OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Actress

Updated: September 21, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Margot Robbie
“I, Tonya” (NEON)

PROS:
She's been a hot commodity since her breakout turn in "The Wolf of Wall Street" and also has "Goodbye Christopher Robin" later this year which could help.
CONS:
Can NEON figure out the Oscar game quickly?

2

Kate Winslet
“Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Early word is positive for Winslet's work. After Woody Allen nabbed Cate Blanchett a second Oscar, could Winslet join the club?
CONS:
Not all Woody Allen performances lead to gold.

3

Meryl Streep
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
The Oscar queen taking on another high-caliber role. There are many that want to see her win her fourth before she's done.
CONS:
They can take a Meryl break every now and again. Late entry.

4

Frances McDormand
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Previous winner of "Fargo." Multiple nominee and the reviews have been outstanding thus far.
CONS:
Will it manage to standout among seemingly "bigger" films of the fall?

5

Emma Stone
“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
The recently crowned Best Actress winner of "La La Land" is taking on Billie Jean King. The Telluride reviews are rapturously positive, some saying it tops her work in "La La Land."
CONS:
It simply may not live up to the expectations. Lead Actress is competitive again this year it seems.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Judi Dench
“Victoria and Abdul” (Focus Features)

PROS:
It'll be rather poetic to have Dench snag her eighth nomination exactly 20 years after playing the same role. The performance also checks all the Oscar boxes.
CONS:
Competitive field ahead of her and where else can the film snag love?

7

Jessica Chastain
“Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)

PROS:
Two-time nominee ("The Help" and "Zero Dark Thirty") who is going to be reciting Aaron Sorkin dialogue. It can't go wrong, right?
CONS:
Of all the contenders of the fall, this seems like one of those "failures" of the season. Will Chastain be able to survive that?

8

Sally Hawkins
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
One-time nominee for "Blue Jasmine." She had an aura of Holly Hunter in "The Piano" in the trailer.
CONS:
Mute performances can be tough for an actor to get noticed, especially in a "science-fiction-ish" drama.

9

Annette Bening
“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
A national treasure that is just aching for her first Oscar despite four nominations to her credit.
CONS:
The film's reviews are solid but not enough to be declared a "Julianne Moore-type" winner of the year.

10

Michelle Williams
“All the Money in the World” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
She looks absolutely stunning in the trailer. With another performance in the upcoming "The Greatest Showman," one could help the other.
CONS:
Is it a future flop? And is she a true lead?

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Carey Mulligan
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has been aching to get her second nomination following "An Education," with snubs for such films as "Shame" and "Inside Llewyn Davis."
CONS:
Said to be an ensemble piece and may be a bit thin for a lead run.

12

Jennifer Lawrence
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Winner of "Silver Linings Playbook," delivers her finest portrait yet.
CONS:
It's a competitive Lead Actress race this year. The critical divide.

13

Saoirse Ronan
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Brooklyn" and "Atonement," who received great praise out of Telluride and TIFF. Can she begin her Oscar narrative now?
CONS:
She seems more of Golden Globe nominee than an Oscar one, at least for now. Competitive race.

14

Diane Kruger
“In the Fade” (No U.S. Distribution)

PROS:
The festival reviews have been very kind to her thus far. Nearly made it in for "Inglourious Basterds." Is the official submission for Germany.
CONS:
Will enough voters see the film?

15

Nicole Kidman
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Has had a career resurgence that most actresses would dream of. Also in "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" and she feels prime for another Oscar someday.
CONS:
She is just one part of a terrific cast and the Lead Actress race is VERY competitive.

16

Daniela Vega
“A Fantastic Woman” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

17

Helen Mirren
“The Leisure Seeker” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Every time she has a movie, she's in the hunt for something. Reviews are good.
CONS:
Sutherland seems to be eating up the love for the film.

18

Debra Winger
“The Lovers” (A24)

PROS:
One of those actresses we missed that should have an Oscar and doesn't. Her turn in this first half film was well-regarded.
CONS:
A24 will have to give a proper push for her to make it in this competitive lineup.

19

Marion Cotillard
“Ismael’s Ghosts” (Magnolia Pictures)

PROS:
Oscar-winner for "La Vie en Rose" and nominated again for "Two Days, One Night." Is Cotillard finally back to being noticed by the Academy?
CONS:
The film is smaller and she'll need the critics to help out like last time.

20

Brie Larson
“The Glass Castle” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Previous Oscar-winner of "Room" is fiercely delightful in this biopic.
CONS:
The film was split from critics. She'll likely sit this one out.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Kate Winslet
“The Mountain Between Us” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
Academy Award winner for "The Reader" that nearly won her second for "Steve Jobs." Also has "Wonder Wheel" this year.
CONS:
"Wonder Wheel" will more than likely be her pony.

