As the time comes for the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences to announce their own favorite films and performances from 2017, I’ve sat down and taken the final stab at the Oscar Predictions for the year.
I’m an advocate for the theme that your predictions need to tell a story. Is history being made by your nominations? Are there surprises in the mix and who will be the miss that no one sees coming.
As you can see them collectively on the sidebar, here are some high-level notes:
- With all the guild notices for “The Big Sick,” we’ve struggled to see the film capture enough love to be able to nab the 5% needed for a Best Picture nomination. If it was a “straight ten,” and voters will filling out ballots for ten films, I’d feel much more ready to include it. For now, we’re settling on Holly Hunter and predicting a sad miss for its writers Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon.
- After analyzing and anticipating the Academy to be somewhat cold on “Call Me by Your Name,” BAFTA nudged me in the direction to include its director Luca Guadagnino over DGA nominee Jordan Peele. For obvious reasons that DGA matching 5 for 5 with Oscar is a rarity, Peele seemed the flimsiest and either Guadagnino or even Sean Baker could make surprise entries.
- Looking at Lead Actor for weeks, I’ve always been reluctant to believe that all three of Daniel Kaluuya, James Franco, and Timothee Chalamet would make the cut despite them being the “safe” choices in the category. Not predicting it because of recent allegations because it broke very late in the voting process, I’m foreseeing James Franco to miss out in place for Golden Globe and SAG nominee Denzel Washington for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
- “Doubt Meryl at your own peril™”
- Hong Chau = Maria Bello/Daniel Bruhl 2.0
- “I, Tonya” = “Dallas Buyers Club”
- Going with an “out of the box” choice of “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” for that supposed open fifth spot.
- Only one GKIDS film will make the cut and we’ll see a lot of studio pictures in the lineup.
- I wanted to predict “Wonder Woman” in Film Editing but settled on the Sound categories. It could even make Costumes.
- Original Song is open and we are anticipating a miss for “The Greatest Showman” which won the Globe.
- For maybe the first time in history, I’m predicting a shutout for John Williams. What world do we live in?
- “Lady Bird” could win Best Picture and Best Picture only. On the record!
Cast Ensemble – “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Lead Actor – Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Lead Actress – Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Supporting Actress – Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Stunt Ensemble – “Wonder Woman”
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:
| MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
| LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
| PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
| ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |
| ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |