OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Supporting Actor

Updated: November 20, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Sam Rockwell
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Has been long ignored despite outstanding roles in films like "Moon" and "Seven Psychopaths." Early word is very positive.
CONS:
It always looks like it's about to happen for him (i.e. "Conviction") but then he comes up empty.

2

Willem Dafoe
“The Florida Project” (A24)

PROS:
Veteran actor and two-time nominee ("Platoon" and "Shadow of the Vampire") that has always felt like "that guy" that will one day win an Oscar. Reviews are singling him out and this could be his year.
CONS:
Does the film have legs in other categories? With an expanded lineup, it's hard for an acting winner to be the only nod for their movie (last was Christopher Plummer in "Beginners").

3

Armie Hammer
“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Got career best reviews out of Sundance. Said to be a clear no-brainer.
CONS:
Michael Stuhlbarg. He received just as good, if not better notices.

4

Woody Harrelson
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Has had a terrific year with strong turns in "The Glass Castle," "War for the Planet of the Apes," and this. He may be able to rally support for one of them. Why not the Best Picture frontrunner?
CONS:
Sam Rockwell is going to eat up a lot of the votes. They haven't double dipped for men since "Bugsy."

5

Richard Jenkins
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "The Visitor" is receiving standout notices.
CONS:
Michael Shannon.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Mark Rylance
“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
Previous winner of "Bridge of Spies" that delivers another standout performance.
CONS:
Screen time is a little thin. They may be more on the "technical" side of the film and not so much the performances.

7

Bryan Cranston
“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Former nominee of "Trumbo" who is rumored to have a strong performance.
CONS:
Internal competition.

8

Jason Mitchell
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
Everyone discovered his talents in "Straight Outta Compton," a performance that many feel should have got him a nomination. Early word from Sundance was very positive.
CONS:
Internal competition.

9

Michael Shannon
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Has defied odds twice for sneak into the Supporting Actor lineup ("Revolutionary Road" and "Nocturnal Animals"). He feels like one of "those guys" that will win one day. Early word suggests it could be his year.
CONS:
Richard Jenkins and splitting votes.

10

Michael Stuhlbarg
“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Received outstanding praise from Sundance. Snubbed for 'A Serious Man.' Has his time finally arrived?
CONS:
Armie Hammer and splitting votes.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Stephen Dillane
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Has been a constant grace for years ("The Hours" and "Game of Thrones"). His work opposite Gary Oldman seems to be one of the few things that measures up.
CONS:
Lots of internal competition. Will he be cited enough?

12

Will Poulter
“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
Will Poulter's villainous turn is as magnetic as it is diabolical. It's one of the best things to come out of the summer.
CONS:
Being "too evil" can cost an actor. Internal competition.

13

Garrett Hedlund
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has been terrific in performances such as "On the Road" and "Unbroken." He had his admirers out of Sundance.
CONS:
The buzz seems to be surrounding Jason Mitchell at the moment.

14

Patrick Stewart
“Logan” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
A veteran actor that received his fair share of love from the first half. The campaign will make an effort for him in an open supporting actor field.
CONS:
Genre bias and he's never really been in the hunt before.

15

Ben Mendelsohn
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Emmy winner for "Bloodline" is received outstanding notices for his work as King George VI. Oldman's work can easily pull him in.
CONS:
Will Gary Oldman suck the air out of the room for any other person getting nominated?

16

Steve Carell
“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Provided two different, dynamic performances this year with this and "Last Flag Flying." If his Lead Actor run proves to be too difficult, he can ride in alongside Emma Stone.
CONS:
He's great in "Last Flag Flying" but there's a consensus that he seems to over do it a bit in "Sexes."

17

Christoph Waltz
“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
2-time Oscar winner ("Inglourious Basterds" and "Django Unchained") who received strong praise out Venice...
CONS:
...but Telluride was a bit more muted and colder on the film. He needs the film to be a bigger player.

18

Ray Romano
“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
As the lovable and funny father, Ray Romano impresses in his finest film performance yet. There's a drum beating for him.
CONS:
Indie Spirit could bite but outside of that, it seems like a huge hurdle to jump.

19

Tracy Letts
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
As the lovable and funny father, Ray Romano impresses in his finest film performance yet. There's a drum beating for him.
CONS:
Indie Spirit could bite but outside of that, it seems like a huge hurdle to jump.

20

Donald Sutherland
“The Leisure Seeker” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Despite an outstanding career, he's never been nominated. The reviews for him are great. Honorary Oscar winner this year.
CONS:
The film's buzz is low and it may get the 2018 push back.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Christopher Plummer
“All the Money in the World” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
Replaced Kevin Spacey following his sexual assault allegations. Former Oscar-winner may be able to bring some attention to the film, sending a signal to all sexual predators out there.
CONS:
It's ambitious to film for one week, and still attempt to make their December release. Maybe the film is already a loss to Sony Pictures.

