In today’s Box Office Preview, we look at a crowded weekend. Though three new releases will be vying for a spot in the top ten this weekend, “Aquaman” looks likely to become the rare movie that holds the box office crown for four weeks. Those three new releases are STX’s “The Upside” in over 3,000 theaters, Sony’s family-friendly “A Dog’s Way Home,” and Entertainment Studios’ “Replicas,” starring Keanu Reaves. This weekend will also feature the expansion of “On The Basis of Sex” and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which both open nationwide after more limited runs the past few weeks.
“Aquaman“‘s domestic total sits at $268.6M going into the weekend. The film’s box office has been holding relatively firm in the face of holiday competition. It is expected to drop around 41% in this frame. Interestingly, relative to its peers in the DC Extended Universe, the film’s domestic box office performance tracks at fourth (after “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” “Wonder Woman” and “Suicide Squad“). But its international box office receipts put it in a class by itself as it looks to become the first movie in the DCEU to break the $1B mark in the coming weeks.
The second place finisher is likely to be “A Dog’s Way Home,” which is opening in 3,090 theaters. The film looks like it is pacing behind “A Dog’s Purpose,” a 2017 adaptation of a book by the same author. IMDB page views suggest “A Dog’s Way Home” is in line for a lighter opening in the $12-14M range. But family-friendly is always welcomed, so don’t be surprised if it does a bit better.
Third and fourth place will likely be a photo finish. A newcomer and two films that have been open for multiple weeks will vie for the spots. “The Upside,” a remake of a 2012 film called “The Intouchables,” features Kevin Hart and Bryan Cranston. Look for the film to bow in around $10-12M, with holdovers “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and “Mary Poppins Returns” hot on its heels.
Just behind them is “Bumblebee” continuing its run in 3,300 theaters and “Escape Room” looking to build on its surprisingly impressive open from last weekend. Each seems to be headed for a weekend in the $8-9M range.
Rounding Out The Top 10
Rounding out the top 10, a group of films looks to come in at or near $7M. “Replicas,” starring Keanu Reaves and Alice Eve debuts in 2,327 theaters. It looks to open just ahead of Clint Eastwood’s holdover “The Mule.”
“On the Basis of Sex” gets its first weekend in wide release. It will likely outperform “If Beale Street Could Talk” in the same situation this weekend. Both films look to benefit from being generally in the Oscar discussion, but neither will see the splash associated with being a real contender.
Check out the weekend Box Office Preview below. But box office is always unpredictable. Be sure to look out for updated numbers as they come in over the weekend.
- Aquaman (3,863 theaters) – $18.3 M
- A Dog’s Way Home (3,090 theaters) – $13.0 M
- The Upside (3,080 theaters) – $11.0 M
- Mary Poppins Returns (3,253 theaters) – $9.3 M
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (3,029 theaters) – $9.2 M
- Bumblebee (3,303 theaters) – $8.7 M
- Escape Room (2,717 theaters) – $8.0 M
- Replicas (2,327 theaters) – $7.0 M
- The Mule (3,329 theaters) – $6.8 M
- On the Basis of Sex (1,923 theaters) – $5.0 M