OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Actor

Updated: January 13, 2018

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Gary Oldman
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
WAY overdue for love. Winston Churchill is a baity role and judging by the trailer, we are in for something fierce from this one-time nominee ("Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy").
CONS:
It's hard to be the declared frontrunner and survive it all year long. Simply put, he has to be good.

2

Daniel Day-Lewis
“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)

PROS:
One of the greatest living actors is rumored to be retiring. 3-time winner and could be able to become the male Katherine Hepburn.
CONS:
He has many Oscars already and this subject matter may not be necessarily "accessible."

3

Timothée Chalamet
“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Sundance praised him and he could be able to do some damage if the film is a big player.
CONS:
Very young for a Lead Actor candidate. They'll need to REALLY love the film.

4

James Franco
“The Disaster Artist” (A24)

PROS:
SXSW launched the talk that his work here is completely worthy and could find its way to a nomination (following his first for "127 Hours").
CONS:
Comedy in Lead Actor? Good luck, because many have missed over the decades.

5

Denzel Washington
“Roman J. Israel, Esq.” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
Just lost his third Oscar for "Fences" and they may still be in the mood for more Denzel.
CONS:
Reviews weren't exactly glowing. He'll likely sit this one out.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Daniel Kaluuya
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
Brings a natural charisma to his role of a man with lots under the surface other than fear.
CONS:
Unknown and the genre is a huge factor.

7

Tom Hanks
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
Two-time Oscar-winner of "Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump." Hasn't been nominated since "Cast Away" in 2000. Many also remember his shocking snub for "Captain Phillips." Playing a high-profile figure.
CONS:
It's becoming a trend that we think Tom Hanks is going to make it, until he doesn't (i.e. "Saving Mr. Banks," "Sully"). SAG miss.

8

Jake Gyllenhaal
“Stronger” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Still on the hunt for his second nomination following "Brokeback Mountain" in 2005 and a huge snub for "Nightcrawler" a few years ago. Is this his ticket?
CONS:
He always feels close until the rug is pulled out from under him.

9

Christian Bale
“Hostiles” (Entertainment Studios)

PROS:
Academy Award winner for "The Fighter" said to deliver once again and he's becoming a "default" choice for the Academy (remember his nods for "American Hustle" and "The Big Short?").
CONS:
Film needs to be seen by the right people and it's with a new studio.

10

Robert Pattinson
“Good Time” (A24)

PROS:
There are vocal admirers of his work and his post-Twilight career has been steadily rising. Could he be moving towards his eventual Oscar nomination?
CONS:
He needs to do a few more high-profile and well-received films before Oscar bites.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Jeremy Renner
“Wind River” (Acacia Entertainment)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "The Hurt Locker" and "The Town" who delivers his best work in years. If there's a push, he can squeeze in.
CONS:
The stench of Weinstein could still linger.

12

Andrew Garfield
“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)

PROS:
Just nominated for his work in "Hacksaw Ridge." Word is that he's very good and the role is extremely baity by Oscar standards.
CONS:
He may need the film to be a bigger player outside of him.

13

Harry Dean Stanton
“Lucky” (Magnolia Pictures)

PROS:
Gotham nominee. A posthumous and well respected actor.
CONS:
Small film. Will enough voters see it?

14

Sam Elliott
“The Hero” (The Orchard)

PROS:
Veteran actor received career-best reviews. Snubbed for so many, even most recently for "Grandma."
CONS:
Smaller film with an early release. Needs the critics awards to go his way.

15

Steve Carell*
“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Has felt like a contender for some time for a future win with his nomination for "Foxcatcher" and his miss for "The Big Short." If "Battle of the Sexes" falls off, this could be his ticket.
CONS:
Split votes with himself for "Battle of the Sexes."

16

Hugh Jackman
“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Les Miserables" taking on P.T. Barnum.
CONS:
Was also great in "Logan," which is getting a campaign. Could he split?

17

Matt Damon
“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Two big projects this year and as proved by "The Martian," he can get in for just about anything.
CONS:
He doesn't seem to have the "scene" that nabs him his nomination. Even the Venice crowd didn't cite him as much.

18

Chadwick Boseman
“Marshall” (Open Road Films)

PROS:
Has shown promise with well-received performances in films like "42" and "Get On Up." Early word is positive for him.
CONS:
He'll need to show strength at the televised shows.

19

Jamie Bell
“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Received best-in-show reviews out of Telluride and TIFF. Even better than Bening.
CONS:
The film's reviews seem to be so-so. If Bening ain't happening, don't think he will.

20

Algee Smith
“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
Algee Smith is the closest thing to the film's lead and he's phenomenal in his screen time.
CONS:
It's more of an ensemble and he's a "thinner" lead.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Ben Stiller
“Brad’s Status” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Seems to be in line with "Greenberg," which many liked and felt he should have been in contention for.
CONS:
Film's reviews are not that good to get him in a competitive Oscar race.

22

Andy Serkis
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
People have been shouting for an Honorary Oscar for sometime. Doesn't feel like an acting nomination is more apt since it's exactly what he's been doing for this entire franchise? Some voters may feel compelled.
CONS:
They have foolishly campaigned him supporting before. Honestly, actors don't care or see the magic of this...yet.

23

Richard Gere
“Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Has been long overdue for an Oscar nomination despite great performances in films like "Days of Heaven," "An Officer and a Gentleman," "Chicago," and "Arbitrage." The list goes on.
CONS:
The film is rather small and despite it being one of the first screeners to go out, will enough see it and remember it?

24

Bill Pullman
“The Ballad of Lefty Brown” (A24)

PROS:
A character actor that has delivered for decades in a role that's getting a push from A24.
CONS:
If they wanted this to happen, the narrative should have started much earlier. Too little too late?

25

Lakeith Stanfield
“Crown Heights” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Has shown lots of promise after "Short Term 12" with well received performances along the way. Amazon is giving the film a push and he could pop up in places.
CONS:
The film needs to keep building the buzz for anyone get in. He's also young by Best Actor standards.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

| ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |

  • Alec Glass

    Would love some more thoughts as to your predicting Joaquin Phoenix’s nom? I’m so tempted to hop on that train as well but between the fact that he’s not exactly the kind of celebrity that campaigns well are and the potential genre bias against the film for an acting nom, it gives me pause… and yet that Cannes win is sweet…

    • Vasya Terkin

      testing

  • Sentinel666

    My predictions :

    1.James Franco “The Disaster Artist”
    2.Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”
    3.Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”
    4.Joaquin Phoenix “You Were Never Really Here”
    5. Bryan Cranston “Last Flag Flying”

    Next in line :

    6.Denzel Washington “Roman Israel, Esq”
    7.Jake Gyllenhaal “Stronger”
    8.Donald Sutherland “The Leissure Seeker”
    9.Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”
    10.Hugh Jackman “The Greatest Showman”

    • chrosTV

      They did not even include Franco? Are they kidding?

      • Sentinel666

        And He is at 12! But Joaquin Phoenix disappeared :/

  • mads

    Steve Carell a former nominee for ‘Trumbo’?

    • Rapid Readers

      Now, it says former nominee for Les Miserables, and was also good in Logan ?!??

      • Facebook User

        It’s ridiculous how this once “cool site” is being so neglected.

        • Avi Saks

          You do realize they do predictions, not just top 5 either (top 40 for some, top 50 for best picture, 25 for some) with pros and cons for a lot of the films, besides that they do news, podcasts, reviews, FYC tracker, etc. They are busy. Everything won’t always be the most up to date.

  • chrosTV

    Did they throw Sandler and Pattinson out of the race?!

  • Facebook User

    How Jake G. is not in the Top 5 a this time, when all the others work hasn’t been released yet is amazing. This site is really losing people’s interest.

    • “Prediction”. It generally involves guessing things that haven’t happened yet. It wouldn’t be much of a site if it only took into account films that have been released.

    • Todd H

      What people would that be exactly?

      You and……??

      In other words, you are pissy at a Prediction you don’t like, and now suddenly try to say the site is losing interest. (Funny how you post as “Facebook User”, rather than having the balls to at least attach a name to your comment

  • Baggins

    If they really want to get Franco that nomination, their best bet is to not only get nominated but win the Golden Globe for best comedy actor. alot of the time the winner of that award will get the oscar nod.

    • Emi Grant

      They really have a strong chance at winning the Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Actor, only people threatening their chances are Hugh Jackman (who we still haven’t watched) and Kumail Nainjiani

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions (2):

    1.James Franco “The Disaster Artist”
    2.Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”
    3.Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”
    4.Joaquin Phoenix “You Were Never Really Here”
    5.Sam Elliot “The Hero”

    next in line:

    6.Denzel Washington “Roman Israel, esq”
    7.Jake Gyllenhaal “Stronger”
    8.Bryan Cranston or Steve Carrell “Last Flag Flying”
    9.Jeremy Renner “Wind River”
    10. Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”

  • Eric Benzema

    Jonathan Rhys Meyers just snagged Best Actor at the Boston Film Festival.

  • John Smisek

    Have you COMPLETELY forgotten James McAvoy in Split? This is still the best performance of the year. It’s a stretch but he is still safely in at least the top 10

    • michaeldal65

      Way too early a release.

      • John Smisek

        The performance is too good to make a difference.

        Silence of the Lambs

        • Silence of the Lambs went on to win the Big Five. Split will likely be nominated for one or two Saturn Awards at best. Reviews were just ok (62 Metascore) and it was a box-office hit, but nothing more than that. It wasn’t a game-changer in any way, shape or form. It’ll be a long time before people start giving an M. Night Shyamalan movie important awards nominations again. Which is too bad, because McAvoy really is great and deserves to be nominated. But he won’t.

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Andrew Garfield – Breathe
    Tom Hanks – The Post
    Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
    Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

  • Lucas Le Moal

    frankly, if Hugh Jackman gets nominated but not for Logan, I quit keeping an eye on the Oscars !

    • The man’s range as an actor from heavy drama to singing/dancing spectacular while making it all look easy deserves the nomination for either film.

  • Lucas Le Moal

    To me, it’s clear they deserve the nomination : Hugh Jackman (Logan), Gary Oldman (The Darkest Hour), Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger), Matt Damon (Downsizing), Robert Pattinson (Good Time)

  • John

    What do you have against Harry Dean Stanton? I don’t think he’s getting nominated, but I’d say he should be in a top 40.

  • michaeldal65

    Feel confident you can remove Bardem from any discussion. For mother!, it will NEVER happen.

