What a crazy morning. As Oscar tends to do, they delivered their annual “WTF?” but instead of them inserting their nominees, they took out the nominees. Insane. Simply insane. My reactions to the nominees are below:
Best Picture
• Amour
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty
I’m so happy I was wrong about Amour getting trumped by all the loud December openings. It’s well deserved. The only surprise (and to some it isn’t a surprise) is Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained making the cut here over Moonrise Kingdom, who many thought would make the cut. As we trickle down through every category, and if you already saw the Best Director lineup, this looks like a race between Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook at this point.
Prediction – 7 for 9 (missed Amour and Django for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Moonrise, and The Master at #10)
Predicted Winner – Lincoln
Snub – Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, The Impossible
Best Achievement in Directing
• Michael Haneke – Amour
• Ang Lee – Life of Pi
• David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
• Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
• Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
I spoke about the possibility of Benh Zeitlin sneaking in for Best Director when DGA was announced and his film is a director’s type of film. What’s more insane is it came at the expense of three big Oscar favorites, Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and David O. Russell. When it comes to Affleck, I discussed back in November that Oscar may not have fully forgiven him or take him seriously yet as a director to be taken seriously here. It’s sad because he’s delivered three solid films under his directorial belt that are worthy of citation. I’m glad Argo managed the Picture nom though but George Clooney as a Producer probably had something to do with that more than Affleck.
I can’t explain why Bigelow missed. Is it the woman card? The controversy surrounding the film at the moment? Not sure at all. Tom Hooper directing a musical and missing makes sense. They Academy at large doesn’t go all the way for musicals unless the Weinstein Company is pushing it or its 40 years ago. Congratulations Ang Lee, you are officially in the running to win your second Directing Oscar. Russell is in the heat of the race too. Can’t believe what we ended up with. Love years like this.
Prediction – 2 for 5 (only named Lee and Spielberg in favor of Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper)
Predicted Winner – Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Snub – Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
• Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
• Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
• Denzel Washington – Flight
I don’t hate John Hawkes in The Sessions. I like him very much actually and in any of the year, he might have been a lock to be nominated and even win. This year was just WAY too strong for a performance like this to make it through. The SAG snub might have really helped Phoenix and propel him forward ahead of him. We now have a serious Best Actor race with anyone winning except for Denzel Washington. It’s going to be interesting to see who The Weinstein Company decides to put all their money behind for Phase 2 of the season, Bradley Cooper or Joaquin Phoenix. Both would make deserving Oscar winners but both have hurdles to jump.
Silver Linings Playbook has some good momentum and Day-Lewis’ film has the most nominations and the most critics’ awards. Hugh Jackman’s winning chances seem to have disappeared with Hooper’s snub and Phoenix’s entry.
Prediction – 5/5 – YAY!
Predicted Winner – Joaquin Phoenix
Snub – I like the 5 but Logan Lerman and Jean-Louis Tringnant would be amazing additions.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
• Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
• Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
• Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
• Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Naomi Watts – The Impossible
At 22, Jennifer Lawrence is the youngest Actress to be nominated twice in Lead Actress. With SLP making a strong showing today and Zero Dark Thirty making a poor one, Lawrence may be able edge Chastain out in the end. Critics Choice Movie Awards tonight and SAG will be very telling for both of them but will not make anything final as we saw last year with Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Riva, Watts, and Wallis are wildcards here who can benefit from a split between the two frontrunners if it occurs.
I’m so glad Oscar passed on Hitchcock and Helen Mirren. She should have never been in the conversation anyway. In terms of Cotillard, who doesn’t deliver the best performance in her film, unlikable character and early peaking could have caused her omission. Riva is the oldest nominee ever in this category while Wallis is the youngest. Talk about making history.
