BAFTA: Predictions for the Key Awards from Across the Pond

BAFTA Awards get their chance to weigh in on the awards season this weekend where they get to influence the Oscar race one day before the Academy receives their final ballots.  “La La Land” leads the charge with 11 nominations including Best Picture and this will be a real test to see if it has the ability to “clean up” so to speak.

Check out all the predictions down below:

EE RISING STAR AWARD

Laia Costa
Lucas Hedges
Tom Holland
Ruth Negga
Anya Taylor-Joy

Two Oscar nominees are among the lineup, Lucas Hedges and Ruth Negga.  Two stars of genre films made quite an impression in the year while the star of the underseen “Victoria,” Laia Costa is just happy to be there.  They tend to stick with their own as proven by past winners like Jack O’Connell, Will Poulter, and Tom Hardy.  In the end, the edge has to be given to “Loving” star Ruth Negga.  A nice boost for what is sure to be an outstanding career.

PREDICTION: Ruth Negga

BEST ANIMATED FILM

“Finding Dory” – Andrew Stanton
“Kubo and the Two Strings” – Travis Knight
“Moana” – Ron Clements and John Musker
“Zootopia” – Byron Howard and Rich Moore

Did you know that since the inception of this category in 2006, BAFTA has named the Oscar winner every time with the exception of “The LEGO Movie,” which was inexplicably snubbed at the Academy Awards?  Since “Zootopia” has won just about everything up until now, is there any reason to believe that it won’t continue?  The passion and campaigning for “Kubo and the Two Strings” has been palpable and if it’s going to make its sudden shift towards the gold, this is the moment to do it.  In the end, or until proven otherwise, the billion dollar blockbuster should do it.

PREDICTION: “Zootopia”

european film awardsBEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

“Dheepan” – Jacques Audiard and Pascal Caucheteux
“Julieta” – Pedro Almodóvar
“Mustang” – Deniz Gamze Ergüven and Charles Gillibert
“Son of Saul” – László Nemes and Gábor Sipos
“Toni Erdmann” – Maren Ade and Janine Jackowski

One of the worst things about BAFTA is how the timeline does not correlate with our conventional Oscar calendar.  The group does love Pedro Almodóvar who they have given this award a record three times (“All About My Mother,” “Talk to Her,” and “The Skin I Live In”).  This may come down last year’s Oscar-winner “Son of Saul” and the presumed Oscar frontrunner for this year “Toni Erdmann.”  In the end, the light-hearted nature of Maren Ade’s German film could push past the harrowing tale of the Holocaust.

PREDICTION: “Toni Erdmann”

La La LandBEST EDITING

“Arrival” – Joe Walker
“Hacksaw Ridge” – John Gilbert
“La La Land” – Tom Cross
“Manchester by the Sea” – Jennifer Lame
“Nocturnal Animals” – Joan Sobel

This is one of the first big tests for “La La Land” which won the ACE Eddie alongside “Arrival.”  If anyone remembers, this is where the tide turned towards “Whiplash” winning its editing Oscar.  Pending no such surprise, this should be an easy get but don’t be closed off to “Arrival” showing some strength.  You have to go back to 2006 to find a BAFTA Editing winner that didn’t go on to win the Oscar (when they didn’t reward a non-Oscar-nominee in its place).

PREDICTION: “La La Land”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

“Doctor Strange” – Jeremy Woodhead
“Florence Foster Jenkins” – J. Roy Helland and Daniel Phillips
“Hacksaw Ridge” – Shane Thomas
“Nocturnal Animals” – Donald Mowat and Yolanda Toussieng
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” –Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin, Neal Scanlan

Not an Oscar nominee in the bunch but before the bakeoff for the Academy Awards were anounced, “Hacksaw Ridge” and “Florence Foster Jenkins” were presumed to be in the hunt.  The group tends to love fantasy and period pieces so this could tip in “Rogue One’s” favor but I presume “Nocturnal Animals,” which had 9 nods in total could snag something for itself.  In the end, the singing woman could prevail.

PREDICTION: “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemBEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Allied” – Joanna Johnston
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – Colleen Atwood
“Florence Foster Jenkins” – Consolata Boyle
“Jackie” – Madeline Fontaine
“La La Land” – Mary Zophres

The Oscar five is present and this is another place that we’ve deemed “vulnerable” for “La La Land” to capture love but this could all but seal the deal.  When doubters were vocal about “Mad Max: Fury Road” in this spot, BAFTA answered with a resounding yes.  The conventional and eye-striking dresses of “Jackie” are going to be hard to ignore.  Tipping the scale towards Madeline Fontaine’s work.