22

Laurence Fishburne
“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
One-time nominee for "What's Love Got to Do With It?" Could he make his way back after 24 years?
CONS:
Could be all about his co-stars. He'll need to stand out.

23

Idris Elba
“Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)

PROS:
Has a huge snub lingering over him ("Beasts of No Nation") and will likely get his due next time he's anywhere half good.
CONS:
How much screen time will he have?

24

John Boyega
“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)

PROS:
The "Star Wars" star showed his acting chops as a conflicted security officer. They'll be going for this one.
CONS:
Internal competition from co-stars.

25

Mark Hamill
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
Sylvester Stallone taught us that ANYTHING is possible, even decades later.
CONS:
Sci-fi acting nominees are large hurdles by themselves, let alone for a performance that's never been shown Oscar love before.

26

Tom Hardy
“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "The Revenant" and lots praised him for his subtle, nuanced performance.
CONS:
Though he gets the job done, he essentially

27

Javier Bardem
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Oscar-winner for "No Country for Old Men." Is layered with lots
CONS:
May have another film later this year where he plays Pablo Picasso. This also could be about the ladies.

28

Woody Harrelson
“The Glass Castle” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Is best-in-show as an alcoholic father in Destin Cretton's film about a dysfunctional family. Is also great in "War for the Planet of the Apes" and "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri."
CONS:
He probably needed the film to do better. He'll need a resurrection from the critics awards.

29

Ed Harris
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Four-time nominee who hasn't been back since "The Hours." Is it time to give him his long overdue statue?
CONS:
His screen time is minimal.

30

Harrison Ford
“Blade Runner 2049” (Warner Bros.)

PROS:
As seen with Sylvester Stallone's nomination for "Creed," nostalgia can wear on the Academy's mind when filling out an Oscar ballot. Ford could be the next beneficiary.
CONS:
Has such little screen time and isn't well equipped to pull off the big emotional scene in the end.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

31

Dustin Hoffman
“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)

PROS:
Two-time Academy Award Winner ("Kramer vs. Kramer" and "Rain Man") who is said to deliver a return to form performance. Can he get a welcome back nomination?
CONS:
Large cast and there could be some internal competition.

32

Colin Farrell
“Roman Israel, Esq.” (Sony Pictures)

PROS:
With a year that has also included "The Beguiled," he's overdue for an Oscar nom.
CONS:
The critics awards need to make that known.

33

Wes Studi
“Hostiles” (Entertainment Studios)

PROS:
Wildcard nominee that gets pulled in with Christian Bale?
CONS:
Film needs to be seen by the right people and it's with a new studio.

34

Jake Gyllenhaal
“Okja” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has been struggling to get his second nomination after "Brokeback Mountain" and was a bright spot of the first half of the year.
CONS:
He'll likely pull all the votes for himself in "Stronger."

35

Ben Stiller
“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has had standout performances before in ensemble pieces ("The Royal Tenenbaums"). Early word was positive.
CONS:
Dustin Hoffman.

36

Robert Pattinson
“The Lost City of Z” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Had a great year with this and "Good Time." Can he rally support for something?
CONS:
The film's buzz is quiet. Maybe next time.

37

Adam Driver
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
Had a great year with this and "Good Time." Can he rally support for something?
CONS:
The film's buzz is quiet. Maybe next time.

38

Josh Gad
“Marshall” (Open Road Films)

PROS:
Early word says he's a standout of the film.
CONS:
The film's buzz is mighty quiet. Sterling K. Brown will also steal votes.

39

Daniel Craig
“Logan Lucky” (Bleecker Street)

PROS:
His brief turn as the jailhouse resident with a twang of gold is one of the memorable highlights of a sad summer for movie-goers.
CONS:
Globes could bite, but other groups will likely find other "toys" to cite.

40

Zac Efron
“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
Because you never know who can get nominated from a musical.
CONS:
We'll see how good he is (or isn't?).

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

  • Rapid Readers

    You should include Jared Leto for Blade Runner 2049. Just saw the “Nexus Dawn” short, and he pretty much, dominated the scene.

  • Reece

    “It” is a critical and box office hit. I think Bill Skarsgard could be a contender if campaigned hard enough

    • Calvin Damon

      Assumed box office hit. It hasn’t even come out yet lol

      • Reece

        That you are right, but early forecasts shows it shattering records for Horror and September box office.