Prediction – 3 for 5 (missing Riva and Wallis for Mirren and Cotillard)
Predicted Winner – Jennifer Lawrence
Snub – No chance in the world but Michelle Williams in Take this Waltz
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
• Alan Arkin – Argo
• Robert DeNiro – Silver Linings Playbook
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
• Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
All previous Oscar winners take up this category but not with Javier Bardem in the final slot, it was Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. I guess the switch-aroo by the Weinsteins was a smart move. The company has three of their own in this category. Any of these men could win but the edge has to be in Tommy Lee Jones’ favor since his film has the most nominations and he fills the “definition” of a supporting player. Hoffman and Waltz could easily be shifted lead, there are many who think Arkin’s nom is so-so. Perhaps it’s DeNiro vs. Jones but the former has two Oscars, more than anyone in the category.
I’m sad they went for Beasts of the Southern Wild as much as they did and still couldn’t find it in their hearts to place Dwight Henry in the lineup.
Prediction – 4 for 5 (missing Waltz for McConaughey)
Predicted Winner – Tommy Lee Jones
Snub – Dwight Henry and Eddie Redmayne
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams – The Master
• Sally Field – Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
• Helen Hunt – The Sessions
• Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Weaver did it. I knew she would but I didn’t have the balls to predict it. Poor Ann Dowd! Hathaway should and will win this in a walk unless the fact that Adams has nomination #4 under her belt with no win will trigger some sympathy votes.
Prediction – 3 for 5 (missing Adams and Weaver for Dowd and Smith)
Predicted Winner – Anne Hathaway
Snub – Doona Bae
Best Original Screenplay
• Amour – Michael Haneke
• Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
• Flight – John Latins
• Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
• Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
I thought the Weinstein power on The Intouchables would push it in this category but the film was completely shut out. Flight cracking the five over The Master is a slap in the face to Harvey. This is yet another category completely wide open. The fact that ZDT performed poorly tells me Boal could lose, plus he’s won before. Could Haneke pull a Pedro Almodovar and win his first Oscar here. His film is the only film nominated for Best Picture with a Director attached in this category.
Prediction – 2 for 5 OUCH!
Predicted Winner – Amour
Snub – The Master and Arbitrage
Best Adapted Screenplay
• Chris Terrio – Argo
• Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
• David Magee – Life of Pi
• Tony Kushner – Lincoln
• David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Many predicted this five but I wish Stephen Chbosky could have made it through in place of David Magee. I think whoever wins Picture, will win this category too unless they want to throw Benh Zeitlin a bone somewhere which could present an opportunity to do it here.
Prediction – 4 for 5 (missed Pi for Perks)
Predicted Winner – Silver Linings Playbook
Snub – The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Animated Feature
• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Pirates! Band of Misfits
• Wreck-It Ralph
Where the hell is The Painting? Eh…The Pirates? Seriously? Yuck.
Prediction – 4 for 5
Predicted Winner – Frankenweenie
Snub – The Painting and Rise of the Guardians
Best Foreign Language Film
• Amour
• Kon-Tiki
• No
• A Royal Affair
• War Witch
No Intouchables? Instead, No. Haha. Couldn’t resist.
Prediction – 3 for 5 (missing Royal and Witch for Intouchables and The Deep)
Predicted Winner – Kon-Tiki
Best Production Design
• Anna Karenina
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
Prediction – 4 for 5 (missing Pi for Cloud Atlas)
Predicted Winner: Lincoln
Snub – Cloud Atlas and Hyde Park on Hudson
Best Cinematography
• Anna Karenina
• Django Unchained
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall
Prediction – 4 for 5 (missing Django for The Master)
Predicted Winner – Life of Pi
Snub – The Master, The Grey, and Les Miserables
Best Costume Design
• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• Mirror Mirror
• Snow White & the Huntsman
Prediction – 5 for 5 YAY!
