OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Supporting Actress

Updated: January 13, 2018

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Allison Janney
“I, Tonya” (NEON)

PROS:
Received stellar praise out of TIFF and is said to be a threat for her first Oscar.
CONS:
TV actresses can be passed over sometimes (i.e. Felicity Huffman) for someone "more due."

2

Laurie Metcalf
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
A treasure of television and film, Laurie Metcalf is said to have one of her best roles yet in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut.
CONS:
Is there room for two TV actresses in an Oscar lineup (other being Allison Janney)? She needs a big push from A24.

3

Mary J. Blige
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
The reviews out of Sundance were really good for her. Can this Grammy winner turn into an Oscar winner?
CONS:
As is the case with "Mudbound," there seems to be a variety of choices for them to choose from.

4

Holly Hunter
“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Academy Award winner for "The Piano" is memorable in her role as mother, with more going on than just a daughter in a coma.
CONS:
Can she hop over some of the more "buzzier" films?

5

Octavia Spencer
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Fresh off her nomination for "Hidden Figures," this Oscar-winner for "The Help" is ALWAYS good.
CONS:
She's very funny and serves as the comic relief but can she become our new "default" choice for Oscar?

NEXT IN LINE

6

Hong Chau
“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice all cited her. She's the film's standout and the one forgivable thing about a very uneven story.
CONS:
People REALLY don't like the movie. It'll be weird to see her survive the slaughter.

7

Lesley Manville
“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)

PROS:
The snub for "Another Year" is still lingering. Is her role large enough?
CONS:
DDL can suck the air out of the room. Could be all about him.

8

Melissa Leo
“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Oscar-winner of "The Fighter" delivers her finest performance yet in this candid and thought-provoking piece on nuns in the Catholic church.
CONS:
She is a previous winner and early rumors say she may be opting for a lead campaign.

9

Tiffany Haddish
“Girls Trip” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
A highlight of the year that has very vocal admirers. Will Universal give her a proper push?
CONS:
"Girls Trip" as an awards contender? Is it the next "Bridesmaids?" Tough sell.

10

Kristin Scott Thomas
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
How has she only had one nomination over her career? The trailer showed promise. Will she finally be able to get that long overdue second nod?
CONS:
This can easily becomes the Gary Oldman show and leave her with nothing.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Julia Roberts
“Wonder” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
An Oscar favorite who really delivers with the right material.
CONS:
Isn't this just "Mask" and that didn't exactly do well with Oscar.

12

Lois Smith
“Marjorie Prime” (FilmRise)

PROS:
A veteran actress that is already beginning to get a strong push. Could she overcome the film's smaller release platform?
CONS:
Think back to films like "Compliance" or "I'll See You In My Dreams" as films that tried and came up short in acting.

13

Tatiana Maslany
“Stronger” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Emmy winner ("Orphan Black") playing the supportive girlfriend of a disabled person, an Oscar favorite.
CONS:
She'll need to ride in with Gyllenhaal and the critics need to come to her aid.

14

Rosamund Pike
“Hostiles” (Entertainment Studios)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Gone Girl," who is said to hold her own in Scott Cooper's western.
CONS:
Film needs to be seen by the right people and it's with a new studio.

15

Bria Vinaite
“The Florida Project” (A24)

PROS:
She actually quietly (yet loudly) delivers the best performance in the film as a young mother doing anything to make ends meet.
CONS:
The story is surrounded around Willem Dafoe and Brooklynn Prince. The critics will need to make a statement for her to make it.

16

Julianne Moore
“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Some of her best work was partnered with Todd Haynes ("Far from Heaven" and "Safe"). The previous winner of "Still Alice" likely has one more nomination left in her.
CONS:
The film doesn't feel like it's quite "catching" on. It'll need the critics to pull Julianne Moore through.

17

Claire Foy
“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)

PROS:
Enjoying the love for her work on Netflix's "The Crown" and the early word is that she'll campaign here which increases her chances significantly.
CONS:
Can she hop above some of those bigger names? She'll need the major televised shows to notice (BFCA, Globe, SAG, BAFTA).

18

Kirsten Dunst
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Over 20 years since her breakout in "Interview with the Vampire" was passed over. Since then, "Melancholia" and others have gone unnoticed. Her work in "The Beguiled" is a great way to finally reward her.
CONS:
She'll need the help of the critics.

19

Carey Mulligan
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has been aching to get her second nomination following "An Education," with snubs for such films as "Shame" and "Inside Llewyn Davis."
CONS:
Mary J. Blige.

20

Michelle Pfeiffer
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
3-time nominee who is hypnotizing in her small amount of screen time.
CONS:
She becomes an after thought after the graphic, brutal nature of the film.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Cicely Tyson
“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Former Oscar-nominee for "Sounder" in 1973, the veteran actress has stayed relevant and just as impressive in her work in film and television. Could she go the Ruby Dee route this year?
CONS:
How much screen time does she have? Will it be all about the boys.

