2014 Oscar Predictions Pages Updated!


Matthew-McConaughey-MudI’ve taken a dive into the Oscar Prediction pages, at least in the major categories.  They’re all there for your viewing pleasure.

Significant changes include:

  • 12 Years a Slave moved to the #2 spot in Best Picture with Eijiofor and Nyong’o joining the top five of their category.
  • Before Midnight unfortunately moved out of the top spot in Adapted Screenplay. (for now)
  • Gravity set up to take several categories and be among the most nominated films of the year.
  • Other changes you have to see for yourself.
  • Matthew McConaughey takes the top spot in Best Actor while Leonardo DiCaprio takes a bit of a dive.
  • Lead Actress is my favorite race.  At least fifteen serious ladies fighting for a spot.  Watts still on top but Streep, Dench, Blanchett, Bejo, and others close on her tail.
  • Yes I still believe in The Counselor.

You can go through the Oscar Predictions page or click down below.

PICTUREThe Counselor
DIRECTORRidley Scott
LEAD ACTORMatthew McConaughey
MAKEUPThe Butler


  • Chris

    Still don’t see your reasoning for putting The Counselor and Scott at #1, other than you really want him to win (which is fine). I guess we’ll see when it comes out, but I’m putting my money behind the other movies we know for sure are going to be nominated. The Counselor is iffy on that count, let alone winning.

    Also, it’s interesting that Monuments Men is going to be more of a light-hearted story. Definitely not hard-hitting Oscar bait like we’d been hearing for so long.

  • UBourgeois

    Some notes:
    Your BP lineup makes sense other than Mr. Banks, which I think will almost certainly go the path of Hyde Park or, optimistically, My Week With Marilyn. Bumping up Fruitvale would make more sense, as Oscar seems to like throwing a bone for a new face lately.

    I don’t understand your assurance re: Jackman. I mean, he’s in contention, sure, but I wouldn’t put him in right now. Prisoners isn’t the kind of film that gets acting citations too frequently, and there are plenty of other contenders willing to take his spot. I’m sad that you’ve pushed DiCaprio out but even more sad that you dropped Steve Carell like 10 spots. Also, you have Elba as both your 13 and 16.

    Watts and Streep are the best bets in Actress, we can all agree, but beyond those the only one I can get behind is Blanchett. Philomena is far too quiet for Dench to be a big contender right now, and Thompson, while more likely, is still not that great a bet. I think Winslet is a more probable choice, and my wishful thinking bumps Bejo and Delpy (who you have as both 10 and 12) up a few spots as well.

    You mention in Jonah Hill’s blurb that Bruce Dern has never been nominated for an Oscar, but he has.

    • I think no matter how “Saving Mr. Banks” turns out, it could easily ride into the lineup and in various categories.

  • Steve

    I think The Counselor and August: Osage County are being highly over estimated. I think The Counselor will still get a few nominations, but I still predict August: Osage County to be a huge bust. I think you are underestimating Nebraska and Labor Day. Dern is actually going lead for Nebraska.

    • There’s been no announcement on placement. Thr studio hasn’t even decided.

  • Chris

    People are WAY underestimating Saving Mr. Banks. It’ll be in the top three by the end of the year, mark my words. That trailer way undersold it, as it’s a very dark, dramatic script that is going to make it a huge force to reckon with. Seriously.

  • Kevin

    I actually like your reasoning for dropping Dicaprio. It makes a lot of sense. My only hesitation with dropping him is he’s been snubbed a LOT lately. Since his last nomination for The Departed, he’s been snubbed for Revolutionary Road, Shutter Island, and Django Unchained. Plus J. Edgar, depending on who you ask. I can’t see them snubbing him again for what looks to be one of the best performances of his career.

    I also like moving Bale up. I think he’s going to be a force to reckon with this year for sure.

    • Kevin

      Correction: Since his last nomination for BLOOD DIAMOND. Just shows how much I prefer his performance in The Departed, right?

  • Steve Glansberg

    I have American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis, and 12 Years a Slave as my big three hopefuls. I like the mention of Kirsten Scott Thomas for a non-Only God Forgives role. I never had much faith in the academy supporting that kind of film, but could definitely see it contributing to a nomination for another film. Very clever.

    I think that Jennifer Lawrence could have a chance in supporting actress this year for American Hustle. She seems to be a hit with academy members, and if her part is as wacky as it looks, she could ride the left-over good will from last year to a nomination. I suppose a lot of it depends on how she stacks up against for her co-star, the equally popular Amy Adams.

    • Lawrence’s screen time is said to be small. If they’re going for a woman from the cast, my guess is on Amy Adams.

  • Steve Glansberg


    I agree. Even if it does end up being not so good (overly sentimental, undercooked, or a “by-the-book” biopic), people love Disney. Just look at Kristen’s reaction to the trailer in this past week’s podcast; very enthusiastic largely due to the fact that it’s Disney! I for one hope it’s good (I have Colin Farrell as my #5 wild card for supporting actor), but I think there is a certain segment of the Academy that will support it regardless of its quality.

  • Genadijus

    Clayton, what are your thoughts about “Captain Phillips”? I suppose this movie still has a good shot for Best Director, Editing, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, maybe screenplay and sound category.

    I would like to remind my previous comments, that “The Railway Man” can be a dark horse, especially for acting, cinematography, maybe costumes….
    Regarding the predictions, I’ve moved down Watts to 3rd position (1st Blanchett, and 2nd – Streep), for best actor – stabel position where Leo is the 1st, probably until the “Dallas Buyers Club” premiere and reviews after that. I think that T. Hanks in “Capt. Phillips”, Ch. Bale in “American Hustle” and C. Firth in “The Railway Man” are much more stronger than we think at this moment.

    • I feel personally good about “Captain Phillips” – It could do some serious damage in the awards race if its good enough. The thing is, Greengrass has only been there for “United 93” and they’ve virtually ignored his other films.

      It could factor in techs when everything is said and done. It’s my #10 (when I’m only predicting 9)

  • Ryan

    As I go further into examining the race, I find myself feeling more and more faithful about The Counselor as the film that can push past all of this competition. However, I don’t feel this way because of Ridley Scott’s direction in the slightest, but rather because I think that McCarthy can lend some of his poetic brutality to the screenplay that will no doubt be carried along by this knockout cast. I am sincerely hoping that Fassbender and Diaz can pull off a nomination, if not a win.

    Although, cinematography appears to be the category that will be the most interesting to watch progress through the year. The top five picks on this site have all been heavy snubs in my eyes, but the ones that stand out the most to me are Lubezski (my second choice in 2011 for The Tree of Life), Delbonnel, (I feel should have won for Half-Blood Prince), and Deakins (lost so many times it makes me sick.) It will be beyond exciting to see who will walk away with this for I don’t see a clear frontrunner as of now.

    • Good points especially on McCarthy. Summed up my own thoughts on the prospects of “The Counselor.”

  • Chris,

    I don’t REALLY want Ridley Scott to win, it’s just a narrative I could see forming if the film was above average and a return to form for him.

  • pj

    Wow. Your predictions could not be anymore different then mine. I don’t even have Watts or Counselor as top 5 in their respective categories. I have 12 years a slave at 10. Don’t even have Gravity in BP lineup. It strikes me as another Pacific Rim. A film the internet creams over but GA will reject, especially when there is another ambitious heartwarming 3D film coming out in December. I think AMPAS will reject it for the most part outside of techs also since it is a genre film. I don’t really see any path for McQueen right now to get into Best Director with such a strong lineup he has to overtake. But it’s only July! Lots of changes to come!

    • moviewatcher


      “Don’t even have Gravity in BP lineup. It strikes me as another Pacific Rim”

      Pacific Rim and Gravity have NOTHING in common except there will be a lot of VFX in both. Don’t even try to compare the plots, cast and cinematic techniques that went into both.

      By the way, when you say “another ambitious heartwarming 3D film coming out in December” are you talking about The Hobbit?