for a nod.
The “Dark horse/Long shot” Category
This first grouping in particular consists of 10 supporting actresses that I think almost certainly won’t be nominees in the end, but aren’t out of the race completely yet and deserve a small mention at this point. They either have films that won’t really be able to make big headway in the race, performances that won’t appeal to the Academy strongly enough, or just don’t have any real traction to date to move them forward. Some of them are potentially bigger contenders than others and could wind up surprising you a little bit, but for me I’m inclined to bet against each and every one of them right now. The ladies in question here are:
Cate Blanchett – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Olivia Colman – Hyde Park on Hudson
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Bella Heathcoate – Not Fade Away
Isabelle Hupert – Amour
Elizabeth Olsen – Liberal Arts
Amanda Seyfried – Les Miserables
Lorraine Toussaint – Middle of Nowhere
Alicia Vikander – Anna Karenina
Olivia Williams – Hyde Park on Hudson
Right off the bat, let’s put Judi Dench’s candidacy to rest. Sure, she’s very good as M, but a Bond film just isn’t likely going to get an acting nomination. She’s easily the least likely of this group, though if you’re looking for a few who could be the best bets of the bunch, I say look to either Isabelle Hupert or Amanda Seyfried. In a perfect world we’d be hearing more about Elizabeth Olsen’s chances, but that’s the realities of the Oscar race for you. Regardless, these aren’t really the heavy hitters for the category.
The “Second Tier” Contenders
This next set of women are solidly in play for some attention in the Best Supporting Actress field, but have more than a few question marks impeding them from further progress at the moment. I think they all will wind up fading away by the time nomination morning rolls around, but it’s possible one or two of them could ride the precursor wave to a surprise nomination when all is said and done. There are 10 of these particular actresses that would like to be considered big time contenders. A good portion of them have been predicted for nods at some point this season, but I don’t see them as especially big ones right now, but like I said, they’re not too far off. The ones I see in this specific light are a varied bunch of women and happen to be as follows:
Doona Bae – Cloud Atlas
Emily Blunt – Looper
Pauline Collins – Quartet
Jane Fonda – Peace, Love, and Misunderstanding
Scarlett Johansson – Hitchcock
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
Shirley MacLaine – Bernie
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Susan Sarandon – Arbitrage
Kristen Stewart – On the Road
I think that from this bunch, Frances McDormand is the best bet since she’s the question mark, though obviously there’s a wellspring of support behind Doona Bae. Emily Blunt and Nicole Kidman likewise have their supporters, and I think Kristen Stewart could be more in play than some thing, but it looks like none of them will wind up making it, which is especially said for Shirley McLaine. A few months ago I actually think more of them had a shot, as I mentioned, but that’s just the name of the Oscar season game. Perhaps I’ve shortchanged some of these actresses, but perhaps not as well.
The “Pole Position” Contenders
Here, at last, we have the dozen most likely contenders for a Best Supporting Actress nomination in my eyes. My personal Academy Award predictions at this point feature 5 of the women in this grouping, though that’s hardly surprising I’m sure. They each have a lot going in their favor and seem to be in position for some strong precursor attention in the coming weeks. They’re also the stars of some of the more highly and hotly mentioned films of the year, and I don’t expect that to change too much as the precursors begin. The 12 particular thespians that I speak so highly of? They are:
Amy Adams – The Master
Samantha Barks – Les Miserables
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Jennifer Ehle – Zero Dark Thirty
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Laura Linney – Hyde Park on Hudson
Kelly Reilly – Flight
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Kerry Washington – Django Unchained
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Just about everyone have the likes of Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, and Helen Hunt making up the top 4 of their predictions, with each one a threat to win. Most see Hathaway as the frontrunner, though a strong case can be made for Adams and Hunt, with Field a bit behind but by no means out of the race. Going by that logic, it all comes down to a single open slot, with 8 ladies fighting for it. The safest bet seems to be the reliably nominated Laura Linney, but she’s got perhaps the least regarded flick of the lot. Samantha Barks or Jennifer Ehle could become huge contenders if they’re films become Academy favorites, while Kerry Washington has a better shot than most give her credit for. Ann Dowd is a long shot with strong support, and the trio of Kelly Reilly, Maggie Smith, and Jacki Weaver appear to be bringing up the rear. We’ll know more when the precursors begin, but there are lots to contemplate at the moment.
Obviously this list will compress itself just a bit as the weather continues to get colder, but for now there’s a lot to look at and consider in this assembly of supporting actresses. As previously stated, I think the ultimate nominees for Best Supporting Actress will come from my pole position contenders, but that’s always the case, and we shall see what happens in terms of that, since anything is possible. I’m very excited to see how the race shapes up and turns out, and I know you all are too. It’s going to be a lot of fun to get the precursor season started!
