Best Picture
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

PREDICTIONS

The Nominees

Taraji P. Henson -

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Penelope Cruz-

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Kathy Bates-

Revolutionary Road

Viola Davis-

Doubt

Kate Winslet-

The Reader

FOR HER:  The role is as juicy as roles go.  She is a very good actress just looking to breakout into the big leagues any day now.

FOR HER:  Cannes has praised her and it seems to the type of role that is similar to her Volver nominated role which did good for her last time up.

FOR HER:  This Oscar royalty is co-starring in a Best Picture frontrunner from an acclaimed novel.  She also gives a stellar performance in Bonneville which helps.

FOR HER: Is said to have the true light of the film.  The new face at the ceremony is always welcomed.

FOR HERThe makeup trick, Revolutionary Road, 5 time nominee that is bound to win.  A double nomination is not out of the question for this actress.

AGAINST HER: Internal competition.  She will probably need Blanchett to go Lead for this to happen.

AGAINST HER: Cannes loved her but will America love her?

AGAINST HER: The role may not have enough meat or there a fresh face may swoop in and steal the spotlight.

AGAINST HER: Amy Adams and unknown status.

AGAINST HER: She may split some votes, and even if she gets nominated, one may take away from the other. (Ex. Julianne Moore-The Hours, Far from Heaven)

Don't Count Out

Vera Farmiga-

Nothing But the Truth

Cate Blanchett-

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Charlize Theron-

The Road

Catherine Keener-

The Soloist

Frances McDormand-

Burn After Reading

FOR HER:  A very dependable working actress just waiting for her chance to shine and breakthrough.

FOR HER: One of the best working actors of today.  Easily a default nominee at this point.

FOR HER: Monster & North Country are two powerful performances that the Academy took notice for, the film is very promising. 

FOR HER:  Snubbed hugely for Into the Wild.  This Joe Wright project may be the makeup.

FOR HER: A wonderful working actress in another Coens' Brother flick, that could give her a very strong women roles.

AGAINST HER: The film has no buzz right now. 

AGAINST HER: Is she Lead?  Henson might steal the spotlight from her.  Indiana Jones...

AGAINST HER: If its anything like the book, her role isn't big at all, it'll need to be developed or she'll need to knock it out of the park.

AGAINST HER: The film has no buzz right now. 

AGAINST HER:  May go lead, may not go anywhere.  The trailer didn't give much promise.

Also in Competition

Amy Adams-

Doubt

Samantha Morton-

Synecdoche, New York

Carice van Houten-

House of Lies

Rosario Dawson-

Seven Pounds

Jessica Lange-

Grey Gardens

Renee Zellweger -

Appaloosa

Michelle Williams-

Synecdoche, New York

Rachel Weisz-

The Brothers Bloom

Emma Thompson-

Brideshead Revisited

Amy Ryan-

The Exchange

   
 SUMMING IT UP:

This category seems as head scratching as any this year.  Winslet moves up to be a possible double nominee, I replace Adams with Davis for Doubt's standout.  Farmiga has buzz growing and industry support and Theron seems to poised for a third nomination sooner or later.

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The Tracker

May 1, 2008

Amy Adams-Doubt* Kathy Bates-Revolutionary Road Cate Blanchett-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Catherine Keener-The Soloist Amy Ryan-The Changeling

May 15, 2008

Amy Adams-Doubt* Kathy Bates-Revolutionary Road Cate Blanchett-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Catherine Keener - The Soloist

June 15, 2008

Amy Adams-Doubt Kathy Bates-Revolutionary Road Cate Blanchett-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*

July 20, 2008

Kathy Bates-Revolutionary Road Penelope Cruz-Vicky Cristina Barcelona Viola Davis-Doubt Taraji P. Henson-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* Kate Winslet-The Reader