22

Carrie Fisher
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
The tragic passing of Carrie Fisher has many standing by and waiting to say farewell to our princess. Can she go the way of a Heath Ledger?
CONS:
She's never been in play for an Oscar before, even after countless times she was good over the years. What would change that?

23

Catherine Keener
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
Previous nominee of "Being John Malkovich" and "Capote" who is very good as a deceiving hypnotist.
CONS:
They would have to REALLY love the movie for acting to come in.

24

Elle Fanning
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
If we are assessing quality, Fanning's work may be one of the best of the first half of the year. Will they bite for this?
CONS:
Kirsten Dunst.

25

Dafne Keen
“Logan” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
As the ruthless offspring of Logan, Dafne Keen holds her own against the Oscar-nominated star. She also is in the pivotal scene that got the "man tears" going.
CONS:
Voters can have problems with child killers. She destroys her enemies in a way that can make you shutter.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

| ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |

  • michaeldal65

    Curious Julianne Moore isn’t higher on your predictions. Just saw Wonderstruck. That scene in the bookshop is enough to put her over..

  • Christian Palmer

    Interesting that you have Leo in Supporting and not Lead- I have her in the latter because she’s the film’s biggest name and she simply looks like the lead from the trailer.

    • Gold Derby, Awards Daily and The Film Experience also have her in supporting.

    • I’ve seen the film and she is undoubtedly supporting. A lead run would be foolish, and likely cost her the nomination.

  • Luke McGowan

    Man I wish you’d proof read these before publication, there’s data missing, names wrong, sections that have been copied without changing. I know you’re busy but surely an Oscar Prediction site should have its Oscar predictions as the highest priority to everything else. I think its been since mid 2014 that the Oscar predictions have been updated regularly and cleanly too.

    • We’ve been having issues with the website cache not dumping properly. If you are seeing outdated information, please clear your cache as well. Thank you.

      • Luke McGowan

        Thanks for the reply Clayton and apologies if I came across as rude.

  • Not sure why you’re dismissing Allison Janney as just a “TV actress”.

    Janney has been playing memorable bit parts in important films for well two decades. You should check her out in The Ice Storm, American Beauty, The Hours, Juno, Margaret and The Help.

    • michaeldal65

      She should’ve been nominated for The Way, Way Back…

    • Patrick Downing

      He is implying Academy will dismiss her as a TV actress, despite J K Simmons. Tony winner Laurie Metcalfe should a Broadway star. Claire Foy, Sarah Paulson, Carrie Coon, and Tatiana Maslany have given TV performances better thanmovie performances. I think he is wrong considering that numerous oscar winners had Emmy nominations.

  • Facebook User

    Are these postings proofread?? You have all of Katherine Keener’s credits under Emma Thompson and Miranda Richardson. What’s that about?

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Melissa Leo – Novitiate
    Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour
    Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman

  • Lucas Le Moal

    My favorites : Elle Fanning, Julianne Moore, Michelle Pfeiffer, Octavia Spencer, Mary J. Blige

  • DaKardii

    It’s only been a few days, so anything can happen. But I’m convinced that the fallout from the Weinstein scandal is going to have a major negative effect on any actors or actresses who have either received Oscar nominations working for him, or are currently working on projects produced by his company. For that reason:

    -Melissa Leo stays in the “Predicted Nominees” category ONLY because she’s in the top 2. Anybody who’s not in the top 2 is already in danger of losing the race.

    -I would move Kristin Scott Thomas down to the “Next in Line” category.

    -I would move Michelle Williams down to the “Other Top Tier Contenders” category.

    -I would move Julia Roberts down to the “Other Possibilities” category.

    -I would remove Katherine Waterston, Penelope Cruz, and Judi Dench from the list completely.

  • God

    Mary J. Blige is a STRONG contender and Vogue just published an article today about her Oscar buzz.

  • Baggins

    my choices as of right now in alphabetical order

    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime
    Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour
    Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman

  • John

    I currently have Leo missing, because is it just me, or has Novitiate lost a lot of steam during these film festivals?

  • Demetra

    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water
    Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour

  • John

    No, just no, on Metcalf winning.

    • Isaac

      Yess, she’s amazing

  • Fabio Ruiz

    Octavia Spencer should be in the Predicted Nominee list.

  • DaKardii

    THANKSGIVING PREDICTION

    1. Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)
    2. Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)
    3. Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”)
    4. Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)
    5. Hong Chau (“Downsizing”)

    6. Kristin Scott Thomas (“Darkest Hour”)
    7. Claire Foy (“Breathe”)
    8. Melissa Leo (“Novitiate”)
    9. Tiffany Haddish (“Girls Trip”)
    10. Tatiana Maslany (“Stronger”)

  • Oh now I’m torn between Janney and Blige. Two truly great performances.

  • Fabio Ruiz

    1 – Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
    2 – Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    3 – Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    4 – Melissa Leo – Noviate
    5 – Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour

  • Emi Grant

    I don’t mean to sound like an a**hole, but what is it about Mary J. Blige’s performance that everyone loved? She was fine but wasn’t as great as her co-stars.

