Circuit Breaker Episode 27: Final Oscar Predictions and ACCA 2016 Nominations

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Oscars

Welcome to the Awards Circuit podcast titled “CIRCUIT BREAKER!,” a weekly podcast from AwardsCircuit.com featuring host Clayton Davis along with panelists Sam Coffey, Mark Johnson and Joey Magidson. We discuss movies, television and all the awards shows that need predicting. New episodes are released every Monday. Find us on Twitter at @Circuit_Pod, email us at podcast@awardscircuit.com, and submit your comments and questions at the bottom of the episode.

On the agenda:

  • Oscar nominations are on Tuesday, Jan. 24 and we’re preparing for it all. We’re discussing our final predictions in all of the Oscar categories with lots of questions:
    • How many Best Picture nominees will there be?
    • Is Garth Davis the final nominee in Best Director?
    • Are Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”) and Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”) safe?
    • Are we due for a big snub in Best Actress? Is Isabelle Huppert’s win at the Golden Globes enough for her?
    • Did the “Nocturnal Animals” surge propel Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Supporting Actor?
    • Who has the goods to jump Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”) in Supporting Actress?
    • Is there a “Frozen River” or “Away from Her” in the screenplay categories?
    • How many GKIDS films can sneak into Animated Feature?
  • YOU VOTED! And we have your 2016 Awards Circuit Community Award nominations. See what film leads the fray and what performances received surprising support.
  • We also have over a dozen questions from the readers regarding the nominations and potential surprises.

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  • Joey Magidson

    Enjoy!

  • Tee

    1. “Do you love it?” And the new guy just got fired.
    2. Disappointed Nocturnal Animals or Patriots Day didn’t get in Editing.
    3. No Rogue One or Nocturnal Animals in Cinematography?
    4. Ugh, Finding Dory over Sausage Party or Sing?
    5. La La Land shouldn’t win Best Picture.
    6. Ugh, The Lobster being nominated anywhere? And no Everybody Wants Some!! or Other People?
    7. Ayyye Deadpool Adapted nod
    8. Disappointed by lack of Kristen Stewart, adore Molly Shannon nomination
    9. I hate, hate, hate this entire Supporting Actor lineup. No Michael Shannon? No Idris Elba?
    10. Decent Best Actress, miss Felicity Jones in Rogue One
    11. Really, we’re getting Gyllenhaal and Gosling in over Reynolds or Trevante Rhodes? ACCA, these acting nods disappoint me.
    12. No Ava DuVernay, no Tom Ford, and no Peter Berg? *sigh*
    13. Ugh, Hacksaw Ridge and Zootopia? At least Nocturnal Animals got in!
    14. ACCA has disappointed me with the overwhelming love for La La Land and the complete lack of it in Captain Fantastic or 13th.

  • Manning Franks

    As much as I adore the La La Land love, I’m disappointed with the lack a love for Sing Street and The Nice Guys 🙁

    • Phill Milner

      Sing St snubbed in a few spots 🙁

  • Joey Magidson

    For those curious, these are my full predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    1. La La Land

    2. Moonlight

    3. Manchester by the Sea

    4. Lion

    5. Arrival

    6. Hell or High Water

    7. Hidden Figures

    8. Hacksaw Ridge

    9. Fences

    10. Captain Fantastic

    Next in line: 11. Deadpool 12. Nocturnal Animals 13. Silence 14. Jackie 15. 20th Century Women

    BEST DIRECTOR

    1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land

    2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

    3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

    4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival

    5. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water

    Next in line: 6. Garth Davis – Lion 7. Martin Scorsese – Silence 8. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge 9. Denzel Washington – Fences 10. Pablo Larraín – Jackie

    BEST ACTOR

    1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

    2. Denzel Washington – Fences

    3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

    4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

    5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

    Next in line: 6. Joel Edgerton – Loving 7. Michael Keaton – The Founder 8. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool 9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 10. Sunny Pawar – Lion

