Best Picture
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

PREDICTIONS

The Nominees

Heath Ledger-

The Dark Knight

Liev Schreiber-

Defiance

Philip Seymour Hoffman-

Doubt

Michael Shannon -

Revolutionary Road

Josh Brolin-

Milk
FOR HIM:  As said by one of the nation's top critics, The Joker should be charged with one more crime, "stealing the show."  Ledger is remarkable and the posthumous nomination should be in the future. FOR HIM:  Said to completely steal the show in this Edward Zwick film, whom has had his supporting actors nominated quite a few times. (Washington, Watanabe, Hounsou) FOR HIM: Given the 'meatyness' of the role, Hoffman should chew through the scenes like a shark. FOR HIM: An great working actor that has been around for sometime just waiting to make his breakthrough. FOR HIM: The only actor from No Country for Old Men to go completely unnoticed last awards season.  As the assassin of Mr. Milk, he should have some great scenes.
AGAINST HIM: Even though its more than a superhero movie, some voters may still see that way.  Critics awards will need to be in his favor. AGAINST HIM: Early word is good but who knows if its even true.  Lots of internal competition. AGAINST HIM:  Could go lead?  Streep could steal the show. AGAINST HIM: The film will probably need to be an all around hit to keep him on voters minds in the coming months. AGAINST HIM:  When the character isn't liked in a film, the Academy does tend to ignore.
Don't Count Out

Michael Sheen-

Frost/Nixon

Demian Bichir-

Guerrilla

Kodi Smit-McPhee-

The Road

Robert Downey, Jr.-

The Soloist

Jason Butler Harner -

The Exchange
FOR HIM: Voters might remember that he should have been nominated for The Queen. FOR HIM: Fidel Castro is a complex character that should give any actor the meat to a nomination. FOR HIM: The child actors always show up once in a while and its been a while since we've seen them, especially with the boys. FOR HIM: Said to be the supporting role that reminds voters that he's one of the most talented actors working today.  Iron Man helps a little. FOR HIM: Positive word of mouth for his role in Eastwood's film at Cannes.  Possibly the breakout star of 2008?
AGAINST HIM: There's some talk about him going lead which really hurts his chances if that happens. AGAINST HIM: The buzz from Cannes was positive for Del Toro but there was nearly no mention of him.  A sign of bad things to come? AGAINST HIM:  The book is very dark natured, and sometimes the Academy ignores the young ones even if they are great. (Freddie Highmore anyone?) AGAINST HIM: Where is the buzz for the film?  A poster, something that tells us its going to come out this year. AGAINST HIM:  Jolie was praised, Eastwood's direction was praised, not too much for him.  American audiences need to love him.
Also in Competition

John Malkovich-

Burn After Reading

Jamie Bell-

Defiance

Emile Hirsch-

Milk

Russell Crowe-

House of Lies

Tobey Maguire-

Brothers

Gael Garcia Bernal-

Blindness

Ralph Fiennes-

The Duchess

Alan Alda-

Nothing But the Truth

Brad Pitt-

Burn After Reading

Aaron Eckhart-

The Dark Knight
   
 SUMMING IT UP:

The Dark Knight is bigger than expected and Heath Ledger's performance has been universally praised.  He takes frontrunner status, at this point, other contenders will have their work cut out for them if they want to unseat him.
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The Tracker

May 1, 2008
Robert Downey, Jr.-The Soloist Philip Seymour Hoffman-Doubt Heath Ledger-The Dark Knight John Malkovich-The Changeling Michael Sheen-Frost/Nixon*

May 15, 2008
Demian Bichir - Guerrilla Robert Downey, Jr. - The Soloist Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt Liev Schreiber - Defiance Michael Sheen-Frost/Nixon*

June 15, 2008
Robert Downey, Jr. - The Soloist Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road Liev Schreiber - Defiance* Michael Sheen-Frost/Nixon

July 20, 2008

Josh Brolin-

Milk

Philip Seymour Hoffman -

Doubt

Heath Ledger-

The Dark Knight*

Michael Shannon-

Revolutionary Road

Liev Schreiber-

Defiance