Best Picture
BEST MOTION PICTURE

PREDICTIONS

THE PREDICTED FIVE (IN ORDER)

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

AUSTRALIA

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

MILK

CHANGELING

(THE EXCHANGE)

FOR IT: The trailer that premiered put this film on the map as a huge contender.  At this point, it looks like the one to beat. FOR IT:  New posters, trailer looking good, buzz seems to be building on this Australian epic.  FOR IT:  An acclaimed novel with a stellar cast and a great director promises to be a great relationship drama a la Far from Heaven & Little Children FOR IT: A heavy political film in a very heavy political year for America that may speak volumes... FOR IT: Cannes was very kind to this Eastwood film.  Is it another hit for the veteran director?
AGAINST IT: Being touted as the early frontrunner can be helpful but if its anything less than A+ material, it could be left in the dust. (Cold Mountain, Dreamgirls) AGAINST IT: Expectations may be too high or there may be bigger, more potent projects hitting the scene that will overshadow it. AGAINST IT: Relationship dramas do well in Acting and Screenplay categories, its rare for them to walk away with the big one.  Buzz seems mute at the moment. AGAINST IT: ...but has homosexual subject matter and from what we saw with Brokeback Mountain, that sometimes doesn't sit well with some voters. AGAINST IT:  Europe loved it, doesn't mean America will.
(DON'T COUNT OUT)
THE DARK KNIGHT DEFIANCE THE ROAD DOUBT APPALOOSA
FOR IT: Now the 2nd highest grossing film of all time, can it make the cut?  can the buzz continue? FOR IT: Defiance has many of the ingredients for an Oscar contender; Holocaust, war, upcoming stars in need of recognition. FOR IT: This Cormac McCarthy book is getting very good buzz right now and fresh off the Coen's last year, this seems to be in the mix. FOR IT: Still waiting for a trailer but still looks very promising with Meryl Streep helming this ship. FOR IT: Last year's 3:10 to Yuma & Jesse James showed that westerns are back and with a vengeance.  Could it be time to reward one again?
AGAINST IT:  People are saying its either the entire film or just Nolan that will make the cut. That can cause a split and both can be ignored. AGAINST IT:  The poster is kind of terrible, you can't judge a film by its trailer, and Zwick is very hit and miss.  This could bomb altogether. AGAINST IT: In comparison to past films and books, this is the darkest in contention, maybe too dark for voters. AGAINST IT: Quiet buzz, quiet everything.  AGAINST IT: Needs to be across the board amazing to critics and voters.  Harris needs to step it up from his first work Pollack.
ALSO IN CONTENTION
FROST/NIXON VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA HOUSE OF LIES MIRACLE AT ST. ANNA SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK
Poster Coming Soon Poster Coming Soon Poster Coming Soon
HAPPY GO LUCKY GRAN TORINO RACHEL GETTING MARRIED THE SOLOIST BROTHERS
   
 SUMMING IT UP:

Buzz has been building for a few projects as the summer winds down; Australia is looking very promising, The Dark Knight had the best month of any film in history but I may feel I jumped the gun in putting it in my Top 5, The Road is really looking good at this point as well as Appaloosa.  Can we have a confirmation on the title for Clint Eastwood's film by the way?  Is it Changeling or The Exchange?  Buzz is dying for Revolutionary Road & The Soloist, where are posters and trailers?  The Reader & Che are looking less likely to come out this year so they have been left off.  Also, Valkyrie may not be in the Top 20 but we are keeping a close eye on it...

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The Tracker

May 1, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CHANGELING THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON DOUBT REVOLUTIONARY ROAD*

May 15, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* DOUBT REVOLUTIONARY ROAD SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK

June 1, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* DOUBT THE EXCHANGE REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

July 1, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* DOUBT THE EXCHANGE REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

July 20, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* THE DARK KNIGHT MILK REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

August 25, 2008

AUSTRALIA THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* CHANGELING (THE EXCHANGE) MILK REVOLUTIONARY ROAD