  • Stein-Erik Rutledal

    Ben Mendelsohn did not replace John Hurt. Hurt was supposed to play Neville Chamberlain, Mendelsohn is playing King George VI.

    • We’ve been having issues with the website cache not dumping properly. If you are seeing outdated information, please clear your cache as well.

  • mads

    Sam Rockwell is placed at no. 3 and 25 – and with the same film!

  • Sentinel666

    What is James Franco doing here? He plays the leading role in “The Disaster Artist”!

  • Facebook User

    Ed, Ray and Woody 27, 28, 29, what’s with the mistakes???????? Does anyone read what’s posted?? 31, 32, 33, Punch Drunk Love???? Wow, this site is a mess.

  • Baggins

    no Peter Dinklage?

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions:

    1.Willem Dafoe “The Florida Project”
    2.Sam Rockwell “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    3.Michael Stuhlbarg “Call Me By Your Name”
    4.Michael Shannon “The Shape of Water”
    5.Mark Rylance “Dunkirk”

    next in line:

    6.Laurence Fishbourne “Last Flag Flying”
    7.Colin Farrell “Roman Israel, esq”
    8.Armie Hammer “Call Me By Your Name”
    9.Kevin Spacey “All the Money in the World”
    10.Ben Mendelsohn “Darkest Hour”

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer – Call Me by your Name
    Ben Menelsohn – Darkest Hour
    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

  • Lucas Le Moal

    My favorites : Willem Dafoe, Armie Hammer, Sam Rockwell, John Boyega, Garrett Hedlund

  • Bruce Caudill

    I am praying and praying that Harrison Ford gets nominated for blade runner 2049

  • DaKardii

    It’s only been a few days, so anything can happen. But I’m convinced that the fallout from the Weinstein scandal is going to have a major negative effect on any actors or actresses who have either received Oscar nominations working for him, or are currently working on projects produced by his company. For that reason:

    -I would move Michael Shannon and Christoph Waltz down to the “Other Top Tier Contenders” category.

  • DaKardii

    Michael Shannon’s chances just dramatically improved. “The Current War” has been pushed back to 2018 due to the chaos at TWC caused by Harvey’s scandal. Now Shannon has only one film to push.

    • Sentinel666

      Well, Michael Shannon played in the really strong movie, so his changes are big. Not for “The Current War”, but “The Shape of Water” can bring him nomination.

      • Brooke

        Exactly. TSOW?? His role chews every scene. Which is exactly why I would nominate Richard Jenkins instead.

      • Brooke

        Exactly. TSOW?? His role chews every scene. Which is exactly why I would nominate Richard Jenkins instead.

      • Brooke

        Exactly. TSOW?? His role chews every scene. Which is exactly why I would nominate Richard Jenkins instead.

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    I could be totally off-base with this but I hope you consider it. I think Armie Hammer’s performance in Call Me by Your Name is too invisible – there’s no transformation, and it’s not as categorizable as a veteran performance or a villain performance. The film also doesn’t afford him much interiority or scenes of high/breaking emotion. Since Hammer’s career isn’t particularly established, and there’s not much of a gimmick or archetype to his character for voters to latch onto, I think he’ll go the way of other solid but invisible performances in recent years like Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips (losing out to a showy Christian Bale), Amy Adams in Arrival (losing out to more showy performances like those of Meryl Streep, Isabelle Huppert, and Natalie Portman), Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins (missing out in favour of more emotional or categorizable performances from Dev Patel, Michael Shannon, and Lucas Hedges), or John Hawkes in The Sessions (losing out on buzz to Denzel Washington, and Bradley Cooper).

    I believe Oscars will gravitate towards the veteran father-figure with a scene over the unestablished younger man with a solid but subtle and non-transformative performance 9 times out of 10. So I think Michael Stuhlbarg gets in instead of Armie Hammer. But to each their own.

    • Emi Grant

      I mean, I’d agree with you, but Casey Affleck won last year so I wouldn’t totally count it out.

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    I could be totally off-base with this but I hope you consider it. I think Armie Hammer’s performance in Call Me by Your Name is too invisible – there’s no transformation, and it’s not as categorizable as a veteran performance or a villain performance. The film also doesn’t afford him much interiority or scenes of high/breaking emotion. Since Hammer’s career isn’t particularly established, and there’s not much of a gimmick or archetype to his character for voters to latch onto, I think he’ll go the way of other solid but invisible performances in recent years like Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips (losing out to a showy Christian Bale), Amy Adams in Arrival (losing out to more showy performances like those of Meryl Streep, Isabelle Huppert, and Natalie Portman), Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins (missing out in favour of more emotional or categorizable performances from Dev Patel, Michael Shannon, and Lucas Hedges), or John Hawkes in The Sessions (losing out on buzz to Denzel Washington, and Bradley Cooper).