PREDICTION: “Jackie”

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

“Arrival” – Louis Morin
“Doctor Strange” – Richard Bluff, Stephane Ceretti, Paul Corbould, and Jonathan Fawkner
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – Tim Burke, Pablo Grillo, Christian Manz, and David Watkins
“The Jungle Book” – Robert Legato, Dan Lemmon, Andrew R. Jones, and Adam Valdez
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – Neil Corbould, Hal Hickel, Mohen Leo, John Knoll, and Nigel Sumner

The big test between roaring animals of “The Jungle Book” and the raising of the dead characters in “Rogue One.”  How do voters feel about the latter, though done brilliantly?  Should be noted that BAFTA gave this award to “The Force Awakens” last year, as well as “Return of the Jedi” back in 1983.  Should also be noted that the “Harry Potter” franchise has a win in this category.  How do they feel about the spin off?  Tip the hats towards the work of talking animals.

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PREDICTION: “The Jungle Book”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Doctor Strange” – Charles Wood and John Bush
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock
“Hail, Caesar!” – Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh
“La La Land” – David and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
“Nocturnal Animals” – Shane Valentino and Meg Everist

Four out of the last five BAFTA winners in Production Design went on to win the Oscar.  “La La Land” has showed considerable strength in this category all season and it’s hard to see it being overtaken by any of the other nominees here but could they fall for old Hollywood in “Hail, Caesar!” or the wizardly world of old New York in “Fantastic Beasts?”  Let’s stay with the frontrunner until proven otherwise.

PREDICTION: “La La Land”

BEST SOUND

“Arrival” – Sylvain Bellemare, Claude La Haye, and Bernard Gariépy Strobl
“Deepwater Horizon” – Dror Mohar, Mike Prestwood Smith, Wylie Stateman, and David Wyman
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – Niv Adiri, Glenn Freemantle, Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, and Ian Tapp
“Hacksaw Ridge” – Peter Grace, Robert Mackenzie, Kevin O’Connell, and Andy Wright
“La La Land” – Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Ai-Ling Lee, Steven Morrow, and Andy Nelson

Musical or always the film about music in this space.  “Moulin Rouge!,” “Chicago,” “Ray,” “Walk the Line,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “Les Miserables,” and “Whiplash” all found love here, even when Oscar passed.  Sure you can find outliers like “Inside Llewyn Davis” being left off but that’s when a technical juggernaut is running all the categories.  In “La La Land,” you have both.  Technical juggernaut plus musical.  It can’t lose.

PREDICTION: “La La Land”

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC

“Arrival” – Jóhann Jóhannsson
“Jackie” – Mica Levi
“La La Land” – Justin Hurwitz
“Lion” – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
“Nocturnal Animals” – Abel Korzeniowski

We can try to entertain the thought of perhaps Jóhann Jóhannsson overtaking the category after his Oscar DQ but this has been made for Justin Hurwitz for quite some time.

PREDICTION: “La La Land”

BEST DOCUMENTARY

“13th” – Ava DuVernay
“The Beatles: Eight Days a Week” – Ron Howard
“The Eagle Huntress” – Otto Bell and Stacey Reiss
“Notes on Blindness” – Peter Middleton and James Spinney
“Weiner” – Josh Kriegman and Elyse Steinberg

Though “13th” should be a default choice, we’re suspecting the motherland of The Beatles may been particularly touched by Ron Howard’s popular documentary.  “The Eagle Huntress” also strikes a particular chord with viewers.  Going with the famed music group’s doc.

PREDICTION: “The Beatles: Eight Days a Week”

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

“American Honey” – Andrea Arnold, Lars Knudsen, Pouya Shahbazian and Jay Van Hoy
“Denial” – Gary Foster, Russ Krasnoff and David Hare
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – David Yates, David Heyman, Steve Kloves, J. K. Rowling, and Lionel Wigram
“I, Daniel Blake” – Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien and Paul Laverty
“Notes on Blindness” – Peter Middleton, James Spinney, Mike Brett, Jo-Jo Ellison and Steve Jamison
“Under the Shadow” – Babak Anvari, Emily Leo, Oliver Roskill and Lucan Toh

With a Best Film nomination, this should be pretty easy for “I, Daniel Blake” to nab up.