Comment and discuss!
Chad
November 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
My money is going to be on Samantha Barks. She’s gonna knock it outta the park and become a huge star. Mark. My. Words.
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Jamie
November 21, 2012 at 10:48 am
She spends a lot of time getting wet while singing “On My Own” and then sacrifices herself for unrequited love and dies in the arms of the man she adores soaked by tears from heaven while singing “A Little Drop of Rain” … What’s not to love?
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Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Jamie- Spoiler alert haha…
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Jamie
November 22, 2012 at 3:19 am
Ha! After 60 million global attendees over almost 30 years, not to mention the 150 years since the story was written, it’s a little hard to have spoilers.
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Joey Magidson
November 22, 2012 at 4:15 am
Plenty of people have never seen a play before, in any form, so it’s far better safe than sorry…
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Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Chad- It’s certainly possible…
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Molly
November 21, 2012 at 11:15 am
I am saddened to not see Doona Bae is sight. I have seen many, many films this year and she was without a doubt the best actress in a supporting role this year. Why can’t anyone see that?
Molly(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:54 pm
She’s right there in the second tier, as I mentioned in the piece. She’s hardly excluded…
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UBourgeois
November 21, 2012 at 11:17 am
Fun fact: Since 2000, there have only been four years (03, 04, 05, and 07) where Best Supporting Actress has not contained two performances from the same film. Since Samantha Barks is a reasonable possibility, I think it’s prudent to put her in a lineup with Hathaway, Adams, Hunt, and Field. Kerry Washington or Maggie Smith may sneak in there, probably in place of Barks, but I’m running with precedent on this one.
Also: couldn’t you have just put Doona Bae in the first category, just to give us hope?
UBourgeois(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Hardly a bad thing to go with…
I toyed with it, but she’s not quite there to me. Top 15 though for sure…
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Charlie
November 21, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Doona Bae is by far the best supporting actress this year
Charlie(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:55 pm
I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s very good…
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Matthew Barker
November 21, 2012 at 5:19 pm
If ever there was a role to draw a nom it’s Les Mis’ Fantine and, looking at what we’ve seen of Anne Hathaway playing the role and what she put herself through to play it, I think it looks good for her.
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Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:55 pm
There’s no question she’s in a good spot…
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Jeremy DC
November 21, 2012 at 6:25 pm
As of now The Master is my second favorite movie of the year and of course Amy Adams was solid in it. But I don’t understand why she is being considered as maybe the frontrunner and if it was up to me I wouldn’t even nominate her. Maybe if it was a weak year for this category then there would be a good shot but it’s really strong and I’d rather see Doona Bae and Judi Dench nominated.
Jeremy DC(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm
I don’t see her as the frontrunner, but merely one of the few with a solid chance to win…
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JamDenTel
November 21, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Salma Hayek deserves some recognition for her excellent work in the grossly underrated Savages.
JamDenTel(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 22, 2012 at 4:16 am
She’s the best thing about the movie, but that one’s just not happening…
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Mathew Rodriguez
November 22, 2012 at 7:46 pm
I would’ve thought you’d at least put Helena Bonham Carter for Les Mis somewhere in one of the categories.
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Joey Magidson
November 22, 2012 at 9:58 pm
I considered her, but that would imply 3 nods for the flick, and I definitely don’t see that happening…
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missionstatement1224
November 22, 2012 at 8:08 pm
I have to second the love given to Elizabeth Banks for Hunger Games and Emma Watson for Perks of Being a Wallflower. Those are probably my two favorite supporting performances of the year so far (although I think Watson could be considered a lead).
missionstatement1224(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 22, 2012 at 9:58 pm
The case could be made for her there I suppose, but it could go either way…
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oscarfan1
November 23, 2012 at 1:54 am
In the past 4 oscar seasons two actresses have always been nominated for the same film in the supporting category (Doubt – Up in the Air – The Fighter – The Help). If the trailer is anything to go by, Anne Hathaway and Samantha Barks stand a good chance of repeating the pattern.
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Joey Magidson
November 23, 2012 at 2:05 am
That’d be the film hat would do it this year for the ladies…
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Steve
November 24, 2012 at 7:16 pm
My predictions:
Samantha Barks
Sally Field
Anne Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Kelly Reilly
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Jamie
November 24, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Agree except for Kelly Reilly. I went for Jacki Weaver instead.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
November 25, 2012 at 5:35 am
Jamie- Either one is a longer shot, but still possible…
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Joey Magidson
November 25, 2012 at 5:34 am
Steve- Amy Adams’ exclusion is an interesting one…
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Jessie Makowski
November 27, 2012 at 2:35 am
Amy Adams would get my vote!
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Joey Magidson
November 27, 2012 at 12:55 pm
You’re not alone there…
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)