OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Actress

Updated: October 23, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Margot Robbie
“I, Tonya” (NEON)

PROS:
She's been a hot commodity since her breakout turn in "The Wolf of Wall Street" and also has "Goodbye Christopher Robin" later this year which could help.
CONS:
Can NEON figure out the Oscar game quickly?

2

Frances McDormand
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Previous winner of "Fargo." Multiple nominee and the reviews have been outstanding thus far.
CONS:
Will it manage to standout among seemingly "bigger" films of the fall?

3

Sally Hawkins
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
One-time nominee for "Blue Jasmine." She had an aura of Holly Hunter in "The Piano" in the trailer.
CONS:
Mute performances can be tough for an actor to get noticed, especially in a "science-fiction-ish" drama.

4

Emma Stone
“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
The recently crowned Best Actress winner of "La La Land" is taking on Billie Jean King. The Telluride reviews are rapturously positive, some saying it tops her work in "La La Land."
CONS:
It simply may not live up to the expectations. Lead Actress is competitive again this year it seems.

5

Kate Winslet
“Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Early word is positive for Winslet's work. After Woody Allen nabbed Cate Blanchett a second Oscar, could Winslet join the club?
CONS:
Not all Woody Allen performances lead to gold.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Jessica Chastain
“Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)

PROS:
Two-time nominee ("The Help" and "Zero Dark Thirty") who is going to be reciting Aaron Sorkin dialogue. It can't go wrong, right?
CONS:
Of all the contenders of the fall, this seems like one of those "failures" of the season. Will Chastain be able to survive that?

7

Saoirse Ronan
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Brooklyn" and "Atonement," who received great praise out of Telluride and TIFF. Can she begin her Oscar narrative now?
CONS:
She seems more of Golden Globe nominee than an Oscar one, at least for now. Competitive race.

8

Meryl Streep
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
The Oscar queen taking on another high-caliber role. There are many that want to see her win her fourth before she's done.
CONS:
They can take a Meryl break every now and again. Late entry.

9

Judi Dench
“Victoria and Abdul” (Focus Features)

PROS:
It'll be rather poetic to have Dench snag her eighth nomination exactly 20 years after playing the same role. The performance also checks all the Oscar boxes.
CONS:
Competitive field ahead of her and where else can the film snag love?

10

Annette Bening
“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
A national treasure that is just aching for her first Oscar despite four nominations to her credit.
CONS:
The film's reviews are solid but not enough to be declared a "Julianne Moore-type" winner of the year.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Michelle Williams
“All the Money in the World” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
She looks absolutely stunning in the trailer. With another performance in the upcoming "The Greatest Showman," one could help the other.
CONS:
Is it a future flop? And is she a true lead?

12

Daniela Vega
“A Fantastic Woman” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
She can make history being the first transgender actress to be nominated and the word for her is very strong.
CONS:
Will the film be seen enough? Lead Actress is very competitive.

13

Diane Kruger
“In the Fade” (Magnolia Pictures)

PROS:
The festival reviews have been very kind to her thus far. Nearly made it in for "Inglourious Basterds." Is the official submission for Germany.
CONS:
Will enough voters see the film?

14

Cynthia Nixon
“A Quiet Passion” (Music Box Films)

PROS:
Has been making quite a case for herself over the years with performances in "James White" and this early year hit.
CONS:
Lead Actress is very competitive. She'll need a strong kick off like Rachel Weisz ("The Deep Blue Sea") a few years back.

15

Jennifer Lawrence
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Winner of "Silver Linings Playbook," delivers her finest portrait yet.
CONS:
It's a competitive Lead Actress race this year. The critical divide.

16

Brooklynn Prince
“The Florida Project” (A24)

PROS:
A young talent that Oscar may feel compelled to vote for. Think this year's Quvenzhane Wallis?
CONS:
Kids in Lead are such a rarity, and the film has to show strength elsewhere. There's only so many Keisha Castle-Hughes in the history.

17

Nicole Kidman
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Has had a career resurgence that most actresses would dream of. Also in "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" and she feels prime for another Oscar someday.
CONS:
She is just one part of a terrific cast and the Lead Actress race is VERY competitive.

18

Debra Winger
“The Lovers” (A24)

PROS:
One of those actresses we missed that should have an Oscar and doesn't. Her turn in this first half film was well-regarded.
CONS:
A24 will have to give a proper push for her to make it in this competitive lineup.

