The Screen Actors Guild will unveil their winners this Sunday night simultaneously on TBS and TNT. As a very good indicator for what can happen at the Oscars, all eyes will be on the actors to see what and who they crown. As a group, the SAG mania can be overtly misleading. In 2003, the Best Actor race was down to then three-time nominee Sean Penn for Mystic River and first-time nominee Bill Murray for Lost in Translation. Both gentlemen had won their Golden Globe categories respectively before being trumped over at the Screen Actors Guild Awards by pop culture tornado of Johnny Depp who had just received his first Oscar and SAG nominations for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. If anything Depp winning just proved that Murray would surely lose because any votes going to a comedy performance will be split between the two. Penn emerged victorious on Oscar night.
Last year, Oscar-winner George Clooney had started building momentum and seemed nearly assured to win his second Oscar for Alexander Payne’s The Descendants. Clooney had won the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards but on the night of the SAG awards, he lost to Jean Dujardin in the eventual Best Picture winner, The Artist. Those last three weeks of the season catapulted Dujardin to the forefront and the little-known French actor beat out megastars Clooney and Brad Pitt. I can’t help but think Daniel Day-Lewis could suffer the same fate on Sunday.
Day-Lewis has won two SAG awards thus far for There Will Be Blood (2007) and Gangs of New York (2002) and while Lincoln is making a strong case for itself to be a big winner on the night, there is a huge amount of popularity surrounding Hugh Jackman among fellow actors. His performance in Les Miserables is the actor’s finest work and it may be one of those times that voters may feel this is the only opportunity to reward him. You can make the same case for Bradley Cooper, who delivers the best performance in the group in my humble opinion, and who knows if Cooper can deliver the goods like this again. I’d keep an eye on both of those good-looking movie stars to stop DDL in his tracks.
Of the Female Actor categories, Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will be making a pull for them to jump ahead in their race. Zero Dark Thirty has a lot of vocal protesters declaring that the film will not receive any votes and encourages fellow voters to do the same. I was speaking with Staff Writer Michael Ward yesterday and both seem to think in a year of five, Zero Dark Thirty may not have made the cut. The film, as previously stated in past Oscar Circuits, is too controversial though an amazing work of cinema. David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook is on a whole other level right now. The film managed eight Academy Award nominations, is being pushed by the Weinstein Company, and is building serious momentum at the right time. Though the film is problematic in spots, most critics and audiences cite the fantastic performances of its wonderful ensemble of talented actors. Lawrence can become either the sole representation for the film or get the ball rolling for a potential sweep.
In the Supporting categories, Anne Hathaway, who I believe is being a tad overexposed at the moment, should be able to pull in her win for Les Miserables with no problem. If Hathaway were to lose, which is possible, two-time Oscar-winner Sally Field has only won a SAG award once for her role on ABC’s “Brothers and Sisters” in 2009, and some may want to throw one to her at this stage in her career. On the Male Actor side, any of the five supporting men can reign supreme. The fact that Javier Bardem is there is beyond my comprehension but his inclusion is telling and they obviously liked him/like Skyfall. Alan Arkin won a SAG award along with his cast members of Little Miss Sunshine but didn’t win his individual category. If Argo is going for an unprecedented upset at the Oscars, an Arkin win along with Cast Ensemble would place it firmly in position to do so.
Not realizing, this is the first time Robert DeNiro has received an individual SAG nomination in his illustrious career. His only other citation was part of the cast of Marvin’s Room (1996). If they feel this is their opportunity to reward his terrific career and his welcome back, DeNiro may find himself winning over presumed frontrunner Tommy Lee Jones and SAG favorite Philip Seymour Hoffman.
The predictions for the categories are down below and don’t be afraid to include your own in the comment section. Also, don’t forget to join us for our LIVE blog on Sunday night beginning at 7:30 pm Eastern Time.
Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble
Prediction: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Lincoln
Surprise: Argo
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Alternate: Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
Surprise: Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Surprise: Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Surprise: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Best Performance by a Female Actor in Supporting Role
Prediction: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Alternate: Sally Field for Lincoln
Surprise: Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy
Television Categories
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Prediction: Homeland
Alternate: Downton Abbey
Surprise: Breaking Bad
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Prediction: Modern Family
Alternate: 30 Rock
Surprise: The Office
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Prediction: Damien Lewis for Homeland
Alternate: Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad
Surprise: Jon Hamm for Mad Men
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Prediction: Claire Danes for Homeland
Alternate: Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey
Surprise: Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Asylum
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Prediction: Louie C.K. for Louie
Alternate: Alec Baldwin for 30 Rock
Surprise: Ty Burrell for Modern Family
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Prediction: Amy Poehler for Parks and Recreation
Alternate: Tina Fey for 30 Rock
Surprise: Sofia Vergara for Modern Family
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Mini-Series
Prediction: Kevin Costner for Hatfields & McCoys
Alternate: Ed Harris for Game Change
Surprise: Woody Harrelson for Game Change
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Mini-Series
Prediction: Julianne Moore for Game Change
Alternate: Nicole Kidman for Hemingway & Gelhorn
Surprise: Sigourney Weaver for Political Animals
Comment and discuss your predictions!
Jamie
January 24, 2013 at 5:20 pm
Cooper over Jackman? You have to be kidding. Cooper looked like himself from one end of the movie to the other. He had almost no emotional arc (angry man almost gets to not angry maybe). At no time did he have to do anything more difficult than run. SLP is a pleasant movie, but certainly not one for the ages.
Just give the SAG to Jackman who actually had to perform a massive emotional and physical range even better than DDL.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
Steve
January 24, 2013 at 8:39 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb and say you think that Les Miserables is a movie for the ages…
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Matt
January 24, 2013 at 9:57 pm
SLP may be problematic, but Les Miserables was a goddamn disaster. Cooper blows Jackman out of the water.
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Jamie
January 25, 2013 at 7:52 am
Yep $300 million in less than a month is a total disaster. SLP box office will drop like a rock and disappear as your basic Rom Com whose problems are mental illness rather than book sales.
Les Mis will still be bringing in the bucks and being studied for decades.
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
Divya
January 26, 2013 at 2:02 am
Exactly. The thing about movie musicals is that no matter how good or bad they may be, they will still be talked about in the years to come. To those who want to evaluate movie musicals solely on the basis of critic reviews, you should know that ‘Mamma Mia’ got worse critic reviews than ‘Les Mis’. Yet, ‘Mamma Mia’ (the movie musical) is still extremely popular amongst the public even today. Individual public opinions about movie musicals can range from extremely loving to complete loathing. But the fact remains that movie musicals will continue to be talked about in the future years to come, because of the very nature of such films. After all, did SLP or Lincoln or Argo or ZDT have singing? Like it or not, movie musicals (the good ones or the bad ones) have a charm of their own which you cannot ignore, no matter how much you may want to.
Divya(Quote) (Reply)
Joey Magidson
January 24, 2013 at 5:27 pm
Here’s my take:
Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble
Prediction: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Argo
Surprise: Lincoln
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Alternate: Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Surprise: Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Surprise: Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Surprise: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Best Performance by a Female Actor in Supporting Role
Prediction: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Alternate: Sally Field for Lincoln
Surprise: Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Joey Magidson(Quote) (Reply)
Jack
January 24, 2013 at 6:10 pm
CAST ENSEMBLE:
Prediction: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Lincoln
Surprise: Argo
ACTOR:
Prediction: Daniel Day Lewis
Alternate/Surprise: Hugh Jackman
ACTRESS:
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence
Alternate: Jessica Chastain
Surprise: Naomi Watts
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Alternate: Robert DeNiro
Surprise: Alan Arkin
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Prediction: Anne Hathaway
Alternate/Surprise: Sally Field
Jack(Quote) (Reply)
Greg
January 24, 2013 at 6:25 pm
I think Jennifer Lawrence will take it over Jessica Chastain
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paula gajardo
January 25, 2013 at 9:33 am
i will love to see that. There are two great actresses (Jessica and Jennifer) but i love jennifer lawrence, i wannna see her winning sunday night
paula gajardo(Quote) (Reply)
Jamie
January 24, 2013 at 6:35 pm
Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble –
Prediction – Lincoln
Alternate – Argo
Best Performance by a Male Actor
Prediction – Jackman
Alternate – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Performance by a Female Actor
Prediction – Jessica Chastain
Alternate – Naomi Watts
Best Performance by Male Supporting Actor
Prediction – Philip Seymour Hoffman
Alternate – Tommy Lee Jones
Best Performance by Female Supporting Actor
Prediction – Anne Hathaway
Alternate – Sally Field
Jamie(Quote) (Reply)
AJ
January 24, 2013 at 8:58 pm
I want Jessica Chastain to win so bad because I hate the fact that people don’t know her name, but I feel that in five years when someone wants to look at the culture of 2012 and to see what was the movie we liked, only SLP and Argo could do this amazing year for movies justice and I can’t see Argo winning Best Picture with the two other Oscars (Screenplay,BSA) and I feel that Alan Arkin is the only person who can’t win Best Supporting Actor.
AJ(Quote) (Reply)
Caddie
January 24, 2013 at 9:46 pm
Oddly enough, although I wouldn’t choose Les Miserables as Best Picture, I think I might choose it as Best Ensemble. I’m considering a high degree of difficulty (for all cast members), and a large enough cast of whom a significant number surmount the difficulty really well (Jackman, Hathaway, Redmayne, Barks), and a remaining bunch are also good (Tveit, Seyfried, Bonham Carter, Cohen). (Although I personally liked Russell Crowe, I know no-one else did).
The other casts are good, of course, but the degree of difficulty is not as high. And the producers of Lincoln shot themselves in the foot by only choosing 7(?) members of their 140+ cast.
But other factors might be more important. How many other actors they’ve worked with, longevity, reputation within the profession, etc.
Caddie(Quote) (Reply)
javi
January 25, 2013 at 1:33 am
Going off the SAG topic and into Oscar. I’m starting to get the feeling that Silver Linings Playbook will win Best pic at the Oscars along with David O’Russel. With 4 nominees going for their third statue on Oscar night; I just don’t see that happening. You have Spielberg going for his third (in directing), DDL, Sally Field and Robert DeNiro…I just don’t see it happening…None of them are Meryl Streep. They’re not as consistently good. DDL is always good but he makes movies once every blue moon. I think they’re going to spread the wins around.
Best Picture: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director: David O’Russel
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (I’m hoping…best performance of the year! DDL couldn’t do what Phoenix did in The Master)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supp Actress: Anne Hathaway
Just my thoughts.
javi(Quote) (Reply)
Mark Johnson
January 25, 2013 at 9:16 am
I agree with just about all you have other than these: Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook and Actress Comedy TV: Sofia Vergara – Modern Family.
Mark Johnson(Quote) (Reply)
Divya
January 26, 2013 at 2:27 am
Male Leading Actor: Whoever wins this one will end up winning the Oscar. Period. Why? This is a pattern that has been repeating itself for the last eight years – starting from Jamie Foxx to (most recently) Jean Dujardin, who went on to win the Oscar after winning SAG. If DDL wins this one on Sunday, it’s game, set and match. And the needless Cooper v/s Jackman debate can finally come to a rest. I mean, in order to favour one particular actor, is it really that necessary to pull down everybody else who is in contention? What’s wrong if DDL wins? On a side note, I do feel sorry for Joaquin Phoenix – for me, he gave the best performance of the year by ANY actor (male or female), but SAG doesn’t even think he’s good enough to be nominated by them.
Female Leading Actor: I’ll go for Jessica Chastain. And I think the actors may go for her as well. But this is not the most accurate predictor for the Oscars – anyone remember a certain actress called Meryl Streep who lost out on SAG last year, but won the Oscar in the end?
Male Supporting Actor: This could be a bit unpredictable – Christoph Waltz has not even been nominated here. And Philip Seymour Hoffman is a personal favourite of mine. This could be the category to look out for on Sunday.
Female Supporting Actor: Anne Hathaway has been gobbling up all the awards in this category. This race is entirely hers to lose. Of course, I won’t rule out a Field or Hunt upset which could open up the competition.
Ensemble: I’m watching out for this one as well – ‘cos it could show how popular Argo really is amongst the guilds. If Argo wins the PGA award and the SAG cast ensemble award, the best picture race is over IMHO (& a little bit of history could be created on Feb 24).
Divya(Quote) (Reply)
Chucho E. Quintero
January 26, 2013 at 4:15 am
Sally Field will win the SAG, just like Ruby Dee did back in 2008, and just like back then, it won’t mean a thing.
Chucho E. Quintero(Quote) (Reply)
missionstatement1224
January 26, 2013 at 8:09 pm
Javier Bardem totally deserves to be in there over at least Alan Arkin and Tommy Lee Jones (Hoffman is pretty amazing and haven’t seen De Niro). I like Arkin and Jones, and they were both good in their films, but Arkin could have done that role in his sleep, and I thought Spader and a couple other of the supporting players in Lincoln were actually better than Jones.
I’m not typically a Hoffman fan, but he blew me away here.
missionstatement1224(Quote) (Reply)