Queer Girl Friday: LGBTQIA+ Oscar Nom Predictions- Where We Are After The Golden Globes

I’m Selina, Awards Circuit’s queer Girl Friday for everything LGBTQIA+ on film and TV. We’re just under two weeks out from the official Oscar nominations, and things are looking a little different in the aftermath of last Sunday’s Golden Globes (see the winner’s list here). Will “A Star Is Born” be snubbed at the Oscars? Could “The Favourite” win Best Picture, and find a Best Lead Actress in star Olivia Colman? And what are “Bohemian Rhapsody’s” prospects, after winning the Globe for Best Picture (Drama)? Here are my predictions on which LGBTQIA+ films will be seeing Oscar gold in their not-so-distant future.

Sidenote: Special shoutout to Sandra Oh, who became the first Asian American actor to win two Golden Globes, earning her second last Sunday for “Killing Eve,” a queer spy thriller that’s been earning praise since its premiere. We see you, Sandra.

“The Favourite”: Full Steam Ahead for Olivia Colman

Period lesbian drama “The Favourite” continued its winning streak at the Golden Globes, with Colman snagging an accolade for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. The win all but clinches a lead actress Oscar nomination for Colman, who also received one of the film’s 12 BAFTA nominations this week. The Gay & Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association also crowned Colman as their Actress of the Year, alongside wins for Best Film and Best Screenplay. At this point, the Oscar could be Colman’s to lose. As for supporting stars Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, their loss to Regina King set them back a bit in the Oscars race, but they’ll both probably still earn nominations.

Colman also presented “The Favourite’s” video package for its Best Picture (Comedy or Musical) nomination alongside Weisz and Stone, though the trophy ended up going to “Green Book.” (A shocking win, as many were expecting either “Crazy Rich Asians” or “Mary Poppins Returns” to get the honor.) This could bode ill for “The Favourite’s” Best Picture hopes, as “Green Book’s” surprise win shuffles around previous expectations for the Best Picture Oscar race. “The Favourite” will likely be nominated in the category (it’s won too many awards for a snub), but its hopes for the biggest award of all are up in the air.

“Bohemian Rhapsody”: Expected and Unexpected Wins

In the most predictable win of the ceremony, Rami Malek earned the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama for his role in “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Malek, who delivered a meticulous performance as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury, has been praised by fans and critics alike for his performance, carrying the entire weight of the drama on his own shoulders. An Oscar nomination for his role is pretty much guaranteed but has some stiff competition from other lead actors like Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) and John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”). This Oscars race has several frontrunners, and the winning margin could end up being razor-thin.

In another minor upset of the night, “Bohemian Rhapsody” earned the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), beating out megahits “Black Panther” and “A Star Is Born,” and critical darlings “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “BlacKkKlansman.” Look, “Bohemian Rhapsody” was a fine biopic, but I don’t believe it’s the best in that group. Not against those four films. It was an upset because, frankly, I would’ve never guessed it could beat the other films in its category. Still, this does put “Bohemian Rhapsody” a little further ahead in the Best Picture Oscar race than its peers and could push it over the finish line. Do you think “Bohemian Rhapsody” could win a Best Picture Oscar?

“A Star Is Born” Snubbed, Only Picks Up “Shallow” Win

How in the hell did “A Star Is Born” only earn one Golden Globe??? I will never understand how “Bohemian Rhapsody” beat “A Star Is Born,” the movie that made everyone cry, for Best Drama Film. I do, however, understand Glenn Close beating out Lady Gaga for Best Actress (Drama), because it’s Glenn Close. (Though I’ll admit, I was also surprised Gaga didn’t bag the award). At the very least, “Shallow” earned the Golden Globe for Best Original Song, a win as predictable as Malek’s.

“A Star Is Born’s” underperformance at the Golden Globes could put a damper on their Oscar hopes, as until now, it seemed like it couldn’t miss. Still, Golden Globe winners don’t always go on to earn Oscars, and this could one of those situations. After all, Lady Gaga, Cooper and Sam Elliott all earned acting awards from the National Board of Review just days after the Golden Globes ceremony, and the film has been wildly popular with critics and fans. I still think “A Star Is Born” has good Oscars prospects even after a lackluster Golden Globes showing, but it’s a little shakier now than it previously was.

“Green Book” Wins, Despite Its Very Public Controversies

“Green Book” earned the most awards of the night, taking home wins for Best Picture (Musical or Comedy), Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali, and Best Screenplay. I’m a little shocked by the screenplay and best picture wins, due to the intense competition in both categories along with the controversy surrounding the film. Writers Nick Vallelonga and Brian Currie and writer/director Peter Farrelly have come under fire for making the film in the first place, as Don Shirley himself never wanted a movie made about his life (not to mention their own personal controversies, Viggo Mortensen’s use of the N-word at an awards season Q & A, and the film’s problematic “white savior” perspective). Still, “Green Book” went on to earn the National Board of Review’s Best Picture award just a couple days later and has earned a bevy of awards up to the Golden Globes. “Green Book’s” Best Picture (Comedy or Musical) win puts it higher up in the running for the Best Picture Oscar, and it seems like its controversies won’t be slowing down its momentum.

“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and “Boy Erased” Miss The Mark

Lee Israel biopic “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and Garrard Conley biopic “Boy Erased” went home empty-handed, with actors Melissa McCarthy, Richard E. Grant and Lucas Hedges losing in their respective acting categories.

The lack of wins puts both films on the wrong foot going into the Oscars, with all three actors likely to earn nominations but no golden statues. McCarthy’s well-received dramatic performance makes her an easy nominee, but she’ll be up against stiff competition from Golden Globe winner Glenn Close and Lady Gaga: too stiff for a likely win. Hedges could be nominated, but there’s no way he comes in first with Washington, Cooper, and Malek on the scene: he’s too young and against too many stronger performers. Grant is also up against stiff competition like Sam Rockwell, Ali and Adam Driver; I don’t see him making it to the top of that pile. All three losses put them too far behind for a realistic Oscar win at this point, despite how well both films have been received.

The official Oscar nominations will be revealed live Jan. 22 on the Oscars website. The Oscars ceremony will be on Feb. 24 at 5 p.m. PST/8 p.m. EST on ABC.

What are your Oscar predictions? Let me know in the comments below, and check out our Oscar predictions at Awards Circuit’s Circuit Hub.