Circuit Breaker Episode 26: DGA, PGA and Top 10 of 2016

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Welcome to the Awards Circuit podcast titled “CIRCUIT BREAKER!,” a weekly podcast from AwardsCircuit.com featuring host Clayton Davis along with panelists Sam Coffey, Mark Johnson and Joey Magidson. We discuss movies, television and all the awards shows that need predicting. New episodes are released every Monday. Find us on Twitter at @Circuit_Pod, email us at podcast@awardscircuit.com, and submit your comments and questions at the bottom of the episode.

On the agenda:

  • Lots of big precursors have been announced like the Producers and Directors Guilds of America. What does it mean for the race to Best Picture and Director?
  • Wide open acting races exist in Best Actress and Supporting Actor. Who has the edge? Are we in for a surprise?
  • Some of the staff will comb through their own Top 10 of 2016 and what films have touched them over the past year.
  • We also have questions, comments and Cinephile Showdowns from the readers.

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  • Joey Magidson

    Enjoy!

    • Paul

      Joey, thank you for discussing with Clayton my comment about Taylor-Johnson’s possible Oscar win. Here’s a look at the Best Actress race; I know it’s long but I’d love it if you checked it out. Thanks again!

      Regarding Best Actress, I’ve made some research and in the last 40 years, only five women won without winning either Globe for Actress (Drama or Musical/Comedy): Katharine Hepburn (On Golden Pond), Geraldine Page, Susan Sarandon, Frances McDormand and Halle Berry. Granted, the last three won SAG and probably that’s what led them to the Oscar stage.
      The thing is AT THE MOMENT I’m thinking Emma Stone will win the Oscar because of that stat unless she loses SAG. Since Natalie Portman lost the Globe, I’m not sure a SAG win would make her a done deal, whereas I think if Emma Stone wins SAG, it’s over, not matter what happens at BAFTA. At least in Best Actress, the Globe and SAG combination is practically unbeatable, as only two women that won both lost the Oscar: Renée Zellweger and Julie Christie, who lost to two women who had won the other Globe and BAFTA (Nicole Kidman and Marion Cotillard). Zellweger’s case is a bit strange, especially since she was in the Best Picture winner, and it can be fairly said that she lost by a small margin, but Christie’s victory at SAG can arguably be considered a lifetime achievement award, as Sam Coffey once pointed out, apart from the fact that eventually the newcomer ingenue won over the already-winning veteran. Regardless, the point I’m trying to make here is alas, they anyway lost to people who had won the Globe, which woudn’t be Portman’s case. Therefore I think sometimes the Globe can be a more deciding factor than SAG (indeed the last time both were given to different people the Globe winner beat the SAG winner: Meryl Streep over Viola Davis). However, imagining the five Best Actress nominees were Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone and Streep, one of the possibilities through the season could be Huppert winning Drama Globe, Stone Musical/Comedy Globe, Portman BAFTA and Adams SAG, with the remaining nominee being a woman that could have won the Musical/Comedy Globe (Streep), and in that case, it could be 2001 Best Actress again, where Sissy Spacek won the Drama Globe, Nicole Kidman the Musical/Comedy Globe, Judi Dench the BAFTA and the SAG winner went on to win the Oscar (Halle Berry), with the remaining nominee also being a woman that could have won the Musical/Comedy Globe (Zellweger). In that scenario, Amy Adams (the SAG winner) could win the Oscar.
      To sum up, right now I think that if Stone wins SAG it’s over, but if Adams or Portman (or in a less likely scenario Streep or Blunt) win there, BAFTA will have the last word unless it all eventually becomes 2001 Best Actress again.

      • Joey Magidson

        We might just discuss this on the next episode, but in short…I basically agree with you.

        • Paul

          That’s great to know.

    • Luke McGowan

      Love your yarn on Everybody Wants Some. I knew I could count on you

      • Joey Magidson

        I aim to please.

  • Joey Magidson

    For anyone curious, this is what my numbers 11 through 30 look like, moving beyond the top ten list we discussed on the episode:

    30. Toni Erdmann

    29. Life, Animated

    28. Paterson

    27. Captain America: Civil War

    26. Arrival

    25. 13th

    24. Sully

    23. 10 Cloverfield Lane

    22. Snowden

    21. The Lobster

    20. Cafe Society

    19. Miss Sloane

    18. Captain Fantastic

    17. Newtown

    16. 20th Century Women

    15. Sausage Party

    14. American Honey

    13. Patriots Day

    12. Weiner

    11. Moonlight

  • Michael R

    I think – and have thought for the past two weeks – that Adams is winning the Oscar. Think about it : voters might find Stone’s role too slight, Portman’s performance too mannered, Huppert’s too controversial, and feel Streep has been rewarded enough. Who’s left? Adams!

  • Michael R

    If Bening is nominated I think Stone is winning the Oscar. Bening and Adams will split the “overdue” vote. It is going to be soon close regardless.

  • Tee

    1. Worse mention for me would probably be Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals- I wasn’t impressed with what Gyllenhaal offered compared to other lead actors.
    2. How about Peter Berg, bringing both intense dramatic craft and genuine, heartfelt respect in both Deepwater Horizon and Patriots Day for the former?
    3. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, Schindler’s List, Unforgiven, and Birdman
    4. Honestly, Supporting Actor is just legitimately shooting a dart at a board in the dark.
    5. I think Mark’s response on the Issey Ogata question was enough of an answer.
    6. Amy Adams winning might just happen, the narrative is there and people want it. If she had the sweeped as much as he did last year, Adams would’ve been this year’s DiCaprio.
    7. I’d say it was a very good, if not great, year.
    8. I think the fact that there was no overlaps and Clayton didn’t pick a musical as his favorite proves just how strange 2016 is.
    9. I genuinely feel bad for anybody that had expectations for Independence Day: Resurgence or BvS
    10. Mine definitely goes to Café Society, in that I know it won’t ever be on my top ten but I also love it a lot.

    My top ten:
    1. Patriots Day
    2. Arrival
    3. 13th
    4. La La Land
    5. Nocturnal Animals
    6. Kubo and the Two Strings
    7. Sing Street
    8. Everybody Wants Some!!
    9. The Nice Guys
    10. The Jungle Book

  • RicosMama

    You really need to do something about Mark and Sam’s audio during these things. You and Joey are clear and loud, but I can hardly hear Mark and Same most of the time. It’s frustrating.

  • Ryan

    Power Hour Question:

    Realistically, what is La La Land’s worst outcome on nomination morning?

    Also, what would you say was the ‘theme’ of 2016 in film? For example, I would say that this was an exceptional year for coming-of-age stories.

  • Ryan

    Cinephile Showdown:

    (Directors who made two films in one year)

    Patriot’s Day OR Deepwater Horizon
    The Accountant OR Jane Got a Gun
    Midnight Special OR Loving
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them OR The Legend of Tarzan
    Neruda OR Jackie