    • Sentinel666

      like Joel Edgerton, Doug Jones, Matt Damon (for “Suburbicon”), Kenneth Branagh, Robert Redford (because of Netflix), Adam Sandler, Hugh Jackman (for “The Greatest Showman”, probably weak role and film), Andrew Garfield (very weak reviews for “Breathe”).

    • Emi Grant

      I think he would still have a chance going for supporting. His performance is pretty damn great (despite what anyone thinks of the film), and there might be a chance of not being total category fraud since Jen does have the majority of the screen time.

  • Patrick Downing

    Jeremy Renner is finally getting some traction for Wind River. Oldman is the only lock so far.

  • Hugh lost to DDL when he should have won. Oldman is the front runner, but I would hate to see Hugh lose in an actor heavy year when he has the Logan backup to show major range, and is it Prisoners all over again with Jackman and Gyllenhaal in competition?

    • Emi Grant

      *Implying DDL shouldn’t have won for Lincoln*

      • Definitely. He is a great actor, but Lincoln was not his best role. When you add in what the people wanted to see, Les Miz is constantly being shown on cable and you have to request Lincoln. There were flaws in Les Miz, but Hugh was magnificent in the role.

        • Emi Grant

          I don’t think that what people want to see has any influence on a performance, man. To be fair, it can’t be his best performance considering his work on There Will Be Blood and Gangs Of New York, but it was still top notch.

  • Michael

    Does this Harvey scandal take Renner out of a top ten? Genuinely wondering…

  • michaeldal65

    Just a little heads up. You have the same pros and cons for Miles Teller and Jason Clarke.

  • DaKardii

    It’s only been a few days, so anything can happen. But I’m convinced that the fallout from the Weinstein scandal is going to have a major negative effect on any actors or actresses who have received Oscar nominations working for him. For that reason:

    -I would move Daniel Day-Lewis down to the “Other Top Tier Contenders” category.

    -I would remove Matt Damon, Christian Bale, and Kenneth Branagh from the list entirely. Bale and Branagh because they are too low on the list to survive being moved down, and Damon because the revelation that he tried to cover up the scandal could mean the end of his career.

    • Sentinel666

      “The Leisure Seeker” will released in USA on january 19th, so Donald Sutherland won’t be nominated in 100%.

      • DaKardii

        You’re right. Thanks.

  • Paul Skye Karim Kahawaty

    What’s good about Kumail Nanjiani in ” The Big Sick”, his performance in there is so mediocre, what kind of move is this, so-called Oscar experts, a political statement, simply to show people of Brown skin that they’re being accepted and treated equally?!

    • Emi Grant

      He’s hilarious and has some pretty good scenes, what are you talking about?

    • Emi Grant

      He’s hilarious and has some pretty good scenes, what are you talking about?

    • hepwa

      I agree. I liked the movie and he is funny but definitely the weakest thing in it, performance-wise. The only thing I’d look at for this one is screenplay and even then…

  • Jonathan

    Sandler is being campaigned in Supporting

  • DaKardii

    Remove Cumberbatch from the list. “The Current War” has been pushed back to 2018 due to the chaos at TWC caused by Harvey’s scandal.

  • Has an actor ever been nominated in this category for a film with reviews as tepid as Breathe?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e675dd64ee6a00cbe5206cfb0de78809f9b1099b546aee3022a0727ea5a84bbe.jpg

    • Jonathan

      I think the last time was Sean Penn in “I Am Sam”, which has 28 on Metacritic (even worse).

      • Coincidentally (or perhaps not), another case of an actor playing a role with a disability.

      • Coincidentally (or perhaps not), another case of an actor playing a role with a disability.

  • Sentinel666

    I can’t understand why Garfield is so high…

  • John

    Well Harry Dean Stanton has been nominated for the Gotham award, not a major precursor but still a precursor, that should at least give him the number 40 spot. Your lack of Stanton on your list is nonsensical.

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions (3):

    1.James Franco “The Disaster Artist”
    2.Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”
    3.Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”
    4.Jake Gyllenhaal “Stronger”
    5.Robert Pattinson “Good Time” (I’m not kidding)

    next in line:

    6.Denzel Washington “Roman Israel, esq”
    7.Timothee Chalamet “Call Me By Your Name”
    8.Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”
    9.Sam Elliot ‘The Hero”
    10.Jeremy Renner “Wind River”

  • Agent42318

    Hugh Jackman for Logan should be top 5. Great performance.

    • He should get the nomination for simply making a huge range of talent look easy and making others look great when they are a film with him.

  • Tee

    I’m not the only one who thinks this year is really top heavy, right?

    1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
    2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    3. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
    4. Steve Carrell – Last Flag Flying
    5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    6. Christian Bale – Hostiles
    7. Timonthee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    8. Tom Hanks – The Post
    9. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    10. Andrew Garfield – Breathe

  • Baggins

    my choices as of right now in alphabetical order

    Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    Sam Elliot – The Hero
    Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman

  • hepwa

    See…you can’t take this seriously with Carrel and Garfield in the top 5 with Chalamet outside of it. Here’s the top 5:

    1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
    2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
    3. Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
    4. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger *

    * weakest in this category, that movie disappeared faster than Roger Stone’s Twitter account.