22

Daisy Ridley
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
Our next Sigourney Weaver?
CONS:
Likely not.

23

Brooklyn Prince
“The Florida Project” (A24)

PROS:
A young talent that Oscar may feel compelled to vote for. Think this year's Quvenzhane Wallis?
CONS:
Kids in Lead are such a rarity, and the film has to show strength elsewhere. There's only so many Keisha Castle-Hughes in the history.

24

Jane Fonda
“Our Souls At Night” (Netflix)

PROS:
A legend among many. Pushed by Netflix.
CONS:
The film's buzz is quiet.

25

Rebecca Hall
“Professor Marston & the Wonder Women” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
A legend among many. Pushed by Netflix.
CONS:
The film's buzz is quiet.

26

Margaret Qualley
“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

27

Glenn Close
“The Wife” (No U.S. Distribution)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

28

Jessica Chastain
“The Zookeeper’s Wife” (Focus Features)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

29

Gal Gadot
“Wonder Woman” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
She's remarkably poised turn as Wonder Woman. She could snag up a few votes.
CONS:
Not in this competitive lead actress race.

30

Millicent Simmonds
“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Young new talent.
CONS:
No one is buzzing.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

31

Sareum Srey Moch
“First They Killed My Father” (Netflix)

PROS:
A young talent that is the beating heart of the film.
CONS:
She would need the film to be a much bigger player than its predicted to be.

32

Sally Hawkins
“Maudie” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
One of the highlights of the first half of the year.
CONS:
Has "The Shape of Water" which is going to eat up a lot of her votes.

33

Salma Hayek
“Beatriz at Dinner” (Roadside Attractions)

PROS:
One of the passionate contenders to come out of the first half, with many citing her still.
CONS:
Film is small.

34

Julianne Moore
“Suburbicon” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
One of the passionate contenders to come out of the first half, with many citing her still.
CONS:
Film is small.

35

Isabelle Huppert
“Happy End” (No U.S. Distribution)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

36

Rachel Weisz
“My Cousin Rachel” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
One of the acclaimed performances to come out of the first half of the year. Previous Oscar-winner ("The Constant Gardener") looking for her second nod.
CONS:
With the movie already out on Blu-Ray/DVD, it's seem to have come and gone. Critics will need to rescue it. Highly competitive race.

37

Seo-Hyun Ahn
“Okja” (Netflix)

PROS:
One of the acclaimed performances to come out of the first half of the year. Previous Oscar-winner ("The Constant Gardener") looking for her second nod.
CONS:
With the movie already out on Blu-Ray/DVD, it's seem to have come and gone. Critics will need to rescue it. Highly competitive race.

38

Elizabeth Olsen
“Wind River” (The Weinstein Company)

PROS:
One of the acclaimed performances to come out of the first half of the year. Previous Oscar-winner ("The Constant Gardener") looking for her second nod.
CONS:
With the movie already out on Blu-Ray/DVD, it's seem to have come and gone. Critics will need to rescue it. Highly competitive race.

39

Emma Watson
“Beauty and the Beast” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
The movie is one of the highest grossing films of all-time. Disney will be making a push.
CONS:
Critics were not entirely on board with the film or Emma Watson's auto-tuning.

40

Lily James
“Baby Driver ” (TriStar Pictures)

PROS:
The movie is one of the highest grossing films of all-time. Disney will be making a push.
CONS:
Critics were not entirely on board with the film or Emma Watson's auto-tuning.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |

  • Moritz Schröder

    Here are a few errors with Blake Lively – Maudie & Aaron-Taylor Johnson – First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers !

    • They’ve been fixed. New prediction module with some kinks being worked out over the weekend.

      Thanks for the help.

  • Sentinel666

    My predictions:

    1.Frances McDormand “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.Annette Bening “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
    3.Judi Dench “Victoria and Abdul”
    4.Helen Mirren “The Leisure Seeker”
    5.Diane Kruger “In the Fade”

    Next in Line :

    6.Emma Stone “Battle of the Sexes”
    7.Debra Winger “The Lovers”
    8.Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water”
    9.Jennifer Lawrence “mother!”
    10.Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird”

  • Sentinel666

    What is Elisabeth Moss doing here? I watched “The Square” few hours ago and she was in the film no more than 10-15 minutes …

  • Alec Glass

    It’s always interesting to cross-reference these predictions with the mass aggregation over at Gold Derby. They’re going big over there for Sally Hawkins in TSoW, and I’m rooting for it harrrrd. At first was a bit pissed to see it here at only 8… and then remembered what happened to Amy Adams last year… the scifi acting bias is real indeed, even when the film is actually about the acting. I’m curious to see how the narrative shakes out.