OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Supporting Actress

Updated: October 23, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

Melissa Leo
“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PROS:
Oscar-winner of "The Fighter" delivers her finest performance yet in this candid and thought-provoking piece on nuns in the Catholic church.
CONS:
She is a previous winner and early rumors say she may be opting for a lead campaign.

2

Allison Janney
“I, Tonya” (NEON)

PROS:
Received stellar praise out of TIFF and is said to be a threat for her first Oscar.
CONS:
TV actresses can be passed over sometimes (i.e. Felicity Huffman) for someone "more due."

3

Kristin Scott Thomas
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

PROS:
How has she only had one nomination over her career? The trailer showed promise. Will she finally be able to get that long overdue second nod?
CONS:
This can easily becomes the Gary Oldman show and leave her with nothing.

4

Hong Chau
“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
She's a huge standout in the film, checking off all the Oscar boxes. She could be the film's representation.
CONS:
The film's praise is not consistent (though she is). Will she be able to survive if the film does not?

5

Laurie Metcalf
“Lady Bird” (A24)

PROS:
A treasure of television and film, Laurie Metcalf is said to have one of her best roles yet in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut.
CONS:
Is there room for two TV actresses in an Oscar lineup (other being Allison Janney)? She needs a big push from A24.

NEXT IN LINE

6

Claire Foy
“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)

PROS:
Enjoying the love for her work on Netflix's "The Crown" and the early word is that she'll campaign here which increases her chances significantly.
CONS:
Can she hop above some of those bigger names? She'll need the major televised shows to notice (BFCA, Globe, SAG, BAFTA).

7

Mary J. Blige
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
The reviews out of Sundance were really good for her. Can this Grammy winner turn into an Oscar winner?
CONS:
As is the case with "Mudbound," there seems to be a variety of choices for them to choose from.

8

Octavia Spencer
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
Fresh off her nomination for "Hidden Figures," this Oscar-winner for "The Help" is ALWAYS good.
CONS:
How much screen time will she have?

9

Holly Hunter
“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Academy Award winner for "The Piano" is memorable in her role as mother, with more going on than just a daughter in a coma.
CONS:
Can she hop over some of the more "buzzier" films?

10

Lois Smith
“Marjorie Prime” (FilmRise)

PROS:
A veteran actress that is already beginning to get a strong push. Could she overcome the film's smaller release platform?
CONS:
Think back to films like "Compliance" or "I'll See You In My Dreams" as films that tried and came up short in acting.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

11

Carey Mulligan
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

PROS:
Has been aching to get her second nomination following "An Education," with snubs for such films as "Shame" and "Inside Llewyn Davis."
CONS:
Mary J. Blige.

12

Tatiana Maslany
“Stronger” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Emmy winner ("Orphan Black") playing the supportive girlfriend of a disabled person, an Oscar favorite.
CONS:
She'll need to ride in with Gyllenhaal and the critics need to come to her aid.

13

Michelle Pfeiffer
“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)

PROS:
3-time nominee who is hypnotizing in her small amount of screen time.
CONS:
She becomes an after thought after the graphic, brutal nature of the film.

14

Michelle Williams
“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
Four-time nominee playing the supportive wife.
CONS:
How much screen time will she have?

15

Julianne Moore
“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Some of her best work was partnered with Todd Haynes ("Far from Heaven" and "Safe"). The previous winner of "Still Alice" likely has one more nomination left in her.
CONS:
The film doesn't feel like it's quite "catching" on. It'll need the critics to pull Julianne Moore through.

16

Kirsten Dunst
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
Over 20 years since her breakout in "Interview with the Vampire" was passed over. Since then, "Melancholia" and others have gone unnoticed. Her work in "The Beguiled" is a great way to finally reward her.
CONS:
She'll need the help of the critics.

17

Julia Roberts
“Wonder” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
An Oscar favorite who really delivers with the right material.
CONS:
Isn't this just "Mask" and that didn't exactly do well with Oscar.

18

Cicely Tyson
“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Former Oscar-nominee for "Sounder" in 1973, the veteran actress has stayed relevant and just as impressive in her work in film and television. Could she go the Ruby Dee route this year?
CONS:
How much screen time does she have? Will it be all about the boys.

19

Carrie Fisher
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)

PROS:
The tragic passing of Carrie Fisher has many standing by and waiting to say farewell to our princess. Can she go the way of a Heath Ledger?
CONS:
She's never been in play for an Oscar before, even after countless times she was good over the years. What would change that?

20

Sarah Paulson
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
She's a talent in nearly everything she touches. In a genre like this, she could stand out (remember "Game Change?").
CONS:
Could be a smaller role. They've passed on her before ("12 Years a Slave" and "Carol").

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Lesley Manville
“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)

PROS:
The snub for "Another Year" is still lingering. Is her role large enough?
CONS:
DDL can suck the air out of the room. Could be all about him.

22

Tiffany Haddish
“Girls Trip” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
A highlight of the year that has very vocal admirers. Will Universal give her a proper push?
CONS:
"Girls Trip" as an awards contender? Is it the next "Bridesmaids?" Tough sell.

23

Marion Cotillard
“Ismael’s Ghosts” (Magnolia Pictures)

PROS:
Oscar-winner for "La Vie en Rose" and nominated again for "Two Days, One Night." Is Cotillard finally back to being noticed by the Academy?
CONS:
The film is smaller and she'll need the critics to help out like last time.

24

Kelly Macdonald
“Goodbye Christopher Robin” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PROS:
She was heavy in the trailer and her work in "No Country for Old Men" is still one of Oscar's greatest misses of the last ten years.
CONS:
Margot Robbie.

