As we trek through the summer months and the Cannes Film Festival continues to screen some high-profile projects, I took the liberty to update the 2014 Oscar Tracker. Before the screaming begins, there are some films and performances that are still heavily in consideration to be placed on there as possible contenders for the fall. Names that come to mind are Leonardo DiCaprio for The Great Gatsby, a film panned by many critics but he did have his fair share of praise. Same goes for his co-star Carey Mulligan but I’m less on her chances.
Though it just opened in limited markets, Noah Baumbach’sFrances Ha with Greta Gerwig remains one of the year’s finest efforts and one of Baumbach’s best. I didn’t hesitate to place it on the Original Screenplay list but couldn’t tip one way or the other for Best Actress and a dark, dark horse for Best Picture.
It’s time to dive, dive in deep…well, at least as deep as you can in May. As I attempted to unveil the newest set of Oscar Predictions, I realized how many promising films are left to be seen in the remaining seven months. As of now, the only real Best Picture contender that has the legs to make it until the end of the year would be Sarah Polley’sStories We Tell, and that’s a longshot at best given its genre. You can make arguments for films like The Place Beyond the Pines by Derek Cianfrance and even Mud by Jeff Nichols but those will need a well-placed DVD release with a focused campaign, something I’m not sure the studios are willing to bet on. Cianfrance’s film also has an outside shot for Screenplay and a Supporting Actor mention for Ryan Gosling. If anything, this helps him for Nicolas Winding Refn’sOnly God Forgives, if they’re feeling like recognizing him a second time. It feels like eons ago when Gosling was nominated for Ryan Fleck’s Half Nelson (2006) and then later missed other opportunities for Lars and the Real Girl (2007), Blue Valentine (2010), and Drive (2011). Not sure when it will be before he gets back onto the Oscar radar.
Summer is about to kick into high gear and with that, we have to start really looking at what 2013 can offer for the 2014 Academy Awards in March. The official Oscar Predictions have been updated! Full commentary and a brand new Oscar Circuit will be coming in the next day but now, you can look at each of the Oscar Prediction pages from the left or main menu up top.
Quick thoughts. Staying with Ridley Scott’sThe Counselor for the time being in Best Picture and Director. Bruce Dern jumps to the top for Alexander Payne’sNebraska while Naomi Watts remains the one to beat for Diana. Michael Fassbender’s villainous role in Steve McQueen’s12 Years a Slave is the one to beat while the great Oprah Winfrey jumps to #1 for Lee Daniels’The Butler.
As April has completely come out of nowhere and become fully present, I’ve updated the new Oscar Tracker to keep in mind everything that has already been released this year so far or have screened at major festivals like Sundance, SXSW, and Tribeca.
There’s no super-duper “out there” contender that looks like it can go all the way as of today with the exception of Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight. While the film is an absolute marvel, it won’t be determined until the autumn if it can sustain throughout the summer and become a leading contender like last year with Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Obviously, the latter was the only film to crack the Best Picture lineup but if we’re in store for a change like AMPAS going back to five Best Picture nominees, as some have speculated, a small indie film like Linklater’s could get lost throughout the summer and fall months. As of now, Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy could show up with Linklater in Adapted Screenplay but on their performances alone, they will warrant some consideration. Both are superb in their roles and will have their champions throughout the year. Read more on First Quarter Round-Up – Are There Any Oscar Contenders?…
The 2013 Oscars are over! I’m a little at loss for words about the actual Oscar ceremony which were for the most part, subpar. The only jaw-dropping moment came when Mark Wahlberg and the CGI Ted announced a tie in Best Sound Editing for Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty. For me, that’s not enough. They just seemed more “influenced” then usual in the winners and even nominees. Will Argo stand the test of time as one of “great” Best Picture winners? I’m not sure but it just seemed all a bit too safe for my liking. But I digress.
It’s already time to take a look at what’s coming during the year for us to look forward to. 2013 was an outstanding year for cinema. Ben Affleck’s Argo reigned supreme at the Academy Awards this past Sunday winning three Oscars including Best Picture. The Board of Governors will come together soon and likely throw out some changes to the ceremony like going back to a year of five or something that will turn our heads but as of now, let’s look at it with a blank slate. 2013 has big shoes to fill both in performances and filmmaking.
I’ve begun the big Year-In-Advanced predictions with four categories but before the big reveal, let’s look at them as a whole. What does the year have to offer movie-lovers?
The day is finally here. All the predictions, prognosticating, bitching, and moaning has led to this. The Academy Awards begins at 8:00 pm Eastern time tonight with the Red Carpet beginning at 7:00 pm. However, here we have a day full of great festivities for you to enjoy.
You can check out our CHART page to see what the writers and I are each thinking Oscar might go for. If you missed our series of “WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN” – you can go back and check those out too.