Predicted Winner – Anna Karenina
Snub – Hyde Park on Hudson
Best Film Editing
• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction – 4 for 5 (missing SLP for Les Miserables)
Predicted Winner – Argo
Snub – The Dark Knight Rises and Les Miserables
Best Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling
• Hitchcock
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Les Miserables
Prediction – 1 for 3 (only naming Hitchcock)
Predicted Winner – Les Miserables
Snub – The Impossible and Lincoln
Best Sound Mixing
• Argo
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall
Prediction – 2 for 5
Predicted Winner – Skyfall
Snub – The Dark Knight Rises
Best Sound Editing
• Argo
• Django Unchained
• Life of Pi
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction – 2 for 5
Predicted Winner – Life of Pi
Snub – The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers
Best Visual Effects
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Life of Pi
• The Avengers
• Prometheus
• Snow White & the Huntsman
Prediction – 3 for 5
Predicted Winner – Life of Pi
Snub – Cloud Atlas
Best Original Score
• Anna Karenina – Dario Marianelli
• Argo – Alexandre Desplat
• Life of Pi – Mychael Danna
• Lincoln – John Williams
• Skyfall – Thomas Newman
Prediction – 3 for 5
Predicted Winner – Life of Pi
Snub – Cloud Atlas
Best Song
• Chasing Ice – “Before My Time”
• Les Miserables – “Suddenly”
• Life of Pi – “Pi’s Lullaby”
• Skyfall – “Skyfall”
• Ted – “Everybody Needs a Friend”
Predicted – 2 for 5
Predicted Winner – Les Miserables
Snub – Any Django Song
Best Documentary Feature
• 5 Broken Cameras
• The Gatekeepers
• How to Survive a Plague
• The Invisible War
• Searching for Sugar Man
Predicted – 3 for 5
Predicted Winner – Searching for Sugar Man
Snub – The House I Live In
Best Animated Short Subject
• Adam and Dog
• Fresh Guacamole
• Head over Heels
• Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
• Paperman
Predicted:3 for 5
Predicted Winner – Paperman
Best Documentary Short Subject
• Inocente
• Kings Point
• Mondays at Racine
• Open Heart
• Redemption
Predicted: 4 for 5
Predicted Winner – Mondays at Racine
Best Live Action Short
• Asad
• Buzkashi Boys
• Curfew
• Death of a Shadow
• Henry
Predicted – 2 for 5
Predicted Winner – Death of a Shadow
Overall I predicted 79 out of 118 in every category. That’s meh but this was a wide-open year and I expect everyone else is somewhat around that.
Our recorded Power Hour from today should be up later today and we will be recording again on Sunday to discuss all the nominee in-depth.
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21 Comments
I can only hope that the Actors voting will do the absolute right thing and give Hugh Jackman the award. He worked for it. He was a master in the role. He deserves it. No other performance comes anywhere close to the effort required to deliver their film to the screen. The other actors are good. This year Hugh was magnificent.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
I highly disagree. I am normally impressed with Jackman (having seen him in a few broadway show (IE: Oklahoma) ). I really thought that he would be great in Les Mis, but he turned out to be just as weak as all the other performers. I thought he was terribly off key with his singing at times, granted, that doesn’t really have much to do with “Acting” but still keeps him from standing out in my opinion
Phill(Quote) (Reply)
I know this sounds mean but I get it already you think Hugh Jackman was the best actor this year. You don’t need to go onto every article and repeat that over and over again.
Ivan(Quote) (Reply)
I know this sounds mean but I get it already!!! You think Hugh Jackman gave the best performance. You don’t need to go on almost every article and repeat that over and over again.
P.S He isn’t.
Ivan(Quote) (Reply)
‘Les Mis’ missing out on Directing and Screenplay is not too surprising. Ten years back, when ‘Chicago’ won Best Picture, it was ‘The Pianist’ which took home Best Actor, Screenplay, and Director. And if you ask me, the ‘Les Mis’ people are perfectly content with their eight nominations (unlike the rest of Hollywood which over-analyses stuff like this). And, Tom Hooper has already won an Oscar for directing so I don’t think he would be too perturbed.
