| BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE |
| AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE… |
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| Oprah Winfrey
The Butler |
Julia Roberts
August: Osage County |
Catherine Keener
Captain Phillips |
Cameron Diaz
The Counselor |
Cate Blanchett
The Monuments Men |
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3 |
4 |
5 |
| FOR HER:
She’s Oprah. People worship her. Taking her first acting role in years will definitely get people’s attention. Also, playing the supportive wife role, Oscar’s favorite. |
FOR HER:
Previous Oscar-winner that Oscar loves. It’s a co-lead role that could do wonders in supporting. |
FOR HER:
You can look at Keener and see an Oscar in her hand in a few years. She’s been nominated twice and is just awaiting the right role. Also, SUPPORTIVE WIFE! |
FOR HER:
Early readings of the script suggest she has THE role of the women. She’s been on the cusp many times. This could be the time Oscar finally notices. |
FOR HER:
When Cate takes on a role, she usually does great things with it, even if the film isn’t good (Think Bandits). This could be her comeback to the ceremony. |
| AGAINST HER:
If the film bombs in a big way, it’ll be hard for her to overcome the negative reviews with a late summer release. |
AGAINST HER:
Because it’s a co-lead, there may (and will) be many shouting CATEGORY FRAUD. She could be campaigned alongside Streep. |
AGAINST HER:
The trailer that debuted had her absent. Is her role meaty enough? |
AGAINST HER:
The last time she was REALLY in contention was Gangs of New York (2002), over a decade ago. The film could not be Oscar’s cup of tea. |
AGAINST HER:
She also has Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, a role they could easily bite for. |
| PREDICTIONS COMMENTARY |
| Best Supporting Actress looks mighty exciting this year. Lots of overdue women in contention and many playing the favorite Supporting Actress role: The Supportive Wife. After the trailer, Oprah Winfrey looked pretty terrific in The Butler. I have to give the edge to her until official reviews come out. With a co-lead and likely some convincing coming from the Weinstein Company, Julia Roberts could be going for Oscar #2 in August: Osage County unless they place her where she belongs alongside Streep. Overdue ladies looking for final recognition include the beautiful Catherine Keener who could be something in Paul Greengrass’ Captain Phillips; Amy Adams who has searched for the one to win it all and could have found it in David O. Russell’s American Hustle; and don’t forget the villainous turn coming from Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives. Cannes cited her quite a bit despite mixed reception for the film. Loving this category this year. |
| NEXT IN LINE |
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| Penelope Cruz
The Counselor |
Naomie Harris
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom |
Amy Adams
American Hustle |
Sally Hawkins
Blue Jasmine |
Margo Martindale
August: Osage County |
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| FOR HER:
Just when you think she’s a one-trick pony, she can nab the sole acting nomination for a poorly reviewed film (Nine). She’s also said to have a meaty role. |
FOR HER:
Another Supportive Wife role. Naomie Harris could compliment Idris Elba perfectly. |
FOR HER:
4 nominations to her credit. This could be the one that wins it for her. Fresh off her nod for The Master (2012). Also has a great turn in Man of Steel and possibly in Spike Jonze’s Her. |
FOR HER:
Trailer suggests a promising turn. Oscar missed big for Happy Go Lucky. She also delivers a memorable turn in Almost Christmas which could help. |
FOR HER:
A terrific character actress with a great role to get her noticed. If Roberts goes Lead, watch out for her to snag a spot. |
| AGAINST HER:
Though this category double dips for women from the same film, they may go for just Diaz. |
AGAINST HER:
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom needs to be a big player all-around for her to make it. Not famous enough quite yet. |
AGAINST HER:
She’s been the bridesmaid but never the bride. They still may make her wait. She also could split votes with herself. Internal competition brews as well. |
AGAINST HER:
Cate Blanchett could steal the show. Woody Allen films are not always consistent. Look at To Rome, With Love. |
AGAINST HER:
She needs Roberts in Lead. If not, she’s likely toast. |
| OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS |
| Octavia Spencer
Fruitvale Station |
Kristin Scott Thomas
Only God Forgives |
Adepero Oduye
12 Years a Slave |
June Squibb
Nebraska |
Carey Mulligan
Inside Llewyn Davis |
| 11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| Julie Andrews
The Wolf of Wall Street |
Annette Bening
Girl Most Likely |
Jennifer Garner
Dallas Buyer’s Club |
Laura Linney
The Fifth Estate |
Vanessa Redgrave
Foxcatcher |
| 16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
| ALSO IN CONTENTION |
| Jennifer Hudson
Black Nativity |
Shirley MacLaine
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty |
Viola Davis
Prisoners |
Jacki Weaver
Labor Day |
Marcia Gay Harden
Parkland |
| 21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Rachel McAdams
A Most Wanted Man |
Nicole Kidman
The Railway Man |
Samantha Morton
Her |
Sienna Miller
Foxcatcher |
Jessica Lange
Therese |
| 26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
| Viola Davis
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers |
Maria Bello
Prisoners |
Elizabeth Olsen
Oldboy |
Zoe Saldana
Out of the Furnace |
Jennifer Lawrence
American Hustle |
| 31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
| Melonie Diaz
Fruitvale Station |
Lupita Nyong’o
12 Years a Slave |
Julianne Moore
Carrie |
Lea Seydoux
The Grand Budapest Hotel |
Amy Adams
Man of Steel |
| 36 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
40 |
| PREDICTION TRACKER |
| JUNE 9, 2013 |
| Cate Blanchett-
The Monuments Men |
Cameron Diaz-
The Counselor |
Catherine Keener-
Captain Phillips |
Julia Roberts-
August: Osage County |
*Oprah Winfrey-
The Butler |
| MAY 12, 2013 |
| Cate Blanchett-
The Monuments Men |
Cameron Diaz-
The Counselor |
Catherine Keener-
Captain Phillips |
Julia Roberts-
August: Osage County |
*Oprah Winfrey-
The Butler |
