The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
FOR IT:
An early year favorite.  Top
ten mention with NBR.  
Critical success.  Strong
Lead trio.  War films hit the
right notes with the
Academy.
FOR IT:
Jason Reitman, son of
famous Ivan.  Perfect blend
of comedy and drama.  
Strong performances from
the ensemble.  Sure to be
the critical darling.
FOR IT:
Big musical production.  A
smorgasbord of A-list
talents.  Mix of fun with
serious with songs thrown
in.
FOR IT:
Performances from Sidibe
and Mo'Nique.  Critical
success.  Oprah Winfrey
backing.  The public loves it.
FOR IT:  
Academy friendly subject
matter.  The Coens are
loved by the Academy.  
There are some people
who really LOVE the film.
AGAINST IT:
An early year release may
not have retained the buzz
it needs to win.  If it were
released in November, it'd
be a shoo-in.
AGAINST IT:
Comedies are rarely
rewarded in the big
category.
AGAINST IT:
It lacks (to some people) an
emotional connection.  The
NBR miss in the Top 10
stings.
AGAINST IT:  
Urban-dramas is not an
Academy friendly subject.  
It needs critical backing.
AGAINST IT:
There are people who love
it, and people who hate it.  
Critics need to be on its
side.
BEST MOTION PICTURE
PREDICTIONS BY: CLAYTON DAVIS
THE PREDICTED TEN ARE...(IN ORDER)
Invictus
Up
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
FOR IT:
Clint Eastwood.  Nelson
Mandela story.  Morgan
Freeman's lead turn.  
Inspiring story.
FOR IT:
The Animated Feature
frontrunner.  Pixar's snubs
throughout the years.  The
campaign it big right now.
FOR IT:
Relationship drama.  Carey
Mulligan's bravura
performance.  A great
ensemble work.  Lone
Scherfig, in a year of
women directors.
FOR IT:
The Fanboys are screaming
for it.  Tarantino's return to
form.  Christoph Waltz's
performance.  Academy
friendly subject, especially
the third act.
FOR IT:
The "hush hush" for the
project all year.  James
Cameron's passion film.  
Visual spectacle.
AGAINST IT:
Is the Academy tired of
Clint yet?  If we go by last
year, then the answer is
yes.
AGAINST IT:
It has its own category to
win.  Is there room for
Animated work yet?
AGAINST IT:
Buzz has been quiet.  The
film needs a resurrection.
AGAINST IT:
Not "traditional" Academy
bait.  The fanboys could
hurt its chances (like The
Dark Knight).
AGAINST IT:  
It needs to live up to the
hype.  There are many
excited for it, which can
hurt if its not spectacular.
Star Trek
The Lovely Bones
The Last Station
District 9
Where the Wild Things Are
Julie & Julia
Crazy Heart
A Single Man
Bright Star
(500) Days of Summer
The Road
It's Complicated
Public Enemies
Everybody's Fine
This Is It
BACK TO MAIN PAGE
TRACKER
SUMMING IT UP:
The National Board of Review named Up in the Air, the Best Picture of the Year, which has locked it into the Oscar race.  The Hurt Locker is also
locked in for a second spot and at this point, the one to beat.  It has more Academy-friendly subject matter that could land a woman, a first time
directing Oscar.  Precious seems a bit hurt by the NBR but is in no way out of the hunt.  We know that no one has really seen Avatar, which would
explain its absence from the NBR but we shall see this week.  I dropped The Lovely Bones from the Top Ten.  There are too many split thoughts on
the film.  There are people who loved it and people who didn't like it.  No one really hates it but that doesn't mean it deserves an Oscar nod either.  
Watch out for Star Trek, The Last Station, and District 9 who could sneak in at any moment's time.  The Golden Globes will clear some stuff up.  The
big mystery of the season is how will the Academy take to Inglourious Basterds.  It's an historical epic, not typical as it changes history, but how do
voters feel about that?  At the end of the day, we have to ask ourselves, the same question posed last season, is the Academy "cool" enough to
nominated Inglourious Basterds?  Star Trek?  District 9?  We'll find out soon.
February 23, 2009 (YEAR IN ADVANCE)
The Human Factor
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
March 16, 2009
The Human Factor
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
Shutter Island
May 1, 2009
An Education
The Human Factor
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Shutter Island
June 18, 2009
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
July 15, 2009
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Up
August 23, 2009
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
September 14, 2009
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
October 1, 2009
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
October 15, 2009
An Education
The Hurt Locker
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
November 2, 2009
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
NOVEMBER 12, 2009
AVATAR
AN EDUCATION
THE HURT LOCKER
INVICTUS
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE
NOVEL 'PUSH' BY SAPPHIRE
A SERIOUS MAN
UP
UP IN THE AIR
December 1, 2009 (PRE-NBR)
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
December 9, 2009
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious: Based on the
Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
ALSO IN CONTENTION
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