PREDICTION: “I, Daniel Blake”

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

Mike Carey and Camille Gatin (Producer) – “The Girl with All the Gifts”
George Amponsah (Writer/Director/Producer) and Dionne Walker (Writer/Producer) – “The Hard Stop”
Peter Middleton (Writer/Director/Producer), James Spinney (Writer/Director) and Jo-Jo Ellison (Producer) – “Notes on Blindness”
John Donnelly (Writer) and Ben A. Williams (Director) – “The Pass”
Babak Anvari (Writer/Director), Emily Leo, Oliver Roskill and Lucan Toh (Producers) – “Under the Shadow”

COPY CODE SNIPPET

Throw a dart and pick a winner but going with the documentary “Notes on Blindness” to edge out “Under the Shadow.”

PREDICTION: “Notes on Blindness”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Bradford Young – “Arrival”
Giles Nuttgens – “Hell or High Water”
Linus Sandgren – “La La Land”
Greig Fraser – “Lion”
Seamus McGarvey – “Nocturnal Animals”

Could the bleeding started by the ASC for “La La Land” continue with BAFTA?  Is it “Lion” that will overtake it or could silky style of “Nocturnal Animals” hold some water?  Sci-fi is always a safe bet too as proven by them rewarding “Inception.”  Let’s shake things up and say “Lion” pulls in another “W.”

PREDICTION: “Lion”

Nicole KidmanBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Luke Davies – “Lion”
Tom Ford – “Nocturnal Animals”
Eric Heisserer – “Arrival”
Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder – “Hidden Figures”
Robert Schenkkan and Andrew Knight – “Hacksaw Ridge”

With “Moonlight” out of the way here, let’s see what has some strength going in final Oscar voting. “Lion” and “Arrival” seem to be the two that could benefit the most and suspicion says one of them will win. Fun fact, do you know that last year’s winner “The Big Short” was the first time they awarded the eventual Oscar winner since 2010’s “The Social Network?” Because “Arrival” is the only film nominated for Best Picture in the group, I think we’ll see it slightly edge out “Lion” in the end. Not confident in the slightest.

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PREDICTION: “Arrival”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
Paul Laverty – “I, Daniel Blake”
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea”
Taylor Sheridan – “Hell or High Water”

Another test for “La La Land” and seeing if it muster the strength to fight off Kenneth Lonergan in this category. BAFTA has been giving out this award since 1983 and has never rewarded a musical. There could be a first time for everything but I’m going to stick with the dramatic rapture of “Manchester by the Sea” to hold on. Consider all screenplay races wide open if “Moonlight” squeaks out a win.

PREDICTION: “Manchester by the Sea”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – “Fences” as Rose Maxson
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight” as Paula
Nicole Kidman – “Lion” as Sue Brierley
Hayley Squires – “I, Daniel Blake” as Katie Morgan
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea” as Randi

In 2014, BAFTA matched 4 for 4 with their acting winners translating to Oscar winners. It was the first time they did it since 2011. Before that, they did it in 2006. Will they do it again? Viola Davis has won everything for “Fences” and it’s hard to see anyone else overtaking her but at BAFTA, anything is possible. If there’s an upset, perhaps it’s the boisterous work of Naomie Harris that changes their mind.

PREDICTION: Viola Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight” as Juan
Jeff Bridges – “Hell or High Water” as Marcus Hamilton
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins” as St. Clair Bayfield
Dev Patel – “Lion” as Saroo Brierley
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – “Nocturnal Animals” as Ray Marcus

This is where I see BAFTA going somewhere different. Mahershala Ali doesn’t seem like someone they would embrace. Not with Hugh Grant and Dev Patel there for the taking. Going down the road of past winners like Barkhad Abdi and Jake Gyllenhaal, I think Dev Patel will get his moment on stage (but still go on to lose the Academy Award).

PREDICTION: Dev Patel

Natalie PortmanBEST LEAD ACTRESS

Amy Adams – “Arrival” as Dr. Louise Banks
Emily Blunt – “The Girl on the Train” as Rachel Watson
Natalie Portman – “Jackie” as Jackie Kennedy
Emma Stone – “La La Land” as Mia Dolan
Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkins” as Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone winning at BAFTA will all but cement her Oscar statue but Natalie Portman continues to pose a threat. At BAFTA, I can’t help but think she may resonate stronger with the group overseas. It would also be interesting to see Amy Adams possibly squeak in a win here with no Oscar nod to catapult upon. Sticking with the biopic performer.