We have our LIVE podcast that begins at 5:00 pm ET via Blog Talk Radio. We’ll be taking your calls, talking last-minute jitters, and trying to calm Mark Johnson down. I’ll also be announcing the winner of Academy Idol Season 6!!!! If you want to call in and chat with us: (347) 237-5231
Our LIVE BLOG, will begin at 7:00 pm ET right here, for all of you to chat with us and fellow Oscar lovers about the red carpet and the winners as they are announced.
I’d like to thank you all for a great year of movie talk and look forward to discussing more with you for the 2014 ceremony. Year-In-Advance Predictions will be up on Tuesday with new articles and series to quickly follow. So don’t go away when the Oscars are over. We are talking Oscars, movies, and television all year long! ACCA 1999, our readership awards that go back in time to fix Oscars’ mistakes, will begin in early March.
I appreciate all of you that continuing to come back to read the site daily. If you feel compelled and generous to do so, running a big operation like this can be quite costly on minimal outside remedies like advertisements which we barely get. I’d ask all of our readers to contribute anything they can via the Donation tab on top or to by clicking here. Any contribution will help us continue to make The Awards Circuit bigger and better for 2013-2014 awards season! Thank you in advanced for your generosity. Read more on Happy Oscar Day! – A Day Full of Excitement…
It’s that time of the year where we want to hear from all of you. There is a short 10 question survey for you to fill out and I beg that you take a few moments to fill out the survey in order to make the Awards Circuit a better place for all entertainment enthusiasts. Greatly appreciated!
CLICK THE BUTTON BELOW!
This past week AMPAS presented their nominees for the very best of 2012. We go through a slew of categories to discuss our reactions and who could be winning in six weeks time. With Spielberg’s Lincoln leading with 12 nominations and Lee’s Life of Pi close behind with 11, are we due for an upset or can a film with no directing nomination like Ben Affleck’s Argo pull through at the last minute?
We also talk some of the BFCA winners, the show, and how the first award show of the season can be perceived.
The Golden Globes are tonight and we make our final predictions of who and what can receive a boost from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
Will ‘Amour’ find no love with the Academy tomorrow?
A word to all you Oscar lovers out there. In less than 24 hours time, hosts Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone will announce the Academy Awards nominees. The reason you’re reading this is because the official Oscar predictions have been updated, and the staple is in the paper…at least on the prognosticating side.
In the Best Picture category, ten films are being predicted for citation, although I’m fairly confident that number will become nine when the nominees are announced. Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty are six films everyone feels confident will make the cut. Deemed ineligible all season for many guild awards, Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Wild seems like a film that was built for the 5% rule. With the recent nomination from the Producers Guild, Wes Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom has picked up momentum in the later weeks of the season. It’s safe to place it as a likely nominee, as well. Read more on 2013 Oscar Predictions Finalized!…
As the Academy sent out the ballots this past Monday, Oscar Predictions were updated, and pundits attempted to wrap their heads around the state of the race. The term “lock” is being thrown around like popcorn. The Lead Actor race, especially stacked with talent, has all but one assured nomination for Daniel Day-Lewis waiting in the wings.
As I mentioned on this week’s “Power Hour”, the race in this category reminds me of the 2005 season, when nine of the world’s finest actors were battling for five spots. Don Cheadle, Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, and Jamie Foxx would fill the Lead Actor lineup, with Paul Giamatti – a presumed lock in one of the Best Picture frontrunners, Sideways (2004) – being left off. Other notable omissions were Javier Bardem for The Sea Inside, Jim Carrey for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and Liam Neeson for Kinsey, all worthy of citations. This season, there has been a lot of who will fill the infamous “fifth spot”, a term coined in the case of four locks in any respective group of the Academy Awards, with one spot being available to another worthy candidate. Read more on Looking at Oscar’s ‘Fifth Spot’…
With two (really one) contender left to be unveiled, this is the most exciting awards race I’ve covered in all my years of Oscar prognosticating. Every category is competitive and with races like this, anything can happen. Along with updating the official Oscar Predictions, I’ve updated the major precursors such as the Golden Globe Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
As New York gets ready to lift on Monday, which I’ve attempted to take a stab at, the National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics will start the chain reaction of the awards season. Before anyone knows the winners, I’m seeing this as a three-horse race between Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables, Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, and Ben Affleck’s Argo, more particularly the first two films. Currently I’m foreseeing Hooper’s film to lead the way on Oscar nomination morning with 13 nominations, assuming lead Hugh Jackman and standout Eddie Redmayne can plow through some of the veterans in their categories. Read more on Oscar Circuit – Music vs. History…
As the awards season is underway, multiple scenarios are playing out in my mind suggesting what can occur for the remainder of the year. Films like The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Zero Dark Thirty are still sight unseen with Django Unchained and Promised Land about to get their first set of eyes. Last week Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables debuted a full-length trailer featuring Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Eddie Redmayne, and Amanda Seyfried all showing some singing skills. Supporting Actress frontrunner Anne Hathaway was shown singing “I Dreamed a Dream” for the third time in the Universal Pictures marketing, which leads me to my point of the Oscar Circuit.
The trailer for Les Miserables didn’t do the film any favors. The clunky production design, unnecessary wide-angles, and even the live singing on set didn’t seem as great as I’d thought it’d be. In this latest round of Oscar Predictions, I’ve decided to back from Tom Hooper’s film a little bit. Where momentum and prestige is on the side of Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln and Ben Affleck’s Argo, big stage musicals transferred to film aren’t always safe bets. What makes this notion of the film failing to impress even more compelling is Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master. If Anne Hathaway were to fall out of the Supporting Actress race, who could win the award in her absence? There are arguably three slots taken in Supporting Actress with Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), and Helen Hunt (The Sessions). If it’s between those three for the win, Adams will be on her fourth nomination with the other two ladies having Oscars already. Field herself would be 3 for 3 for Oscar nominations, something hard to envision happening. Hunt has had a hard time post-Oscar win and isn’t as beloved as her competitors. This could all work out for the young Amy Adams. Read more on Oscar Circuit – “Master” of Networking?…
We spoke about this possibility on a podcast a few weeks back but it seems that a source as confirmed to Tom O’Neil of Gold Derby that Academy Award Winner Christoph Waltz will be campaigned as a lead actor in Quentin Tarantino’s upcoming Django Unchained. Oscar-winner Jamie Foxx, who plays a slave-turned-bounty hunter that is searching for his wife will compete against Waltz along with the entire roster of the Weinstein Company. Read more on Gold Derby Confirms Christoph Waltz being campaigned as Lead Actor…
When the Lionsgate Awards site went LIVE today and listed their slate of contenders involving Stephen Chbosky’s The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Fisher Stevens’ Stand Up Guys, Gary Ross’ The Hunger Games, Nicholas Jarecki’s Arbitrage, and J.A. Bayona’s The Impossible, I started to analyze how this year could pan out for smaller films that are trying to make a play; even more so, the performances in them.
I’ve touted on podcasts for weeks that Nate Parker utterly deserves a citation in Arbitrage, a raw, authentic turn that stands as one of the year’s bests. His co-star Richard Gere is currently being predicted in the Lead Actor top five, mostly on the notion that after years of ignoring and snubbing, voter’s eyes would finally be open to the charm that Gere portrays in Jarecki’s film. As Hugh Jackman remains a mystery of the season in Les Miserables andthe word of Anthony Hopkins’ work in Hitchcock rallies some muted enthusiasm, a first-time nominee is bound to crack the top five. Believe me, Bradley Cooper might have a leg up on Gere given his film’s Best Picture chances and the powerful Weinsteins backing, but perhaps an overdue veteran has the gas to go the distance. Read more on Two Lead Contenders on Lionsgate Awards Plate…
Writing this LIVE in the middle of Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast, what’s a better time to talk about Oscar Predictions than now. As we enter the leg of the season this November, some categories start to look more clear and less of a mystery. Some films also emerge as the ones to beat.
This past weekend Ben Affleck’s Argotook the #1 spot at the Box Office with the word-of-mouth spreading, the film, at this point, looks like the one to beat in Best Picture and Best Director. In response to the acting possibilities, some think that Affleck could show up like Clint Eastwood did in the year of Million Dollar Baby (2004) in Best Actor. It’s hard to imagine Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, and Joaquin Phoenix missing out on nominations with Denzel Washington in a comfortable fourth spot. Affleck and about fifteen other leading hopefuls are fighting for the fifth spot. Richard Gere’s goodwill charm and the lack of Oscar nominations to his credit may catapult him forward to his first mention in his forty-year career in Nicholas Jarecki’s Arbitrage. The film itself could follow the way of last year’s Margin Call, which surprised with an Original Screenplay mention on Oscar nomination morning.
This week saw the official Oscar Predictions getting an update. Looking at the Best Actor race and trying to sort nearly twenty contenders into five slots is going to upset a lot of people. Touch on much of this in this week’s Oscar Circuit but given the strong case for many leading men who have never been nominated (Hugh Jackman, Richard Gere, Bradley Cooper, Jack Black), it looks like someone’s going to get left off in a field that’s tighter than ever.