25

Penélope Cruz
“Murder on the Orient Express” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
The role won an Oscar and this Oscar-winner ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona") is playing the role.
CONS:
It's not one of the more popular Oscar-winning roles. Not sure

26

Catherine Keener
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)

PROS:
Previous nominee of "Being John Malkovich" and "Capote" who is very good as a deceiving hypnotist.
CONS:
They would have to REALLY love the movie for acting to come in.

27

Miranda Richardson
“Stronger” (Lionsgate)

PROS:
Oscar-nominated for "Tom & Viv" and "Damage." Her Boston mother is garnering raves.
CONS:
Tatiana Maslany.

28

Juno Temple
“Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Supporting Actress is a Woody Allen staple. Can Juno Temple be the newest beneficiary?
CONS:
We never know who will stand out.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

29

Elle Fanning
“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)

PROS:
If we are assessing quality, Fanning's work may be one of the best of the first half of the year. Will they bite for this?
CONS:
Kirsten Dunst.

30

Emma Thompson
“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)

PROS:
If we are assessing quality, Fanning's work may be one of the best of the first half of the year. Will they bite for this?
CONS:
Kirsten Dunst.

31

Rosamund Pike
“Hostiles” (Entertainment Studios)

PROS:
Previous nominee for "Gone Girl," who is said to hold her own in Scott Cooper's western.
CONS:
Still without distribution.

32

Tilda Swinton
“Okja” (Netflix)

PROS:
Was in the race for "Snowpiercer" the last time she teamed up with Joon-ho Bong. She's a bright spot of the first half.
CONS:
The film will struggle to be seen let alone remembered.

33

Dafne Keen
“Logan” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
As the ruthless offspring of Logan, Dafne Keen holds her own against the Oscar-nominated star. She also is in the pivotal scene that got the "man tears" going.
CONS:
Voters can have problems with child killers. She destroys her enemies in a way that can make you shutter.

34

Millicent Simmonds
“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)

PROS:
Young new talent.
CONS:
No one is buzzing.

35

Judi Dench
“Murder on the Orient Express” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
A beloved Oscar-winner who is also great in "Victoria and Abdul." Just in case she stands out...
CONS:
...if she's getting in, it's likely in Lead for Frears' film.

36

Charlotte Gainsbourg
“Ismael’s Ghosts” (Magnolia Pictures)

PROS:
Has been a force in the industry for years but could never muster her own Oscar support. Can she do it now?
CONS:
The early word hasn't cited her too often. Needs a boost.

37

Michelle Pfeiffer
“Murder on the Orient Express” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
She looks fun by the trailer. "mother!" could help some.
CONS:
Not sure how much screen time she'll have in comparison to others.

38

Zendaya
“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)

PROS:
The new "Mary Jane" is on board this musical. A possible breakout year leading to an Oscar?
CONS:
Michelle Williams.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| FOREIGN LANGUAGE |

  • michaeldal65

    Curious Julianne Moore isn’t higher on your predictions. Just saw Wonderstruck. That scene in the bookshop is enough to put her over..

  • Christian Palmer

    Interesting that you have Leo in Supporting and not Lead- I have her in the latter because she’s the film’s biggest name and she simply looks like the lead from the trailer.

    • Gold Derby, Awards Daily and The Film Experience also have her in supporting.

    • I’ve seen the film and she is undoubtedly supporting. A lead run would be foolish, and likely cost her the nomination.

  • Luke McGowan

    Man I wish you’d proof read these before publication, there’s data missing, names wrong, sections that have been copied without changing. I know you’re busy but surely an Oscar Prediction site should have its Oscar predictions as the highest priority to everything else. I think its been since mid 2014 that the Oscar predictions have been updated regularly and cleanly too.

    • We’ve been having issues with the website cache not dumping properly. If you are seeing outdated information, please clear your cache as well. Thank you.

      • Luke McGowan

        Thanks for the reply Clayton and apologies if I came across as rude.

  • Not sure why you’re dismissing Allison Janney as just a “TV actress”.

    Janney has been playing memorable bit parts in important films for well two decades. You should check her out in The Ice Storm, American Beauty, The Hours, Juno, Margaret and The Help.

    • michaeldal65

      She should’ve been nominated for The Way, Way Back…

    • Patrick Downing

      He is implying Academy will dismiss her as a TV actress, despite J K Simmons. Tony winner Laurie Metcalfe should a Broadway star. Claire Foy, Sarah Paulson, Carrie Coon, and Tatiana Maslany have given TV performances better thanmovie performances. I think he is wrong considering that numerous oscar winners had Emmy nominations.

  • Facebook User

    Are these postings proofread?? You have all of Katherine Keener’s credits under Emma Thompson and Miranda Richardson. What’s that about?

  • Baggins

    my picks as of right now in alphabetical order

    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Melissa Leo – Novitiate
    Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour
    Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman

  • Lucas Le Moal

    My favorites : Elle Fanning, Julianne Moore, Michelle Pfeiffer, Octavia Spencer, Mary J. Blige

  • DaKardii

    It’s only been a few days, so anything can happen. But I’m convinced that the fallout from the Weinstein scandal is going to have a major negative effect on any actors or actresses who have either received Oscar nominations working for him, or are currently working on projects produced by his company. For that reason:

    -Melissa Leo stays in the “Predicted Nominees” category ONLY because she’s in the top 2. Anybody who’s not in the top 2 is already in danger of losing the race.

    -I would move Kristin Scott Thomas down to the “Next in Line” category.

    -I would move Michelle Williams down to the “Other Top Tier Contenders” category.

    -I would move Julia Roberts down to the “Other Possibilities” category.

    -I would remove Katherine Waterston, Penelope Cruz, and Judi Dench from the list completely.

  • God

    Mary J. Blige is a STRONG contender and Vogue just published an article today about her Oscar buzz.