Today’s nomination also shows that if Hugh Jackman gets his hands on the right part, he can work wonders with the role (he seriously needs to put a break on those Wolverine movies). But, it would be a coup of sorts if Jackman (out of the blue) ends up winning. The main reason for it is that the finest ever Jean Valjean on stage – Colm Wilkinson (who plays the Bishop in the film) – also got nominated for a Tony and an Olivier Award for the very same role as Jackman, but he never won those big awards. So, in that aspect, Hugh Jackman winning an Oscar would be considered extremely ‘outrageous’ and kind of disrespectful as well (especially since Colm Wilkinson himself didn’t win a Tony or an Olivier award).
Well done, SLP. 4/4 in acting. And I’m so happy to see David O. Russell being nominated for directing!!
In the coming days, pages and pages will be written about the ‘snubs’ of Bigelow and Affleck. I am pleased to say that for Foreign Film, I got 4 out of 5 correctly – I had incorrectly predicted ‘The Intouchables’, and as per my predictions, ‘War Witch’ got nominated in its place.
Finally, Clayton, you seriously think ‘Suddenly’ will actually win Original Song, ahead of ‘Skyfall’? And, am I the only person who seems let down by the complete absence of ‘The Dark Knight Rises’? I mean, it’s not THAT bad a film. I had actually predicted it for cinematography, and a few other technical categories
Divya(Quote) (Reply)
You’re predicting Kon-Tiki to win Foreign Language over Amour? How do you figure?
UBourgeois(Quote) (Reply)
it got nominated for Best Picture, so their will be people who will vote for it there but not in Foreign Language category.
Curtis D.(Quote) (Reply)
That does not seem backed by facts. The two movies I can think of nominated for both Best Foreign and Best Picture in the same year – Life is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger – both won the foreign film Oscar. Am I missing something?
Steven Paulson(Quote) (Reply)
I think Bradley Cooper could win Best Actor…
Something tells me there might be a vote split for Lead Actress… Who knows, maybe even Quvenzhané Wallis could win!!!
A Tommy Lee Jones win would be kinda boring…
Jacki Weaver benefited from being in SLP. Ann Dowd´s film got mixed reviews. Unless Anne Hathaway sweeps the next awards, I´m not sure this is hers in a walk…
Something tells me Spielberg won´t win Oscar number 3… Yet. At least I hope he dosn´t.
Did anyone else notice that Emma Stone looked like she already knew who the nominees would be? That “he´s won before”, “he´s won before”, “he´s won before” – for Best Supporting Actor – was completely rehearsed. As was her remark about the age difference between Wallis and Riva in the Lead Actress competition…
Mikael(Quote) (Reply)
I agree, but it’s also possible that it was written on the teleprompter as well. Maybe they had a rehearsal earlier (although unlikely at 5:30) or the night before. I also noticed a sneaky look on Mcfarlene’s face when he began to announce directors. I think he knew there was an upset coming…
Phill(Quote) (Reply)
I’d put money on Phoenix winning. Not sure they’re going to be handing out third trophies to Lewis, Spielberg, or Field this year and he’s the sole beneficiary of that in my mind. Should Denzel be in there? Probably not, but who was going to vote Hawkes if they had to choose between the two of them? Cooper winning wouldn’t be awful. I was really surprised how great he was in the movie…and this may be the only role for this kind of attention any time soon. Jackman winning would probably be almost as silly as Washington winning. He can sing, yes, and act. But he just wasn’t all that convincing. Especially when you over emote and botch Bring Him Home (for me at least). The thought that he outdoes some of the other nominees is odd. Also, rewarding him wouldn’t make the oversight of Wilkinson go away since Wilkinson towers over Jackman with his little parts in Les Mis on top of the original Valjean performance. Even Lewis is better and I think he gets a little hokey in Lincoln at times.
steve(Quote) (Reply)
Anyone else notice how Emma Stone looked like she knew the nominees before hand with that “he´s won before”, “he´s won before”, “he´s won before” – for Best Supporting Actor – and her remarks regarding the age difference between Wallis and Riva for Best Actress?
Mikael(Quote) (Reply)
I honestly think they were just improvising. If you notice after her first “he’s won before” the second remark comes a little late as if she is unsure if it was ever appropriate to begin with. Once she keeps going I thought it was sweet how MacFarlene helped her with a quick remark at the end. It was colorful, they were doing something new. It worked!
GL(Quote) (Reply)
Thanks for your reactions, Clayton. I think you may have contradicted yourself at one point, but I may have misread. You predict Lincoln for BP and director, but in your analysis of Adapted Screenplay, you say it is likely the BP winner will also win in that category, and you chose SLP.
Regardless, I think Kushner will win. I think Lincoln will win. I was iffy about Spielberg winning until I saw the actual final lineup, and now would be quite surprised if he did not win.
Duke(Quote) (Reply)
I’m not sure who “runs” this site now, I know Clayton Davis is the editor… Just wanted to say I love this site. I’ve been a loyal reader since it was “The Oscar Igloo”
….. long long ago. Always a good read, and this is my favorite time of year to come back.
Alex(Quote) (Reply)
Definitely an Oscar season to remember. Very colorful and full of passionate choices. I have to give it to you Clayton, you stuck with Watts from the beginning, even before some major bloggers would. Usually people are always confused as to what does it mean for the Academy to really like a film, and that equals Jacki Weaver’s nomination. They really liked SLP. Or Life of Pi scoring 11 nominations, they really liked that movie. As for Lincoln, many predicted 13/14 but I see the 12 nominations almost as a defeat for it. No make-up which was something quiet huge for the film, ala the Iron Lady, could be a sign that the film won’t sweep. However at this point it is DDL’s to lose. As well as Hathaway. Now it’s official Lawrence and Chastain will duke it out on what can be said to be the most contested Best Actress race in a long time.
GL(Quote) (Reply)
Last year was pretty heated as well with Davis & Streep going back and forth. Davis winning BFCA before Streep triumphed at the Golden with Davis winning the SAG before Streep again won the BAFTA and eventually the Oscar. Interestingly it was the most mostly 3rd place finisher Michelle Williams that was scooping up most oft he critic’s awards. I am hoping for a Chastain win or though a Wallis surprise would not beha tt bad either. Something with Lawrence’s performance doesn’t feel right with me granted it was a great performance (CATEGORY FRAUD anyone?)
kailor(Quote) (Reply)
I konow it’s not this subject, but lease someone send a working stream for the Critics’ Choice Awards.
Will you write predictions?
markm9274(Quote) (Reply)
Well Bigelow and to a lesser extent Affleck not getting nominated is what bothers me most. I thought best picture was a three horse race between Lincoln, Argo, and Zero Dark Thirty and it appears to still be a three horse race, but instead it’s between Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. What I fear though is Lincoln having a huge night and winning many. Maybe even Sally Field over Anne Hathaway. I love me some Sally Field but I’m kind of getting tired of her talking about fighting for Lincoln and every other thing she’s had to do in her career. I wouldn’t vote for Tommy Lee Jones but at least this oscar would be more deserved than the one for The Fugitive. Glad to see a foreign film nominated for best picture. The Intouchables not making best foreign film surprised me. Lastly, I thought SLP would not do well and end up with only an adapted screenplay and actress nomination. Boy do I feel like an idiot.
Jeremy DC(Quote) (Reply)
No Bigelow? Now Affleck? It isn’t a stretch for the Academy to snub the two best directed pictures of the year anymore. And that realization is uncompromising and sad.
JohnGrekko(Quote) (Reply)
Doona Bae was the biggest snub in the acting categories. The fact that nothing from Cloud Atlas was nominated is baffling.
Julia C(Quote) (Reply)