2014 Oscar Predictions – Quick Updates to the Major Categories

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With the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild unveiling their nominations over the past two days, the race has taken a shape, many didn’t see happening.  Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyers Club has risen considerably while actors like Barkhad Abdi and Daniel Bruhl have become the hands on favorite to be nominated in their respective categories.  Oprah Winfrey got a huge blow earlier today, missing out on a Golden Globe nomination for her work in the shutout civil rights film, Lee Daniels’ The Butler.  There’s a lot to consider.

Rather than making you wait a long time for me to update the official Oscar Prediction pages (which takes longer than you all think), I thought I’d give a quick update via this space.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

  1. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  2. Gravity (Warner Bros.)
  3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount Pictures)
  4. Nebraska (Paramount Pictures)
  5. Captain Phillips (Sony Pictures)
  6. Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney Pictures)
  7. Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films)
  8. Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features)
  9. American Hustle (Sony Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

  • Her (Warner Bros.)
  • Lee Daniels’ The Butler (The Weinstein Company)
  • Philomena (The Weinstein Company)

Could this be the first year in quite some time that the Weinstein Company doesn’t have a Best Picture nominee in their midst?  It can be argued which film in their arsenal has the legs to make a representation.  Lee Daniels’ The Butler and August: Osage County both managed multiple SAG nominations including Best Cast Ensemble while Philomena was nominated for a Golden Globe today in Best Picture (Drama).  My guess is that they have to sit this year out.

We also have to come to terms that we’re not (or never) getting ten Best Picture nominees ever again and a film or two is going to be left off on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, I’m not entirely convinced that Spike Jonze’s Her, despite its win with the National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics, is going to make the cut in the end.  No SAG nominations shows some weakness, which you can make the argument that an Ensemble nomination would not be appropriate despite strong performances by Joaquin PhoenixAmy Adams, and Scarlett Johansson.

The Golden Globes also put the nail in the coffin on any outside shot of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty or Lone Survivor sneaking into the category.  I thought the latter had a real chance with its emotional pull.  Who knows?  Perhaps they still look that way in the end.