The Awards Circuit Staff Writers have updated their own predictions, which is now located under the “Oscar Predictions” tab in the menu. Check out what they’re thinking about the current state of the race. Did Joaquin Phoenix’s recent rant cost him the Oscar for Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master? Is Jennifer Lawrence the real favorite to win Best Actress? Is Leonardo DiCaprio getting his long overdue Academy Award in a Quentin Tarantino film? Is there any competition for Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables?
The Oscar race is beginning to formulate itself. As it stands the Academy Awards have positioned themselves to be the wildest of wild cards of the Oscar season. Since Oscar ballots are due January 3rd, the nominations will be one of many awards ceremonies coming down like wildfire.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards announce their nominee choices first beginning on December 10th. The Broadcast Film Critics Association will name their best of the year with the Critics Choice Movie Awards being announced the next day on December 11th. The Hollywood Foreign Press will follow-suit with their Golden Globe nominations on December 13th. Mark my words; those four days will likely be the most important and telling aspects of the awards season. If you start hearing the usual suspects, back-to-back and over and over, Oscar will be referring to these groups for citations for their own nominees when they’re announced on January 10th. Read more on Oscar Circuit: “10 Weeks to Go”…
It’s getting serious now. Oscar Circuit to follow sometime today or tomorrow. For now, enjoy the predictions. Also, keep in mind, there is commentary listed below on the Oscar Predictions Pages now as well as commentary on the individual pages in the categories. Click on the box or picture and it will bring you to the commentary (FOR IT, AGAINST IT).
As Telluride and Venice ended and we sit in the heat that is the Toronto Film Festival, I’m updating Oscar Predictions slowly but surely. Screenings are happening daily and the race could change in a matter of seconds. My solution is to update one category per day for the next 20 days. By then Toronto would have ended, and we would be sitting firmly in the clump of the New York Film Festival. I’ve started with the biggest juggernaut, Best Motion Picture, but most importantly I took the opportunity to update the Oscar Tracker with several films and performances added to their respective categories. Read more on Oscar Circuit: Resistance is Futile…
“…no one can get at it except for me” – Daniel Plainview, There Will Be Blood
That’s how I feel about this Oscar race. I feel I see something that no one else does. I’ve been doing this a long time but I’ve never had the overwhelming feeling like I just figured out the Oscar race in August. I was sitting down to do my Oscar predictions like any other month. Making some switches, moving some contenders, and cleaning out films and performances that we thought would be coming out but still have no release date.
I stared at a few names and had an epiphany. It was as if I was Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, and the code all came off the page and circled my head in an Oscar sensation. On August 25, 2012 I’ve chosen to make my first ballsy prediction of the year. Terrence Malick and his film, To the Wonder wins Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars 2013. How did I come to this conclusion you ask? I will discuss this in more detail on this week’s Power Hour which premieres on Monday but I’ll attempt to give you the best break down possible in the following thoughts beginning with the Director field: Read more on Oscar Circuit: “There’s a whole ocean of oil under our feet…”…
The second half of the year is upon us. The race is about to heat up with big Oscar hopefuls coming down the pike. Our John Foote will be in attendance at the Toronto International Film Festival and many films will be unveiling themselves to critics alike. There is a very unclear yet still feasible shape to the race looking from ten thousand feet.
There are internet jitters building for Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master starring Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman. With the trailers released and now the film being pushed up to September, it looks as though we may be in store for a master class in filmmaking. Phoenix also looks to be a lead contender for his first Oscar after delivering in his previous nominated works, Gladiator (2000) and Walk the Line (2005). Phoenix does have tough competition ahead of him including what looks to be a critical darling-type performance coming from John Hawkes in Ben Lewin’s The Sessions. Early word is very positive for the film and the turns by Hawkes along with co-stars Helen Hunt and William H. Macy. Since Hawkes’ initial nomination two years ago for Winter’s Bone, he hasn’t shown any signs of letting up. He was arguably left off last year in Sean Durkin’s Martha Marcy May Marlene and will be seen later this year in Julia Dyer’s The Playroom and Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln. There seems to be a tremendous following and support for him in his current state. Speaking of Spielberg, we’re still awaiting some type of marketing material for his upcoming Lincoln biopic. No poster or trailer has been released with very few stills leaked online. One starts to think if it will even be ready in time.
It’s the first of the month. Not only that, it’s the first day of the second half of the year. Anybody else feel like that was fast? Yet, here we are.
It’s time to start getting serious, Oscar-wise. Not many things have come out, and not many films are looking like Best Picture nominees from the first half. Some will argue The Avengers with a $600 million dollar bank is in talks. Some think the little indie-film Moonrise Kingdom from Wes Anderson could be our “Little Miss Sunshine” of the year. In limited release, Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Wild has opened and received one of the best word-of-mouth reviews of the year. Is that a contender for the big prize? I’d say it is.
I’m ready to start getting down and dirty with these predictions.