19

Rebecca Hall
“Professor Marston & the Wonder Women” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
Has received standout notices. After missing out for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" and "Christine," her time is coming.
CONS:
Will the film be seen by enough voters?

20

Helen Mirren
“The Leisure Seeker” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Every time she has a movie, she's in the hunt for something. Reviews are good.
CONS:
Sutherland seems to be eating up the love for the film.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Gal Gadot
“Wonder Woman” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
She's remarkably poised turn as Wonder Woman. She could snag up a few votes.
CONS:
Not in this competitive lead actress race.

22

Brie Larson
“The Glass Castle” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Previous Oscar-winner of "Room" is fiercely delightful in this biopic.
CONS:
The film was split from critics. She'll likely sit this one out.

23

Daisy Ridley
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
Our next Sigourney Weaver?
CONS:
Likely not.

24

Margaret Qualley
“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
She hones a quiet performance and magnifies it with her eyes and words.
CONS:
It seems to be all about Melissa Leo at the moment. Bigger names and performances ahead of her.

25

Sally Hawkins
“Maudie” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
One of the highlights of the first half of the year.
CONS:
Has "The Shape of Water" which is going to eat up a lot of her votes.

26

Rachel Weisz
“My Cousin Rachel” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
One of the acclaimed performances to come out of the first half of the year. Previous Oscar-winner ("The Constant Gardener") looking for her second nod.
CONS:
With the movie already out on Blu-Ray/DVD, it's seem to have come and gone. Critics will need to rescue it. Highly competitive race.

27

Salma Hayek
“Beatriz at Dinner” (Roadside Attractions)

PROS:
One of the passionate contenders to come out of the first half, with many citing her still.
CONS:
Film is small.

28

Jane Fonda
“Our Souls At Night” (Netflix)

PROS:
A legend among many. Pushed by Netflix.
CONS:
The film's buzz is quiet.

29

Jessica Chastain
“The Zookeeper’s Wife” (Focus Features)

PROS:
The film may have been panned by critics but she was a bright spot.
CONS:
"Molly's Game" will be the focus.

30

Charlize Theron
“Atomic Blonde” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Was a force this year with producing credits and becoming a bonafide action star. Her snub for "Mad Max: Fury Road" is still on minds some.
CONS:
The film is not an acting piece. It may do better in tech categories (if that).

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

31

Sareum Srey Moch
“First They Killed My Father” (Netflix)

PROS:
A young talent that is the beating heart of the film.
CONS:
She would need the film to be a much bigger player than its predicted to be.

32

Seo-Hyun Ahn
“Okja” (Netflix)

PROS:
Young new talent. Is very effective as a child fighting for the life of her pet pig.
CONS:
Critics will need to really prove their love for her (and the film).

33

Elizabeth Olsen
“Wind River” (The Weinstein Company)

PROS:
Remember that snub for "Martha Marcy May Marlene?" Many of us do and "Wind River" was a big hit of the summer.
CONS:
Critics of the film are very critical of her character and the performance.

34

Emma Watson
“Beauty and the Beast” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
The movie is one of the highest grossing films of all-time. Disney will be making a push.
CONS:
Critics were not entirely on board with the film or Emma Watson's auto-tuning.

35

Allison Williams
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
Is very impressive as a girlfriend with alterior motives. The film was a big hit.
CONS:
Is she really LEAD? Any buzz going for actresses may go towards Keener and Gabriel.

36

Julianne Moore
“Suburbicon” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Is very impressive as a girlfriend with alterior motives. The film was a big hit.
CONS:
Is she really LEAD? Any buzz going for actresses may go towards Keener and Gabriel.

37

Sienna Miller
“The Lost City of Z” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Continues to pop up in prestige pieces. Can she muster up some support?
CONS:
She's a thinner lead and the film has been virtually forgotten.

38

Natalie Paul
“Crown Heights” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Relative newcomer who has been seen in HBO's "Show Me a Hero" and "The Deuce." Can we all learn her name by the end of the season?
CONS:
She'll need a BREAKOUT citation like NBR to come anywhere close.

39

Anne Hathaway
“Colossal” (NEON)

PROS:
Academy Award winner for "Les Miserables" who has a legion of followers for her work in this first half film. Will they remember it?
CONS:
The bigger question is, have they seen it? Any science fiction votes will likely go to Sally Hawkins at this point.