    • Tee

      I’d hardly accuse it of being incapable of taking seriously- Garfield is my ten seed only because he’s a recent nominee in a British period piece biopics, which Oscar eats up (Colin Firth for King’s Speech, Meryl Streep Iron Lady, etc.). Carell is getting nominated this year; he’s gotten some of the best reviews of both his career and the season so far, and people want him to earn an Oscar eventually. His chances of winning in Lead are slim to none, but he’s most definitely a contender. If he goes supporting, he’s got a pretty good shot at winning it.

      Your comment on Chalamet is a double edge sword; I see him as a contender, but age bias is such a huge factor especially in the male categories. We just got a young male contender with Lucas Hedges, but that was in a more friendly supporting category. Young people getting nominated in Lead Actor is next to unheard of, and the controversy surrounding the film doesn’t help.

      • hepwa

        Carrell is not getting nominated for anything this year. Neither is Garfield, the movie has basically disappeared (it might get a BAFTA nom for Garfield). Age bias is not a consideration and the controversy around this film is overblown and largely ignorant. Chalamet is getting nominated and it will be one of the most deserving nominations in ages.

        • Tee

          I’ve never claimed Chalamet isn’t a contender- but there are factors that need to be considered and statistics that are hard to ignore. I do agree that the controversy is ignorant, but there have been reports of the older male crowds being uncomfortable with it. Having not seen the film I can’t speak for the quality, but absolutely nobody is a lock for the nomination save Oldman.

          I agree with you about Garfield, but what makes you so sure that Carrell won’t get the nod. Even out of NYFF with some very good but no great reviews sans Clayton, Carrell has been consistently praised by everyone universally. It has a narrative- a mourning father and former soldier that lost his son to war on a road trip film, played by an actor who was way overdue for a nomination and is now seeking a win. He’s a longshot for the gold, but he’s actually the closest thing to a lock we have right now.

      • Demetra

        How many times has Andrew Garfield been snubbed these past few years? I think the Academy is over him by now.

        • Tee

          Only once, when you think about it. The only films between Hacksaw and The Social Network were the ASM films and 99 Homes, the former being bad blockbusters and the latter getting overwhelmed by Michael Shannon’s praise.

          If anything, they’re just getting started.

  • Demetra

    1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
    2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    3. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
    4. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    5. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

  • Does anyone even have a clue as to the content of “Phantom Thread”. It’s almost as if DDL is being handed an Oscar for breathing and he already got that one for Lincoln.

    • Emi Grant

      He was great in Lincoln, as for this one, it looks as if he’s going for a more quiet performance. Who knows?

  • Tee

    1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
    2. Steve Carrell – Last Flag Flying
    3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    4. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
    5. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

    6. Timonthee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    7. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    8. Christian Bale – Hostiles
    9. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories
    10. Tom Hanks – The Post

  • RyGuy

    Jackman didn’t make the list for Logan?

  • Jonathan

    I could see Franco winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Comedy or Musical and nabbing a surprise SAG nomination, leading to Oscar nomination.

    • Sentinel666

      Franco should to win all the awards in the world !!!
      He has no competition on Globes, so he will win:)

  • Jonathan

    1. Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)
    2. Daniel-Day Lewis (“Phantom Thread”)
    3. Steve Carell (“Last Flag Flying”)
    4. Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”)
    5. James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”)

    6. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”)
    7. Andrew Garfield (“Breathe”)
    8. Tom Hanks (“The Post”)
    9. Christian Bale (“Hostiles”)
    10. Denzel Washington (“Roman Israel, Esq.”)

  • Isaac

    Why Andrew Garfield and Steve Carrell are so on top, while James Franco and Timothee chalamet are as “the next line”

    • Sentinel666

      Exactly, Franco could be on the #1 or #2 and Timothee on the #3 – #5
      James and Gary are the only actors who can win Oscar in my opinion and James will win Golden Globe in 100%. By the way, “Breathe” has really really weak reviews and I don’t believe Garfield will be nominated to Oscar, only BAFTA and nothing else.

  • Sentinel666

    1.James Franco “The Disaster Artist” (Winner)
    2.Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour” (Alt. Winner)
    3.Daniel Day Lewis “Phantom Thread”
    4.Jake Gyllenhaal “Stronger”
    5.Timothee Chalamet “Call Me By Your Name”

    • Reece

      You’re really banking on The Disaster Artist with all of your predictions, I could only see it with Franco #5, and a screenplay nod

      • Sentinel666

        Yeah, I saw this movie and I can say that’s one of the best movies of the year, and I really want to James win an Oscar for his performance. He deserves on it and Oldman is his only danger. Golden Globe is in his hands 🙂

  • Fabio Ruiz

    I really don’t think Andrew Garfield is a material nominee. James Franco should be in that list. Jake Gyllenhaal deserves to be there and Gary Oldman is in a role that John Lithgow did a superb job, from what I have seen much better than Oldman’s and this is a drawback for his nomination.

    • Sentinel666

      I agree! James is in the first five now on #3, but in my opinion he should be on the Oldman’s place 😀

  • Isaac

    Why Chalamet is now in 8. He has to be on top, Just move Andrew Garfield and put Chalamet or Jake Gyllenhaal, or both.

    • Sentinel666

      Both, I think that Hanks will be not nominated.

  • Emi Grant

    Seriously, get Garfield out of the Top 5, if anything the Top 4 you had before (Oldman, DDL, Gyllenhaal, Carrell) was the most accurate. Franco or Chalamet should be fighting for 5th.