    BEST ACTRESS

    1. Emma Stone – La La Land

    2. Natalie Portman – Jackie

    3. Amy Adams – Arrival

    4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

    5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle

    Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 7. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women 8. Ruth Negga – Loving 9. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 10. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

    2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

    3. Dev Patel – Lion

    4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins

    5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

    Next in line: 6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals 7. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water 8. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures 9. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 10. Mykelti Williamson – Fences

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. Viola Davis – Fences

    2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

    3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight

    4. Nicole Kidman – Lion

    5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

    Next in line: 6. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures (or Moonlight) 7. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (or Jackie) 8. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 9. Lily Gladstone – Certain Women 10. Molly Shannon – Other People

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    1. Manchester by the Sea

    2. La La Land

    3. Hell or High Water

    4. The Lobster

    5. Captain Fantastic

    Next in line: 6. Kubo and the Two Strings 7. 20th Century Women 8. Jackie 9. Toni Erdmann 10. Zootopia

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    1. Moonlight

    2. Arrival

    3. Hidden Figures

    4. Lion

    5. Hacksaw Ridge

    Next in line: 6. Fences 7. Deadpool 8. Nocturnal Animals 9. Loving 10. Silence

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    1. Zootopia

    2. Kubo and the Two Strings

    3. Moana

    4. The Red Turtle

    5. My Life as a Zucchini

    Next in line: 6. Miss Hokusai 7. Sing 8. April and the Extraordinary World 9. Finding Dory 10. Sausage Party

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    1. La La Land

    2. Arrival

    3. Hacksaw Ridge

    4. Jackie

    5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    Next in line: 6. Silence 7. Kubo and the Two Strings 8. Rules Don’t Apply 9. Hail, Caesar! 10. Hidden Figures

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1. La La Land

    2. Arrival

    3. Moonlight

    4. Silence

    5. Lion

    Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8. The Handmaiden 9. Live by Night 10. Jackie

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    1. Jackie

    2. La La Land

    3. Florence Foster Jenkins

    4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    5. Captain Fantastic

    Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8. Allied 9. The Dressmaker 10. Kubo and the Two Strings

    BEST FILM EDITING

    1. La La Land

    2. Moonlight

    3. Manchester by the Sea

    4. Arrival

    5. Hell or High Water

    Next in line: 6. Lion 7. Hacksaw Ridge 8. Silence 9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 10. Deadpool

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    1. Deadpool

    2. Star Trek Beyond

    3. A Man Called Ove

    Next in line: 4. Florence Foster Jenkins 5. The Dressmaker 6. Hail, Caesar! 7. Suicide Squad

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    1. La La Land

    2. Hacksaw Ridge

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    4. Arrival

    5. Deepwater Horizon

    Next in line: 6. Deadpool 7. The Jungle Book 8. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 9. Sully 10. Patriots Day

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    1. Hacksaw Ridge

    2. La La Land

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    4. Arrival

    5. Deadpool

    Next in line: 6. Sully 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Patriots Day 9. A Monster Calls 10. Jason Bourne

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    1. The Jungle Book

    2. Arrival

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    4. Doctor Strange

    5. Kubo and the Two Strings

    Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. Deepwater Horizon 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. The BFG 10. Passengers

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    1. La La Land

    2. Moonlight

    3. Lion

    4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    5. The BFG

    Next in line: 6. Hell or High Water 7. Jackie 8. Patriots Day 9. Nocturnal Animals 10. Florence Foster Jenkins

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    1. La La Land – “City of Stars”

    2. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”

    3. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”

    4. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It”

    5. Hidden Figures – “Runnin”

    Next in line: 6. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling” 7. Moana – “We Know the Way” 8. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Sing Street – “Go Now”

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    1. O.J.: Made in America

    2. 13th

    3. Gleason

    4. Life, Animated

    5. Cameraperson

    Next in line: 6. I Am Not Your Negro 7. Weiner 8. Tower 9. Fire at Sea 10. The Witness

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

    1. Toni Erdmann

    2. Land of Mine

    3. The Salesman

    4. My Life as a Zucchini

    5. A Man Called Ove

    Next in line: 6. Paradise 7. It’s Only the End of the World 8. Tanna 9. The King’s Choice

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    1. Inner Workings

    2. Pearl

    3. Piper

    4. Borrowed Time

    5. Once Upon a Line

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    1. Joe’s Violin

    2. The White Helmets

    3. Frame 394

    4. The Other Side of Home

    5. The Mute’s House

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    1. Silent Nights

    2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy

    3. Bon Voyage

    4. Nocturne in Black

    5. Timecode

  • MovieManiac14

    VERY disappointed with whoever said Midnight Special was on their “worst” list. It’s my number 1 of 2016 and it should on everyone’s list of movies to watch.

    • Phill Milner

      I watched it because Nichols is fantastic and arguably the most underrated filmmaker working today, but I was a little disappointed after watching it. Definitely wasn’t bad in any way, so I agree that it shouldn’t be on any kind of “worst” list, but i was a little let down considering how fantastic Nichols’ other movies have been.

      • MovieManiac14

        Really? I personally think it’s his best film by a longshot. I really love Take Shelter and Mud, Loving and Shotgun Stories were pretty good too, but Midnight Special has much more fulfilling characters. Plus we don’t really get that much good Sci-Fi now-a-days (except for Arrival). Midnight Special is an exceptional film that I hope will be considered a classic in years to come.

  • Phill Milner

    Holy Jackie, Batman. I can only assume that certain people voted on 20 different devices to make some of that happen. Pleased with the Manchester love. Disappointed with the Moonlight love. Don’t care much for the La La Land love, but its nominations doesn’t surprise me. It does appeal to a lot of the tech categories, so a record being broken after being nominated for 3 different songs (no “Up” from Sing Street is a crime) doesn’t really surprise me. Another Day of Sun is the only really good song from the movie.

    Nocturnal Animals seems like a fan favorite, so that doesn’t surprise me much either. Dying to see it. Shamed of myself for missing it in favor of Moonlight and Arrival.

    My main takeaway is the lack of 10 Cloverfield Lane in any category. Fantastic movie, Fantastic performances, Fantastic techs. No Oscar buzz so no ACCA buzz. Boo.

  • Baggins

    i guess my votes were a minority. no love for Edge of 17 or the Accountant

    • Robby Poffenberger

      Hailee Steinfeld > Renee Zellweger in Bridget Jones, Diane Keaton in Something’s Gotta Give, and a whole host of leading women in comedies who were nominated for Oscars. I wasn’t huge on the whole movie, but Hailee would have been in my Actress five.

  • Luke McGowan

    Question: Does anyone feel like the rest of the season has just lost all its fun? With the nominations over, all the fun of Original Song is pretty much over, Adams’ snub takes out a lot of the fun of Best Actress, and I can count on one hand the number of categories actually duking it out for a win. Where’s the fun now?

    • Lakeshow

      best actor now :^)

  • Robby Poffenberger

    CENEPHILE SHOWDOWN: Taylor Sheridan-scripted flicks
    Sicario or Hell or High Water?

    • Robby Poffenberger

      MO: Sicario is probably the greater film, but I’ll return to HOHW more because I love the characters so much

  • Ryan

    Cinephile Showdown:

    The Elephant Man OR Midnight Express
    1984 OR V for Vendetta
    Jackie OR Melancholia
    Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone OR Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
    The Proposition OR Snowpiercer

  • Ryan

    Power Hour Question:

    Now that La La Land has won PGA, has a record-breaking 7 Golden Globe Wins, hit the max amount of Oscar nods with 14, was virtually never going to compete at SAG, and will likely win DGA, I ask: Is this the most out in front an Oscar contender has ever been at this point in the race?