40

Isabelle Huppert
“Happy End” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Fresh off her first nod for "Elle." Will she able to make it a second time?
CONS:
Word is that she's more supporting.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| FOREIGN LANGUAGE |

  • Moritz Schröder

    Here are a few errors with Blake Lively – Maudie & Aaron-Taylor Johnson – First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers !

    • They’ve been fixed. New prediction module with some kinks being worked out over the weekend.

      Thanks for the help.

  • Sentinel666

    My predictions:

    1.Frances McDormand “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.Annette Bening “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
    3.Judi Dench “Victoria and Abdul”
    4.Helen Mirren “The Leisure Seeker”
    5.Diane Kruger “In the Fade”

    Next in Line :

    6.Emma Stone “Battle of the Sexes”
    7.Debra Winger “The Lovers”
    8.Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water”
    9.Jennifer Lawrence “mother!”
    10.Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird”

  • Sentinel666

    What is Elisabeth Moss doing here? I watched “The Square” few hours ago and she was in the film no more than 10-15 minutes …

  • Alec Glass

    It’s always interesting to cross-reference these predictions with the mass aggregation over at Gold Derby. They’re going big over there for Sally Hawkins in TSoW, and I’m rooting for it harrrrd. At first was a bit pissed to see it here at only 8… and then remembered what happened to Amy Adams last year… the scifi acting bias is real indeed, even when the film is actually about the acting. I’m curious to see how the narrative shakes out.

  • Facebook User

    Margot Robbie over Judi Dench in the top 5, really? Someone has a “hard on” here.

    • Judi Dench’s film has received mixed-to-negative reviews. It’s a non-starter, awards-wise. Robbie’s was the surprise hit of TIFF. Any sane person would place her above Dench.

      • Facebook User

        When it comes to Judi Dench and the Academy, I would have to disagree.

        • Patrick Downing

          I looked up Facebook User on Google, Wikipedia, and IMDb. No one by that name.

    • You’re commenting on every single prediction and criticizing films you likely haven’t seen and I have a “hard on”…come on bruh.

      • Facebook User

        I go to many screenings, months in advance, for films that will be released in the future. As I may have my opinion of the films, I do listen and see what the consensus of the critics are after these screenings.

  • Raghavendra Prasad

    SAOIRSE RONAN HAS BEEN GIVEN A RANKING OF 13 . WHAT IF SAOIRSE RONAN GETS NOMINATED FOR OSCARS

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions (2):

    1.Frances McDormand “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.Annette Bening “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”
    3.Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird”
    4.Judi Dench “Victoria and Abdul”
    5.Sally Hawking (“The Shape of Water” or “Maudie”)

    next in line:

    6.Emma Stone “Battle of the Sexes”
    7.Diane Kruger “In the Fade”
    8.Margot Robbie “I. Tonya”
    9.Meryl Streep “The Post”
    10.Helen Mirren “The Leisure Seeker”

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
    Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
    Meryl Streep – The Post
    Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel

  • Lucas Le Moal

    I want Meryl Streep out !!!!!!!! She did her time ! If she’s nominated again, I will shed so much ! I want Jessica Chastain, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Jennifer Lawrence and Saoirse Ronan !

    • Lamar

      If an actress gives an Oscar worthy performance, they deserve a nomination. Past wins or nominations should not factor into that desicion, especially when thinking objectively.

      • michaeldal65

        She has been over nominated though. She’s never less than great, inarguably, but consider the pointless nods for Music of The Heart, Into the Woods, Julie & Julia, and the ridiculous win for The Iron Lady, a terrible film with a performance more chameleon than award-winning. She was infinitely more interesting in Adaptation, Prada, and her criminally unnominated work in The Hours, Hope Springs, Rendition, and The Manchurian Candidate.

    • “She did her time”

      Is she an ex-con?

  • You have Three Billboards ranked #1 on your Best Picture predictions and Sam Rockwell at #1 in the Best Supporting Actor category, but McDormand ranks only #7 here?

    • Alec Glass

      Yeah, like what??? Clayton, this reminds me an awful lot of when you had Casey, Michelle, and Lonergan at #1 for L. Actor, S. Actress, and O. Screenplay with no best pic nom for Manchester…. you’re categories aren’t adding up here. If they LOVE billboards, or even if it’s just a matter of it being the consensus choice that everyone likes… I mean literally the only CON you have listed for her is that the film is small and may not stand out among bigger ones… but you have it winning best pic sooo…. what is standing in her way exactly that’s giving Kate Winslet and Emma Stone better odds than her..?

