Best Picture
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

PREDICTIONS

The Nominees

Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Meryl Streep - Doubt Angelina Jolie - The Exchange Nicole Kidman - Australia Sally Hawkins-Happy Go Lucky
FOR HER:  The youngest Oscar nominee with 5 to her credit.  Directed by her husband and teamed up with Leo should secure a spot for now. (She also has The Reader) FOR HER: The Oscar Queen in a role to die for that could give her another statue for her mantle.  Even if the film flounders, she can still make it to the shortlist. FOR HER:  Eastwood has worked his magic with his leading ladies before.  Contrary to popular belief, Jolie can really act her ass off. FOR HER: Hasn't been back to the ceremony in a while, should have some chemistry with Baz again. FOR HER: A Mike Leigh film that already has the buzz.  We always welcome a new face to Hollywood.
AGAINST HER: Because she's young, Oscar may still feel appropriate to wait to reward her especially if Meryl lives up to the hype. AGAINST HER:  Meryl does tend to take breaks from the Academy.  Maybe they just don't want to give her another statue. AGAINST HER: Her personal life is a hurtle.  A Mighty Heart was one of the best performances of last year and she was still left off. AGAINST HER: The film will be a technical frenzy and may not be much of an actor's piece.  Or the film could be bad all together. AGAINST HER: The film may be too small to get noticed.  Needs a big push from the studio.
Don't Count Out
Keira Knightley - The Duchess Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria Julianne Moore-Blindness Kate Beckinsale-Nothing But the Truth Laura Linney-The Other Man
FOR HER:  Slowly becoming the real deal amongst older, more well known women in Hollywood.  This may remind us of how we fell in love with her in Pride & Prejudice. FOR HER: Loved her in The Devil Wears Prada, now something new that we can see her acting legs stretched. FOR HER Another overdue actress that is looking for her 1st statue.  Mierelles' film are usually golden for women. FOR HER: Early word is very positive and this could be the chance for her to breakout as a very serious actress. FOR HER: She is Laura Linney and when nearly all the precursors ignored her, she still made the cut last year.  That's support.
AGAINST HER: May be repetitive for voters and English period dramas aren't as common as they used to be with the Academy.  And Emily Blunt. And The Edge of Love AGAINST HER: Pretty much the same for Knightley and they actually are each other's competition for a slot. AGAINST HER: Cannes didn't favor the film which hurts her campaign.  Will America think differently? AGAINST HER: Bigger names, bigger projects, and co-star Vera Farmiga is more overdue for recognition and may steal the show. AGAINST HER: No buzz for her film as of lately.  We need some media buzz.
Also in Competition
Anne Hathaway-Rachel Getting Married Diane Lane-Nights at Rodanthe Sophie Okonedo-Skin Natalie Portman-Brothers Drew Barrymore-Grey Gardens
Scarlett Johansson-Vicky Cristina Barcelona Sienna Miller-The Edge of Love Summer Bishil-Nothing is Private Cate Blanchett-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Winona Ryder - The Informers
   
 SUMMING IT UP:

Top 5 are nearly the same but the buzz for Sally Hawkins is really starting to grow...we may be in store for a newbie at the ceremony.  Kate Beckinsale and Laura Linney join the Top 10.  Cate Blanchett's category confusing is starting to bug me lately.  Lead or supporting?

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The Tracker

May 1, 2008

Nicole Kidman-Australia Keira Knightley-The Duchess Julianne Moore-Blindness Meryl Streep-Doubt Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road*

May 15, 2008

Nicole Kidman-Australia Julianne Moore - Blindness Jill Scott - The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency Meryl Streep-Doubt Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road*

June 1, 2008

Angelina Jolie - The Exchange Nicole Kidman-Australia Julianne Moore - Blindness Meryl Streep-Doubt Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road*

July 20, 2008

Sally Hawkins-Happy Go Lucky Angelina Jolie-The Exchange Nicole Kidman-Australia Meryl Streep-Doubt Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road*