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  • Golden Globe Awards Predictions – Who Gets a Boost for Oscar?

    What will Hollywood's favorite party deliver us tomorrow evening?

    January 12, 2013

    wpid-golden-globes2009The Hollywood Foreign Press Association will deliver their winners in the 70th annual Golden Globe Awards hosted by nominees Tina Fey and Amy Poehler.  The SNL alumni will be taking the reigns from three-time host Ricky Gervais and expectations are very high in terms of what this team can deliver.

    As Oscar nominations were announced last Thursday morning and the Critics Choice Movie Awards handed out their favorites the same day, the Golden Globes have an opportunity to start (or stop) some momentum for many actors and films.  Is Daniel Day-Lewis’ Oscar all sewn up at this point?  Can Argo manage to overcome the snub of director Ben Affleck?  Can any Animated Feature become the frontrunner in the category?  While we won’t get clear answers on Sunday night, the fog will settle where we can see certain aspects begin to stand out.

    Before anyone attempts to crucify anyone for the predictions keep in mind:

    1. The last time the Golden Globe Winner for Picture (Drama) won the Oscar was Slumdog Millionaire (2008), and EVERYONE knew that film was winning in the end.  No obvious frontrunner this year.

    2. They love stars but international projects warm their heart more, that is why I suspect Ang Lee and Life of Pi might have a stronger showing here than many think.

    3. Don’t be surprised if Ben Affleck wins Best Director becoming the first person since Clint Eastwood won for Bird (1988) to win the award but not be nominated for an Academy Award.  What’s more ironic is Eastwood was also an actor-turned-director.  Sign of great things to come in the future from Affleck?

    4. If Leonardo DiCaprio manages a win from the HFPA, which he very well might, he’d be the first person since Richard Benjamin in The Sunshine Boys (1975), over 35 years, to win the Globe for Supporting Actor and not be nominated for Oscar.  Something noteworthy, Benjamin was passed over in favor of co-star George Burns, who DID win the Oscar.  Could that spell an Oscar win for co-star Christoph Waltz?

    5. With the controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, I have a sneaking suspicion that Jessica Chastain could lose at the Globes leaving an opening for Naomi Watts to squeeze in.  If Chastain does lose, count Jennifer Lawrence (or possibly Emmanuelle Riva) as the next Oscar winners for Best Actress.

    6. The race between Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miserables is the tightest of all films, especially in Best Picture and Best Actor.  I think the fact that Les Mis is an internationally beloved musical and SLP is as American as movies can get, they may stick with what makes them feel comfortable.

    Listed below are the final predictions for the winners.  Make sure to include your own in the comment section below and tell us who you think will win?

    Best Motion Picture (Drama)

    • Argo
    • Django Unchained
    • Life of Pi
    • Lincoln
    • Zero Dark Thirty

    Prediction: Life of Pi
    Alternate: Lincoln
    Surprise: Argo

    Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    • Les Miserables
    • Moonrise Kingdom
    • Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    • Silver Linings Playbook

    Prediction: Les Miserables
    Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
    Surprise: Moonrise Kingdom

    LINCOLNBest Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role (Drama)

    • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    • Richard Gere – Arbitrage
    • John Hawkes – The Sessions
    • Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
    • Denzel Washington – Flight

    Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix
    Surprise: John Hawkes

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role (Drama)

    • Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
    • Marion Cotillard – Rust & Bone
    • Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
    • Naomi Watts – The Impossible
    • Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea

    Prediction: Jessica Chastain
    Alternate: Naomi Watts
    Surprise: Rachel Weisz

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role (Musical or Comedy)

    • Jack Black – Bernie
    • Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
    • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
    • Ewan McGregor – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    • Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson

    Prediction: Hugh Jackman
    Alternate: Bradley Cooper
    Surprise: Jack Black

    Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings PlaybookBest Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role (Musical or Comedy)

    • Emily Blunt – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    • Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    • Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    • Maggie Smith – Quartet
    • Meryl Streep – Hope Springs

    Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence
    Alternate: Judi Dench
    Surprise: Meryl Streep

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

    • Alan Arkin – Argo
    • Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
    • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
    • Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
    • Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

    Prediction: Christoph Waltz
    Alternate: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

    • Amy Adams – The Master
    • Sally Field – Lincoln
    • Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
    • Helen Hunt – The Sessions
    • Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy

    Prediction: Anne Hathaway
    Alternate: Sally Field
    Surprise: Nicole Kidman

    Life of Pi (Ang Lee)Best Director – Motion Picture

    • Ben Affleck – Argo
    • Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
    • Ang Lee – Life of Pi
    • Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
    • Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

    Prediction: Ang Lee
    Alternate: Ben Affleck
    Surprise: Steven Spielberg

    Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

    • Argo – Chris Terrio
    • Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
    • Lincoln – Tony Kushner
    • Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
    • Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

    Prediction: Silver Linings Playbook
    Alternate: Lincoln
    Surprise: Argo

    Best Original Song

    • Act of Valor – “For You” – Monty Powell, Keith Urban
    • The Hunger Games – “Safe and Sound” – Taylor Swift, John Paul White, Joy Williams, T-Bone Burnett
    • Les Miserables – “Suddenly” – Claude-Michel Schönberg, Alain Boublil, Herbert Kretzmer
    • Skyfall – “Skyfall” – Adele, Paul Epworth
    • Stand Up Guys – “Not Running Anymore” – Jon Bon Jovi

    Prediction: Skyfall – “Skyfall”
    Alternate: Les Miserables – “Suddenly”
    Surprise: The Hunger Games – “Safe and Sound”

    lincoln.jpgBest Original Score

    • Anna Karenina – Dario Marianelli
    • Argo – Alexandre Desplat
    • Cloud Atlas – Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tywker
    • Life of Pi – Mychael Danna
    • Lincoln – John Williams

    Prediction: Lincoln
    Alternate: Life of Pi
    Surprise: Cloud Atlas

    Best Animated Film

    • Brave
    • Frankenweenie
    • Hotel Transylvania
    • Rise of the Guardians
    • Wreck-It Ralph

    Prediction: Frankenweenie
    Alternate: Brave
    Surprise: Wreck-It Ralph

    amour_thumb.jpgBest Foreign Language Film

    • Amour
    • The Intouchables
    • Kon-Tiki
    • A Royal Affair
    • Rust & Bone

    Prediction: Amour
    Alternate: The Intouchables
    Surprise: Rust & Bone

    Best Television Series – Drama

    • “Boardwalk Empire”
    • “Breaking Bad”
    • “Downton Abbey”
    • “Homeland”
    • “The Newsroom”

    Prediction: Homeland
    Alternate: Breaking Bad
    Surprise: Downton Abbey

    Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    • “The Big Bang Theory”
    • “Episodes”
    • “Girls”
    • “Modern Family”
    • “Smash”

    Prediction: Modern Family
    Alternate: Girls
    Surprise: Episodes

    game_changeBest Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

    • “Game Change”
    • “The Girl”
    • “Hatfields & McCoys”
    • “The Hour”
    • “Political Animals”

    Prediction: Game Change
    Alternate: Hatfields & McCoys
    Surprise: The Girl

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama

    • Steve Buscemi – “Boardwalk Empire”
    • Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”
    • Jeff Daniels – “The Newsroom”
    • Jon Hamm – “Mad Men”
    • Damien Lewis – “Homeland”

    Prediction: Damien Lewis
    Alternate: Jon Hamm
    Surprise: Bryan Cranston

    claire-danes-homelandBest Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama

    • Connie Britton – “Nashville”
    • Glenn Close – “Damages”
    • Claire Danes – “Homeland”
    • Michelle Dockery – “Downton Abbey”
    • Julianna Marguilles – “The Good Wife”

    Prediction: Claire Danes
    Alternate: Julianne Marguilles
    Surprise: Michelle Dockery

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    • Alec Baldwin – “30 Rock”
    • Don Cheadle – “House of Lies”
    • Louie C.K. – “Louie”
    • Matt LeBlanc – “Episodes”
    • Jim Parsons – “The Big Bang Theory”

    Prediction: Louie C.K.
    Alternate: Alec Baldwin
    Surprise: Matt LeBlanc

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

    • Zooey Deschanel – “New Girl”
    • Lena Dunham – “Girls”
    • Tina Fey – “30 Rock”
    • Julia Louis-Dreyfuss – “Veep”
    • Amy Poehler – “Parks and Recreation”

    Prediction: Tina Fey
    Alternate: Amy Poehler
    Surprise: Lena Dunham

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

    • Kevin Costner – “Hatfields & McCoys”
    • Benedict Cumberbatch – “Sherlock”
    • Woody Harrelson – “Game Change”
    • Toby Jones – “The Girl”
    • Clive Owen – “Hemingway & Gelhorn”

    Prediction: Kevin Costner
    Alternate: Woody Harrelson
    Surprise: Clive Owen

    jessicalange_asylumBest Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

    • Nicole Kidman – “Hemingway & Gelhorn”
    • Jessica Lange – “American Horror Story: Asylum”
    • Sienna Miller – “The Girl”
    • Julianne Moore – “Game Change”
    • Sigourney Weaver – “Political Animals”

    Prediction: Julianne Moore
    Alternate: Jessica Lange
    Surprise: Nicole Kidman

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television

    • Max Greenfield – “New Girl”
    • Ed Harris – “Game Change”
    • Danny Huston – “Magic City”
    • Mandy Patinkin – “Homeland”
    • Eric Stonestreet – “Modern Family”

    Prediction: Ed Harris
    Alternate: Eric Stonestreet
    Surprise: Max Greenfield

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television

    • Hayden Panettiere – “Nashville”
    • Archie Punjabi – “The Good Wife”
    • Sarah Paulson – “Game Change”
    • Maggie Smith – “The Good Wife”
    • Sofia Vergara – “Modern Family”

    Prediction: Maggie Smith
    Alternate: Sarah Paulson
    Surprise: Sofia Vergara

    Comment, discuss, and include your own predictions!

    About Clayton Davis


    Clayton Davis is the respected and esteemed AwardsCircuit.com editor. Clayton has become a proud member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to awards season show, The Critics Choice Movie Awards. Most recently, Clayton is a now an active member of the International Press Academy, which hosts the popular Satellite Awards as well as the newly integrated Broadcast Television Journalists Association, which hosts the Critics Choice Television Awards.

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    13 Comments

    1. This has got to be one of the most baffling Oscar seasons I can remember. There are so many different avenues for this race to go in, and I absolutely love it. I can’t remember the last time there was so much up in the air, and it makes for a fun time at trying to predict things. I hope the winners of these major prizes in the next couple of weeks aren’t so homogenized as they’ve previously been.

      I’ll stick with just the film categories for predictions, but I will also say that I honestly have no idea who will win Supporting Actor or Director. I think anyone in those categories could take it. So here are my semi-confident predictions:

      Best Picture (Drama): Lincoln
      Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): Silver Lining Playbook
      Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
      Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
      Best Actress (Drama): Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
      Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
      Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
      Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
      Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
      Best Screenplay: Lincoln
      Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
      Best Original Score: Life of Pi
      Best Original Song: “Skyfall” – Skyfall
      Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

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    2. My sure to be wrong picks…

      Best Picture (Drama): Argo
      Alternate: Lincoln
      Upset: Zero Dark Thirty

      Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): Les Miserables
      Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
      Upset: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

      Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
      Alternate: Denzel Washington
      Upset: Joaquin Phoenix

      Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
      Alternate: Bradley Cooper
      Upset: Jack Black

      Best Actress (Drama): Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
      Alternate: Marion Cotillard
      Upset: Naomi Watts

      Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
      Alternate: Meryl Streep
      Upset: Judi Dench

      Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
      Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones
      Upset: Christoph Waltz

      Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
      Alternate: Sally Field
      Upset: Nicole Kidman

      Best Director: Ben Affleck – Argo
      Alternate: Steven Spielberg
      Upset: Ang Lee

      Best Screenplay: Lincoln
      Alternate: Django Unchained
      Upset: Argo

      Best Animated Feature: Brave
      Alternate: Frankenweenie
      Upset: Wreck-It-Ralph

      Best Original Score: Cloud Atlas
      Alternate: Anna Karenina
      Upset: Lincoln

      Best Original Song: “Skyfall” – Sky fall
      Alternate: Les Misérables
      Upset: Stand Up Guys

      Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
      Alternate: The Intouchables
      Upset: Rust & Bone

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      • Hey Joey,

        What do you think of Clayton, isolating his loyal bloggers tonight by changing over to the LIVE Blog right in the middle of the show. Truly disgusting !!!

        Anne

        Hopefully, some of you can talk some sense into him.

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    3. Anyone feel like Adele is now the frontrunner instead of Les Mis for Song?

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      • Adele had always been the front-runner ever since the Skyfall song got released. But the Academy has been known to make some crazy choices for Original Song in the past.

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    4. Argo is taking the globes.

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    5. I think Hathaway is on top for the Oscar race, but Field can get it just as easily too. A very interesting Oscar race this year. Even supporting actor can go to almost any of them. I hope there is a blog for the Globes tonight so we can comment.

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      • I saw Les Mis yesterday and the ONLY thing that can stop Hathaway from winning is her limited screen-time. But even then, her performance left such an impact in the film. I mean, you can’t fault her performance at all. Leaving aside ‘I Dreamed a Dream’, that had to be one of the most heart-breaking death scenes I’ve ever watched. I don’t cry while watching films, and I actually shed a tear.

        Sally Field can win only if the Academy decides that she deserves to be awarded a 3rd Oscar. And Helen Hunt has already won one. Amy Adams could grab some votes since it’s her 4th nomination (with no wins). But, this race is completely Anne Hathaway’s to lose.

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    6. Please have the blog tonight so we can comment together.

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    7. I think ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ has an edge over ‘Les Miserables’ because David O. Russell has been nominated for screenplay. But, whoever wins Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) is not really going to have that much of an impact on the Oscars race. Like Hathaway, DDL is the front-runner in his own category. And it would take a catastrophe of gigantic proportions to dislodge him from his front-runner status. DDL is portraying Abraham Lincoln and Steven Spielberg is the Director. How can it ever go wrong?

      Rather than the Golden Globes, SAG is definitely a much better indicator of the front-runner for Best Actor. For the past 8 years, whoever has won the SAG Award for Best Male Leading Actor has gone on to win the Oscar as well. And I see that pattern repeating this year too.

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    8. Go “ARGO” and “WRECK-IT RALPH”!!!
      All the way to the Golden Globe, Guilds, and Oscars!!

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    9. Lol watch ZDT win this. They snubbed Bigelow during The Hurt Locker and voting was done before Oscar nomination.

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    10. Clayton Davis: Have to Diane. Only 22 people can be on this one. They changed their plans on me. So sorry.

      This is what Clayton told one of his loyal bloggers. Shouldn’t this all be planned out. And you know what, both can be going at the same time. Everyone knows that. Clayton has certainly become so full of himself and arrogant at times. Hey Clayton, do you still think Glenn Close will win for Albert Nobbs?

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