    I believe Oscars will gravitate towards the veteran father-figure with a scene over the unestablished younger man with a solid but subtle and non-transformative performance 9 times out of 10. So I think Michael Stuhlbarg gets in instead of Armie Hammer. But to each their own.

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    I could be totally off-base with this but I hope you consider it. I think Armie Hammer’s performance in Call Me by Your Name is too invisible – there’s no transformation, and it’s not as categorizable as a veteran performance or a villain performance. The film also doesn’t afford him much interiority or scenes of high/breaking emotion. Since Hammer’s career isn’t particularly established, and there’s not much of a gimmick or archetype to his character for voters to latch onto, I think he’ll go the way of other solid but invisible performances in recent years like Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips (losing out to a showy Christian Bale), Amy Adams in Arrival (losing out to more showy performances like those of Meryl Streep, Isabelle Huppert, and Natalie Portman), Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins (missing out in favour of more emotional or categorizable performances from Dev Patel, Michael Shannon, and Lucas Hedges), or John Hawkes in The Sessions (losing out on buzz to Denzel Washington, and Bradley Cooper).

    I believe Oscars will gravitate towards the veteran father-figure with a scene over the unestablished younger man with a solid but subtle and non-transformative performance 9 times out of 10. So I think Michael Stuhlbarg gets in instead of Armie Hammer. But to each their own.

  • Sentinel666

    You can remove Tom Hardy, Lucas Hedges, Ben Stiller, Dustin Hoffman, Justin Timberlake, Ed Harris, Zac Efron, Laurence Fisbourne and John Boyega. There’s no minimal chances for them.

  • Tee

    I think it’s funny the very set you finally take away Jason Mitchell is the set I decide to put him in.

    1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    2. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
    3. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    4. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
    5. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound
    6. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour
    7. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water
    8. Christoph Waltz – Downsizing
    9. Michael Stulhburg – Call Me By Your Name
    10. Steve Carrell – Battle of the Sexes

  • Baggins

    My choices as of right now in alphabetical order

    Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer – Call Me by your Name
    Mark Rylance – Dunkirk
    Christoph Waltz – Downsizing

  • John

    Well I think you can remove Kevin Spacey.

    • Alan

      Came here to say this.

  • Demetra

    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name
    Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

  • John

    Well now you have to remove Kevin Spacey, he has been recast.

  • DaKardii

    Ridley Scott is re-shooting Kevin Spacey’s scenes in “All the Money in the World” with one month before release… and is keeping the release date.

    This film just became the biggest film of the year. If Plummer succeeds in doing good repair work to this film, he just may well become a surprise nominee, if not a surprise winner.

  • TomNewYorker

    either tho I haven’t seen the film(yet, seeing it next week).

    I hope to god Sam Rockwell wins, just cause he’s 1 of my favorite Actors and I really want him to have a Oscar.

  • Tee

    I’m getting a very “Hell or High Water” feeling here, especially since there isn’t a real contender and unlike then, both Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson are overdue for a nod and win respectively. Having not seen the film yet, I won’t wager on who of the two is better. The thing I see is this; if Woody Harrelson manages to get into the five with or without Rockwell, he WILL win. He becomes the frontrunner, that simple. It really does depend on whether or not Rockwell makes it or Harrelson joins him.

    Another interesting thing about this category is Christopher Plummer- if he’s even just in the upper echelon of fine, he gets a nod. If he’s good, he’s a contender for the win.

    1. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
    4. Michael Stuhllbarg – Call Me By Your Name
    5. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound

    6. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
    7. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
    8. Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying
    9. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
    10. Will Poulter – Detroit

  • Jonathan

    I wouldn’t underestimate Ben Mendelsohn (“Darkest Hour”) – he received very good praise and could easily be carried in alongside Oldman and the film itself. He could go the Jonah Hill (“Wolf of Wall Street”) / Tom Hardy (“The Revenant”) route to the nomination.

  • Fabio Ruiz

    Mark Rylance’s and Richard Jenkin’s performances deserve nominations.

  • Alan

    Patrick Stewart deserves a nomination.

  • DaKardii

    THANKSGIVING PREDICTION

    1. Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
    2. Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)
    3. Armie Hammer (“Call Me By Your Name”)
    4. Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
    5. Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”)

    6. Mark Rylance (“Dunkirk”)
    7. Bryan Cranston (“Last Flag Flying”)
    8. Jason Mitchell (“Mudbound”)
    9. Michael Shannon (“The Shape of Water”)
    10. Michael Stuhlbarg (“Call Me By Your Name”)