  • Tee

    I’m with most people on keeping Garfield on but getting rid of Chalamet, Gyllenhaal, and especially Carrell. The baity biopic British dude itch is not only covered by Gary Oldman but he’s a threat to take the gold. Considering there’s a variety of more interesting, buzzworthy roles, and the fact that he’s just been nominated, Garfield only feels like a threat at BAFTA and little else.

  • Fabio Ruiz

    What!!!!!! Gyllenhaal out of the top 5. This is outrageous, its one of the best, if not the best performance of the year. Take Andrew Garfield out, he does not belong there as much this year as last year. If anything is good about this performance is that he could keep still in one place because of the character, otherwise he wouldn’t stood in one place for a second.

  • Baggins

    It’s about time you put James Franco in top 5!

    • And I cringe at the possibility of seeing James Franco anywhere. Different strokes and all that.

      • Baggins

        I like Franco and his work, but I understand that he’s not gonna be liked by everyone.

  • chrosTV

    I think you should put Pattinson on a much higher spot. He’s got a real shot at getting nominated after receiving his Indie Spirit Award nomination.

    • Fabio Ruiz

      Please!!! Pattinson performace is a joke.

      • chrosTV

        You’re in the vast minority with that opinion. He received acclaim for his performance in “Good Time” and in my opinion deservedly so!

        • Fabio Ruiz

          I think the loud music of the movie distracted everybody from his feeble performance.

          • Emi Grant

            It certainly distracted you from enjoying the film. Then again, opinions.

  • Fabio Ruiz

    1 – Jake Gyllenhaal
    2 – Gary Oldman
    3 – Daniel Day-Lewis
    4 – James Franco
    5 – Steve Carell

    • Isaac

      Noo, the spot of Steve Carell is for Timothee Chalamet

      • Sentinel666

        we can be surprised, we’ll see 😉

  • DaKardii

    THANKSGIVING PREDICTION

    1. Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)
    2. James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”)
    3. Tom Hanks (“The Post”)
    4. Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”)
    5. Andrew Garfield (“Breathe”)

    6. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”)
    7. Steve Carell (“Last Flag Flying”)
    8. Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”)
    9. Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)
    10. Adam Sandler (“The Meyerowitz Stories”)

  • Isaac

    Timohtee Chalamet in the top 5 now

  • michaeldal65

    Love this latest lineup of Best Actor predictions. Looks about right, even though there’s no official word on Phantom Thread…

    • Demetra

      anyone who is still doubting Chalamet and excluding him from their top 5 can’t be trusted

      • chrosTV

        I also think that Pattinson’s chances at getting nominated are vastly underappreciated.

  • Jonathan

    Since Gyllenhaal always seems to be cut short, I think Carell replaces him.

  • Phoebs1970

    Lol- I have to question if you have seen any of these films??
    Timothée Chalamet should not only be top 5, he should be in the number one spot!! He is winning- and I have a difficult time believing that anyone would place him below the second spot at this point lol!! His performance was just perfect…

    • Isaac

      I agree

    • John

      Clayton makes predictions, not a personal preference list. If you predict the Oscars through preference you’re going to be wrong.

  • Jonathan

    With Hanks winning the NBR, I think that gets the ball rolling to a nomination for him. Oldman and Day-Lewis are practically locks to be nominated. Franco seems to be in a good spot assuming he wins the Golden Globe and picks up steam along the way.

    With those four seeming like good bets, I think the last spot will be a competitive between Carell, Chalamet, Garfield, and Gyllenhaal.

    • chrosTV

      I think that Pattinson could surprise some people.

    • Emi Grant

      I really don’t think Garfield has as much of a chance as Carell, Chalamet and Gyllenhaal. Make it 3.

  • Alec Glass

    I gotta say, I really think you’re reading too much into the age bias on this occasion: after the NYFCC win in combination with the fact that the film itself is ripe with buzz, Timothee seems pretty hard to bet against for a nomination.

  • Sentinel666

    Hanks before Franco.. that’s ridiculous!

  • Isaac

    And Christian Bale before Timothee Chalamet. Also ridiculous

  • Isaac

    I’d move Hanks and Christian Bale and put Jake Gyllenhaal and Timothee Chalamet

  • Irvin Malcolm Contreras

    Honestly, what the hell have you got against Timothee Chalamet and “Call Me By Your Name”? Personally, I think if anyone can take down Oldman, it’s him. Anyone who’s ever seen “CMBYN” will nominate him for the last shot alone. YES, they haven’t nominated anyone younger than 25 in the Best Leading Actor category in over 40 years, but streaks are made to be broken and so far, he’s the only Best Actor candidate who has won awards in all the major precursors so far (Gotham, NBoR and NYFCC). Either you didn’t like the movie and your bias is showing or you’re putting way too much emphasis on either the Academy’s bias against younger actors or homophobia/queasiness on the subject matter. You are LITERALLY making up excuses not to predict him in the top 5. Christian Bale? Come on.

    • Calliope

      From his CMBYN review:

      “The film lives and dies by the extravagant work of Timothée Chalamet, who is earth-shatteringly brilliant in one of the year’s best performances. Chalamet soars in the silences, not needing to deliver a grandiose speech in order to get his point across. It’s a symphony of emotions, orchestrated in a meticulous and euphoric performance that is felt from minute one to the end credits. He displays reservations one moment before melting into a surrendered and passioned lover.”

      Yet not “earth-shatteringly brilliant” enough for a nomination? He is definitely putting way too much emphasis on the age bias. When was the last time an actor as young as Timothee had a role as good as this? He’s the exception, not the rule.

    • John

      I’ll ask what the hell is with you Timothee Chalamet supporters? You act like a damn cult.

    • Lamar

      I think you’re getting loud at the wrong person. You know Clayton liked CMBY, and you know both he and the Academy are not homophobic (just look at their reactions to recent films like Moonlight and Carol), so don’t convince yourself that he didn’t like CMBY when he literally gave it 3.5 stars. If Clayton thinks Chalamet won’t make it, who cares? Clayton still loves his performance, and if the Academy nominates him then these predictions are wrong. Simple as that.

      • Irvin Malcolm Contreras

        I’m just wondering aloud why he seems to be actively avoiding predicting him. Even to the point of predicting Christian Bale ahead of him. He’s placing way too much importance on the “age” bias. Yes, it’s there but I think it’s more of factor on whether or not he wins, not whether or not he could get a nomination. The critics are behind Chalamet, his film has loud, passionate supporters and is a Best Picture candidate. Even people who are problematic on the film admit he’s great. Plus Chalamet is super charming in the campaign circuit. To not predict him in the Top 3 is to suggest Academy members will actually go out of their way to NOT vote for him because there is a rather scant number of strong Best Actor contenders beyond Oldman. Could he still be snubbed? Possible but it seems unlikely at this point.

        • Lamar

          All your points are valid as to why he has a great performance…but Chalamet would be the youngest nominee in over 70 years. If you go by the numbers, it is safer to go with what the Academy has done, not what they might do. Should there be outrage if he misses? Of course. But that should be a criticism of the Academy, not Clayton. And if Clayton is wrong, then that’s an incredible feat by Chalamet, and everyone’s happy.

          • Irvin Malcolm Contreras

            “If you go by the numbers, it is safer to go with what the Academy has done, not what they might do.” I think there are two stats clashing here. The historical bias against younger actors and the actual current state of the race. Which one would be victorious in the end? Again, you have to assess the field: 1. Lead Actor is still not that competitive a category beyond Oldman. Not a lot of candidates with passionate support unlike Leading Actress. 2. Chalamet is in a Best Picture candidate with plenty of critics and industry types passionate about it. He’s doing better in the precursors so far than Oldman. If he was female or a male in his mid-30’s or older, they would say he was a lock.

            • Emi Grant

              Christ, dude. Don’t be so defensive. Maybe he’ll update it with Chalamet on Top 5 today or tomorrow.

              • Calvin Damon

                This. There is plenty of time for Clayton to change his mind

            • michaeldal65

              Geez man these are just predictions, pretty informed ones I must say, but still just predictions. Google Oscar Predictions and check what everyone else is saying. Howl for joy or fury next week with SGA and the Globe announcements. I’m personally very disappointed Jake’s dropped out of the Top 5 on this list but we’ll see.

            • Emi Grant

              Hey, dude. Now you happy?

    • Ryan Hynes

      I lowkey agree. There’s some odd biases going on this prediction season on this site. First T.C. in actor, and against Saoirse Ronan in actress (saying she seems more like a golden globe contender when right now she’s clearly a much stronger frontrunner than Margot Robbie). Odd.

      • Lamar

        Odd biases? These are predictions, not a personal favorites list.

        • Ryan Hynes

          Predictions can still have biases based on how people interpret information….?

          • Lamar

            …So now that you’ve exposed your biases for both Timothee Chalamet and Saoirse Ronan, and you’ve admitted that everyone has biases, your first comment makes no sense. You pretty much said that Clayton’s biases went against your biases. Welcome to life.

            • Ryan Hynes

              Predictions are generally made on likelihood when considering multiple factors. None of the current factors point toward Margot Robbie winning or Tim being snubbed. I liked both Tim and Saoirse’s performance, so my bias wants them to win, but my logic, based on various factors, tells me they won’t. Not sure why that isn’t clear to you, nor am I sure why you care so much.

              • Lamar

                Firstly, this is a comment section about predictions…of course the people who comment here are going to care about predictions; also, you say that I care too much when you are the one who continued this thread almost a month after then last comment. Secondly, having the #1 spot means that they are the safest, not that they are winning (just look to 2016 when he took Mark Rylance out of #1 after the nominations were announced). Lastly, Chalamet would be the youngest lead actor nominated in 79 years…I’d say that’s a significant factor.

    • michaeldal65

      No one’s going to take Oldman down now. Its all his.

  • DaKardii

    POST CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
    2. Daniel Day-Lewis — Phantom Thread
    3. Tom Hanks –The Post
    4. James Franco — The Disaster Artist
    5. Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name

    6. Jake Gyllenhaal — Stronger
    7. Daniel Kaluuya — Get Out
    8. Christian Bale — Hostiles
    9. Andrew Garfield — Breathe
    10. Steve Carell — Last Flag Flying

  • DaKardii

    POST-GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
    2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    3. Tom Hanks -The Post
    4. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    5. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

    6. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    7. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    8. Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.
    9. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
    10. Ansel Elgort – Baby Driver

    • Emi Grant

      I really don’t think Ansel will have any chance outside GG. Definetely not Top 10.

