Final Oscar Predictions: ‘A Star is Born’ Set to Lead, ‘Roma’ Poised to Make History

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We’re down to the nitty-gritty of awards season.  Oscar ballots have been turned in and its time to make our final guesses on what will (and will not) be nominated at the Academy Awards nominations announcement on Tuesday, January 22 by Oscar-nominee Kumail Nanjiani (“The Big Sick”) and Emmy nominee Tracee Ellis-Ross.

We will be celebrating our second favorite day of the year with a LIVE video streaming beginning at 8:05 am Eastern Time here on AwardsCircuit.com.  We will be streaming the nominations announcement while giving our instant commentary and reactions.

So what will tomorrow hold?

A big day for Bradley Cooper’s “A Star is Born” is sure to be had, in fact, we foresee it leading the nominations with 10, including Picture, Director, Lead Actor for Cooper, and Lead Actress for Lady Gaga.  It was a near close call in Supporting Actor as Sam Elliott is now sitting in the #5 spot after missing both Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations.  As spoken on our Circuit Breaker podcast episode, he now exactly emulates past Supporting Actor winner James Coburn when he won in 1998 for “Affliction.”  He could miss in the end for the likes of recently crowned winner Sam Rockwell for his performance as George W. Bush in Adam McKay’s “Vice.”

Speaking of people who missed key precursors, Regina King is walking in with a slew of critics’ awards (about 29 trophies to be exact) for her work in Barry Jenkins’ “If Beale Street Could Talk.”  The supporting actress race has been an evolving machine as the only assured nominees are from the same movie (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz from “The Favourite”).  Toying for weeks with another Amy Adams eleventh hour snub for her work in McKay’s political satiric film, I’ve opted to see her garner her sixth Academy Award nomination alongside Margot Robbie’s surprise SAG nominated turn in “Mary Queen of Scots.”  Honestly speaking, there have been 9 ladies on the table for the latter part of the season and any of them can take a spot from another.

Bryan Singer’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” has shown considerable strength and could walk away with the upwards of 7 or 8 nominations.  After winning the Golden Globe prize for Best Picture (Drama), the film may position Rami Malek well for a Best Actor death match that includes Bale and Cooper.

Green Book” is the film that has coasted well since September’s Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.  With prizes at the Golden Globes and now, the very reliable Producers Guild of America, how far can the film actually go?  The strength of the film will need to be shown below-the-line in the technical categories.  If the Best Picture win for the film is in the cards, it will need some type of nomination from the crafts in categories such as editing, production design, or sound mixing.  Not since “Grand Hotel” in 1932 has a film won Best Picture without any nomination from the tech branches.  In the case of the classic Edmund Goulding picture, it was the film’s sole nomination.  A win isn’t needed but at least one nomination would need to be made.  Look at last year’s critical darlings “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” that failed in that same regard.

And then we have films like “Roma” from Netflix, looking to nab itself quite a bit of love, with break a slew of records and make history.  It will be the first streaming film to be nominated for Best Picture, Alfonso Cuaron could nab a record five nominations in one day (producing, directing, screenwriter, cinematography, and film editing), and one of the film’s producers, Gabriela Rodriguez, will become the first Hispanic woman nominated in the top category.

Films like “The Favourite” could show considerable strength if Yorgos Lanthimos pops up in Best Director and Barry Jenkins’ beautiful drama “If Beale Street Could Talk” is hoping to make a comeback a la “Phantom Thread” and grab all the major love it can with three possible wins on the table for supporting actress, adapted screenplay, and original score.

Lastly, “First Man” is being predicted in too many technical races to be ignored in Best Picture.  Giving myself the “six” rule limit, Damien Chazelle’s biographical film is predicted in production design, cinematography, film editing, sound mixing, sound editing, visual effects, and original score.  How can all that not amount to a Best Picture nomination?  Especially if you throw Claire Foy in the mix after Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA nominations, it would be too many notations and become one of the highest nominated films in Oscar history to not receive a Best Picture nomination.  Technically, it would tie “Dreamgirls” from 2006 for the distinct honor.

Check out the final Oscar Predictions down below listed but you can head over to The Circuit Hub to not only find the official rankings, but our PRECURSORS CHART officially re-launched with all the winners from this season and who leads:

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Updated: 1/21/2019

BEST MOTION PICTURE

  • Bohemian Rhapsody” (20th Century Fox)
    Jim Beach, Robert DeNiro, Graham King, Brian May, Peter Oberth
  • BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Features)
    Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele, Shaun Redick
  • Black Panther” (Marvel)
    Kevin Feige
  • The Favourite” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
  • First Man” (Universal Pictures)
    Wyck Godfrey, Marty Bowen, Isaac Klausner, Damien Chazelle
  • Green Book” (Universal Pictures)
    Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
  • If Beale Street Could Talk” (Annapurna Pictures)
    Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Barry Jenkins, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski
  • Roma” (Netflix)
    Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
  • A Star is Born” (Warner Bros.)
    Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor, Jon Peters, Todd Phillips

DIRECTOR

  • Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”)
  • Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”)
  • Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”)
  • Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”)
  • Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Christian Bale (“Vice”)
  • Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”)
  • Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”)
  • Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
  • Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
  • Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
  • Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
  • Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”)
  • Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
  • Timothée Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
  • Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”)
  • Sam Elliott (“A Star is Born”)
  • Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Amy Adams (“Vice”)
  • Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
  • Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots”)
  • Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
  • Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Eighth Grade” (Bo Burnham)
  • The Favourite” (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
  • First Reformed” (Paul Schrader)
  • Green Book” (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)
  • Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • BlacKkKlansman” (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
  • Black Panther” (Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole)
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)
  • If Beale Street Could Talk” (Barry Jenkins)
  • A Star is Born” (Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth)

ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Early Man” (Nick Park)
  • Incredibles 2” (Nicole Paradis Grindle, Brad Bird)
  • Isle of Dogs” (Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin)
  • Mirai” (Mamoru Hosoda)
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Black Panther” (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)
  • The Favourite” (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)
  • First Man” (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)
  • Mary Poppins Returns” (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)
  • Roma” (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Cold War” (Lukasz Zal)
  • The Favourite” (Robbie Ryan)
  • First Man” (Linus Sandgren)
  • Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)
  • A Star is Born” (Matthew Libatique)

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Black Panther” (Ruth E. Carter)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody” (Julian Day)
  • The Favourite” (Sandy Powell)
  • Mary Poppins Returns” (Sandy Powell)
  • Mary Queen of Scots” (Alexandra Byrne)

FILM EDITING

  • BlacKkKlansman” (Barry Alexander Brown)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody” (John Ottman)
  • First Man” (Tom Cross)
  • A Star is Born” (Jay Cassidy)
  • Vice” (Hank Corwin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • Black Panther” (Joel Harlow, Camille Friend, Ken Diaz)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody” (Jan Sewell, Charlie Hounslow-Smith, Rebecca Cole)
  • Border” (Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer)

SOUND MIXING

  • Black Panther” (Steve Boeddecker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody” (John Casali, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin)
  • First Man” (Mary H. Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee)
  • Roma” (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)
  • A Star is Born” (Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder)

SOUND EDITING

  • Black Panther” (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)
  • First Man” (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
  • Mary Poppins Returns” (Renee Tondelli, Eugene Gearty)
  • A Quiet Place” (Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)
  • Ready Player One” (Gary Rydstrom, Richard Hymns)

VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Avengers: Infinity War” (Dan Deleeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick)
  • Black Panther” (Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick)
  • First Man” (Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles)
  • Ready Player One” (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew Butler, David Shirk)
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story” (TBD)

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • BlacKkKlansman” (Terence Blanchard)
  • First Man” (Justin Hurwitz)
  • If Beale Street Could Talk” (Nicholas Britell)
  • Isle of Dogs” (Alexandre Desplat)
  • Mary Poppins Returns” (Marc Shaiman)

ORIGINAL SONG

  • “All the Stars” from “Black Panther” (Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solana Rowe, Al Schuckburgh)
  • “Revelation” from “Boy Erased” (Jon Thor Birgisson, Troye Sivan, Brett McLaughlin)
  • “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)
  • “I’ll Fight” from “RBG” (Diane Warren)
  • “Shallow” from “A Star is Born” (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Dark Money” (Kimberly Reed, Katy Chevigny)
  • Free Solo” (Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi)
  • Shirkers” (Sandi Tan)
  • Three Identical Strangers” (Tim Wardle)
  • Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (Morgan Neville)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Capernaum” (LEBANON)
  • Cold War” (POLAND)
  • The Guilty” (DENMARK)
  • Roma” (MEXICO)
  • Shoplifters” (JAPAN)

ANIMATED SHORT

  • Animal Behaviour
  • Bao
  • Bird Karma
  • Late Afternoon
  • Pépé le Morse

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • End Game
  • LIFEBOAT
  • My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
  • Period. End of Sentence
  • Zion

LIVE ACTION SHORT

  • Caroline
  • Chuchotage
  • Detainment
  • Fauve
  • May Day

Be Sure To Check Out Our Official Oscar Predictions Page To See Where The Contenders Rank!