    • Emi Grant

      She’s now number 2, happy?

      • No, now I’m unhappy that Stone is ahead of Ronan.

        • Emi Grant

          To be fair, I haven’t watched either performance, so I guess I can’t comment on them.

  • DaKardii

    It’s only been a few days, so anything can happen. But I’m convinced that the fallout from the Weinstein scandal is going to have a major negative effect on any actors or actresses who have received Oscar nominations working for him. For that reason:

    -Meryl Streep stays in the predicted nominees ONLY because she’s in the top 2. Anybody who is not in the top 2 is already at risk of losing their chance if they previously received nominations because of Weinstein.

    -I would move Kate Winslet down to the “Next in Line” category.

    -I would move Judi Dench and Michelle Williams down to the “Other Top Tier Contenders” category.

    -I would move Jennifer Lawrence down to the “Also in Contention” category.

    -I would move Nicole Kidman down to the “Other Possibilities” category.

    -Although she never received a nomination due to Weinstein, the fact that his name is attached to the production company for Wind River likely means that Elizabeth Olsen is off the list completely.

    • Martin Harris

      I believe Meryl and Judi will not be affected by the HW story. These actresses are being applauded for speaking out, not shunned. I’m going with Meryl, Judi, Emma, Frances and Sally for the 5 spots right now.

  • Brooke

    Stone is absolutely OUT. No one will remember that film and Sally Hawkins will take that spot because of the release time.

    And with Wonder Wheel currently at 50%?? I am THISCLOSE to removing Winslet as well.

    • Sentinel666

      Man, I heard that Emma Stone was absolutely great in “Battle of the Sexes”, even better than “La La Land”. One of the strongest contender at this moment.

      Winslet out, definitely.

      • rockfall911

        Winslet, as much as I love her, will probably be out.
        Hawkins will get a nod and I’ll go out on a limb predicting that Saoirse Ronan will definitey be in as well. Stone will probably ride her coattails from last year and will sneak in. But I think this is shaping up to be McDormand’s race to lose. And deservedly so.

        • Sentinel666

          Saoirse and McDormand will be nominated in 99,9%.

      • michaeldal65

        Stone might be a contender but there’s no way she’ll win 2 years in a row.

        • Sentinel666

          She’ll not win, but can be nominated 🙂

          • michaeldal65

            Fair enough but it seems like a such a waste of a slot for someone more worthy. Its the same as Redmayne being nominated for THE DANISH GIRL. He didn’t have a chance and they could’ve let McKellen in for MR. HOLMES or Caine for YOUTH. Always makes for a more interesting race when the contenders are interesting..and worthy.

      • michaeldal65

        Stone might be a contender but there’s no way she’ll win 2 years in a row.

    • Sentinel666

      Man, I heard that Emma Stone was absolutely great in “Battle of the Sexes”, even better than “La La Land”. One of the strongest contender at this moment.

      Winslet out, definitely.

    • Sentinel666

      Man, I heard that Emma Stone was absolutely great in “Battle of the Sexes”, even better than “La La Land”. One of the strongest contender at this moment.

      Winslet out, definitely.

    • michaeldal65

      I think Stone should be left out this time. As well made, if conventional, as the film is, King was a bore and Stone brings virtually nothing to it. Carell walks away with BATTLE.

    • michaeldal65

      I think Stone should be left out this time. As well made, if conventional, as the film is, King was a bore and Stone brings virtually nothing to it. Carell walks away with BATTLE.

  • michaeldal65

    You can remove Kidman, Gadot, Weisz, Theron, and Ridley from the Actress suggestions. Not a chance.

    • Sentinel666

      Agree. I could add Huppert, Hathaway, Moore, Allison Williams, Watson, Olsen, Fonda, Mirren (“The Leissure Seeker” will be realized in 2018) and Lawrence. Not a chance for anyone of them. Brooklyn Prince too, she can be nominated in “supporting actress” more than “leading actress”.

  • michaeldal65

    You can remove Kidman, Gadot, Weisz, Theron, and Ridley from the Actress suggestions. Not a chance.