  • Lamar

    Unfortunately, now you’re gonna have people making a ruckus because you don’t have Chalamet at #1.

  • Michael Eduard Gschwandtner

    I think those may be it, but wait for the SAGs.
    If they won’t surprise I’d say it comes down to Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco and Hanks, but they tend to forget Tom Hanks in recent years, so question is who might be potential spoilers if they drop him?

    Washington again? As lone Nomination? No. Kaluuya? Very unlikely to nominate any actors from a horror-(comedy) film.

    I’d go with Gyllenhaal, maybe Jackman (cause of Logans push), or even Wahlberg if they tend to reward the re-shooting of All the Money in the world. But likely not here.

    • Gameoverbaby

      Kaluuya has got GG & SAG. I think he’s in. I think Hanks and Washington even Day-Lewis aren’t safe.

      • Sentinel666

        Agree with that!

  • Baggins

    If they nominate Denzel just because he’s Denzel, I’m done

    • Emi Grant

      I’m afraid they just might

    • Gameoverbaby

      Given they gave Denzel an actual win because he’s Denzel (Training Day), I wouldn’t put it past them.

  • mateusvagner

    Man, what a crazy year .. there is always a position during the season that changes in every critics group nominees, but they always mantain the same ones and we have a idea of “winner”.

    This year we got actors which had points to be considered the winners and a lot against them. Timothe are taking the spotlight winning a important group of critics but he doesnt look like a real best actor winner. Gary Oldman are the dark horse always, today he is veteran with a great role but he lost the favorite spot. Daniel Day Lewis is a god of acting, the last two roles were oscar worthy and taken, but this year he doesnt look so scary to the other ones, and not taking a SAG nominee was worst yet.

    Well, I confused LOL

    • Sentinel666

      Don’t forget about Jamea Franco, he has better chance for win than Day Lewis

  • Emi Grant

    SAG most of the time tend to miss 1 or 2, I’m saying (and hoping) this year is Denzel who misses

  • Calliope

    There is no reason for Bale to be higher than Kaluuya when Hostiles has had zero recognition from any precursors.

  • TomNewYorker

    My Best Actor Predictions are

    Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
    Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
    Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
    James Franco-The Disaster Artist
    Timothee Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name

  • DaKardii

    POST-SAG NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour
    2. James Franco- The Disaster Artist
    3. Timothee Chalamet- Call my by Your Name
    4. Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out
    5. Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread

    6. Tom Hanks- The Post
    7. Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esqu.
    8. Jake Gyllenhaal- Stronger
    9. Hugh Jackman- The Greatest Showman
    10. Ansel Elgort- Baby Driver

    • Anthony Moseley

      Mine is about the same as yours, but I have Hanks barely getting in over Kaluuya.

  • Emi Grant

    This New Year’s Eve, let’s open a cold one to the fantastic performances of McAvoy and Renner, that will sadly not make it in this race.

    • tkasprz

      Cheers!

    • chrosTV

      Don’t forget about Pattinson and Sandler – two once ridiculed actors who delivered unusually qualitative work this year!

    • chrosTV

      Don’t forget about Pattinson and Sandler – two once ridiculed actors who delivered unusually qualitative work this year!

      • Emi Grant

        Only reason I didn’t mention Pattinson is because somewhere, deep in me, I still hope he can make it.

  • Paulo

    don’t know why you guys keep ignoring Timothée Chalamet. He has won every single awards this year. Gary, on the other hand, has won only 3. Wake up, guys.

  • Isaac

    Again with the same bullshit. Denzel over Chalamet?? You gotta be kidding me.. Chalamet has to be on the top. Come one!!

    • Paulo

      Right? I really feel like Timothée is not only getting a nomination but he’ll actually win the whole thing. But I’d take Tom Hanks out of it and keep Denzel in it

  • Iván

    Denzel is not gonna make it cause timothèe is nominated to every single award and he has won some, so put denzel out of the top 5!!!

  • Gameoverbaby

    Hanks and Washington over Chalamet? What craziness is that? I did read your reasoning for this but Timothee has been included in the Best Actor conversation and critics nominations for what seems like forever. I think this is the year that the rule of ‘being too young to be nominated for Best Actor’ is going to be broken with both Chalamet and Daniel K. being nominated.

    And for my official “No Guts, No Glory” nomination: Mark Hamill. God, that would be so glorious.

    • Demetra

      I can’t see them not nominating Chalamet for Best Actor after all these nominations and awards he’s been winning. Especially when majority agree that Chalamet gave the best acting performance of 2017. It would cause major controversy if he was snubbed.

      • michaeldal65

        Yep major controversy. I heard Oscar will be cancelled if he’s not invited to the party.

    • Sentinel666

      Hanks and Washington over Franco?

  • Paula Gajardo

    Timothee is in…100%. I’m totally agree with my fellow movie lovers. And Kaluuya has already won more critics prizes than Hanks. I think Chalamet-Oldman-Day Lewis-Kaluuya and Franco. It would be awesome…and even i adore Oldman I think Chalamet will win the oscar

    • Paulo

      yas. I feel the same. Timothée gave such a spectacular performance. I really feel like he’s going to win.

    • Emi Grant

      That’d be a dope line-up.

    • João

      Just watched and if he’s not nominated it will be one of the biggest snubs of all time

      • Deplorable#1✓ᴺᵃᵗᶦᵒᶰᵃˡᶦˢᵗ🇺🇸✝🇺🇸

        stfu mexican

  • Reece

    1. Gary Oldman
    2. Timothee Chalamet
    3. Daniel Day-Lewis
    4. Daniel Kaluuya
    5. James Franco

    6. Denzel Washington
    7. Tom Hanks

    I think these 7 are the only ones who really have a fighting chance

    • Sentinel666

      Different order man

      1.Gary Oldman
      2.Timothee Chalamet
      3.James Franco
      4.Daniel Kaluuya
      5.Daniel Day Lewis

      6.Denzel Washington
      7.Tom Hanks

      Day Lewis isn’t so safe as lot of people thinking. And I think Franco has a better chance to win than Day Lewis IMO.

      • Zooey Bloom

        Day-Lewis has no precursor support to win this. Not to mention that his film does not have the support either. Day-Lewis has no major critics’ wins, no Globe win. He’ll lose Critics’ Choice as well. He’s NOT nominated for SAG. And his film has missed every guild so far – PGA, WGA, SAG, ASC, Cinema Editors Guild. So nope, Day-Lewis has no shot at winning. He’ll be lucky to just be nominated.

  • Brady Thomas

    Honestly, i know this isnt too likely, but how much of a gag would it be if Oldman ended up missing the nod? They always have a shocking snub somewhere on oscar morning, and its happened in the Best Actor category more than once recently; the fact that the film itself isn’t getting love doesn’t seem to help. I doubt it will happen, but theres still a chance (for the record i think its oldman, chalamet, kaluuya, franco, and day-lewis for probably noms, though Hanks could definitely sneak in)

    • Paulo

      still don’t get why they keep putting chalamet at 6th. It makes absolutely no sense.

      • Isaac

        Exactly. Chalamet has to be on top

      • John

        Clayton’s predicting him to be a Paul Giamatti in Sideways. That doesn’t happen a lot but it can happen.

      • Demetra

        because the guy feels “pressured” and doesn’t want to do what “everyone wants”

        • Lamar

          Or it’s the actual reason and it’s because he thinks that CMBYN isn’t as well liked as everyone thinks it is, and he doesn’t believe that this year’s Oscars will have the youngest nominee in 79 years. But that’s just a guess.

          • Demetra

            No he admitted it in a post.

            • Lamar

              Again, you’re not even trying to provide evidence. What post? What exactly did he say? Show, don’t tell.

              • Demetra

                the one titled “Expect Tears going into winter break” or something like that.

                • Lamar

                  No where in the post did he say he was pressured nor did he say that he doesn’t want to do what everyone wants, or anything of the sort. Please stick to facts and stop pulling things out of nowhere.

                  • @disqus_kYmseZ5Ktc:disqus @disqus_q3KZiedOD8:disqus

                    I appreciate you guys trying to defend my way of thinking. At this point I’ve been ignoring anyone who is stanning for a film that they love so much, it has blinded them to seeing any other perspective on what the film is and how others could interpret it.

                    And to the people that are “quoting” me and presenting them as “fact,” I’d weary on making such frivolous statements.

        • Jason

          Or he’s just going by what he thinks could happen.

          You had Live by Night nominated last year. LMAO.

    • John

      Oldman will never miss. If he was going to miss anywhere it would have been the globes, and that didn’t happen

    • Reece

      I could definitely believe a Gary Oldman miss

      He hasn’t really been getting too much support, and in my opinion I don’t think his performance is spectacular when you take away the cosmetics. Although he HAS landed at the major places, so did Amy Adams for Arrival, who many predicted would win last year

  • Sueboo

    Err, did they just copy/paste Gere, Pullman and Stanfield pro’s and cons?

  • DaKardii

    NEW YEARS PREDICTIONS

    DEFINITELY GETTING NOMINATED

    Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

    WILD CARDS

    Tom Hanks – The Post
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.

  • JP

    So Denzel ‘will likely sit this one out’ but he still is top four? Makes zero sense.

  • Ben

    Kaluuya, Hanks, and Washington might all be fighting for Franco’s spot now.

    • chrosTV

      I think Franco’s still gonna get nominated

      • Sentinel666

        I hope so…

  • Zooey Bloom

    Daniel Day-Lewis is sitting at 2? Really? He has Globe, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA nods. No major critics’ win, just three minor critics’ groups. He has no SAG nomination. He lost the Globe to Oldman.

    Chalamet, Kaluuya, Franco are all ahead of DDL. Franco might fall off due to the allegations, but DDL is number 4 at best.

  • Valentín

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
    2. Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
    3. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
    4. Tom Hanks (The Post)
    5. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

    6. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
    7. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
    8. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
    9. Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
    10. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)

  • DaKardii

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    -Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    -Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    -James Franco- The Disaster Artist
    -Daniel Kaluyya – Get Out
    -Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

  • Iván

    OMG why you keep insisting that denzel is in top 5??? That spot belongs to Daniel kaluuya.

    • Sentinel666

      Agree, Kaluuya is very sure.

      • Reece

        Definitely, he’s hit SAG, GG, and BAFTA. If he misses, it’s a total snub

        • Iván

          Like Amy Adams last year, so sad.

  • Final Predictions:

    Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
    Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
    James Franco, The Disaster Artist
    Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
    Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour