Since Oscar nominations, everyone is trying to get their heads around what each nomination means and which films are building momentum after the Critics Choice Movie Awards and Golden Globe Awards. On January 27, the Screen Actors Guild Awards will weigh in on their choices for the best of 2012 and then four weeks will go by until the Oscar ceremony. The only thing in between that time will the BAFTA on February 10 with Oscar ballots due nine days later.
The leading nomination tally for Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln and Ang Lee’s Life of Pi puts them in a prime position to battle it out for the rest of the season however, Ben Affleck’s Argo, a film without a Best Director nomination attached, has done exceedingly well in the televised award shows. Could Argo become the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to win the top award without a directing nomination? Argo has won the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe Awards which many are calling the kiss of death since only two films in the last ten years have gone on to win the Oscar.
The Weinstein Company will be putting a lot of money behind David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook where all four actors are nominated along with Adapted Screenplay, Director, and Film Editing. In the most recent podcast, I stated that Russell’s film is beginning to feel reminiscent of James L. Brooks’ Terms of Endearment in awards focus and aura. Granted Brooks’ film was a heavy drama with more unlikely key nominations like Sound and Art Direction.
The natural comparison to the season is 1999 when Saving Private Ryan went up against Shakespeare in Love, the big drama against the big dramedy. I wonder if because the race is so tight on all ends, if we are in store for a Picture-Director split? Could Ang Lee or Steven Spielberg win their directing categories with something like Argo and Silver Linings Playbook taking it in the end? You never know when it comes to a race as unpredictable as this has been. Perhaps the Writers and Producers Guild can offer some insight when they announce their winners soon enough.
Check out all the major Oscar Predictions (PICTURE, DIRECTOR, LEAD ACTOR, LEAD ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, ANIMATED FEATURE) and the race could be as of today. All the technical categories will be updated before the end of the week.
Include your own thoughts down below in the comment section.
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Tags: ang lee, Argo, David O. Russell, Editor, Life of Pi, oscar predictions, Silver Linings Playbook, Steven Spielberg
14 Comments
Sorry for the off-topic but what’s up with ACCA?
kovecsm(Quote) (Reply)
working on it. hopefully by tomorrow.
Clayton Davis(Quote) (Reply)
Best Picture – Argo
Affleck not being nominated for best director is the best thing to happen to Argo’s chances of winning best picture.
Best Director – Steven Spielberg
I really have no idea about this one. Spielberg sounds like a safe pick.
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress – Emmanuelle Riva
Knuckleheads won’t vote for Jessica Chastain because of the ridiculous controversy about the movie. Jennifer Lawrence just seems so un-Hollywood to me that people may not like her, she’s really young, and others may just think the performance is nothing special.
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
The Academy’s most boring pick of the night.
Supporing Actress – Anne Hathaway
Adapted Screenplay – Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Original Screenplay – Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
I’ve thought this for awhile and the only person who I can see winning instead is Haneke but he will already win for foreign language film. The more deserving Mark Boal won’t win because of the controversy, he just won three years ago, and they won’t award him over Tarantino a second time.
Best Animated – Brave
Terence mentioned on the podcast that voters could be lazy and just see pixar’s name and vote for it. That’s what I’m afraid of. I’d love to see it go to Paranorman though.
Jeremy DC(Quote) (Reply)
Like Many of You who do a terrific job at Awards Circuit, I am genuinely excited for the oscars this year based on the possible uncertainty in key races, even though Lincoln has the most nominations and Argo coming on strong, two movies that I really enjoyed. Just a breath of fresh air that for the first time in a long time there’s suspense
Tom(Quote) (Reply)
Although think of the Irony if Riva for Amour and Argo both win. We will have the oldest Best actress and Best picture with out a director nomination, both of which is held by previously stated Driving Miss Daisy
Tom(Quote) (Reply)
If they’re going to go ahead and consider voting for a film without a Best Director nomination…hell, why not just vote for Django? It’s a more interesting pick than Argo–or most of the nominees, honestly. More than that, it’s a film that has the potential to become iconic, like Rain Man, or Hannibal Lecter, or Forrest Gump…what about Argo really has that potential? At the heart of it, do you REALLY think the characters are that memorable, that the dialogue is particularly worth quoting (and I really don’t like the whole “Argo f**k yourself” gimmick), or that there are any scenes that will stick in your memory?
For that matter, can you say that about most of the nominees? I’m not IMPUGNING them, but how many of them will still grip viewers 10, 15 years down the line? I’ve heard the argument made that the Best Picture choice reflects “the moment”, yet last year’s winner was a silent film set in the 20s and early 30s, and the year before saw an old-fashioned, 30s-set British historical drama win. So while Django may be a period piece drawing on the Spaghetti Western tradition of decades past, it’s a visceral, ambitious effort from one of our most iconic modern directors. It’s not his best work (and I will maintain that Inglourious Basterds should have won over The Hurt Locker), but of the seven nominees I’ve seen thus far, it’s by far the best. (I haven’t yet seen Silver Linings Playbook or Amour.)
Will it win? Most likely not, although Original Screenplay seems like a much safer bet. But if it did, I think the Academy would be applauded for reaching a little outside of their comfort zone to pick a piece of brash entertainment. And they DID nominate it, after all.
JamDenTel(Quote) (Reply)
I’m kind of with you on Argo. I did like it and it will probably just miss my top ten of the year but the film is a bit too by the numbers I feel. The hollywood fluff that’s thrown on top of the true story is obvious and the changes in mood between his time in hollywood and his time in Iran was odd to me. Even though I wouldn’t give it to Django Unchained either, it certainly would be an interesting and memorable pick.
Jeremy DC(Quote) (Reply)
I’m sorry but Django over Zero Dark Thirty? If the Academy really wanted to do something different and show their real courage, they would pick ZDT. Django is not nearly as good as Inglourious Basterds (which shouldn’t have won Best Picture, Director, or Screenplay anyway) and if it wins best screenplay over ZDT, it will be purely about politics and spreading the wealth, not about what is actually the best screenplay.
Django is probably the least deserving out of the nominees I think (I haven’t seen Amour). Silver Linings is a wonder, go check it out. I can’t believe Life of Pi was so underseen. Now that is a truly bold and uncompromising film. Not the overstuffed, overcooked, and underwhelming Django.
Will(Quote) (Reply)
I intend to see Silver Linings Playbook within the next day or so.
While I agree that Django is not as good as IB (which is one of my all-time favorites), I think the script is as memorable and worthy as ZDT’s. The script for ZDT is fine, but Oscar-worthy? I didn’t really think so.
Life of Pi, for me, was a film that had some brilliant moments–the shipwreck scene, most of the scenes on the raft–and more than a few poor ones; the entire first act of the film, I thought, was largely extraneous. I know I’m in the minority there, but Life of Pi was a long, long way from my top 10.
JamDenTel(Quote) (Reply)
Would love to see Riva win and cap her career with this kind of recognition. Chastain is great too and she’ll have more chances. Lawrence…is in the wrong category. Picture/Director for me is now an anyone but Spielberg (and probably Zeitlin) race. I’ll call it now though, the next project Ben Affleck is directing is a period film about WW I era Boston based on a Dennis Lehane novel. As long as it isn’t awful he will win the next time hands down. It might even be able to be awful and be a more obvious apology award.
steve(Quote) (Reply)
I’d beg to differ that the Support Actor race is boring. Just because all the nominees are previous winners doesn’t negate the fact that at the moment, there is no frontrunner which makes predicting a winner all the more difficult. For me, that uncertainty is what makes it one of the more interesting categories this year.
Josh P.(Quote) (Reply)
PICTURE: Lincoln
DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg
ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
SUPPORTING ACTOR: the most wideopen category? Philip Seymour Hoffman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln
CINEMATOGRAPY: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Life of Pi
EDITING: another pretty wide open caegory. Life of Pi
COSTUME: Les Miserables
MAKE-UP: Les Miserables
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
SCORE: Life of Pi
SONG: Skyfall or Suddenly
Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained all go home empty-handed?
Jack(Quote) (Reply)
PICTURE: Lincoln
DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg
ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis
ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Django Unchained
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln
CINEMATOGRAPY: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Lincoln
EDITING: Argo
COSTUME: Les Miserables
MAKE-UP: Les Miserables
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
SCORE: Life of Pi
SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables
SOUND EDITING: Life Of Pi
SONG: Skyfall or Suddenly
Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook get shut out. Jessica and Jennifer will split the vote…mark my words.
Matty Negs(Quote) (Reply)
I’m beginning to lean towards an Argo – Haneke win. It’d be different … people would talk.
Thomas(Quote) (Reply)