    • Calvin Damon

      I agree with you wholeheartedly. She just always seems like an afterthought. Someone in the background to support the greater performances around her. I often struggle to remember anything she did in the movie at times honestly

      • davy209 .

        I agree, the heart of the movie was Garrett Hedlund and Jason Mitchell. It’s a shame they’re not getting the praise they deserve.

  • DaKardii

    POST CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
    2. Allison Janney — I, Tonya
    3. Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
    4. Tiffany Haddish — Girls Trip
    5. Octavia Spencer — The Shape of Water

    6. Hong Chau — Downsizing
    7. Holly Hunter — The Big Sick
    8. Lesley Manville — Phantom Thread
    9. Melissa Leo — Novitiate
    10. Lois Smith — Majorie Prime

  • DaKardii

    POST-GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    4. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
    5. Hong Chau – Downsizing

    6. Tiffany Haddish – Girl’s Trip
    7. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
    8. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
    9. Melissa Leo – Novitiate
    10. Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour

  • Emi Grant

    I think that with the GG and SAG nod, Holly Hunter is definetely making it. I’m saying Blige, Chau, Hunter, Janney and Metcalf get in.

  • TomNewYorker

    My Best Supporting Actress Predictions are

    Allison Janney-I, Tonya
    Hong Chau-Downsizing
    Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
    Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

    Mary J. Blige could slip in of course.

  • DaKardii

    POST-SAG NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

    1. Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird
    2. Allison Janney- I, Tonya
    3. Mary J. Blige- Mudbound
    4. Hong Chau- Downsizing
    5. Holly Hunter- The Big Sick

    6. Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water
    7. Tiffany Haddish- Girl’s Trip
    8. Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread
    9. Melissa Leo- Novitiate
    10. Kristin Scott Thomas- Darkest Hour

  • Reece

    Easy category

    Safe for noms:
    1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    3. Hong Chau – Downsizing (weak film, may pull her down)
    4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (still don’t know why she’s landing everywhere, I felt her to be insignificant in the film)

    Fighting for last spots:
    5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick (close with #6)
    6. Octavia Spencer – Shape of Water (close with #5)
    7. Tiffany Haddish – Girl’s Trip (hasn’t appeared anywhere, but there’s always a surprise in the supporting categories)

  • DaKardii

    NEW YEARS PREDICTIONS

    DEFINITELY GETTING NOMINATED

    Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

    WILD CARDS

    Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
    Octavia Spencer – The Shape Of Water

  • This category is so thin outside of Metcalf and Janney that there’s a lot of room for surprises here. I can see Haddish, Maslany or even Betty Gabriel showing up if Get Out gets enough support.

    • Emi Grant

      I’m pretty sure that won’t likely be the case, it seems pretty locked down between Blige, Chau, Janney, Metcalf and either Hunter or Spencer (hopefully Hunter).

      • You could very well be right and those could be the final 5, but I think Chau, Spencer, Blige and Hunter are far from locked. Nobody likes Downsizing, Spencer is not the first one you think of when you think TSOW, Mudbound is losing steam and the Big Sick feels like screenplay nominee only. All of them are in danger of being snubbed in favor of a surprise nominee that comes out of nowhere.

        • Emi Grant

          I agree with you on Spencer and Blige (especialy her since I have no idea of why she’s getting so many nods for a film where she’s irrelevant to the plot), but with The Big Sick making Ensemble cast and Hunter getting in SAG, I feel confident about her.

          • With the recent developments of the race, Hunter and Spencer are looking stronger. The fifth spot is still looking vulnerable to me though, but Blige is being campaigned hard. I hope Betty Gabriel can still crack the line up.

  • Reece

    So excited for when Tiffany Haddish rightfully doesn’t get nominated and Jada Pinkett Smith starts a social outrage on twitter :

  • michaeldal65

    Catherine Keener should be nominated for Get Out. Great work.

  • ian

    A24 needs to do a better jon with Florida Project. Bria Vainate was fantastic and should at least be garnering some fringe buzz for BSA.

  • Valentín

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
    2. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
    3. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
    4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
    5. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

    6. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
    7. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
    8. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
    9. Elle Fanning (The Beguiled)
    10. Julia Roberts (Wonder)

    • Paul

      Those are my five as well, but I’m really tempted to switch from Blige to Scott Thomas, mainly because of her BAFTA nomination right in the last days of Oscar voting, but also because of the fact that Gary Oldman might need another major nomination for Darkest Hour in order to further solidify his status as the frontrunner (assuming it doesn’t make it in Picture, Director and Screenplay).

    • Paul

      Those are my five as well, but I’m really tempted to switch from Blige to Scott Thomas, mainly because of her BAFTA nomination right in the last days of Oscar voting, but also because of the fact that Gary Oldman might need another major nomination for Darkest Hour in order to further solidify his status as the frontrunner (assuming it doesn’t make it in Picture, Director and Screenplay).

  • DaKardii

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    -Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    -Hong Chau – Downsizing
    -Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    -Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    -Octavia Spencer – The Shape Of Water

  • Final Predictions:

    Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
    Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
    Allison Janney, I, Tonya
    Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water