PREDICTION: Natalie Portman

BEST LEAD ACTOR

Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea” as Lee Chandler
Andrew Garfield – “Hacksaw Ridge” as Desmond T. Doss
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land” as Sebastian Wilder
Jake Gyllenhaal – “Nocturnal Animals” as Edward Sheffield/Tony Hastings
Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic” as Ben Cash

We still can’t figure out why BAFTA hates Denzel Washington but he remains absent. Defaults back to Casey Affleck but I would keep a close eye on Ryan Gosling possibly squeezing in a BAFTA win to represent his film much like Emma Stone did at the SAG Awards. Won’t that just shake things up?

PREDICTION: Casey Affleck

DAVID LEAN AWARD FOR DIRECTION

Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
Tom Ford – “Nocturnal Animals”
Ken Loach – “I, Daniel Blake”
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea”
Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”

Chazelle, Chazelle, and more Chazelle. Unless they’re going to reward Villeneuve…nah, still Chazelle.

PREDICTION: Damien Chazelle

La La LandBEST FILM

“Arrival” – Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, David Linde, and Aaron Ryder
“I, Daniel Blake” – Rebecca O’Brien
“La La Land” – Fred Berger, Jordan Horowitz, and Marc Platt
“Manchester by the Sea” – Lauren Beck, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Kimberly Steward, and Kevin J. Walsh
“Moonlight” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Adele Romanski

Made. For. “La La Land.” Enough said.

PREDICTION: “La La Land”

Share your BAFTA predictions in the comments below!

CLICK THROUGH THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

PICTURE |DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR |SUPPORTING ACTRESS |ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY |ADAPTED SCREENPLAY |ANIMATED FEATURE |PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT

About Clayton Davis

Clayton Davis is the esteemed Editor and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com. Born in Bronx, NY to a Puerto Rican mother and Black father, he’s been criticizing film and television for over a decade. Clayton is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to the awards season, the Critics Choice Awards. He’s also an active member of New York Film Critics Online, International Press Academy, Black Reel Awards, and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association. Clayton has been quoted and appeared in various outlets that include The New York Times, CNN.com, Variety, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, Bloomberg Television, AOL, Huffington Post, Bloomberg Radio, The Wrap, Slash Film, and the Hollywood Reporter.
  • Joey Magidson

    Here’s my shot in the dark:

    RISING STAR AWARD

    PREDICTION: Ruth Negga

    ALTERNATE: Lucas Hedges

    BEST ANIMATED FILM

    PREDICTION: “Zootopia”

    ALTERNATE: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

    BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

    PREDICTION: “Toni Erdmann”

    ALTERNATE: “Son of Saul”

    BEST EDITING

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Arrival”

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

    PREDICTION: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

    ALTERNATE: “Hacksaw Ridge”

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    PREDICTION: “Jackie”

    ALTERNATE: “La La Land”

    BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

    PREDICTION: “The Jungle Book”

    ALTERNATE: “Arrival”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Hail, Caesar!”

    BEST SOUND

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Arrival”

    BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Jackie”

    BEST DOCUMENTARY

    PREDICTION: “13th”

    ALTERNATE: “Weiner”

    OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

    PREDICTION: “I, Daniel Blake”

    ALTERNATE: “American Honey”

    OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

    PREDICTION: “Under the Shadow”

    ALTERNATE: “The Girl with All the Gifts”

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Lion”

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    PREDICTION: “Arrival”

    ALTERNATE: “Nocturnal Animals”

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Manchester by the Sea”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    PREDICTION: Viola Davis

    ALTERNATE: Hayley Squires

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali

    ALTERNATE: Jeff Bridges

    BEST LEAD ACTRESS

    PREDICTION: Emma Stone

    ALTERNATE: Natalie Portman

    BEST LEAD ACTOR

    PREDICTION: Casey Affleck

    ALTERNATE: Ryan Gosling

    DAVID LEAN AWARD FOR DIRECTION

    PREDICTION: Damien Chazelle

    ALTERNATE: Ken Loach

    BEST FILM

    PREDICTION: “La La Land”

    ALTERNATE: “Moonlight”

  • michaeldal65

    As much as I disliked Hail, Caesar!, it should nail the Production Design. Stunning looking film.

  • Luke McGowan

    Jeff Bridges doesn’t have a BAFTA. Could that be a factor for him?

  • John

    I’m surprised you are predicting Ruth Negga for rising star. It’s voted on popular vote I’d be surprised if Tom Holland doesn’t take the win, especially since he’d also be more considered “one of their own” since he’s English and Negga’s Irish.