OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Original Screenplay

Updated: January 13, 2018

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Martin McDonagh
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "In Bruges" and feels very reminiscent of "Fargo."
CONS:
Original Screenplay is competitive and it also helps to be a Best Picture nominee. Can the film achieve both?

2

Greta Gerwig
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
She's said to fit like a glove in the director's chair but screenplay may be a more appropriate place for her to get her nod.
CONS:
Original Screenplay has lots of competition, with lots of comedies trying to make their play.

3

Jordan Peele
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
People love the movie and if there's any category for it get in, Original Screenplay is it (likely WGA nominee).
CONS:
It feels like one of those things that will seem close because of precursors and come up short.

4

Guillermo del Toro
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
An original tale that may have the writers gushing over its story and structure.
CONS:
He did it for "Pan's Labyrinth" but his quality has waned over the years. Can he bounce back?

5

Steven Rogers
“I, Tonya” (NEON)

PROS:
Steven Rogers crafts an impressive piece looking at the life and downfall of an unconventional heroine.
CONS:
This light hearted dramedy may be too light for some voters.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
A big moneymaker that received great reviews all summer long.
CONS:
Comedy biased can plague a film's Oscar chances.

7

Paul Thomas Anderson
“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)

PROS:
If there's any hope for PTA to win an Oscar, a screenplay award seems much more attainable.
CONS:
The late release. And the film is STILL without a title?

8

Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
A film centering around government versus journalism is as timely as anything we've seen lately.
CONS:
The first quarter of the film is a hump that you have to go over. Will the branch recognize its flaws?

9

Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
“The Florida Project” (A24)

PROS:
When critics are heavy on a film, and Oscar can't find much room for it in Best Picture, screenplay becomes a nice consolation prize, especially when the director is attached.
CONS:
The film is rather heavy and depressing. Especially for something marketed as lightweight.

10

Anthony McCarten
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
A favorite of the Academy, McCarten takes on Winston Churchill and its bound to have SOME lovers. Perhaps this year's "King's Speech?"
CONS:
Could it go in the Adapted Screenplay category?

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Christopher Nolan
“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
Even when they pass on Nolan in Director, they often cite him in screenplay.
CONS:
The film has such little dialogue. This category, likely more than anything, will show strength for a Best Picture winner.

12

Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina, Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz
“Coco” (Pixar)

PROS:
Pixar has had success in Original Screenplay ("Inside Out" and "Up").
CONS:
It's a question if "Coco" is something that just sits in Animated Feature, or expands outside of it.

13

Simon Beaufoy
“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Previous winner for "Slumdog Millionaire" has found love afterwards with "127 Hours" and prior to his win with "The Full Monty."
CONS:
Writers have no problem skipping if it isn't up to par (i.e. "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen").

14

Noah Baumbach
“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)

PROS:
Screening at the festivals and it has its lovers. Baumbach seems like one of those future writing winners.
CONS:
Netflix's Oscar campaign will need to be stellar.

15

Mark Boal
“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
The artistic liberties that this winner of "The Hurt Locker" takes is genius at times. He could ride a wave of support.
CONS:
When he's not taking artistic liberties (i.e. the final act), the film seems to fall flat.

16

Taylor Sheridan
“Wind River” (Acacia Entertainment)

PROS:
Fresh of his first nomination in this category for "Hell or High Water." He may become a "default" choice.
CONS:
The writing of women is still problematic and the Elizabeth Olsen is loudly criticized.

17

Edgar Wright
“Baby Driver ” (TriStar Pictures)

PROS:
One of the coolest nominees that we can get in the season in a year where many unconventional things are on the table.
CONS:
An action film in screenplay seems like a long shot and the campaign seems to be focusing on the techs.

18

Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou
“The Killing Of A Sacred Deer” (A24)

PROS:
Recently nominated for "The Lobster" and taking on something seemingly interesting.
CONS:
Allegedly, this is lesser than and not up the Academy's alley.

19

Joon-ho Bong, Jon Ronson
“Okja” (Netflix)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

20

Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Alexander Payne has found love in the screenplay category before. This seemingly original story sounds like something this branch goes for.
CONS:
Payne and Taylor find love in Adapted. Will it be too much of HONEY I SHRUNK MYSELF?

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Dan Gilroy
“Roman J. Israel, Esq.” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Nightcrawler." Premiered at TIFF to solid notices.
CONS:
Critics say the film is a bit weird. Likely not an awards player.

22

Darren Aronofsky
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Aronofsky's writing has given us things like "Requiem for a Dream." It's a terrific, biblical piece.
CONS:
Some people say he overplays his hand and is brow-beating at times trying to make his point.

23

Azazel Jacobs
“The Lovers” (A24)

PROS:
No data found.
CONS:
No data found.

24

Sebastián Lelio, Gonzalo Maza
“A Fantastic Woman” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
The story of a waitress who moonlights as a nightclub manager has garnered raves. With its star Daniela Vega in the running, perhaps a screenplay nod can follow through.
CONS:
The film looks better suited for a Foreign Language play, than anything outside of that category. It'll need a strong precursor showing.

25

William Nicholson
“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)

PROS:
Two-time Oscar-nominated writer of "Gladiator" and "Shadowlands." This could be an easy pick for the British voting bloc.
CONS:
Original is VERY competitive this year. He'll need to show strength early and sustain.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    Coco
    Darkest Hour
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Wonder Wheel

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions:

    1.”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.”Downsizing”
    3.”Lady Bird”
    4.”Phantom Thread”
    5.”Get Out”

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions:

    1.”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.”Downsizing”
    3.”Lady Bird”
    4.”Phantom Thread”
    5.”Get Out”

  • Where’s Detroit?

  • Alfred

    Detroit is a shoe-in! Are u kidding us?

  • Jonathan

    I think “Get Out” could become the new “Straight Outta Compton”, a film which seems to be to cool for the Academy to recognize, but starts to pick up steam and garners a nod in Original Screenplay.

  • Isaac

    Greta Gerwig has to win for Lady bird

  • chrosTV

    Why is ‘The Big Sick’ suddenly only at #10?

  • Jonathan

    “The Post” wins Best Picture but not even recognized in Screenplay?

    • Emi Grant

      The film apparently had re-write, and the first writer (I think) is kind of unknown.

  • Emi Grant

    The Big Sick’s screenplay is getting some nods, it should probably get Top 5

  • John Edward Kilberg

    Get Out is gonna win Best Original Screenplay.

    • Calvin Damon

      That, Three Billboards, and Lady Bird seem to be the top three at the moment. I’m predicting Three Billboards for now, but I could easily see it be Get Out. Lady Bird seems more like a critical favorite that will get nominated in some major categories but win either zero or one in the end (ala Boyhood).

      • John Edward Kilberg

        I agree – Three Billboards

  • DaKardii

    POST CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. The Post
    4. Get Out
    5. The Shape of Water

    6. The Big Sick
    7. Phantom Thread
    8. Darkest Hour
    9. I, Tonya
    10. Dunkirk

  • DaKardii

    POST-GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. The Post
    4. The Shape of Water
    5. Get Out

    6. The Big Sick
    7. Phantom Thread
    8. Darkest Hour
    9. I, Tonya
    10. Dunkirk

  • Michael Eduard Gschwandtner

    Now with the Globes, this race gets a little easier.

    Lady Bird and Three Billboards look stable.

    Then four Screenplays for just three spots.
    The Post and The Shape of Water had and will have a good time with Globes and other televised shows. Get Out seems to be a movie without big Oscar chances but a likely recognition in screenplay. The other one would be The Big Sick, but it is getting very difficult now without any Globe Nominations.

    Leaving Phantom Thread, which previously won the NBR and some critics, though there is no sign yet that the televised shows respond to it.

    For now, I go with Lady Bird, Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, The Post and Get Out.
    Things would get easier if The Post would move to adapted. There is one spot left, it seems (Mudbound, CMBYN, Molly’s Game and The Disaster Artist look solid).

    Any signs that this could happen, like Moonlight last year?

  • TomNewYorker

    My Best Original Screenplay Predictions are

    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

  • DaKardii

    POST-SAG NOMINATIONS PREDICITON

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missour
    3. The Post
    4. The Shape of Water
    5. Get Out

    6. The Big Sick
    7. Phantom Thread
    8. Darkest Hour
    9. I, Tonya
    10. Dunkirk

  • DaKardii

    POST-SAG NOMINATIONS PREDICITON

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missour
    3. The Post
    4. The Shape of Water
    5. Get Out

    6. The Big Sick
    7. Phantom Thread
    8. Darkest Hour
    9. I, Tonya
    10. Dunkirk

  • DaKardii

    NEW YEARS PREDICTION

    DEFINITELY GETTING NOMINATED

    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape Of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    WILD CARDS

    The Big Sick
    Get Out

  • Michael Eduard Gschwandtner

    If The Post won’t score at the Globes, I think it will miss this category.

    Lady Bird, Three Billboards and Get Out will be there. And I am a little surprised you excluded The Shape of Water. I see no signs that it could miss. Did well with precursors, was nominated in all big guilds…

    The last spot would be clear for The Big Sick if they haven’t missed the Globes completely. Still wondering why that happened. If The Big Short misses, I think I, Tonya is the one to choose at the moment.

    • Emi Grant

      I wouldn’t say they missed, the Globes just didn’t like it.

      • Mohamad Hosein Tavakoli

        Emi your comment should be write on walls

        • Emi Grant

          Not really, it’s just a comment

    • Emi Grant

      I wouldn’t say they missed, the Globes just didn’t like it.

  • Valentín

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. The Big Sick
    4. I, Tonya
    5. The Shape of Water

    6. Get Out
    7. The Post
    8. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
    9. Phantom Thread
    10. Darkest Hour

  • DaKardii

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    -Get Out
    -Lady Bird
    -The Post
    -The Shape Of Water
    -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

  • Final prediction:

    The Big Sick
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    • Kyle Horton

      get out is getting a nomination

  • Jared

    Should be: Lady bird, three billboards, florida project, i tonya, shape of water
    Will be: Lady bird, three billboards, shape of water, big sick, get out