UPDATED – FEBRUARY 23, 2017 – FINAL PREDICTIONS – With “La La Land” winning PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice, everything has moved in this direction for some time.  The SAG Ensemble miss is still a blip on the radar but it shouldn’t matter.  The question is how many Oscars will it win?

ENTER OUR OSCARS CONTEST via our CIRCUIT CENTER HERE!

AND THE NOMINEES ARE

  1. La La Land” (SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT)
    Fred Berger, Gary Gilbert, Jordan Horowitz, Marc Platt
  2. Moonlight” (A24)
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski
  3. Lion” (THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY)
    Iain Canning, Angie Fielder, Emile Sherman
  4. Hidden Figures” (20TH CENTURY FOX)
    Peter Chernin, Donna Gigliotti, Theodore Melfi, Jenno Topping, Pharrell Williams
  5. Manchester by the Sea” (ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS/AMAZON STUDIOS)
    Lauren Beck, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Kimberly Steward, Kevin J. Walsh
  6. Arrival” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
    Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, David Linde, Karen Lunder, Aaron Ryder
  7. Hacksaw Ridge” (LIONSGATE)
    Terry Benedict, Paul Currie, Bruce Davey, William D. Johnson, Bill Mechanic, Brian Oliver, David Permut, Tyler Thompson
  8. Hell or High Water” (CBS FILMS)
    Sidney Kimmel, Peter Berg, Carla Hacken, Julie Yorn
  9. Fences” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
    Todd Black, Scott Rudin, Denzel Washington

MISSED THE CUT

  • Silence” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
    Vittorio Cecchi Gori, Barbara De Fina, Randall Emmett, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Irwin Winkler
  • Loving” (FOCUS FEATURES)
    Nancy Buirski, Ged Doherty, Colin Firth, Sarah Green, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub
  • Nocturnal Animals” (FOCUS FEATURES)
    Tom Ford, Robert Salerno
  • Jackie” (FOX SEARCHLIGHT PICTURES)
    Darren Aronofsky, Pascal Caucheteux, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel, Juan de Dios Larraín, Mickey Liddel
  • Sully” (WARNER BROS.)
    Clint Eastwood, Frank Marshall
  • 20th Century Women” (A24)
    Anne Carey, Megan Ellison, Youree Henley
  • Florence Foster Jenkins” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
    Michael Kuhn, Tracey Seaward
  • Patriots Day” (CBS FILMS)
    Dorothy Aufiero, Dylan Clark, Stephen Levinson, Michael Radutzky, Scott Stuber, Mark Wahlberg
  • The Jungle Book” (WALT DISNEY PICTURES)
    Jon Faverau, Brigham Taylor
  • Captain Fantastic” (BLEECKER STREET)
    Lynette Howell Taylor, Jamie Patricof, Shivani Rawat, Monica Levinson
  • Zootopia” (WALT DISNEY PICTURES)
    Clark Spencer

ALSO MISSED

  • I, Daniel Blake” (SUNDANCE SELECTS)
    Rebecca O’Brien
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” (WALT DISNEY PICTURES)
    Simon Emanuel, Kathleen Kennedy, Allison Shearmur, Tony To
  • Live By Night” (WARNER BROS.)
    Ben Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Davisson Killoran, Jennifer Todd
  • Miss Sloane” (EUROPACORP USA)
    Ben Browning, Kris Thykier, Ariel Zeitoun
  • Toni Erdmann” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS)
    Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Michel Merkt
  • The Birth of a Nation” (FOX SEARCHLIGHT PICTURES)
    Jason Michael Berman, Aaron L. Gilbert, Preston L. Holmes, Nate Parker, Kevin Turen
  • 13th” (NETFLIX)
    Spencer Averik, Howard Barish, Ava DuVernay
  • The Lobster” (A24)
    Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
  • Moana” (WALT DISNEY PICTURES)
    Osnat Shurer
  • Deadpool” (20TH CENTURY FOX)
    Simon Kinberg, Ryan Reynolds, Lauren Shuler Donner

OTHER MISSES

  • Deepwater Horizon” (LIONSGATE)
    Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Mark Vahradian, David Womark
  • Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (SONY PICTURES)
    Simon Cornwell, Stephen Cornwell, Ang Lee, Marc Platt, Tom Rothman, Rhodri Thomas
  • Rules Don’t Apply (20TH CENTURY FOX)
    Warren Beatty, Steve Bing, Ron Burkle, Molly Conners, Frank Giustra, Sarah E. Johnson, William D. Johnson, Jonathan McCoy, Arnon Milchan, Steven Mnuchin, Sybil Robson Orr, James Packer, Brett Ratner, Terry Semel, Jeffrey Soros, Christopher Woodrow
  • Bleed for This” (OPEN ROAD)
    Bruce Cohen, Noah Kraft, Pamela Thur, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Chad A. Verdi, Ben Younger
  • The Founder” (THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY)
    Don Handfield, Jeremy Renner, Aaron Ryder
  • Passengers” (SONY PICTURES)
    Stephen Hamel, Michael Maher, Ori Marmur, Neal H. Moritz
  • Allied” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
    Graham King, Steve Starkey, Robert Zemeckis
  • Denial” (BLEECKER STREET)
    Gary Foster, Russ Krasnoff
  • Love & Friendship” (ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS)
    Lauranne Bourrachot, Katie Holly, Whit Stillman
  • Queen of Katwe” (WALT DISNEY PICTURES)
    John B. Carls, Lydia Dean Pilcher

UNRANKED FILMS IN PLAY

  • American Honey” (A24) – Thomas Benski, Lara Knudsen, Lucas Ochoa, Pouya Shahbazian, Jay Van Hoy, Alice Weinberg
  • American Pastoral” (LIONSGATE) – Gary Lucchesi, Tom Rosenberg
  • Anthropoid” (BLEECKER STREET) – Sean Ellis, Mickey Liddell, Pete Shilaimon
  • Cafe Society” (AMAZON STUDIOS) – Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum, Edward Walson
  • Certain Women” (IFC FILMS) – Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani
  • Christine” (THE ORCHARD) – Melody C. Roscher, Craig Shilowich
  • Collateral Beauty” (WARNER BROS.) – Anthony Bregman, Bard Dorros, Kevin Scott Frakes, Allan Loeb, Michael Sugar
  • The Comedian” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS) – Mark Canton, Taylor Hackford, Art Linson, John Linson, Courtney Solomon
  • The Dressmaker” (AMAZON STUDIOS) – Sue Maslin
  • Elle” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS) – Saïd Ben Saïd, Michel Merkt
  • Eye in the Sky” (BLEECKER STREET) – Ged Doherty, Colin Firth, David Lancaster
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” (WARNER BROS.) – David Heyman, Steve Kloves, J.K. Rowling, Lionel Wigram
  • Gold” (THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY) – Michael Nozik, Teddy Schwarzman
  • Green Room” (A24) – Neil Kopp, Anish Savjani, Victor Moyers
  • The Handmaiden” (AMAZON STUDIOS) – Park Chan-Wook, Syd Lim
  • The Hollars” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS) – John Krasinski, Ben Nearn, Tom Rice, Allyson Seeger
  • The Girl on the Train” (UNIVERSAL PICTURES) – Jared LeBoff, Marc Platt
  • Julieta” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS) – Augustin Almodovar, Esther Garcia
  • Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children” (20TH CENTURY FOX) – Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping
  • A Monster Calls” (FOCUS FEATURES) – Belén Atienza
  • Morris from America” (A24) – Martin Heisler, Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy, Gabriele Simon
  • Neruda” (THE ORCHARD) – Renan Artukmac, Peter Danner, Fernanda Del Nido, Juan Pablo Garcia, Axel Kuschevatzky, Juan de Dios Larrain, Ignacio Rey, Gastón Rothschild, Jeff Skoll, Alex Zito
  • Paterson” (AMAZON STUDIOS) – Joshua Astrachan, Carter Logan
  • The Red Turtle” (SONY PICTURES CLASSICS) – Pascal Caucheteux, Vincent Maraval, Gregoire Dorlat, Toshio Suzuki
  • Snowden” (OPEN ROAD) – Moritz Borman, Eric Kopeloff, Philip Schulz-Deyle, Fernando Sulichin
  • Swiss Army Man” (A24) – Lawrence Inglee, Jonathan Wang, Miranda Bailey, Amanda Marshall, Eyal Rimmon, Lauren Mann
  • Trolls” (DREAMWORKS ANIMATION) – Gina Shay
  • The Witch” (A24) – Jay Van Hoy, Lars Knudsen, Jodi Redmond, Daniel Bekerman, Rodrigo Teixeira

**=could be pushed back to 2017

CHECK OUT OTHER CATEGORIES:

PICTURE |DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR |SUPPORTING ACTRESS |ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY |ADAPTED SCREENPLAY |ANIMATED FEATURE |PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • jyounge28

    I just want to say that Trash is probably not going to be an Oscar player. I’ve read the book and it is a genre film which is a welcome departure for Daldry.

  • Paula Nicole Gajardo Camposano

    I know its a YA movie,but what happens with The Fault in Our Stars??? it looks amazing, and the book its great. The same guys who bring The Spectacular Now, I will catch an eye on this movie.

  • ChrisA90

    Call me crazy, but I’m holding out hope for Cameron Crowe’s next film. I know he hasn’t done much lately, but I love Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. As a fan of his, I’m hoping he has a comeback. Be interesting to see if Bradley Cooper can keep his hot streak going too.

  • Luc Brun

    What about “Squirrel to the Nuts” ! The Peter Bogdanovich’s come back after 10 years !

  • Anthony Moseley

    Such high hopes for Inherent Vice. I’m sure it will he a great film, but PTA isn’t exactly the Oscar darling that most people wish he was. After the Academy snubbed The Master in the BP and BD categories, I’m cautious on the film’s Oscar chances beyond the acting categories.

  • Lennert

    Looking forward to Kill the Messenger! Cuesta & Renner have worked together before and it’s a story that needs to be told IMO! Unbroken and Big Eyes sound very interesting, I’ll probably watch these!

  • Why do you and several others have INTO THE WOODS penciled in? Big cast but early buzz has been so negative about changes

  • Why do you and several others have INTO THE WOODS penciled in? Big cast but early buzz has been so negative about changes

  • Movie fans, these are GREAT conversation starters. Well done. MT : 2015 Oscars http://t.co/fjUn178xvS http://t.co/xk0dqhrBNi

  • Wow! Both Foxcatcher and Gone Girl not currently in.

  • why do you have inside out below the good dinosaur? With the box office and reviews, you think gd has a better shot unseen?

  • Lennon Surcot

    You have both Moana and Dory listed as Best Picture contenders, and both haven’t even been released yet! Yet Zootopia is missing from this list! Seriously? Does anyone really think that both of these will do something so original and well recived that it will top Zootopia? I think not! And could easily see Zootopia up for several major awards.

    • Marwin 1994

      and also The Little Prince with the music of Hans Zimmer and directed by Mark Osborne.

  • Josamaroo

    I guess the Oscars really do snub Horror films these days or more like decades. Even websites that talk about Oscar awards snub Horror films. So I take it no-one has seen the fantastic horror film The Witch despite it grossing 45 million on a 1 million budget, because if they had seen it they would understand this film deserves something from the Academy Awards. Silence Of The Lambs was the last film that truly represented the horror genre and that was forever ago so maybe it’s finally time to recognize horror movies and give The Witch a nod for its originality, costumes, design, directing, and definitely its acting. But these are the same folks who snubbed The Conjuring but gave a nomination to Bad Grandpa. Come on, Wake Up!

    • Marwin 1994

      Yeah.. In previous Oscars, IT FOLLOWS was snubbed for Best Original Score and Best Film Editing. THE BABADOOK was also snubbed for Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. CRIMSON PEAK was also snubbed for Best Make Up, Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. I’ve never seen a horror film that was nominated for a very long time since Pans Labyrinth . So sad.

  • Marwin 1994

    I hope THE LITTLE PRINCE will get nominated for Best Picture and also in some categories like Best Animated Film, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best in Original Score, Best in Original Screenplay, Best Film Directing, Best Original Song for “Equation” and “Turn Around”. And also FINDING DORY for Best Picture, Best Original Score, Best Original Screenplay, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing.

    • Walter

      The Little Prince never played theatrically. It went straight to NETFLIX streaming.

  • Orlando Whitcomb-Worden

    If I may ask, is Patriots Day not on your list because you think it might not be good or is there some other reason?

  • Luke McGowan

    1. Silence
    2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    3. La La Land
    4. The Birth of a Nation
    5. Loving
    6. The Founder
    7. Miss Sloane
    8. Lion
    9. Gold

  • Alpha Kenny Buddy

    1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    2. Silence
    3. The Birth of a Nation
    4. La La Land
    5. Manchester By the Sea
    6. Allied
    7. Moonlight
    8. Loving

    9. Fences
    10. Sully

  • Kollin Lore

    Man, all the lists I’m looking at has The Founder outside the top 10. I have a feeling it will sneak up on everyone and become a frontrunner, though it has no chance of winning.

    • Luke McGowan

      It’ll be The Blind Side again, same director.

  • Tee

    1. The Birth of a Nation
    2. Silence
    3. Loving
    4. Billy Lynn’s Half-Time Walk
    5. Fences
    6. La La Land
    7. American Pastoral

    8. Manchester by the Sea
    9. Sully
    10. The Light Between the Oceans
    11. 20th Century Women
    12. HHnH
    13. Lion
    14. Rules Don’t Apply
    15. Live by Night

  • Charl Eton

    Hacksaw Ridge is not in the list of the top 40 pictures? The first forty must be effing amazing!

    • Luke McGowan

      Clayton and the others didn’t like the trailers. Personally, I’d still put it in the 20 still.

  • Grant Washburn

    What’s your take on Hacksaw Ridge?

  • ReallyReallyBigMan

    Hell or High Water? 42 reviews, 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, 8.5/10 rating. Pretty damn good.

  • LU27

    HELL OR HIGH WATER and THE NICE GUYS

  • Gustafsson

    40+ films, including some with no distributor, are more likely nominees than a completely raved western noir, starring Jeff Bridges? I don’t get it.

  • AndreTheTurtle

    So, you have Monna above Zootopia, even though all we have seen from Monna is a 1:30 teaser, and Zootopia is the best reviewed film of the year? That does kind of bother me. XD

    • zgamer

      I’m putting Moana above Zootopia personally because I thought Zootopia was just alright (not great but not bad) and Moana looks like it has a lot more promise to resonate more profoundly with me. It’s all to be seen of course.

      • AndreTheTurtle

        Don’t get me wrong. If you are doing a personal list about which films you would personal prefer to be represented, I have no problem with you not putting it higher even if I may not agree with you. I guess my issue is that this is a prediction for what the Academy will nominate at the awards, and it seems overzealous to me to put Moana above Zootopia as of right now. Nevertheless, I am sure both will be nominated, which will make all this complaining irrelevant. Haha.

        • zgamer

          Well, technically any Oscar prediction is overzealous by that definition. Heck, we haven’t even seen trailers for half the movies on this list yet 🙂 hehehe!

          • AndreTheTurtle

            While I agree with that, in the animated category we have seen the majority of film. Storks, Sing, Trolls, and The Red Turtle are about the only major ones I can think of that could be contenders, with the later being the more likely, so it is easier to scope this race out than to say for Best Picture. Either way, I am not one for actually predicting nominations myself, let alone this early in the year. We will get a much clearer picture when the awards start to come in.

  • Thomas mahari

    I hope for passengers and la la land to be nominated

  • ChrisA90

    That’s too bad about Live By Night not getting a qualifying run in December. I wonder why WB would move it from October 2017 to January then? I’m still holding out hope it crashes the party late.

    • Pedro

      Well, if it’s really true that the movie won’t get a qualifying run in the December, then the only logical explanation for them to move the movie from October to January is that they apparently realized that it is a turd.

      • Luke McGowan

        I don’t know, I don’t get how Affleck could go from making three masterpieces to a January release turd. If it sucked, surely they’d push it back rather than bring it forward. Unless he’s been really distracted as Batman and didn’t give the movie his full attention. Otherwise, I think WB is trying to see what they can do with Sully and/or how weak the race is. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re lying.

        • Pedro

          It happens to almost every great director to sometimes make a “turd”. Even Steven Spielberg had a few misteps when he was at his prime. like “1941” and “Hook”.
          Keep in mind that Affleck was going through his divorce during the shooting of the movie. So maybe his personal problems also affected his work in this case.
          But I still haven’t lost hope that the movie gets a qulaifying release in December. Maybe they want to surprise us with a premiere at the AFI Fest.

          • Luke McGowan

            Seeing the trailer I just don’t see it. And besides, why bring it forward when you can push it back. Trust me, this will be good

            • Pedro

              I hope you are right.

  • Damian Pietrzak

    Silence will be released this year….i would be shocked if they push to 2017

    • Chris L.

      A certain awards pundit I’m apparently not allowed to quote by name agrees with you.

  • Brooke

    Yep – I’m with you…Billy Lynn is my pick as well

  • shitbrick

    Does hidden figures really have a shot at best picture. It would be great if it did it mean wonders for costner career. BUt given kevin bad luck i doubt it. Plus silence might take its slot

  • Disney Vasquez

    5 of the 10 with black cast…Somebody is a coward, playing the PC game. P.S. ‘Hidden Figures’, ‘Moonlight’ and “The Birth of a Nation’ have zero shot.

    • Luke McGowan

      Aside from the inherent bigotry of such a sweeping statement, would you care to share the “wisdom” that has lead you to this conclusion?

  • shitbrick

    Why do you think none of those black films have a shot i think oscars will at least nominated one black film. Given nate parker rape allegations i do not see the film gaining best picture. But the other films could get attention

    • Luke McGowan

      Fences is definitely a frontrunner, and I think Hidden Figures could play really well also.

    • Luke McGowan

      Not to mention Moonlight.

  • Reece

    The Jungle Book is surprisingly high, but it pretty much was the best the first half had to offer (with the exception of The Nice Guys)

    Also, Moonlight has just skyrocketed to a top contender, The Birth of a Nation is OUT, Hidden Figures is most likely OUT.

    Plus, I’m not so sure about Best Picture for Loving. Acting contender, but the reviews where “okay”

  • shitbrick

    Why is hIdden figures out

  • Silence at #1? What!?

    • Luke McGowan

      Because a source said its coming out

  • shitbrick

    Anyone want to explain why hidden figures wont get a nom

  • shitbrick

    But this website is usually right for most part so hiddne figures will get snubbed

  • Anthony Moseley

    Are we just going to ignore the 10-minute standing ovation that Hacksaw Ridge got at Venice? I think it’s definitely going to be a contender.

  • shitbrick

    I am huge costner fan i would love the movie to get best picture nom

  • shitbrick

    Trailer for hidden figures got great reactions but given costner track record i unfortuantly doubt it. aside from man of steel he has not had hit in a while. Company men and black or white both got oscar buzz but it ended up snubbed

    • Luke McGowan

      Costner isn’t directing or even starring, he’s playing a supporting role.

  • shitbrick

    I guess birth of a nation is out of the race the rape allegations hurt the film

  • shitbrick

    The reviews for fences have not come out yet. it could get bad reviews. fences and hidden figures are only films in the best picture contending list where reviews have not yet come out

    • GerardoRV

      Silence?

    • Alec Glass

      true, but given that this is all speculative, every sign points to Fences being a success (as much as anything can with it being the case that nobody’s seen it): we know it’s well written as its August Wilson adapting his own massively successful play, it would be incredibly shocking if the acting didn’t land given that a god chunk of the cast and all the leads are the same from the broadway revival which garnered several of them Tony nods, Denzel and Viola winning theirs I believe, and Denzel will also be directing it, and when an actor directs, it usually goes best when its something more in the line of a drama: where directing the actors is more important than being an excellent “film” director. So yes, all speculative, but as far as speculation goes, Fences is about as safe a bet as it gets IMO

  • shitbrick

    Costner is supporting but if it gets best picture nom it would mean so much for his career

    • r0ckmypants

      Are you forgetting that Costner already has 2 Oscars? How would a Best Picture nom for Hidden Figures mean anything more to his career than that?

  • shitbrick

    Hidden figures got huge round of applause at TIFF . If it get best picture nom it would still mean costner attaching a hit on his resume.

  • Luke McGowan

    The trailer for Collateral Beauty just stumped me. I didn’t realise how silly its premise is. It’ll have to be incredible for it to be any good. Let’s move Live By Night up already!!

    • Jonathan

      Live by Night hasn’t received an official December 2016 limited release yet

      • Luke McGowan

        I mean Warner Bros should move it up, not Clayton

  • Zain Shahid

    Live by Night has received an Oscar qualifying release date according to IMDb

  • Arrival and Nocturnal Animals over Jackie, Sully and Manchester by the Sea?

    • Alec Glass

      lol, looks like he listened to you XD

    • NotSoAverageJoe

      Arrival and Nocturnal Animals have way better reviews than Jackie and especially Sully.

  • TomNewYorker

    don’t know about Moonlight, It looks more like a Independent Spirit Award contender then a Oscar Contender, yet again, I said the same thing about Room lol.

  • archer somit

    i think Snowden will be nominate as best picture award….

  • shitbrick

    This seems to be the only website that thinks hidden figures has a huge shot. ohter websites thinks it has minor chance. Plus with the amount of time that websites changes predictions I would not be surprised if hidden figures is out of race.

    • Damian Pietrzak

      What? Feinberg (THR) and Tapley (Variety) are both predicting Hidden Figures. If THR and Variety are not huge website, then i dont know anymore..

  • LP

    rough year for films..and I thought last year was bad. I know Spotlight and The Revenant were late year releases but don’t see many promising options for best picture.

    • NotSoAverageJoe

      I disagree, its just that this guys list sucks balls. There have been many amazing movies already released (Eye in the Sky, Hell or High Water, Sing Street, Hunt for the Wilderpeople, Nice Guys) and movies that have not had wide releases yet like Nocturnal Animals, La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea all have rave early reviews. Also Silence and Billy Lyn are almost guaranteed to be great given the directors behind them. Overall I see a packed year for best picture.

  • Reece

    i cant see Lion or Hidden Figures getting it. Loving has also died down a bit…

    lol all the minority films are starting to lag, more backlash on the way :

    • Luke McGowan

      Loving is running the long campaign, like Brooklyn did last year. Every time it pops up everyone remembers why they love it. I think its a fairly safe top 10 contender, wait until the precursors start.

  • shitbrick

    lion got mixed reviews from tiff so its out of race

  • Damian Pietrzak

    Why is Jackie #11? look at eviews and its subject. its easily top5 film Clayton…

  • shitbrick

    jackie buzz mostly geared towards portman i dont see it getting best picture nom

  • shitbrick

    damian do you agree with variety choices

  • LU27

    Is War Machine coming out this year?

  • shitbrick

    war machine coming out next year

  • Robby Poffenberger

    I could totally see most of this. Gotta be honest, I think you’ve been overestimating Jungle Book’s heft this year. It was a well-received (but not beloved) March release with some cool technicals. but not what Oscar would normally goes for. I could see it getting a sole VFX nod, or just snubbed altogether. Just curious, have you watched it twice? I didn’t think it held up that well.

    • Jonathan

      Not beloved? 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 77 on Metacritic (average of 86%, which is universal acclaim)

  • shitbrick

    Lion got mixed reviews i do not see it getting best picture nom anymore. So far the only sure bets are la la land billy flyn (since oscars love ang lee) and silence(oscars love to nominate martin) . Now iam iffy about hidden figures reviews for fences have not come out plus oscars have snubbed movies where denzel directos before . Lion and moonlight could still get snubbed. As for jackie most of the buzz is around portman i have a feeling the only important nod it iwll get is best actress

    • Gabriel Tiller

      “Lion got mixed reviews i do not see it getting best picture nom anymore.”

      Didn’t stop Blind Side or Extremely Loud.

    • It’s got less than 10 reviews at Metacritic. There is no consensus yet.

  • shitbrick

    Its rare films with mixed reviews get best picture. Actualy blind side got good reviews extremely loud got bad reviews

  • Nihal Bhat

    silence release date confirmed for 23rd Dec

  • shitbrick

    lion got 69 percent on rotten tomatoes according to Wikipedia which ranges from mixed review to good. Hidden figures is being shown in San Diego film festival I think its the whole film too. So reviews for that film will show how it does

  • Jonathan

    Not one film that Denzel Washington has starred in has recieved a Best Picture nomination (but I’m sure “Cry Freedom”, “Glory”, “The Hurricane” and “American Gangster” were close)

  • LU27

    I don’t think Lion is getting nominated

    • Nihal Bhat

      weird how they are putting it in the top category. it wont even make 3rd category.

      • Charl Eton

        Weinstein Company is always there… or there abouts. And they have a history of backing back their best chances heavily. I think this site is running with history for now.

  • Tobey

    Thoughts on Fantastic Beasts? I think it looks really good but Harry Potter hasn’t had a good track record with the Academy voters. Do you think Fantastics Beasts will be the first Harry Potter series will be the first film to win an academy awards?

  • Nihal Bhat

    dicaprio isnt in live by night.

  • superdudguy

    i do not see 13th getting best picture nom . Documentary never get best picture nom. Lion does not have great reviews so it does not seem like sure thing. So is hidden figures not a sure thing anymore so far hidden figures might have better chance then lion. Fyi denzel did apear in a best picture nom film before a solider stroy

    • Jonathan

      Ah – missed that one. I guess no film where he has the leading role has gotten a nod haha

    • Luke McGowan

      Good call on A Soldier Story, but he was such a small part I’m not surprised people missed it. Its still shocking none of his headlined films have been nominated

  • Trev

    13th for Best Picture is NOT happening. Stop trying to make 13th happen.

  • Alpha Kenny Buddy

    October Update:
    01. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Winner)

    02. Silence
    03. La La Land
    04. Manchester By the Sea
    05. Moonlight
    06. Gold
    07. Hell or High Water
    08. Allied

    09. Jackie
    10. Hidden Figures
    11. Fences
    12. Sully

    • Tony Strak

      No, La La Land Will be the Winner

  • Greg

    Seriously put ARRIVAL on your list and Amy Adams on the Best Actress list. Another screening today and only RAVE all over the place. Cited as one of the best sci-fi movie ever made. 100% on RottenTomatoes with 40 critics and an 8.8/10 average score and 80 on metacritic.

  • Nikhil Nandu

    Ok so I am rooting for it, but can someone please explain to me how Lion is three on the list? I just want to know what gives you that confidence.

    • Tony Strak

      La La Land win

  • Alec Glass

    Manchester by the Sea at 11???
    Might make sense if not for your other predictions alongside it… I’d like to look into the statistics of the last time a movie WON two acting categories, one of them lead, AND for the screenplay OVER the BP winner without getting nominated for picture … Let alone in a year of an expanded line up BP… It just doesn’t compute. Let’s also remember that the biggest branch of the academy is the actors’ branch… And Manchester by the Sea is nothing if not the kind of movie actors LOVE to see. It’s written and directed by an acclaimed playwright for christs sake.

    • Jonathan

      I totally agree – especially since Clayton removed “Loving” from Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay, so its only nomination would be Best Picture (no film has ever ONLY received a Best Picture nomination). I couldn’t see “Manchester by the Sea” WIN three major categories (Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay) and miss a nomination in Best Picture.

    • Jonathan

      Nice research… I completely agree with you – I think it replaces “Loving”

      • Luke McGowan

        Honestly I think it replaces 20th Century Women. I think that’s an Actress/Screenplay player and no further

  • Jonathan

    I couldn’t see “Loving” only receiving nominations for Picture and Lead Actor (Edgerton) but missing for Lead Actress (Negga) and Original Screenplay. I’d say “Manchester by the Sea” is much more likely to make it in Best Picture especially if it’s winning three major categories – Lead Actor (Affleck), Supporting Actress (Williams) and Original Screenplay, according to your predictions.

    • Tony Strak

      La La Land win Best Pictures

  • NotSoAverageJoe

    Dear LORD whoever makes these list suck BALLS at predictions! Lion? A movie with pretty middle of the road reviews is #3? Ahead of Silence, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, ect? Are you retarded? Loving is also getting mediocre reviews its just getting praised for its performances. The 13th is a documentary you moron! It does not even qualify! How high were you when making this absurd list?! Here is a far better one.

    #1.La La Land
    #2.Silence
    #3.Manchester by the Sea
    #4.Arrival
    #5.Nocturnal Animals
    #6.Fences
    #7.Hell or High Water
    #8.Hacksaw Ridge
    #9.Billy Lyn’s Long Halftime Walk
    #10.Sing Street

    • NotSoAverageJoe

      I would be willing to bet all 8 of the nominations this year for best picture will have these ones in there somewhere. I dont know which two will be left out though.

      • Luke McGowan

        I’d like to note that your comments that his predictions “suck balls” but you overlap on 50% of them and the ones you disagree on are probably all in the ballpark anyway. Therefore your comment that all 8 nominations will come from yours holds no more weight than if Clayton said that, since 5 of them look pretty darn safe.

        • Charl Eton

          Luke, if you are not Aussie, you should be. That’s a compliment.

    • Alec Glass

      Oh man I’m gonna have so much fun coming back to this post in January to compare results lol. Just to keep the record straight once these get updated again, Clayton’s predictions at the time of this comment:
      1. La La Land
      2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
      3. Lion
      4. Jackie
      5. Fences
      6. Arrival
      7. 20th Century Women
      8. Moonlight
      9. Loving
      10. Silence

    • Alec Glass

      also, while no documentary to date has been nominated for a Best Picture oscar, they are eligible. #facts
      P.S. I’ll eat my own foot if Sing Street is nominated for Best Picture.

      • Charl Eton

        Please God, let Sing Street get nominated. Alec Glass, if it comes to it, make a doco on a guy who loses a bet… and has to eat his own foot. Now there’s a Best Picture Oscar!!! 🙂

    • Krontsk

      Where those predictions came from? It seems very logical.

  • Jonathan

    1. La La Land (13 nominations)
    2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (7 nominations)
    3. Lion (3 nominations)
    4. Jackie (8 nominations)
    5. Fences (6 nominations)
    6. Arrival (9 nominations)
    7. 20th Century Women (5 nominations)
    8. Moonlight (4 nominations)
    9. Loving (2 nominations)
    10. Silence (5 nominations)

  • Michael

    Nocturnal Animals should be higher up. You’ve got it in for Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Best Supporting Actor…Billy Lynn is way too high now given it’s reception, Lion has less other noms for you, Loving looks more and more like that movie that just comes up nowhere, 13th is brilliant but it’s chances here are way on the outside, and Sully is well…Sully.

  • Jonathan

    It looks like now Billy Lynn isn’t going to land here or Directing. I’d say its best chances are in Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography and Visual Effects.

    • Nihal Bhat

      it wont get a single nomination anywhere. its such a turd and turd dont get squat.

      • BTS

        If The Lone Ranger can get Visual Effects and Hair/Makeup nomination, if the Transformers trilogy can get sound nominations with visual effects nominations for the first and third film, if Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (mixed review) can get a best picture and supporting actor nomination, if Fifty Shades of Grey can get a song nomination, I think Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk can get something, but it won’t be easy.

      • Yeah, like Norbit, The Time Machine, 50 Shades of Grey, Star!, the original Dr. Dolittle…

    • Alec Glass

      ditto, except for visual effects: I think its odds there in the first place were more from a place of being a best picture contender that had some visual effects rather than having genuinely great effects, so without that pedigree stamp to help it along I think it drops out there, given that it would be up against Arrival, The Jungle Book, as well as all the FX-heavy blockbusters, and there really is no stigma against them in this category, even poorly-reviewed ones

  • Luke McGowan

    Okay so let’s start killing Billy Lynn in every category and replacing it with Live By Night 😀

  • Nihal Bhat

    lion at #3? FAIL alert

  • Gabriel Tiller

    Real shame about Billy Lynn. Hopefully it won’t serve as too much of a blot on Mr. Lee’s otherwise excellent career. As for the Oscars, I think you can be reasonably safe in withdrawing it from Best Picture and Director, even if it does find support from tech voters.

  • Dmitry Knipper

    Billy Lynn might be out of serious contention for now, but the general release reviews, the nationwide audience response, and the reaction by the Oscar voters themselves are all still to come and may or may not boost it back up.

    Obviously, the reviews for Silence, once that has been screened (very soon, I hope), will finally get this year’s top-of-the-heap list in clear focus.

    • Alec Glass

      also god damn, when are we gonna get a trailer for it??? Its the only one in the top 20 here that we havent seen any footage from

  • tia maria

    I wouldn’t count Billy Lynn out of BP and BD yet just because of the mixed reviews, we are talking about the Academy here and anything can happen.

    • Alec Glass

      true, and in some ways the academy need not even like it: I wouldnt even be surprised if it wound up as a lone director nod as a way of recognizing that he was really on to something and though he failed, at least it was ambitious and genuinely innovative, even if the product wound up so-so.

  • Alpha Kenny Buddy

    01. La La Land (winner)

    02. Silence
    03. Manchester By the Sea
    04. Jackie
    05. Moonlight
    06. Gold
    07. Allied
    08. Hidden Figures


    09. Hell or High Water

    10. Fences

    11. Sully

    12. 20th Century Women

    13. Patriots Day

    14. Lion

    15. Loving

    Looks like La La Land is the next Best Picture and absolutely nothing is going to stop it. What a boring Best Picture Race so let me guess….
    SAG: La La Land
    Golden Globes C/M: La La Land
    PGA: La La Land
    DGA: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    BAFTA: La La Land
    Oscar: La La Land

    • Jonathan

      I wouldn’t say it’s locked up for SAG Ensemble – If Fences is eligible for that, I’d see that as the winner.

  • RaulSGama

    Passengers, The Jungle Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Live by Night, Billy Lynn’s and Florence F. Jenkins in front of Nocturnal Animals
    in 22..

    This movie received more praise than all these movies together (Even Lion), and the ones that haven’t screened yet like Passengers and Live by
    Night look like popcorn ones..

    If the reason for it’s position in 22 is because it’s “Strange”.. im expecting Mulholland Drive Strange.

    Plus.. Moonlight almost out of the ten is Just sad, hope these two Make it along with Arrival, if AMPAS want changes!

    • Reece

      There’s some praise, but no hype. The reviews were fine, but it’s nothing extraordinary for the Academy to embrace..

      • RaulSGama

        Got it. I do agree with the “not Academy taste” argument, my point is.. from what i’ve read, the reviews were exeptional, it even won the Silver Lion in venice over some movies that look higher on the list, but even from the ones who say it’s not for everyone, or even do not like it, they still really respect the movie. And i don’t expect it to be side by side with La la land and Jackie, which are AMPAS obvious picks, but to be far behind Florence Foster Jenkins and Billy lynn’s which are no “extraordinary” to be embraced..
        Just think critics have the power to keep different movies like this and Moonlight, Arrival strong in the conversation to get recognition!

  • Alec Glass

    Question: Perhaps its early to be asking this question, but how many nominees do you think we’ll have this year Clayton? (or anyone?)

    • Gabriel Tiller

      Probably 8. It’s been that way for a couple of years now. It’s unlikely to decrease and it’s very unlikely to increase.

  • A.S Alfred

    According to recent buzz Billy Lynn’s Long Half Time Walk considered as no more a Best Picture contender. Even the direction nod is heavily doubted. But the movie still will grab attention in nominations in technical category.

  • Nihal Bhat

    affleck’s live by night should be top 5

    • Alec Glass

      no it shouldn’t be. To me it looks more like a Gangster Squad than the next Departed.

      • Nihal Bhat

        but affleck is an amazing director. a trailer is too early to judge.

  • Yvette54

    I seriously think the film “Hell or High Water” will end up high on everyone’s list come January. The script is incredibly tight, the score was excellent, the Director nailed it, and the performances by Jeff Bridges, Ben Foster, and Chris Pine are phenomenal.

    • Nihal Bhat

      it probably wont even get a nomination as it isnt released in the fall

    • Adventurer

      People going lala over La La Land is quite justified really. Academy for the past few years have been known to go over more films with transformative roles than the usual “subtle” drama (discounting Spotlight).

      I’m also betting for a Hell or High Water nod.

  • Reece

    Golden Globe predictions? It’ll be a tight race for Motion Picture – Drama.

    Motian Picture – Comedy or Musical is gonna be La La Land and 4 other randoms…

    • Jonathan

      Best Comedy predictions:

      1. La La Land
      2. 20th Century Women
      3. Florence Foster Jenkins
      4. Rules Don’t Apply
      5. The Comedian

      Best Drama predictions:
      1. Fences
      2. Silence
      3. Lion
      4. Jackie
      5. Arrival

  • Nihal Bhat

    lion at #4. whos smoking hope-ium?

  • Jonathan

    Films predicted ordered in amount of nominations:

    1. La La Land (12 nominations, 6 wins)
    2. Arrival (11 nominations, 2 wins)
    3. Jackie (9 nominations, 1 win)
    4. Silence (7 nominations, 1 win)
    5. Fences (5 nominations, 2 wins)
    6. Moonlight (5 nominations, 0 wins)
    7. Manchester by the Sea (4 nominations, 2 wins)
    8. Hidden Figures (3 nominations, 0 wins)
    9. Lion (3 nominations, 0 wins)
    10. Loving (3 nominations, 0 wins)

  • Adventurer

    I hope the top 10 nominees are ordered randomly here, because Lion at #4 over pics like Jackie, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight is just hilarious.

  • Nihal Bhat

    1. Silence
    2. Fences
    3. La La Land
    4. Arrival
    5. Moonlight
    6. Jackie
    7. Hidden Figures
    8. Manchester by the Sea
    9. Loving
    10. Live by Night

  • Damian Pietrzak

    These predictions makes a lot of sense. One thing i disagree is your Sully’s placement. Its definately getting nominated. Alongside Lion is the only oscar bait in play this year. And it made 120M domestic + WB has fantastic streak in BP, i think they always getting in at least 1 movie since 2008 or something like that

    • Reece

      every year since 2003, with the exception of only 2002. 😉

  • Reece

    Lion’s Best Picture nomination will depend on the box office. The critical and early reviews are “positive”.. positive enough.. but I feel that it’s going to come across as dry, like “been there, done that.” (slumdog millionare much?)

  • ScarlettMi

    Of the movies I’ve seen so far this year, I feel like “Moonlight” and “Manchester by the Sea” are definitely going to get nominated for Best Picture.

    If I got to choose the nominees, I’d have “The Handmaiden” on the list as well, but I feel like it’s a little too unusual for the Academy. (I’d love to be wrong on that.) With it not being up for Foreign Language Film, I think I’ll have to cross my fingers for at least Costume Design.

    • TC_94

      Agreed. Having seen almost all the movies that could get nominated, Moonlight and Manchester by the sea are my top 2.. with Moonlight deserving to win Best Picture this year, what a great movie..

  • Kian

    Best Picture
    (Updated: November 03, 2016)

    The Academy proved to be a sucker for epic drama/historical drama so I think SIlence will get this one, plus it’s a Scorsese film so there you go. However, La La Land is one far too exceptional musical with original songs and on point chemistry between the leads, therefore this category belongs to “Silence vs. La La Land”.

    I also think they will just nominate 9 films this year because adding another one is just so cliche of them (sarcasm). 2011-2013 has 9 Best Picture nominees so, i think it’s positively happening.

    1. Silence
    2. La La Land
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. Moonlight
    5. Fences
    6. Arrival
    7. Jackie
    8. Live By Night
    9. Loving
    —————
    10. 20th Century Women / Lion

    • Dmitry Knipper

      This would suit me as Silence and La La Land are my two most anticipated films for this year. It’s rare that I’m in sync with the Academy Awards. Usually, I’m complaining that they’re ignoring my favorites of the year. 🙂

    • TC_94

      Nah, the reactions for Silence weren’t all positive and I think the hype behind La La Land is exaggerated..I liked it, don’t get me wrong, but wasn’t THAT impressed. Imo there are better movies this year like Manchester by the sea and Moonlight, I personally think Moonlight is a masterpiece and it should win Best Picture..important, powerful movie that swept the NYCC and LAFCA awards (winning Best Picture there, and the LAFCA predicted Best Picture to Spotlight last year).

    • michaeldal65

      No way will Silence get it. Its a big, lumbering historical epic that will draw a limited audience. No chance. Even the powers-that-be finally get that this genre doesn’t play to wide audiences.

  • Reece

    I really hope Captain Fantastic starts to campaign hard, it was a really beautiful film! I dont think it will land anywhere tho

  • Greg

    You should put Arrival higher. It’s one of the best reviewed film of the year (93% on Rotten Tomatoes with an average of 8,4/10 and a 82 score on Metacritic indicating “Universal acclaim”) and A LOT of critics fall in love with this movie.

  • Krontsk

    Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge is going to be much higher I think.

  • Good luck sitting Jackie out. It doesn’t matter if the film is artsier than the average Oscar-baiting biopic; its quality and timeliness will ensure it’ll remain in the conversation until the end.

  • notafanboy

    Replace 20th Century Women (no chance) with Jackie, and you’ll have a good list. I’ve been calling a Sully BP nom for awhile now— huge box office numbers, and The Academy loves Clint.

  • Reece

    Does anyone else see Lion landing nowhere? I cant imagine Lion making a huge impact in this year’s awards..

  • Reece

    I see the 13th ranked as #26. It was a solid documentary, but for it to be that high, it would have to be the best documentary of the decade…

  • Jonathan

    Well Paramount has now put up screenings for “Silence” so there will be no worries about it being screened late.

  • Bryce

    Alright, you might think my list is a joke, but here me out on a couple of then. The predictions are in ABC order, the winner will be below them all.

    Arrival
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Loving
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Passengers (This could go either way, but this is from the guy who did Imitation Game and it also has a great cast)
    Rogue One (Here me out, I know it is a syfy film, well, a Star Wars film in general. This Star Wars film is different from the previous films. It is taking a darker approach and is not necessarily a fun action movie like Force Awakens, it is a war movie. Saving Private Ryan in space so-to-speak. The academy loves war films. Apocalypse Now, Saving Private Ryan, American Sniper, all great war films that were nominated, this, if it is a fantastic movie, could get nominated. For those who stuck with this, thank you).
    Silence

    I honestly think the 3 films with the best chance of winning are Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, or Silence. Either a come back will be completed, a newer director gets shone in the spotlight, or the veteran comes back with a bang. I hope the comback happens, and that is what I think will happen. Hacksaw Ridge wins best picture and director. Garfield gets nominated for best actor. Hacksaw Ridge gets nominated for 6 Academy Awards and wins 3, maybe 4 (depends if the count it as adapted or original).

    • Jonathan

      “Hacksaw Ridge” might not even be nominated, let alone win.

    • Nikhil Nandu

      I would bet my foot that Rouge One does not get a Best Picture nomination. Honestly, just from what I have seen, I even think it will have a hard time in the bellow-the-line categories competing with ‘The Jungle Book,’ ‘Fantastic Beasts,’ and ‘Passengers’. However, with respect to your comments on ‘Hacksaw Ridge,’ I do think that people are seriously underrating it (granted the box office performance really dashed my confidence in its success, movies like American Sniper and Saving Private Ryan benefited strongly from significant box office returns that Hacksaw does not even come close to). I definitely do not have the same amount of enthusiasm that you do for Hacksaw. I really do not see it actually winning anything other than Sound Editing and maybe Mixing, but I currently do have it picking up a best picture nomination – with a possible Garfield nomination if Silence does not cancel him out. I thought it was a phenomenal film. I am definitely hoping it picks up multiple nominations if not a few wins, but I think anything more would be overly optimistic.

      • Bryce

        I mainly think Hacksaw Ridge because, looming at the reviews, it is one of the best reviewed movies of the year. La La Land is the best reviewed, but, the Academy, since I have been watching, always snubs musicals that actually deserve the nomination or win.

        To add on Rogue One, there have been interviews stating things along the lines that it will have a feel of a WWII film, along the lines of Hacksaw Ridge. It isn’t a typical Star Wars movie. They even took out the iconic opening credits. It isn’t a typical Star Wars film, that is why I think it could be added. Now, I also would have to put it up there as a #9 slot, and the academy no ally doesn’t do 10 nominations like they can do. They always do 7 or 8. Passengers and Rogue One follow as the two that could be 9 academy 10.

      • Bryce

        I want to edit, not the list, I am still sticking to it, but my Rogue One comment.

        Rogue one early reactions have hit the Web and from the looks of it, it is overwhelmingly positive. I am talking about people saying it is the nest Star Wars film since Empire Strikes Back, a few even saying it is the best Star Wars film. Full reviews have yet to be released, but it is looking like Rogue One has a possibility, just like Force Awakens did last year. Other notable comments were praising acting from Felicity Jones, Donnie Yen, and Allan Tudyk. Also it is praising Cinematography, Screenplay, Visual aspect (effects, sound, editing, etc) and also praising the directing. I see this as a top ten, once again because the academy doesn’t take too kindly to big budget films anymore, but this has a chance.

        • Alec Glass

          It would be a pretty significant shocker, but if it does it’ll have to nab a PGA nod. Which it could very well do, but even after that it’s an outside shot.

    • oscarstan

      Passengers looks horrendous. No chance. It’s La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester vying for Best Picture.

      • TC_94

        Horrendous? It looks amazing and the script was great.. Plus we haven’t seen it yet, I think Passengers could surprise a lot of people and get in. After all it’s directed by Imitation Game’s Oscar nominee Morten Tyldum and stars Oscar darling Jennifer Lawrence. So, we will see. It could get nominated but personally I think Moonlight will or should win Best Picture.

    • michaeldal65

      No way will Hacksaw Ridge (definitely not in any of the top categories and apart from that, its simply not good enough) or Silence win. La La Land and Moonlight will battle it out.

  • This post will most likely get edited as the weeks go by leading up to the ceremony, but here it is:

    1. Silence
    2. La La Land
    3. Moonlight
    4. Fences
    5. Hell or High Water
    6. Jackie
    7. Eye in the Sky
    8. Manchester by the Sea
    9. Arrival
    10. Hacksaw Ridge

    And as a side note, I REALLY REALLY hope that Zootopia somehow makes it in.

    • Jonathan

      Eye in the Sky and Hell or High Water – not happening.

      • You never know; people also didn’t think Mad Max: Fury Road and The Grand Budapest Hotel would get as much praise as they did.

        • Jonathan

          True, I guess we will see when the guilds nominations start coming in.

  • Nikhil Nandu

    I try to avoid making these until I have seen the films myself, but could not resist the temptation. For now I have:

    1. Fences (strong acting is the takeaway, and it’s clear that it lets the actors be the main thing on display, lock)
    2. La La Land (front runner, lock)
    3. Silence (Scorsese and the production value, lock)
    4. Moonlight (lock)
    ——————————————————————————————————————————–
    5. Manchester by the Sea (same as Fences, but less flashy, and it will definitely get the screenplay nomination)
    6. Lion (traditional tearjerker + Weinstein Campaign)
    ——————————————————————————————————————————–
    7. Arrival (strong box office and it stands out among the crowd but could easily see it getting snubbed)
    8. Hacksaw Ridge (some powerful stuff but Gibson hurts it and box office not as strong as it needed it to be)
    9. Jackie (Portman is a lock, could see this getting snubbed but cleaning up in makeup, costume, etc.)
    10. Sully (solid movie, strong box office, plays it safe)

    Snubs: Loving (snore), Hidden Figures (I never really considered this a player but others do)

    • Dmitry Knipper

      Some very good reasoning here. Do you have any thoughts on 20th Century Women, Paterson and Live By Night?

      • Nikhil Nandu

        Thanks. And I think 20th Century Women and Paterson will go the same way of Hidden Figures, in that I just do not see them as big enough to actually make it. Annette Bening will almost definitely get nominated for actress. Also, 20th Century will be a Golden Globe Player in the Best Comedy category, but every year there are a few films that rally in those categories that never really make it to the Oscars, and I sense that this will happen for 20th Century- at least for its Best Picture prospects. As for Live By Night, I really want the movie to do well, but I get the feeling it will probably just be more of an entertainment piece than anything. Also, there is a review embargo on it, which to some may be cause for worry.

        • michaeldal65

          Sorry, nothing “almost definitely” about Bening this year. She’s an absolute lock, along with Adams and Stone and if they have any taste, Huppert. She’s long overdue for a nod.

  • Demetra

    Here’s what’s actually gonna happen:

    1. La La Land
    2. Fences
    3. Silence
    4. Manchester by the Sea
    5. Arrival
    6. Jackie
    7. Moonlight
    8. Hell or High Water
    9. 20th Century Women
    10. Loving

    • Alec Glass

      Not a bad list overall but moonlight below Jackie and Arrival is insane, and Live by Night is def not happening. Good call on Hell or High Water though I think, it seems people either think it’s somewhere around 5 or 6 which to me seems too high, or not on there at all, 8 seems more accurate.

      • TC_94

        All this hype for La La Land (which I have seen and like) that I don’t get really.. It’s a good movie but there are better movies this year like Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.. Personally I think Moonlight is a masterpiece and it should win Best Picture. Anyway, I think there will be 8 slots.

  • michaeldal65

    Hacksaw Ridge may one of the best reviewed films of the year but its also one of the dullest and easily the most unoriginal. Everything leading to that very bloody battle is so cliched its beyond a joke and the overblown worship at the end is laughable. Its an incredible and inspiring true story, no doubt, but a great film? Nah….

  • michaeldal65

    Hacksaw Ridge may be one of the best reviewed films of the year but its also one of the dullest and easily the most unoriginal. Everything leading to that very bloody battle is so cliched its beyond a joke and the overblown worship at the end is laughable. Its an incredible and inspiring true story, no doubt, but a great film? Nah….

  • rockyguy

    Hidden figures seems come and go out of front runner. It seems like only film out of the front runners that has not had any reviews come out . It could end up like Billy lyn

  • Reece

    What happened to the old format, with the interactive photos. I thought that looked much cooler!

    • Alec Glass

      It was replaced with this early in the season as a “temporary measure” for early predictions so that they could be updated more frequently more easily but it seems that this has become the new MO by means of inertia

  • Gabriel Tiller

    Early word on Silence v. positive for the most part.

    • Nikhil Nandu

      Do you have a source? I was looking for word on Silence, but struggling to find anything of note.

      • Reece

        NBR, and some early “reviews” (embargoed so little twitter notes)

  • rockyguy

    hidden figures got snubbed for best piocture in critics choice but get best acting ensemble and best supporting actress i feel best supporting actress nom will be only nom it gets

  • rockyguy

    hell and high water and hackshaw seems like front runner now

  • rockyguy

    is variety more accurate then this website becuase it does not think arrival hidden figures is a front runner and thinks hackshaw and hell or high water have a big shot

  • Krontsk

    Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge surprisingly goes up and up and up.

  • TC_94

    1. Moonlight (should win Best Picture imo, masterpiece)
    2. Fences
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. La La Land
    5. Jackie
    6. Passengers (to be seen, I have high hopes though: the script was great and it looks amazing + Jennifer Lawrence)
    7. Hell or High Water
    8. Silence or Arrival

  • rockyguy

    i guess hidden is no longer front runner

  • I’d swap Loving for Hell or High Water.

  • C.

    I have seen almost all the films for predicted Oscars and Top tier contenders (16 of 20 total) and I will be seeing Silence and Hidden Figures in a screening this week. I will most likely see all of the first 20 films by the end of the week, and have seen most of the films on this whole list. I can also confirm which movies will and will not be part of upcoming award season. What do you mean by pushed back to 2017? As far as awards season or release date? I can also give you my top 10 list for those who are interested.

    • Reece

      Yes master

      • Reece

        And “pushed back to 2017” was a note for the beginning of the year, for films at the time which we weren’t sure if they would get a 2016 or 2017 release

      • C.

        Okay i will post my list this weekend after I watch the final movies.

  • Daniel Motta

    Here are my predictions:

    If only eight:
    1. La La Land
    2. Fences
    3. Moonlight
    4. Manchester By The Sea
    5. Silence
    6. Arrival
    7. Lion
    8. Loving

    If 10:
    9. Sully
    10. Hacksaw Ridge

  • rockyguy

    c so tell me is hidden or silence oscar worthy

    • C.

      Read my above post.

  • C.

    I am seeing Hidden Figures tonight. I will post my list Sunday after I submitted my votes for SAG nom comm. Silence was a complete disappointment. Good Production, good acting, but the plot and the script was awful. It dragged on for almost 3 hours. So many people were uncomfortable with the film. It has a target audience of very small group of people (People who care about Christianity in Japan back in the 1600s).I felt no connection to the film whatsoever. I think it’s going to flop in the box office. There are way too many other films that outshine it in all areas. Don’t even put it on top ten in my opinion.

  • oscarstan

    Loving is done for.

  • C.

    Hidden figures was absolutely incredible. It deserves a nomination hands down.

  • rockyguy

    Hidden has gotten great reviews so looks good

  • rockyguy

    c did u watch hidden what do u think

  • C.

    Hidden Figures was amazing. It deserves a nomination hands down.

  • rockyguy

    I do think hidden will get best picture nom since it got snubbed for golden globe and critics award

    • C.

      It just got nominated for best picture in SAG awards

  • theatregeek

    Dude, Hell or High Water is in the top 6 now. It has shown up everywhere. Even the Globes, which normally do not go for this type of film. If you keep it at 11, you’ll regret it when the nominations come out! 😉

  • Reece

    Collateral Beauty still on the list lol, he must not have noticed…

  • Reece

    I also feel like nothing really points towards Loving getting a nomination, it’s shown up almost nowhere except for acting nods.. :

    • It was a similar situation with “Room”

      • Reece

        But Room landed best picture at the globes (and screenplay(?))

        • It did, indeed. Clayton is off in his analogy.

    • oscarstan

      No one feels strongly toward “Loving”. It’s a nice movie, but that’s all. Doubt it will get a nomination.

  • Robby Poffenberger

    You have Captain Fantastic at 40, after it got SAG ensemble and you’re predicting it in screenplay.

    For the record, if it got screenplay, that would be my favorite nomination of Oscar morning.

  • oscarstan

    Things are looking really good for Manchester by the Sea. It got the most nominations from SAG (4) while the current Oscar Best Picture frontrunner La La Land failed to pick up an ensemble nomination. And now after the Academy’s recent announcement, it doesn’t have to compete with Moonlight for Best Original Screenplay, and will probably pick up an easy win in that category. Casey Affleck will undoubtedly win Best Actor as well. If Michelle Williams can pull off an upset and beat out Viola for Best Supporting Actress, I think Manchester has an extremely good chance of winning Best Picture.

  • Tee

    1. La La Land
    2. Moonlight
    3. Fences
    4. Manchester by the Sea
    5. Silence
    6. Hacksaw Ridge
    7. Lion
    If they go above seven:
    8. Hidden Figures
    9. Hell or High Water
    10. Nocturnal Animals

  • C.

    Ive seen all of these movies. Here is my take on how things will go.

    1. Manchester by the Sea
    2. Moonlight
    3. Fences
    4. La La Land
    5. Hidden Figures
    6. Jackie
    7. Hacksaw Ridge
    8. Hell or High Water
    9. Arrival
    10. Silence / Captain Fantastic

  • John Edward Kilberg

    La La Land doesn’t need best ensemble nomination from SAG when the film is truly between two people. Almost as much as a film like Before Midnight, and that series. Moonlight most definitely deserves the SAG ensemble nomination and award, but Best Picture – La La Land will most likely win.

    • AyeAye

      Finally someone who has good senses. Exactly! La La Land has two actors, and every other people just disappear behind the scenes. Why are people making a big deal out of it not getting an ensemble nod? Did they expect it to? Because if they did, it was a stupid expectation.

  • rockyguy

    C hidden got snubbed for best picture critics choice and golden globe how do u see it getting a best picture nom. Also tell me is costner good in it .

  • Tobey

    dont understand loving hype. I watched the film and found the actors quite boring and I felt the dialogue was boring too. Jackie deserves to be up there and arrival I think should be higher

  • rockyguy

    variety thinks hidden is front runner. i do not see hidden getting nod. it might just miss the mark.

  • Larry Tate

    Deadpool is the best picture.

    • lyubohar

      Sure, if you’re 12…

      • Larry Tate

        You need to STFU until you’ve seen it.

        • lyubohar

          Yep, definitely 12.

          (Plot twist: I did see it).

          • Larry Tate

            Then you’re an imbecile.

            • lyubohar

              That’s certainly one of the possibilities. But that would mean the hundreds of qualified jury members and critics that make such a list by voting for movies in all the movie festivals in 2016, should be imbeciles too. Now that’s not very likely, isn’t it? Your ego won’t like it, but I am sure you see where this is going…

              • Larry Tate

                The only reason that it is not nominated is because it is an R-rated comedy. That doesn’t change the fact that it is the best picture of the year… with the best director of the year… with the best screenplay of the year. Perhaps in many years.

                • lyubohar

                  Sure, if you’re 12…

                  • Larry Tate

                    Imbecile.

                    • You really are 12, aren’t you?

      • Joshua Black

        See above

      • Wraithy2773

        The reason I think Deadpool has a decent chance of getting a nomination?

        Well, it’s arguably the best of the Blockbuster-style films. But it also has a surprising amount of depth to it, particularly with the unconventional but still endearing relationship between Wade and Vanessa.

        And, with the move to “Up to 10” nominations for Best Picture? One genre/crowd pleasing film always seems to make the list. Oh, sure, the big prize will always go to the story about horrific abuse, the horrors of mankind, unbearable tragedy or how awesome Hollywood is, but with the amount of recognition Deadpool’s already gotten?

        It’s not outside the realm of possibility that it makes a lot of people’s list as their last choice, just in a “Oh, yeah, that film, that was a fun one, let’s balance out the artsy dour” sense..

        • lyubohar

          I didn’t find any depth by my measures. Depth for a Marvel-style movie – maybe, but that’s not saying much really. Probably for people whose movie menu consists mainly of flicks with explosions, I can see how this one may come as some sort of delicatesse. But it’s not, really. And I also didn’t find it very funny…Annoying is what comes to mind. Just my stupid opinion, of course, but I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with someone as grown-ups. 🙂

          • Wraithy2773

            On the comedy front? Well, I found it hilarious, but comedy’s one of the most subjective things in art, sometimes it works, sometimes it falls flat, a lot of it depends on the person watching it. No biggie :).

            The thing about Deadpool, beyond the explosions and dick jokes, is that relationship between the leads. They’re… very clearly interested in a physical relationship (sex montage!), but the cancer curveball hits and their reactions are… kinda perfect. She wants to fight it and hold onto him for as long as possible, he wants to break it off quickly for her sake, just die so she remembers the him that he’s proud of, not the wasted away, bedridden mess that he’s terrified of.

            Oh, sure, it doesn’t exactly have a lot of time to work, the development of this serious, sober look at what people battle with cancer and the lengths they’ll go to to fight it fighting for screentime with the fight scenes, but there’s still a lot power in the Wade Wilson scenes.

          • Larry Tate

            “I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with someone as grown-ups.” If that is the case then you might want to refrain from characterizing people as childish by referring to them as 12 years olds.

            • lyubohar

              Fair enough, I was just trying to be funny. 🙂 In my defense the original comment to which I replied wasn’t very mature to begin with.

      • Larry Tate

        I didn’t realize that the membership of the WGA was so full of 12 year olds.
        “Superhero film Deadpool has received a surprise nomination from the Writers Guild of America (WGA) ahead of its annual awards on 19 February. The X-Men spin-off, starring Ryan Reynolds, is one of five films up for the guild’s adapted screenplay prize.”

    • Joshua Black

      It was a very well done film with an excellent lead performance. It was also somewhat progressively stylized; something people on here thinks is what awards are for. It was also highly entertaining which is what i think awards should be for. However, this sight is about what will win first and foremost and what should win a distant second. You are entitled to your opinion. Insulting you for your opinion is the only thing i see a 12 year old doing.

  • rockyguy

    c why do u think hidden is front runner

  • Satin

    Would love to see Arrival win.

    • Reece

      sadly it won’t, it’s barely securing the nomination :

  • Mark Schultz

    MBTS seemed boring to me. Moonlight would be my pick as of now. La La Land won’t be in theaters near me til January.

  • MrScreenAddict

    If La La Land doesn’t break the SAG stat, no movie ever will. That’s why I hope it does, otherwise the Oscars will forever be predictable and boring. (Well, that and because La La Land is my favorite movie of the year.)

    • JonRalphs

      I mean La La Land is great, but the same can be said for Moonlight.

      • MrScreenAddict

        No it can’t, because Moonlight was nominated for the SAG ensemble award. If it wins BP, nothing will change stats-wise.

    • AyeAye

      La La Land lacks a good ensemble, so why should it be nominated for the ensemble category? It wasn’t snubbed, it just didn’t deserve the nomination. Ensemble is not equivalent to Best Picture.

  • Joshua Black

    I feel like there is a lot of wiggle room in best picture for the top 19 or so. Fences and Silence might be in a bit of trouble, whereas Jackie seems to be picking up some steam and hell or high water is probably close to even the fifth or sixth slot.

  • Alex German

    What is making you so sure about Silence? We can’t use any precursors to determine how people responded to it, so are you using your own opinion, gut instinct, talk from voting members, or the fact that it’s Scorsese?

  • rockyguy

    Silence has been snubbed for most of the awards i do not think its front runner

    • Alex German

      I think most of the other voting bodies haven’t seen it yet. I could be wrong though

    • But who says it’s a frontrunner?

    • michaeldal65

      And it shouldn’t be. If Oscar looks closely he’ll see two Very Good supporting performances (Ogata and Asano) and some stunnning cinematography. Little else. BUT, this is a passion project by an oft-nominated director so out of respect, it’ll probably end up in the lineup…

  • 22cinema11

    I’m completely rooting for „La La Land“, but I don’t think it’ll win – for the same reason why I couldn’t imagine “The Revenant” winning BP this year: Because of the voting system they use at the Oscars. I don’t think preferential balloting favors that “love-or-hate” kind of movie (“The Revenant”: long, dark and brutal, “La La Land”: a quirky musical) “La La Land” will get a lot of #1 votes, but it could get many #8 or #9 votes as well from people who don’t like musicals or who tend to opt for hard-boiled stuff like “American Sniper” or MMFR (they’ll likely go for “Hacksaw Ridge” or “Hell Or High Water”). On the other hand, “Hacksaw Ridge” or HOHW will end up at the bottom of other ballots (which maybe favor “La La Land”). So “Moonlight” or “Manchester by the Sea” could be some kind of consensus choice with some #1 votes, but with a lot of #2 and #3 votes that’ll be important to win. (Unless one movie takes enough #1 votes in the first place, but that seems very unlikely.) But we have to wait for the precursors (especially PGA which has been very predictive in recent years – apart from picking “The Big Short” this year – and which uses preferential balloting as well).

    • Alex German

      I also want a La La land win, but I agree that those two could get a win based on the voting system

  • Ian Lane

    Moonlight goes from 1 to 3? NO!

  • C.

    Good Manchester by the Sea deserves number 1.

  • Reece

    Hacksaw Ridge is a tough call. The Academy has many Jewish people in it, are they willing to forgive Gibson? If they do, do you think Vince Vaughn could be a surprise supporting actor nominee? They seem to be pushing for it..

    • 22cinema11

      I think a nomination for Vaughn is very unlikely. The reviews for the supporting cast in “Hacksaw Ridge” were not that good so it would be a huge surprise. (And I think apart from Andrew Garfield no actor from “Hacksaw Ridge” got any precursor support thus far.) But nobody knows – maybe it’s time for such a real surprise (no one predicted Tom Hardy to get in over Idris Elba this year …)

      • Bryce

        Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington both did great (shockingly), but you forgot about Hugo Weaving. He did a fantastic job. I never expected Vaughn or Worthington to get a nomination, but Weaving has a chance.

  • Alfred

    Accurate list but you forgot the Irish Sing Street (it is nominated for golden globe film and therefore it plays high) and the auteur’s Jarmusch film “Paterson”.

    • Bryce

      I never noticed it was nominated. That is my favorite film of the year too and I didn’t notice.

  • michaeldal65

    Its a shame PATERSON isn’t as widely seen as some of these Oscar-baiting flicks. It is an absolutely beautiful film, perfectly cast and written, and Jarmusch’s best work since MYSTERY TRAIN.

  • Nick Fraser

    I saw Manchester today, it’d be a unique but not unbelievable choice for them. Could see it winning if they pick up one of the main precursor BP awards.

  • Bryce

    Alright, I am going to do my finalized list. I have done a few, but I have finally saw most of these movies (Silence and Fences may be the only ones I haven’t seen), but, in ABC order, here are my predictions.

    Arrival
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Loving
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Rogue One
    Silence

    You will disagree with Rogue One and I get that, but that is #10 for me (I think they will go up to 8 this year, but I still did 10). Since I finally saw most of these films (and being saddened that Sing Street is not going to get nominated, evwn though it is my faborite film if the year, but would be a nice surprise if it did) I think ny secind favorite film of the year, La La Land, will win it this year, even though I would love to see a Mel Gibson come back.

    • Reece

      No possible way that Rogue One will get in. At all.

      There’s no easy way to say it.. :

      • Bryce

        That’s why it is a #10 spot. I also had Rogue One in the top 10 since the beginning of 2016 seeing how different it was to previous Star Wars films.

        • Matteo Bordignon

          For me Rogue One has a chance.

    • claude laval

      you didn’t see Fences and Silence but you put them in the top 10. Did I missed something here?

  • Kian

    First and foremost, can AMPAS please stop fucking us with only 8 or 9 nominations. I mean for crying out loud, can they just justify it with 10 please. This is The Blind Side and Extremely Loud’s fault!

    1. La La Land
    2. Moonlight
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. Silence
    5. Fences
    6. Arrival
    7. Hell or High Water
    8. Hacksaw Ridge
    9. Lion

    Oh well, if it’ll happen then
    10. Jackie / Hidden Figures / or a surprise upset like Collateral Beauty (nope, just kidding hahaha)

    La La Land is the clear winner for me.

    • 22cinema11

      Very good list! At the moment (give or take “Lion” – not quite sure how the Academy reacts to that kind of tear-jerking movie) that’s my prediction as well with “Hidden Figures” or probably “Jackie” or “Sully” as the potential #9 or #10 (if there are more than 8 BP nominees).

  • Alfred

    I think that this year is gonna have a top 10 instead of 8 or 9. Many times in the past Academy Awards praised films (independent or foreign films mainly) that didn’t have any praise in Critics circle -Life is beautiful for example-. Thus, I believe the top 10 will come from these 20 films: La La Land, Manchester by the sea, Moonlight, Hell or high water, Fences, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Silence, Loving, Sully, Hidden Figures, Jackie, 20th century women, Nocturnal Animals, Birth of a nation (shame on the controversy, I don’t care about the personal life of an artist, the film itself is great), Captain Fantastic and three films that are gonna shock you but yeah I believe in miracles: I, Daniel Blake, Paterson (someday these 2 auteurs should be praised for being overlooked so many times) and Sing street (it is overlooked only for being Irish and not American or British but Golden Globes praised it).

  • Andrew

    Personally, I want this year to be different from the past Award ceremonies. A positive is there is definitely more diversity with award nominations this year, compared to last year. Films I want to see up for Best Picture are:
    Arrival
    Sully
    Hell or High Water
    Moonlight
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Lion
    Silence

    I don’t want to see Fences up for a nomination because even though it had fantastic acting, the film altogether wasn’t so impressive. I think Sully was an overlooked film because of its short run time and neat story telling. It was clever, smart, and a great movie. I also want Hell or High Water to get a nomination. Definitely one of the more under-seen films this year. For acting, Ben Foster deserves a supporting actor nod. Although I love Jeff Bridges, I think Foster had more of a menacing demeanor and interesting character than Bridges did. Mahershala Ali deserves to win for Moonlight. For Best Actor I’d like to see Affleck take home the award, despite all of the controversy surrounding him. I wouldn’t be surprised though if Denzel won the award instead. I also want to see Naomie Harris win for Moonlight, but think it will go to Viola Davis. I also think Natalie Portman should win for her performance in Jackie. The movie probably won’t be nominated but she’s a surefire nomination. The Best Director award should go to Damien Chazelle or Barry Jenkins who will both definitely be nominated. Martin Scorsese should get a nod for director since Silence has been a passion project of his for so long. The film’s trailer also looks stunning. My biggest problem this year is La La Land. I loved this film but would be very dissapointed to see it win Best Picture. I want Emma Stone to get an award nomination but I don’t want Ryan Gosling to. I think it deserves all of its technical praise including its fantastic score, but if it won Best Picture, it would become a completely different film. Best Picture should go to Moonlight, or Manchester by the Sea. La La Land was soooo good, but doesn’t deserve Best Picture. Denis Villevenue also deserves a Best Director nod for Arrival, and Amy Adams for actress. Let’s also see a little Nocturnal Animals love with some supporting actor nods!

  • AyeAye

    For the several past years, most of the Best Picture winners have been Oscar Baits (Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, and so on), I don’t necessarily see this year being any different (as Manchester by the Sea doesn’t pass for a typical Oscar bait), hence at this moment I’ll safely cast my vote on Moonlight or La La Land. Here’s my list:

    1. Arrival
    2. MBtS
    3. La La land
    4. Moonlight
    5. Silence
    6. Hell or High Water
    7. Lion
    8. Hacksaw Ridge
    9. Fences

    But since I’m 100% sure Moonlight will take Adapted Screenplay, it’ll take Best Picture over La La Land. It’s gonna be a repeat of the 2013 show where 12 Years a Slave took Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay & Supporting Actress (Supporting Actor in this case).

    Other predictions – MBtS will take Best Director, Original Screenplay and Actor, La La Land will get Film Editing, Art Direction and the audio awards, Moonlight will take Best Supporting Actor (and Adapted Screenplay), Fences will only take Supporting Actress, either Silence or Arrival will take Best Cinematography, and Arrival or Jackie will take Best Actress. Jackie’s gonna take Costume Design as well.

  • A Parent

    Captain Fantastic

  • Terry

    I’m going with “LION”.

  • Alfred

    My final prediction nominees (I believe it’s gonna be a top 10 and not 8 nor 9): “La La Land”, “Manchester by the sea”, “Moonlight”, “Hell or High Water”, “Fences”, “Arrival”, “Hacksaw Ridge”, “Lion”, “Silence” (these 9 are in most of prediction sites) and the last one which will leave us in awe: “Ι, Daniel Blake”. Because it’s a humanitarian masterpiece, it doesn’t have the obstacle of being foreign language (there have been so many British films nominated and not this one?), maybe Academy will finally want to praise the king of British social realism cinema but mainly because I believe in miracles and surprises from everywhere that weren’t in any critics circle awards (don’t forget Life is Beautiful, Z, Cries and whispers, The emigrants and his compatriot Mike Leigh who shares similar thematically films). “Loving”, “Hidden figures” and “Sully” who fight so close won’t place.

  • Bryce

    So, I gave my finalized list a week or two ago, but I must say, after rewatching several of the Oscar attending films, I may have to say Sing Street has a chance at being nominated.

    • Alfred

      Couldn’t agree more. I keep on writing here. Golden Globes weren’t stupid to nominate it in film category (comedy/musical) putting out so many Academic American safe choices.

      • Bryce

        That’s what I thought as well! It is still one of the highest reviewed films of the year, being nominated for quite a few awards outside the GG, and the fact that it is a love letter to old school punk-rock.

        • Alfred

          Because of all these you’re mentioning even if it won’t hit a nominee here (if it’s a top 10 it has possibilities), it has possibilities in original screenplay category. The GG nomination gives edge to this film and in a category such as original screenplay that loves many times witty independent comedies/musical it may land there.

  • DaKardii

    My prediction so far (I will update it when BAFTA nominations are announced)

    -Hacksaw Ridge
    -Hell or High Water
    -La La Land
    -Lion
    -Manchester by the Sea
    -Moonlight

    The other three are going to come from the following list: Arrival, Deadpool, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Loving, Sing Street, Sully, and 20th Century Women.

    • Adventurer

      The day Academy considers Deadpool for Best Picture will be the day pigs will grow wings. lol It’s simply not gonna happen.

      • DaKardii

        The only reason why I put Deadpool is because it was nominated at the Golden Globes.

        • Reece

          and pga AND wga!? HOLY COW!!

          • Adventurer

            PGA and WGA doesn’t award films but the producer/writers. GG has two categories with 5 nominees each, it was basically spot filling there. Even 20th Century Women has low chances of appearance in BP at the Academy awards.

  • jmlatinsir

    Maybe they’ll be a tie for best picture at the Oscars and “Hidden Fences” will win.

    • Adventurer

      That’s never gonna happen. Hidden Figure and Fences both have lukewarm reception compared to MBtS, La La Land & Moonlight.

    • DaKardii

      Not gonna happen. Fences may have a chance, but it’s small. And I’d be shocked if Hidden Figures was even nominated.

  • Matteo Bordignon

    My predictions, top 10

    1) La la land
    2) Moonlight
    3) Manchester by the sea
    4) Arrival
    5) Silence
    6) Hacksaw Ridge
    7)Hidden figures
    8) Lion
    9) Hell or high water

    and 10) Fences – Captain Fantastic – Rogue One

    I think (and hope) that Rogue One is nominated because it presents Star Wars from a new point of view…it is a successful experiment. Some sequences are directed masterfully ( Death Star’s first shot) and the combination cinematography-visual effects is great.

    • DaKardii

      1) It’s only going to be nine nominees.

      2) For your top nine, I agree with all of them (not necessarily in order), except for Silence and Hidden Figures, which I believe will be snubbed. As for your wild card number 10s, the only one I can see being nominated in a wild card scenario is Fences. Captain Fantastic and Rogue One are not gonna happen.

      • Bryce

        Actually, I can see one of those odd, why not nominate, it’s not like it’ll win, kind of films. It’ll either be Sing Street, Deadpool, or Rogue One.

  • Adventurer

    Academy and Globes disagree a lot over Best Picture wins, so are the Moonlight/La La Land wins a sign about who’s gonna get the upperhand at the Academy awards? Now Moonlight won Best Drama, I’m irked more than ever about this category this season. Does MBtS has a chance to win? The preferential ballot might work in its favour. Here are my top 8 after the Globes (will update after SAGs since BAFTA usually diverges from the others):
    1. Manchester by the Sea
    2. Moonlight
    3. La La Land
    4. Arrival
    5. Hell or High Water
    6. Lion
    7. Hacksaw Ridge
    8. Silence

    Lukewarm reception of Fences compared to the other films here might hamper its chances of making the shortlist. If they go for 9 films this year or if Silence doesn’t make the shortlist, then Fences might enter the competition. The win in this category will shape the other wins (especially Acting and Direction). Best Director and Best Picture wins often go against each other. Not to mention Globes doesn’t always agree with Academy for Best Director, so Lonergan might have an upperhand because of it. Although as of now, I’d be okay with any (Jenkins, Chazelle and Lonergan) of them winning.

    Moonlight will take Adapted Screenplay for sure, there’s no competition, Fences just lacks the overwhelming reception Moonlight has had. MBtS and La La land will combat over the Original but if La La Land takes the Picture win, this award will go to it, if not MBtS has the advantage. Production Design is in La La Land territory so far (along with Film Editing and Original Song). Arrival will tackle it over Cinematography but either could win (if Silence doesn’t make the shortlist, otherwise it’s a three way battle). History beckons La La land for Sound Editing and Mixing wins, but I’m not sure it’s gonna take home those. Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival has chances to win (might I add, high chances). As for Score, now that Arrival is out, La La Land might have a steer win, but I think Kubo has chances to land in the shortlist (unorthodox but who cares) as its score was magnificent. Art Direction often go in hand in hand with Costume Design but Jackie or FB or FJK could upset it. Rogue One or Arrival have Visual Effect in their territory as of now (sorry kids, Academy doesn’t love Superhero films much). As for Make-up, FJK might upset Star Trek, Deadpool and a Man Called Ove.

    As for Acting categories, Globes and Academy has history of complementing each other, but since we had the first WTF win of the season at the Globes (Taylor-Johnson), it might shake things up a bit. Affleck and Ali still seem like lock for Best Actor and Supporting Actor respectively. And if Affleck holds his ground at the SAGs, there’s no question who’ll take home the win. Washington has failed to dominate the critics’ shows as well as the Globes, so his chances to win even the SAGs are very slim (Personally, might I add, if Affleck gets snubbed, this would be the most outrageous win since Boggart upsetting Clift back in ’51). Where Davis will land is what no one knows, if she goes for Supporting, it’s a sure fire win but if she lands in Lead it might shake things up a lot (in my personal opinion, the movie’s about Washington’s character, Davis’ was a true Supporting role, so she should land in Supporting). If Davis goes for Supporting, Huppert and Bening being veterans might have the upperhand. Adams is long overdue as well (but it’s a Sci-fi so who knows). Portman already winning before might have derailed her chances. There’s no question about Emma, she’s not gonna win.

    • DaKardii

      I agree with all your Best Picture choices, except for Silence. I think Silence is going to be snubbed. I’m not sure what the last two (I think they will go for nine nominees) BP choices will be, but I have my shortlist: Deadpool, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, “I, Daniel Blake,” Loving, Sing Street, Sully, and 20th Century Women.

      Given how many awards “La La Land” has gotten compared to other pictures in the BP category, I don’t think BP and BD will go against each other this year. I could be wrong, though. I think La La Land’s closest competitor for BP will be Moonlight, and for BD its closest competitor will be Manchester by the Sea.

      While Moonlight is definitely going to be nominated for Adapted Screenplay and may well win, I don’t think there will be “no competition.” I can see Arrival or Nocturnal Animals pulling an upset. I agree with what you say on Original Screenplay.

      As for Acting categories, I think all of them are locked (Affleck for Best Actor, Ali for Best Supporting Actor, and Davis for Best Supporting Actress) except Best Actress, which I think will be a race between Natalie Portman and Emma Stone.

      • Adventurer

        I’m not sure about Silence either which is why I pointed out that if Silence gets subbed out, Fences is gonna end up getting nominated. Florence Foster Jenkins failed to get the critics buzzing, I think it’s safe to deem it out of the run. Sing Street is one of my personal fave as well, but I simply don’t see it being nominated, it’s been snubbed at almost all the critics’ shows as well.

        I would not give any weight to Globes over Best Drama/Comedy/Musical and Director wins. Globes almost always have gotten them wrong (in contrast though, put lots of weight in Globes acting wins as they almost always go on to win at the Academy’s).

        Nocturnal Animals like many said is simply not a movie for everyone, and we all know Academy gobbles up bait movies like Moonlight. While Arrival has the disadvantage of being sci-fi.

        Agreed. But if Davis lands in lead (similarly to Kate Winslet in the Reader), it’ll shake things up a lot. So Best Actress firstly depends on her landing in either category, if she goes for Supporting. I think the 3 overdue veterans (i.e Huppert, Bening and Adams) have more chances to win than Portman and Stone. I can’t envision either of the latter two winning, especially Stone even though Academy has proven to love young actresses for Best Actress category in the past few years. Whereas for Portman, she just won some years ago, it’s not happening this soon.

        • DaKardii

          If Davis decides to go Lead, that would be a huge shakeup. In my opinion, that would knock off either Huppert or Streep (Portman, Stone, and Adams are safe, and I don’t think Benning’s gonna be nominated). As for Best Supporting Actress, I can picture Janelle Monae, Greta Gerwig, or Hayley Squires taking Davis’ place (the other four nominees I think will be Harris, Kidman, Williams, and Spencer). It would be really interesting especially if Monae got nominated, because that would mean two of the BSA nominees would be from the same film (Hidden Figures).

          • Adventurer

            Portman, Stone and Adams are surefire nominees IMO as well. The remaining two from my perspective should be Bening and Huppert. Huppert was especially wonderful in Elle, superior to Streep’s Florence performance. Same with Bening.

            As for Supporting, Harris, Wiliams and Kidman are surefire IMO as well, Davis is too if she goes for Supporting, otherwise the remaining two could be Gerwig and Spencer. Monae, I don’t see happening.

        • Bryce

          Sing Street is another personal favorites. If they do manage to go 10 movies, I can see either Sing Street, Deadpool (gotten nominated for quite a few other awards, not just GG), or Rogue One which has an advantage of a great ensemble cast and basically being a war film, but just like Arrival, has the disadvantage of being scifi.

      • Bryce

        I actually think Stone will win.

  • DaKardii

    UPDATED AND FINAL PREDICTION, NOW THAT BAFTA NOMINATIONS ARE OUT

    -Arrival
    -Hacksaw Ridge
    -Hell or High Water
    -La La Land
    -Lion
    -Manchester by the Sea
    -Moonlight

    The other two are going to come from the following list:: Deadpool, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, “I, Daniel Blake,” Loving, Sing Street, Sully, and 20th Century Women.

  • Demetra

    -La La Land
    -Moonlight
    -Manchester by the Sea
    -Arrival
    -Fences
    -Hacksaw Ridge
    -Hell or High Water
    -Hidden Figures

    Only 8

  • Matteo Bordignon

    Please, tell me that Rogue Ona has a chance for the best picture nomination. I love this film and I think that is really well made.

    • Bryce

      If they go up to 10, it’ll be between Rogue One, Deadpool, and Sing Street. I think they will give one odd one in there.

    • Gevorg Keoseyan

      Luckily there is 0% chance Rogue One makes it in…if it does then the Academy should lose all credibility.

      • Matteo Bordignon

        And deadpool ?

      • Matteo Bordignon

        In Italy only rogue one, lion and silence are in cinemas… Italy is the movies’death.

  • Jonathan

    Get ready for Deadpool to get nods for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and Makeup + Hairstyling haha

    • Bryce

      I am hoping it does. That would be the greatest thing, and most hilarious thing, I would probably ever see in the Oscars.

  • Pokermask

    Here are the films I predict for Best Picture at the moment;
    Arrival
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    This is all based on what has been seen from past award ceremonies so far (with Critic’s Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and Producers Guild being the key factors).

    Also, I consider “Deadpool” to be an 11th spoiler at the moment. Might change if anything major happens.

    • Pokermask

      Also, I consider “Deadpool” to be the 11th spoiler at the moment…

  • 22cinema11

    At the moment, I also think “Hidden Figures” gets a BP nod. It’s getting quite some buzz now (PGA nod, 2 SAG nods including Ensemble, 2 Golden Globe nominations, 3 Critics’ Choice nods, made NBR top 10, got a screening at the White House etc.), and the Academy almost always embraces one or two heartwarming films with a hopeful message. And additionally, some of its contestants for the #8 or #9 spot are significantly losing steam, e. g. “Loving”, “Jackie” or “Sully”.

  • Jonnathas Palmeira

    Esse site é revoltado, La La Land vai levar o Oscar de melhor filme do ano, aceitem.

  • Zach Dizdar

    Hidden Figures or Hell or High Water? Tough

  • Tee

    1. Moonlight
    2. Manchester by the Sea
    3. La La Land
    4. Hacksaw Ridge
    5. Arrival
    6. Hell or High Water
    7. Lion
    And then the last three:
    8. Silence
    9. Nocturnal Animals
    10. Fences

  • Reece

    Ok, I think it’s pretty much settled.. These films will DEFINITLEY MAKE A SHOWING

    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival
    Fences

    The following are probably but can easily be snubbed

    Hell or High Water
    Lion
    Hidden Figures

    For whatever reason those films above are snubbed, these will take their places

    Silence
    Loving
    Nocturnal Animals
    Jackie
    Sully

  • Jonathan

    I like how “Deadpool” isn’t even in the “Unranked Contenders” list even though it has showed up at PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, and WGA.

    • adertamilka .

      Let’s hope it will have nothing to do with the Oscars

      • Jonathan

        I agree – I am not the biggest fan of the film myself, but I find it puzzling that isn’t even in the unranked contenders even though it has showed up at good spots.

      • Bryce

        I hope it does. It’ll give all of us a good laugh right there.

    • Adventurer

      Deadpool has many things against it – It’s R-rated and is full of gore, it’s an action movie, and the premise/screenplay is based on a comic series. Even SAG skipped it for the stunt ensemble, so it has very low chances of making the short list.

      • Jonathan

        I completely get all your points but you can’t ignore PGA + WGA. I would rank it at #30

  • Ferrous Mike

    “The Accountant” excellent movie.

    • Adventurer

      It’s not gonna happen.

  • Bryce

    I may have to edit my list. After the Golden Globes and seeing BAFTA Awards are coming soon, my predictions may change.

  • Bryce

    Disregard the previous comment, I just saw the nominees. Didn’t know they were up. Anyways, here are my final predictions, for real this time.

    The film’s that I think have locked it in are…

    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight

    These films are still trying to find a way…

    Fences
    Hell or High Water
    Lion
    Silence

    And these are the Wild Cards that somehow have a chance and/or more movies are coming out and taking it out of consideration.

    Deadpool
    Hidden Figures
    Jackie
    Loving
    Rogue One
    Sing Street
    Sully

    If I had to make to be cautious I would say Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Silence, and Sing Street.

    But I am all about going for it and making really ballsy predictions, seeing how I thought Mad Max was going to surprise everybody and win (but Spotlight won) here is my official prediction.

    Arrival
    Deadpool
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Rogue One
    Silence
    Sing Street

    *please note I have seen most of these films. Have yet to see Lion, Jackie, and Hidden Figures

    • Matteo Bordignon

      I hope that rogue one receives a nomination for the best picture to avenge the force awakens. Films like the Martian and Brooklyn ( undeservedly) have replaced ep.7

      • Gevorg Keoseyan

        You’re joking right? Brooklyn was the best reviewed film of the year last year, and Martian was an original and well-executed concept. Your inner Star Wars fan must have a bias towards the film to even consider an unoriginal action/fantasy film like Star Wars to be worthy of a Best Picture nomination over either of those films.

        • Matteo Bordignon

          You are right… The Force Awakens is unoriginal but is a wonderful movie from many point of view ( directing, cinematography, editing, visual effects and sound). But I agree with you the lack of originality of episode 7 was his undoing. Anyway many share my thoughts.

          • Matteo Bordignon

            P.S. I saw The Martian 8,5/10, I saw Brooklyn 6,5/10.The Martian is a wonderful film, Brooklyn is boring…

            • Adventurer

              Brooklyn had a brilliant screenplay with great emotional gravity and it was full of nuanced performances (Saoirse especially carried the movie). The score and art direction were equally impressive. You might’ve found it boring but it was in no way a bad movie.

              • Matteo Bordignon

                And The Martian…survival movie in space

                • Adventurer

                  The Martian’s production design, VFX, acting, and score were impressive. Everything else fell flat. For a film which was over 2 hours long, the lack of real character development was irksome, and the exposition of the screenplay was very lacking in itself.

                  • Matteo Bordignon

                    Your ratings for the martian and brooklyn

                    • Dennis

                      I agree about Brooklyn. Fantastic film. The Martian was a breath of fresh air and nice but had nowhere near the emotion or characterization that Brooklyn did. If you insist, 9 for Brooklyn, 7.5 for The Martian

                    • Matteo Bordignon

                      The Martian is a good film but the force awakens is better (in visual effects ,score, editing and cinematography). The force awakens is unoriginal.
                      The Martian 8/8,5
                      The force awakens 9,5 as movie itself
                      The force awakens ( from a fan’s point of view ) 6

                    • Bryce

                      I think people forget that the reason it was unoriginal was because they had a start a whole new trilogy. Introduce new characters, bring back the old, and start an all new trilogy is a bit hard last time I checked. Since they started it, everything else is all going to be original content. If you were directing the Force Awakens, you would probably make a great unoriginal film vs an okay original film. Also, Creed was pretty similar to Rocky and people don’t complain about that. To be honest, the unoriginality of TFA is basically about nit pick.

                    • Matteo Bordignon

                      The force awakens is a fantastic movie, rogue one is a fantastic movie…I hope in a best picture nomination.

                    • Bryce

                      I hope it does as well, but I want La La Land to win. Favorite movie of the year for sure.

                    • Dennis

                      Furthermore, The Force Awakens was vastly superior to Rogue One, so I’d rather not see any avenging going on.

                    • Bryce

                      I thought Rogue One was better. Great characters, the 3rd act, probably the greatest scene in Star Wars history (you know what I’m talking about), and the fact that it made my opinions about A New Hope stronger. It is why it’s my second favorite Star Wars film. I understand the complaints of the first half of the film, but remember, they had to introduce 9 characters in the film, that’s a bit hard and the fact that they did a descent job with introducing 9 characters in one movie is an accomplishment.

                    • Dennis

                      I do agree that it is an accomplishment, and Rogue One is in a weird spot where it seems most fans like it more than Episode 7 but most critics don’t, so I am definitely not surprised to hear when someone disagrees. I value character development a lot more than most so that first half was really rough for me, and I recognize my own bias going into it attributes to some of the dislike. For me, no character reached Rey, Poe, or Finn, and that alone was enough for me to say that. It certainly isn’t established criterion or the universal view.

                  • Bryce

                    Between the three major survival movies in recent years: Cast Away, Gravity, Martian. The Martian was clearly the best one.

                    • Adventurer

                      Clearly the best one? The only thing the Martian had on Gravity was its accuracy. Everything else, Gravity clearly had the upperhand, especially in-terms of score, sound editing, VFX, cinematography and direction. The screenplay also had much more focus and was development driven.

                • Julie

                  Others may have liked it a lot, but it had little effect on me. I mildly enjoyed it while in the theater watching it, but it had no overall impact on me. I remember almost nothing of it.

        • Bryce

          Honestly, there were a few films that could have, and maybe should have been nominated last year. Episode 7, Creed, Inside Out, and Straight Outta Compton, and even Me and Earl and the Dying Girl.

        • Julie

          agreed—Brooklyn and Force Awakens are far, far apart. I’ve seen both, and it’s not even close. It’s a copy of New Hope, I’ve heard. (I saw the original Star Wars but don’t care enough about the genre to remember all details.)

      • Bryce

        The Martian was well-deserved and I can’t say the same for Brooklyn only because I have yet to see it.

  • Gevorg Keoseyan

    I’ll always tune into your site and respect your opinions, but part of me feels like your personal bias against La La Land is impacting your rankings here. Anyone can see that La La Land is clearly the current favorite, with Moonlight and Manchester By the Sea running close behind. I think your 3-star view of La La Land is causing you to continue to place it at #2 or #3.

    • Matteo Bordignon

      LaLa Land probably will win best picture, directing, leading acterss, cinematography, original score and song

      • Bryce

        I can actually see it, based on the Golden Globes, reaching a historic or almost historic number of wins. It has a chance at getting nominated in almost all of the awards. The only one it doesn’t have a chance in is Visual Effects.

      • Julie

        sound mixing and production design, too. I still have Jackie for costumes based on historic difficulty. Right now I see it getting 8; at the very least it will be a Grand Budapest Hotel and get 4 or 5.

    • Jonathan

      Clayton also scored “Manchester by the Sea” 3 stars and he had it predicted to win for some time

  • JJN

    Lock (and eventual winner):
    1) La La Land:
    The depth of its win could be near historic.

    Almost certain:
    2) Manchester by the Sea
    3) Arrival
    4) Moonlight
    5) Hell or High Water
    6) Hacksaw Ridge
    These are all unlikely to win but also unlikely to miss. All have good reviews, good to decent box office, good audience reaction, significant precursor support. But all have a few dings too. I think Moonlight is being significantly overestimated. Critics love it. And critics don’t vote.

    Toss-ups:
    7) Hidden Figures
    8) Lion
    9) Nocturnal Animals
    10) Fences

    I can see a case for any of these, but can also see them miss. Fences seems meh; Hidden Figures is on a roll. These all have significant misses in either box office, reviews, or precursor support. Silence is definitely out. Same with Loving … if there’s a surprise inclusion, it’s almost never a small film that was overlooked.

    Complete Wild Cards
    Deadpool
    Sully
    Zootopia

    Surprise nominees are almost always well-regarded hits. (i.e. American Sniper, Fury Road and Grand Budapest Hotel threading their way back in.) These three are the most “off” of where I’d expected they’d be but these are the only dark horses I can think of.

    No way Deadpool should be anywhere close based on reviews, tone, and content, but … welp. Sully looked safe. Good box office, good reviews, AFI Top 10, then fell off a cliff. (But remember American Sniper.) Zootopia had amazing critical and commercial success and is incredibly well-loved. Has the deeper messages, looks beautiful, and was one of the few films to see Trump coming. Even got AFI Top 10. But the road is so tough for animated films. Still it got BAFTA, PGA, and a Globe Win (all in animation) with the rules it was given. The people who love it, really love it, so “preferential ballot” gives it a better chance than people might suspect.

    • Adventurer

      I would take anything AFI says with a grain of salt. Look at the multitudes of lists they have made. The 50 Legends list is easily the most sacrilegious list made in film history. So many overcooked stars are present in it while other legends are completely missing – Audrey Hepburn in top 3 above Bergman & Garbo (this is easily one of the worst thing to be ever done in acting history, A.Hepburn is a venerable actress, but pit her against Bergman, Davis, K.Hepburn, Garbo and she completely falls apart) ; Monroe & Taylor in top 10, which is just ridiculous; Sophia Loren, Vivien Leigh, Shirley Temple, Grace Kelly & Mae West all above Lombard, Hayworth, Pickford; Gene Kelly above Welles, Astaire above Tracy, Fonda, Gable, Chaplin, Cooper; presence of Dean, Mitchum & Lancaster (Dean especially with his 3 movies, like wtf is he doing there?? Brando and Clift are the true pioneers of method acting, Dean just impersonated them, and that’s a fact); Buster Keaton outside of top 20; and then worst of all lack of major legends like Monty Clift, Jack Lemmon, Paul Newman, Richard Burton, Norma Shearer, Greer Garson, Miriam Hopkins, Leslie Howard etc.

      Then look at the 100 Films list and their yearly top 10 lists.

      • JJN

        I see what you’re saying. It wasn’t necessarily an endorsement of AFI’s rankings, just that it’s seen as a precursor that’s moderately predictive of the Oscar noms. SAG and the Producers’ awards are probably closer.

        I mentioned AFI in conjunction to Sully to suggest that it was doing well until suddenly it wasn’t. I’m somewhat surprised it lost traction so quickly, although I’ve noticed that many movies seem to be viewed most negatively 4 to 6 months after release and then rebound. So maybe it’s the timing.

        • Adventurer

          Yeah, SAG and PGA are more accurate if you want an Academy shortlist.

          I liked Sully, but I think it got critical buzz only because of Hanks and Eastwood tbh It’s not the kind of movie critic award shows like.

    • Bryce

      I would throw Sing Street in the WildCard as well. One of the best reviewed films of the year, nominated for multiple awards, ETC. I would even throw Rogue One in there as well.

      • JJN

        I thought about Rogue One, but decided against it. The Academy really doesn’t like SF or sequels/installments, so it needed spectacular reviews and a sense of “wow, this transcends the genre”. But it’s simply seen as good of its type. Also, most SF fans will vote for Arrival, so I don’t think it will get enough first place votes to make the cut.

        I think Sing Street is in the same position as a bunch of early-2016 smaller indie movies like Eye in the Sky, Lobster, Captain Fantastic, Love and Friendship. They are well-reviewed and well-liked by those who have seen them, but I don’t think they are well-known enough. The Academy members don’t see every movie. They’ll watch their screeners if the movie is a contender. They all have a small chance, but I’d be surprised to see any of them get nominated.

        • Bryce

          Sing Street (along with Swiss Army Man) were the kost reviewed indies in 2016. Also, Rogue One has a chance mainly due to the fact that is is a war film.

  • patrick kennedy

    La la land will win because Hollywood always votes for itself

    Lala Land will win, because the film industry always favors movies that reaffirm itself. Crash prime example. Toss into the nominated mix a movie that reaffirms old Hollywood musical standard romance and updated glitz? Sure winner. (i liked the movie, much as I dislike ballet, and Gene Kelly with his patronizing push in my face.)
    The best, the most innovative and most eye-opening movie this year was Moonlight. I watched it with one other person in a theater on an early Saturday. It took total effect when I left the theater. Emotionally tied to it for days. Teaching the boy Chiron to swim is one of the most beautiful film sequences in cinema history.
    My favorite movie of the year? The one I’ll watch over and over? Jungle Book.

    • Dennis

      I disagree. La La Land will win because it is arguably the best movie of the year, *and* it’s right up Hollywood’s alley. Does the academy occasionally vote for itself? Sure. I saw Moonlight and was let down. The movie was perfect for me too: heavy drama, thematic, etc. There wasn’t enough characterization for me to hold on to. I’m not going to say it’s bad or even not great, because many love it and I saw a lot of greatness in it. I, however, liked La La Land and Manchester by the Sea drastically more, following up with Hell or High Water & Arrival.

      By the way: Crash won best picture because 2005 was a miserably, miserably bad year for film and its only competition was Brokeback Mountain, a much better film but a bit too progressive for 2005, unfortunately. A better example for Hollywood voting for itself is for The Artist.

      • patrick kennedy

        points well taken

      • Bryce

        Still hate the Academy for snubbing the best Oscar Bait movie and the most surprising film of the year… 50/50. You are right about La La Land though. Good points are stated and it helps that La La Land is one of, if not, the best reviewed movie of the year. The Golden Globe record helps as well.

        • Dennis

          Ah yes, that one surprised me as well, and I haven’t even seen it (regretfully). I was upset Drive wasn’t nominated for anything aside from editing (and I know it’s a somewhat divisive movie, but it was a bad year). La La Land gives the academy an option to add some diversity with a musical as well, on top of the universal acclaim. The Oscars definitely get it wrong sometimes. So often what many consider some of the best of a decade were not even nominated.

          • Bryce

            Drive was another one that should have been nominated. People even argued that the final Harry Potter film should have had a nomination and so did Warrior. Anyways, to get back to 2016, you are absolutely correct about La La Land.

      • Julie

        I don’t think the Crash year was a bad year for film. Munich, Capote, and Good Night, and Good Luck were all above average, and that’s just to name a few of the good movies. I also liked non-nominated movies like Memoirs of a Geisha (I know that’s divisive), King Kong, and History of Violence. Again, that’s just the top of my head.

        La La Land should and probably will win many categories (right now I’m thinking 6-8) in a walk unless the “punish whites as a group for voting for Trump” narrative takes hold in earnest. Even so, the anti-La La Land vote will likely split among several contenders, esp. if Fences makes it into BP (which is not a sure thing). The best thing to happen to Moonlight with BP is a Fences/Hidden Figures snub.

        • Dennis

          You’re correct about all of those movies; they are good (I don’t like A History of Violence but I know I’m in the minority), but that’s still only about six good movies. Most consider 2005 a bad year, because it doesn’t have a single universally loved movie. See 2006, which has Children of Men, The Departed, Pan’s Labyrinth, Casino Royale, and The Prestige. The first three of those are considered modern classics you’ll find on many best-of-decade lists. Brokeback Mountain is really the only one coming out of 2005 with similar lasting love (A History of Violence as well for some).

          Fences was a complete miss for me, and I expect La La Land to win BP, best director, maybe actress, best song, cinematography, editing, production design, score, and I don’t know after that. I don’t want to dog Moonlight because I know many loved, but it was a disappointment for me. I thought the third act was magnificent, but the lead-up and character development were absent for me. I loved Manchester by the Sea about as much as La La Land, but I recognize that it has about two categories locked and not too much competition after that.

          • Julie

            Great point, Dennis. I think that we have different perceptions of how many movies constitute a “good year.” I live in the middle of nowhere and often don’t see movies until way after the Oscar race has ended, so my universe of movies is way smaller than yours. For example, I have only seen 8 or 9 of the acting performances that are likely to be nominated this year, and of potential best picture nominees, I have only seen La La Land, Manchester, Hidden Figures, and Hell or High Water. Part of that is because I don’t get screeners, and I’m cheap.

          • Adventurer

            I hated A History of Violence as well. So I’m with you.

            I agree with you on Fences as well. The screenplay was flawed IMO Davis was the only shining light in it.

        • Mangesh Gaikwad

          Yes, no BP nominations for Fences & Hidden Figures. Those are nice movies but not a Best Picture Contenders or material.

          • Julie

            I want one or both to get in regardless of whether they are worthy so that La La Land is more likely to win.

        • Adventurer

          Crash year was bad because Crash is a nonsensical garbage. Any of the other movies were easily superior.

          La La Land should win Art direction, Director, Song, Score and Sound Mixing. That’s it. The other nominees for the other categories were easily better.

          Sound Editing – Arrival and Ridge were easily better. Film Editing – Arrival was easily better. Cinematography – this is a tough category, any of them can win. Silence and Arrival had better cinematography than La la land. Screenplay – La La Land is among the weakest screenplay. Actress – Huppert and Portman were better than Stone. Actor – Not even a frontrunner. Costume – Jackie is easily better. Best Picture – La La land is not a Best Picture material. It’s a feel good movie which is way too long for its own good. Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water are all better movies.

  • Ian Lane

    Anyone think Jackie might still have a chance at nomination?

    • Dennis

      I don’t see why it doesn’t. Good reviews and a likely Oscar win for Natalie Portman. I have unfortunately not been able to see it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it nabbed a nomination. The thing it has going against it is publicity.

  • Dennis

    Could someone explain to me why Lion seems to have a bit of awards buzz? It’s sitting with a 67 on metacritic. I can’t remember a film nominated for best picture with that low of a metacritic in years.

    • Matteo Bordignon

      Crash, Braveheart, Gladiator

      • Dennis

        You’re proving my point. Sure, they’re best-picture winners, but that was eleven years ago, at the earliest.

        • Matteo Bordignon

          Rogue One and Lion will be the first…ahahahahaha

        • Alec Glass

          But if you’re looking for nominees as well, look no further than Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close just 5 years ago, it had a friggin 46 on metacritic!

    • Julie

      the DGA nom, the fact that it’s the only Weinstein movie in the mix, the “warm” tone of the film, guild success

  • Ian Lane

    My predictions:
    1. Moonlight
    2. La La Land
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. Arrival
    5. Lion
    6. Hacksaw Ridge
    7. Hell or High Water
    8. Fences
    9. Silence
    10. Jackie

  • Bryce

    Although La La Land is my favorite of the year (Sing Street and Hacksaw Ridge are close 2nd and 3rd), part of me wants Hacksaw Ridge to win just for Gibson’s comeback.

  • Alfred

    After PGA, DGA and Bafta here are my predictions considering all the 336 eligible films and not only the front-runners (in order):
    1. “Moonlight”
    2. “La La Land”
    3. “Manchester by the sea”
    4. “Hell or High Water”
    5. “Arrival”
    6. “Fences”
    7. “Hacksaw Ridge”
    8. “Lion”
    9. “The silence”
    10. “I, Daniel Blake” (surprise underdog)
    *I think it’s gonna be a top 10 instead of 8 or 9. Still in big fight:
    11. “Birth of a nation” (surprise underdog)
    12. “Sing street” (surprise underdog)
    13. “Paterson” (surprise underdog)
    14. “Loving”
    15. “Hidden Figures”
    16. “Nocturnal Animals”
    17. “Jackie”
    18. “20th Century women”
    19. “Captain Fantastic”
    20. “Deadpool”
    21. “Sully”

    • JJN

      Among your surprise underdogs, I don’t see “I, Daniel Blake” as having that high of a chance. It’s a British phenomenon and isn’t well known here. The chart above has it at #37 and that seems about right. Birth of a Nation is also unlikely; it’s been written off, it has low RT and Metacritic scores, and I don’t think Fox even launched a campaign for it.

      • Alfred

        I do agree but these 2 films are masterpieces. Few times Oscars don’t play safe and choose universal films out of nowhere (that were overlooked at Critics Awards). Forget about British social realism (that Oscar don’t love) and forget about the rape scandal (art is judged by art itself and not by the personal life of the artist). These 2 films are innovative. As far as Sing street is concerned, they didn’t see it anywhere but fairly achieved the GG film (comedy/musical). Believe in miracles, broski (I am not American but I love slang words).

        • Alfred

          Also Bafta are not stupid for nominating I, Daniel Blake in the top 5 for best film. Don’t tell me it’s British because Florence Foster Jenkins is British as well and play higher than Ken Loach’s film but they didn’t choose it. Moreover, Bafta these days play more American and Oscar centric than British, thus nominating I, Daniel Blake (fairly) for film, directing, original screenplay and supporting actress it means that is has possibilities to place in any of these categories (or even for Actor). The 5 nominated films for Bafta best film always get a nomination for Oscar, nowadays. So I think, this site in all these 5 categories should put higher I, Daniel Blake.

          • JJN

            No, I don’t think they are stupid for nominating it. I never implied that. Obviously it’s well liked and has struck a chord in the UK (and with you) and it deserves its BAFTA inclusion. Good for it and for Loach.

            But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s heading for an Oscar nomination. It’s a British film about a British topic that hasn’t yet had a US release. It doesn’t have any other precursor support. Now obviously there are British members of the Academy and if they overwhelmingly vote for it then it might squeak in. But it’s not certain it will get the majority of the British vote and it won’t get many American votes.

            I actually think FFJ has a better shot due to Streep (plus her GG speech) and Grant, the Globe nominations, and an American release which earned close to $30m US. Hey, maybe I’m wrong, but I think from your list that Sing Street and Paterson are more likely to pull an upset than I,DB.

  • Mangesh Gaikwad

    # Oscars Nominations 2017 ::

    My Predictions ::

    # Picture ::
    La La Land

    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Arrival
    Lion
    Hell or High Water
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Silence

    (if 10 movies are nominated)
    The Jungle Book
    Zootopia

    # Director ::
    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
    Martin Scorsese (Silence)

    # Actress ::
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)

    # Actor ::
    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)

    # Supp. Actress ::
    Viola Davis (Fences)

    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Molly Shannon (Other People)

    # Supp. Actor ::
    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

    # Adapted Screenplay ::
    Arrival

    Moonlight
    Lion
    Silence
    Nocturnal Animals

    # Original Screenplay ::
    Manchester by the Sea

    Hell or High Water
    Jackie
    The Lobster
    La La Land

    # Cinematography ::
    La La Land

    Silence
    Arrival
    Moonlight
    Jackie /Lion

    # Costume Design ::
    Jackie

    Silence
    La La Land
    Allied
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to find them

    # Film Editing ::
    La La Land

    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival Moonlight
    Manchester by the Sea
    Silence

    # Makeup and Hair ::
    Deadpool

    A Man Called Ove
    Star Trek Beyond

    # Production Design ::
    La La Land

    Jackie
    Silence
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and where to find them

    # Score ::
    La La Land

    Moonlight
    Jackie
    Lion
    Rogue One

    # Song ::
    City of Stars (La La Land)

    Audition – Fools who Dreams (La La Land)
    How Far I’ll Go (Moana)
    Can’t stop the feeling (Trolls)
    Letter to the Free (13th)

    # Sound Editing
    Hacksaw Ridge

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Arrival
    The Jungle Book
    Silence

    # Sound Mixing
    La La Land

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    The Jungle Book
    Arrival

    # Visual Effects
    The Jungle Book

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Doctor Strange
    Arrival
    Captain America: Civil War

    # Animated Feature
    Zootopia

    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Moana
    The Red Turtle
    My Life as a Zucchini

    # Documentary
    O.J.: Made in America

    13th
    I Am Not Your Negro
    Cameraperson
    The Eagle Huntress

    # Foreign Film
    Toni Erdmann

    The Salesman
    Land of Mine
    A Man Called Ove
    Paradise

    • Jordan De Pass

      Isabelle Huppert was no where good enough to win

      • Alec Glass

        She won the Golden Globe… and as far as the merit of the performance goes, I firmly disagree.

        • Bryce

          You’re right that Portman won’t win, but I think Emma Stone will get the win. I also think if they do 10 films it would be Sing Street and Deadpool.

        • Jordan De Pass

          She plays strong willed character who’s satisfied with getting raped? I did not think it was “amazing”. She missed out on SAG and the BAFTAs and if you ask me the HFPA might have been showing a little favouritism with her win.

          • Adventurer

            I don’t think you understand the difference between character and performance. Her character might’ve been messed up, but she played the character brilliantly. If awards are handed out on the basis of how likeable the character is then award history would be entirely different.

          • Alec Glass

            Fair point on the HFPA but it’s also worth noting that because of the different release date overseas she wasn’t eligible for Elle at the BAFTAs. Also I second Adventurer’s response

  • jimak

    I liked ‘Nocturnal Animals’ a lot more than most. I have it in my top 5:

    La La Land
    Hell or High Water
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Manchester
    Nocturnal Animals
    Hidden Figures
    Sing Street
    Captain Fantastic

  • Ian Lane

    Nocturnal Animals!? Great another film to worry about…

  • MovieJay

    Locked In:
    La La Land
    Manchester
    Moonlight

    Safe Bets:
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures

    On the Cusp:
    Fences
    Lion
    Loving

    Outside Shot:
    20th Century Women
    Zootopia

    Wannabes:
    Jackie (great performance in a meh movie)
    Nocturnal Animals (the story within the story is retread)
    Silence (voters all fell asleep)

  • Tee

    1. Moonlight
    2. La La Land
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. Lion
    5. Silence
    6. Hacksaw Ridge
    7. Hidden Figures

    8. Arrival
    9. Nocturnal Animals
    10. Hell or High Water

  • Athena Politou

    I feel like you’re in denial about La La Land. It’s going to win.

    • Adventurer

      I think you’re in delusion about La La Land.

  • michaeldal65

    In A Perfect World…
    1. Arrival
    2. Eye In The Sky
    3. Moonlight
    4. Paterson
    5. Hidden Figures
    6. Jackie
    7. Elle
    8. Nocturnal Animals
    9. Manchester By The Sea

  • Yaroslav Vdovenko

    How is it possible that Fences was out from top 9? One of the best for sure, Hollywood’s oldschool. With all due respect to Nocturnal Animals, there is no place for him in best picture category.

  • DaKardii

    Okay. WHY are you updating after January 13, when voting ended? This makes NO sense.

    • I think your question makes no sense. Voting may have ended for AMPAS voters, not for Oscar predictors, who still don’t know the nominations! Predictions can be updated up to the last second before the announcement!

      • DaKardii

        I know. But it’s pointless. New developments are not going to affect the outcome.

        • Alec Glass

          umm its not as if new developments only serve to tell voters what to do…? yes they’re not going to affect the outcome but new awards being given out can still act as further insight into how people, and academy voters in particular, are responding to what movies…? Its not like we all know what the voters are thinking and its just about what other awards will influence their vote…..?

        • Adventurer

          It’s not pointless considering we don’t know the nominees. So we can juggle around predictions until it’s officially confirmed.

  • Matteo Bordignon

    My final prediction ( no order )

    La La Land
    Arrival
    Moonlight
    Manchester by the sea
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Silence
    Hidden Figures
    Rogue One
    Hell or high water

    Winner: La La Land
    My winner: La La Land

    • Mister Sushi

      Ok, I know this is old, but how did you expect Rogue One to get a nom when the superior Force Awakens didn’t?

  • Fabio González

    Nocturnal Animals is in the top 9… huh. I loved the movie but I don’t expect it to be a Best Picture Nominee.

    • 22cinema11

      Me too.

      • Mangesh Gaikwad

        Me 3😂…

    • Mangesh Gaikwad

      Me 3😂

    • Adventurer

      Same. It is too polarising.

    • Mister Sushi

      Sad, but true 🙁

  • Fabio González

    On the other hand, I really hope Silence gets a nomination.

  • 22cinema11

    Final predictions:

    La La Land
    Moonlight
    Manchester by the Sea
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell Or High Water
    Lion
    Hidden Figures
    Fences

    If there are ten nominees, maybe “Jackie” or “Nocturnal Animals” gets in as well. Or maybe there’ll be a surprise snub like “Carol” last year …

  • Reece

    I would REALLY like to see Sully pop up here, but I think it’s chances are slim (but not non-existent)

  • Alfred

    Although this site has some mistakes of ineligible films (Morris from America, Aquarius, Unknown girl etc- I’ve noticed it each year- maybe because they don’t look carefully the eligible films or they don’t look our comments here correcting them), it is the most accurate site in predicting uderdogs and treating equally to many films and not only the front-runners. For example, I, Daniel Blake achieved 4 big Bafta nominations and thus it doesn’t play so low as it is predicted in other sites. Nowadays, the top 5 bafta film nominees are always inside the Oscars, not necessarily in film category but they snick somewhere, so I, Daniel Blake has possibilities to place somewhere. A Bafta top 5 film nominee with no Oscar nomination was back in 1993, I can’t believe this will happen this year. Film, directing (praising an auteur they never did, this category did this many times in the past with Almodovar, Lynch, Egoyan, Fellini, Kurosawa, Meirelles without praising their film itself), original screenplay, supporting actress, all these 4 fairly Bafta nominated along with actor, in any of this category the Bafta film contender has many possibilities to do it. Ok, I know it’s not in the top 5 but very close, in this position this site gives, it is (other sites give it 50th etc). One omission I find in this site: Sing street which indeed has possibilities in film, original screenplay and maybe supporting actor. Also Paterson has possibilities for film.

  • Reece

    Fences has Scott Rudin, I think it’s a sure thing..

  • Truth Gun

    Deadpool must make it.

  • DaKardii

    So, I got eight out of nine right.

    I predicted that the following seven would definitely be nominated: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. The other two would come from the following list: Deadpool, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, “I, Daniel Blake,” Loving, Sing Street, Sully, and 20th Century Women.

    Though I never stated on this site what I thought eight and nine would be due to me believing the wild card list had equal probabilities of being nominated, my guesses were, in private, Fences and Loving. I got Fences right, but Loving got snubbed in favor of Hidden Figures, whose nomination absolutely shocks me, because it was not even nominated for any of the other major awards (BAFTA, CC, GG, and SAG).

  • JJN

    No real surprises here. All 6 of my “certain nominees” made it and 3 of my 4 toss-ups made it (Nocturnal Animals missed). Obviously, none of my dark horses made it and in fact nobody’s longshots made it … there wasn’t even a mild upset and no super-astonishing snub.

    Really not a terribly interesting slate of movies. A handful of great films but overall the dullest since the Academy expanded the list … lots of middlebrow oscar-bait filling out the lower tier and both well-regarded blockbusters and interesting smaller films largely MIA. It would be nice to see a true underdog like “Sing Street”, “Eye in The Sky”, or “The Lobster” get in. Likewise, the action and animation genres drive the box office and include well-reviewed and smartly-written films, but Winter Soldier, Inside Out, and now Zootopia have all missed out.

    Some suggestions for the Academy to improve this:
    — Move up the qualifying deadline to Dec 1 to avoid a crush of “serious” films all at once and allow them to be properly assessed.
    — Reserve two spots for films released before July 1st (give those early year films a chance).
    — Perhaps create a new category for “Best Indie Film” (based on studio and budget)
    — A best voice actor category would give extra visibility to animated and genre films

    • DaKardii

      Yeah. There seems to have been a spate of fall dramas dominating Best Picture. The last time a Best Picture winner was NOT released in the Fall (or on or after July 1) was The Hurt Locker, which was released in June 2009 (it was awarded in 2010). The Hurt Locker was also the last non-drama film to win Best Picture (it is classified as a thriller as opposed to a drama; the last time an actual comedy won Best Picture was Chicago in 2003).

    • Mister Sushi

      “Reserve two spots for films released before July 1st (give those early year films a chance).”
      Yeah… no. Whether a film was good or not should DEFINITELY NOT be based upon when it was released.
      I agree 100% with the voice acting category, however. Indie film would be cool too but ehh…

      I also wanted to add that the reason why a bunch of the nominees (actually almost all of them) were released towards the end of the year is because they want themselves to be recognized and not get lost in the muddle of earlier films.

      • JJN

        I hear you about that, but the reality is that the nominees *are* based on when they were released. Rarely do good movies from the first half of the year receive any serious consideration.

        Bit of a chicken and egg situation and I’m not sure how else to untangle that. There are twice/three times as many good, serious movies released within 8 weeks as the rest of the year. Few people can see them all and decent films underperform. Which gives Hollywood ammunition not to make more of them.

  • DaKardii

    TOP 10 BIGGEST OSCAR SURPRISES FOR ME

    1) Hidden Figures nominated for Best Picture
    2) 20th Century Women nominated for Best Original Screenplay
    3) Amy Adams NOT nominated for Best Actress for Arrival
    4) Nocturnal Animals NOT nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
    5) Hugh Grant NOT nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Florence Foster Jenkins
    6) Michael Shannon nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Nocturnal Animals
    7) Ruth Negga nominated for Best Actress for Loving
    8) Aaron Taylor-Johnson NOT nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Nocturnal Animals
    9) Fences nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
    10) Lucas Hedges nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Manchester by the Sea

    • Alec Glass

      still pretty confused as to how Hidden Figures was a surprise. Read your comment below and yeah it didnt pick up anything in those 4 but it got in PGA, and its not as if it was some out there choice like Deadpool either? PGA has been the most consistent predictor out of the awards for best picture fir some time now.

    • Mister Sushi

      “Nocturnal Animals NOT nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay” should be changed to “Nocturnal Animals NOT nominated for anything other than Best Supporting Actor”. Seriously, I feel like it could have had a chance in nearly every category but the Academy decided nah.

      • DaKardii

        Personally, I think Nocturnal Animals deserved to also receive nominations for Best Director, Best Actor (Gyllenhaal), Best Supporting Actor (Taylor-Johnson, who I think deserved it more than Shannon), and Best Adapted Screenplay (I don’t pay attention to awards outside Picture, Director, or any of the Acting or Screenplay categories).

        • Mister Sushi

          Nocturnal Animals should have defnitely also gotten noms in Makeup and Costume. (Actually, maybe not makeup due to the small number of noms, but costume for sure.)

  • AyeAye

    No surprises here. I’m betting my money on Moonlight. La La Land looks weak for Original Screenplay, meaning it’ll likely not win this.

    • Alec Glass

      oh how I wish I could agree

      • AyeAye

        lol You don’t need to. I’m just saying that based on Academy history. Dramas have more edge incomparison to musicals and sci-fi. So my bet is Moonlight & MBtS for Screenplay prizes and either of them winning Best Picture.

    • Xela Fillips

      Original screenplay is more likely to be Manchester By The Sea than Moonlight, in my opinion.

      Also I really think Lion might take home adapted screenplay.

      • Derrick

        Moonlight is nominated in Adapted Screenplay and it has a HUGE chance of winning that.
        I will be happy with ‘Manchester By The Sea’ winning Original Screenplay over ‘La La Land’

      • AyeAye

        Moonlight is for Adapted not Original at the Oscars. Which is why Moonlight looks strong for Best Picture over La La Land.

  • BTS

    Since “La La Land’ is now tied for the most amount of Oscar nominations for a film (14 nominations and tied with “Titanic” and “All About Eve”), could it join or even beat “Ben-Hur”, “Titanic”, and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” with most Oscar wins (needs at least 11 to join the three and 12 or 13 to beat them)?
    Also, could “La La Land” be the fourth film in Oscar History to win “The Big Five” (Picture, Directing, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and [Original OR Adapted] Screenplay), along side “It Happened One Night”, “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Silence of the Lamb”? We shall wait and see…

    • DaKardii

      Right now, I have La La Land as the favorite to win Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. I have it as number 2 for Best Actor (behind Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea) and Best Original Screenplay (behind Manchester by the Sea).

    • AyeAye

      Gosling will win Lead Actor in only the dreams of his fans’.
      As of right now, La La Land is locked for only 2 categories i.e the Best Original Song and Score. And Best Director, kinda.

      The more you look at all the nominations and previous wins, you’ll find that La la land is looking more disadvantaged at sweeping everything.
      Screenplay is among the more important prizes in fixing Best Pic noms – MBtS is locked for Original Screenplay right now with LLL losing out major Screenplay awards before (unless WGA changes the race) with Moonlight locked for Adapted (Unless WGA changes it). MBtS missed out editing, so the Best Picture is highly favoured towards Moonlight’s than over La La Land.
      Best Actress – Stone has swept the televised awards, BUT we could see an upset from Huppert and Portman. Don’t count them out yet. Acting awards have been highly varied throughout the award season.
      Art Direction – This is one award which I think LLL should miss out on due Jackie looking better. And it could happen. LLL is not locked in any way here.
      Cinematography – Race between La La Land, Arrival, Silence and Lion. Arrival should win in my opinion, but La La land could take it.
      Costume Design – Jackie is the lead and has been so since ages ago.
      Editing – Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge have been gaining momentum. Look for an upset, which would be rightly deserved if Arrival takes it as it has the best editing out of them IMO
      Sound Editing – This is one category which looks weak for LLL. Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival have been gaining momentum, and history has shown that war movies do well in this category.
      Sound Mixing – Musicals and War epics, both have been strong for this category in the past, so Hacksaw Ridge could pull an upset.

  • DaKardii

    MY PREDICTION FOR BEST PICTURE WINNER

    Right now, La La Land is the favorite, though I think Moonlight could be a potential spoiler. The chances that any of the others win are slim.

  • Reece

    Can Woody Allen release his movies SOMEWHAT later into the year? Café Society was excellent imo, but it just couldn’t get the same recognition cuz it just flew under the radar..

  • Luke McGowan

    I had a dream the other night that Moonlight won. I feel like if Moonlight wins SAG, we could have another Spotlight win which we should have seen coming. I’m going to predict it if it wins SAG, with a Picture/Director split for La La Land like Slave/Gravity, since Moonlight is looking good to win Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor (very similar to Slave was)

    • Reece

      That first line sounds like the opening line to “AwardsCircuit the Musical” lol

  • Chucho E. Quintero

    Does anybody else miss the old site design with the posters/photos and the brief blurb about each nominee’s possibilities? 🙁

    • Ian Lane

      Yes.

    • Calvin Damon

      Indeed

  • I eat fuzz pedals

    Zootopia “missing the cut”? If you mean that it was garbage then yeah sure.

  • Bryce

    I think La La Land will win Best Picture.

  • JJN

    La La Land is still the huge favorite especially with DGA, but does anyone else feel that Hidden Figures might be the strongest runner up right now? It’s very by-the-book, but it’s hugely popular at just the right time and the SAG cast win sure helps.

    Can’t think what might be third. MbtS, Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival all seem to be in the next tier.

    • adertamilka .

      I think we can agree the Academy is most times when it comes to best picture winners, is not about popularity. I believe Hidden Figures is deservedly going home empty-handed.

      • Adventurer

        Agreed.

  • Aquinta Ancrum

    LA LA LAND: Good movie but they didn’t have to improvise as much. HIDDEN FIGURES: True story, but the movie brings confusion in the truth because Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. removed segregation. FENCES: Good movie, true story. Outstanding performance by the cast. OSCAR 2017 BEST PICTURE – FENCES.

  • James

    I really hope Hacksaw Ridge wins Best Picture. Even Director for Mel Gibson. I dont understand how people dont grasp the epicness of this film. It is by far the most “dramatic” and unforgettable film this year. ALMOST as good as Saving Private Ryan 20 years ago. I think because most people dispise Gibson so much, that they refuse to even watch his films. Yet he has made the most epic and sweeping historical dramas more than any other director. La La Land was ok, kind of a crowd pleasing/feel good at the movies musical, terrible script though and way overhyped, Manchester by Sea, great performance by Affleck, but too long and dull, not something you would want to watch again. Arrival was soooo boring, cool idea, lets communicate with the Aliens, oh its the future not the past, big deal, not all that shocking or something I would watch again either. Moonlight I havent seen, but I dont think anyone has. Fences was good, performance driven, not “Best Picture” worthy. Hell or High Water was great, but doesnt deserve best picture either, maybe if the Cohen brothers directed it and it was more weird and powerful, it would have a better chance. Lion havent seen, and Hidden Figures seems interesting, but overall, Hacksaw Ridge to me is the most memorable and emotional film this year. It has POWER. It is brutal and has realistic war scenes that stay with you. The message is beautiful and about God even though its a war movie. Theres a love story in it, its amazing. I remember a time in Hollywood where the “Epic” movies would always be the front runner for best picture…because they GRAB you and cant forget them. Cmon everyone, give Hacksaw Ridge and Gibson more credit.

    • Adventurer

      It’s not gonna win either.

    • Xela Fillips

      Moonlight, Fences and Hidden Figures, All those three are incredibly memorable for me, don’t rule them out if you haven’t seen them yet. I personally think after Hidden Figures award at the SAG and La La Lands absence from nomination in category of best ensemble of cast, Hidden Figures has a high chance of winning Bets Picture.

      The voters for SAG (other fellow actors) are also on the Academy for voting so this could incredbly sway the results for Best Picture. I would be surprised if Hacksaw Ridge wins Best Picture, it is a great movie though. I think the politics behind what’s happening right now will highly sway in favor of Hidden Figures. Especially with the controversy of #oscarssowhite

      • BottomLine

        La La is so white it might cause blindness. Can’t see how it will pass the diversity requirement. It doesn’t deserve Best Pic for numerous reasons.

    • Kristians Fukss

      I SO don’t agree because it was so FAKE! All the war scenes was just so fake, I read a review of the movie by war veterans and they said it was a strong 1. For example, if the Chinese got to the edge of the ridge where the ropes was, why didn’t they cut the rope / drop bombs on Americans? In real life they would but this was a fairy tail, made up, not a real story as it’s told in the beginning. All the war scenes was fake and made up so the film would be powerful, it was just a basic story but with a big budget. if Hacksaw Ridge would win if would be a shame to the academy so it won’t win. I think Moonlight will win, although my favorite from 2016 is Arrival – it was just so astonishing and well written with amazing actors, not like La La Land, where the plot was nothing! Half of the films was singing and the other half was the most basic love story ever – girl falls in love, then they broke up but in the end they end up together. Is that Oscar material? No!

      • James

        Dude the story is not fake at all. Look it up. Its all mostly true. I think they def exaggerated the height of the actual ridge for the movie, and Im surethe JAPANESE not Chinese soldiers had a good reason not to come to the edge of the ridge….like the battle ships bombing that area to clear so troops can go in? Hmmmm.. but the real Desmond Doss and his battallion really were slaughtered, and he really saved 75 guys lives. Ok maybe his spiderman gernade kick was a little goofy, but nothing else didnt seem “fake” at all. How else to show bullets ripping thru guys and limbs being blown up? You dont think its on Par with Saving Private Ryan? And Arrival was AWFUL dude. Cmon. First of all they stole the music from Shutter Island as its main theme, then every time they are in the space ship, you think something excited is going to happen, then they just draw another ink circle, thats slightly different than the previous circle. And they do this like 5 times in the movie. The movie was so boring and unclimatic. Hacksaw Ridge is a million. A MILLION times better than Arrival. Even Charlie Sheens 90s movie “The Arrival” is far superior.

        • Xela Fillips

          I agree with James in regards points in regards to Hacksaw Ridge. Kristians… they are Japanese soldiers not Chinese. How ignorant of a statement, I can’t even comprehend what you said afterwards with any ounce of respect or intelligence. Sorry.

          However, James I would have to disagree with you as I thought Arrival was a fantastic film. This film was solely about story-building and conveying an underlying message; we need to forget our differences, there is strength in numbers and in order for us to continue to strive as a species on this planet we call Earth, we are going to need to learn how to work together. I went to see Arrival knowing what the premise of the movie was about, I wasn’t expecting action. Not once did I think something “exciting” was going to happen every time they entered the spaceship, I anticipated there would be struggles and progress, much like how it would pan out in real life and not Hollywood. I was expecting a well thought out – and amazingly produced – movie. The cinematography was fantastic in this movie and I would say probably the best in the category of nominations.

          Secondly, The music WAS NOT stolen from Shutter Island. I assume you are referring to the use of ‘On The Nature of Daylight’ composed by British composer Max Richter. This piece of music was part of the album “The Blue Notebooks” which Max Richter composed and released in 2004 as a “protest album” against the War in Iraq which began in 2003. Shutter Island may have used this piece of music (as well as MANY MANY other movies, TV shows and Trailers might I add), but they by no means does Shutter Island own the rights to the piece.

          You seem to judge movies with a strong bias and misinformation. Judging a movie harshly because it used the same piece of music in another movie you loved – claiming it copied that movie – that isn’t an effective way to judge a movie with an open mind.

          It seems you have a profound and strong interest in War Movies, which immediately would make you favor Hacksaw Ridge, which is completely fine! but I think it has created a clouded judgement on other movies. Hacksaw Ridge is full of action and anxiety and Arrival is quite the opposite to certain degree. You are comparing apples to oranges here.

          I’m not saying you are wrong, everyone enjoys their own style of movies, all I am saying is don’t be so quick to judge a movie by comparing it to another movie in a complete different genre.

          • James

            Kudos Xela. Of course I realize they didnt “steal” the music, but what Im saying is the moment I hear that song, I think Shutter Island. They stole that “feeling” that goes a long with Shutter Island with a song. Its such a sad song….and its like, sorry, Shutter Island did it first…know what I mean? Movies will do that every now and then, and Im just saying, to ME, a hardcore movie buff(not just war movies…all movies) notices these things and I think its lazy. Sorry. Why not just use a new and original song or tune for your movie ? Honesty, I will give Arrival another viewing, but I can definitely say I was not amazed. Im all for movies that are slow thinkers and have smart writing, but I just didnt feel it. Every time, the aliens drew a circle, it would of been so much better if they started to draw other things, new information they have to figure out…idk. lol.

            • Xela Fillips

              Right. I get that. I guess for me I didn’t even remember it was in Shutter Island until you mentioned it and I looked it up. I’ve seen Shutter Island several times and don’t even recall it being in it. I associate the music with a provocative tone which evokes sadness and empathy. On The Nature of Daylight executes that feeling with precision, and that’s why it was selected. Sure, you could have selected many other pieces of music for that, however the same can be said when looking at Shutter Island.

              I guess if you really love Shutter Island and you relate the movie with that song, then it’s going to feel that way. I’ve heard the song in many movies, trailers, and shows. As soon as it was played in Arrival, I didn’t think of any of them because I was immersed in the film I was watching right there and then. Everybody is different, but I never associate music with other films I’ve seen before. Unless they started playing the Batman theme, then that’s an exception lol.

              My suggestion is give it another chance, people are judging it pretty harshly, but when you watch it again, notice the cinematography, the unique shots, the framing, and get immersed in the tone and feeling of the movie and let the music supplement those feelings.

              One of my friends didn’t like the movie and one of his main reasons/questions for disliking it was “why was there 12 ships?”. How can you dislike a movie based on such an open ended question lol. You could say “why wasnt there 11 ships? Why wasn’t there 27 ships? etc.” I can’t stand when people judge movies for the most ridiculous reasons, and then they are the ones who give poor reviews. To answer the question – I think it’s because they analysed and discovered 12 ships was the minimal number in order to get the world to work together. Anyways, totally irrelevant here, just ranting haha.

              • Adventurer

                Last paragraph +1. My cousin disliked it, and when I asked why, he said “how did they decrypt an alien language within a month? It was too fast paced”. I laughed, because it was a good question. Just imagine how much the action fans would hate this movie if it was slower. lol

        • AyeAye

          “First of all they stole the music from Shutter Island as its main theme, then every time they are in the space ship, you think something excited is going to happen, then they just draw another ink circle, thats slightly different than the previous circle. And they do this like 5 times in the movie. The movie was so boring and unclimatic.”

          Congratulations, you win the award for ignorance. Using an unoriginal score does not reduce the quality of the movie in any way. The Richter’s composition was used in another film before Shutter Island FYI. Does that make Shutter Island an utter piece of garbage? No.

          Secondly, I don’t think you understood the point of Arrival. If you expected it to be exciting then you were stupid for watching it in the first place. You want action? Watch Transformers or some other superhero show. Arrival was not meant to be an action movie with extravagant special effects. It was not about fighting against aliens. It was about communication. The fact that they traded off special effects for a over introspective drama and a disarrayed timeline should have made it obvious. The fact that they traded off extravagance for incredible editing and cinematography should have made it obvious that it was not meant to be a movie which incites excitement but rather thought.

          “Unclimatic”? You clearly did not understand the movie then. It was the most climatic movie among the nominees here. From starting till end it was shrouded in angst yet calmness.

          Charlie Sheen’s movie was superior than Arrival? There goes your credibility. Good endeavor at being constructive.

          • Kristians Fukss

            Thank you! Excellent strike back, I think if someone hates Arrival is just because they didn’t understand it or they have been watching action films all of their life and they don’t understand one that’s not.

  • Adventurer

    La La Land looking weak for screenplay (losing BAFTA hurt a lot), and MBtS missing out on Editing levels this category in favour of Moonlight.

    • Luke Parker

      But Moonlight didn’t win at all at BAFTA

      • Adventurer

        Moonlight was in original category at BAFTA though.

  • Derrick

    I have a feeling there will be a upset at the Oscars…………..And I hope I’m right! Really don’t want La La Land to win!

  • Michael Eduard Gschwandtner

    There is really no way that LaLaLand won’t win.
    Hacksaw Ridge is out because of no screenplay nomination, we saw how important that is last year.
    Hell Or High Water is also impossible. As it lacks a directing nomination and it had won nothing that cares.
    Fences and MBTS feel like being a reasonable choice, but did not win anything big in the last weeks.
    The same for Moonlight, which had no victories since the Globes, so the momentum is kind of gone.
    Not naming Amy Adams seems to be the end for Arrival.
    Lion has a momentum but I don’t see more than one Award going to it.
    Hidden Figures cannot win anything, it would even be a surprise if it wins screenplay. And it lacks a directing AND an editing nomination.
    LaLaLand is most likely to win more than 8 Awards in all categories that matters (directing, Editing, one acting, maybe also screenplay), so it is the only reasonable choice this year.

  • Rupert Stilinski

    Moonlight touched on a subject that I don’t think has ever been approached the same way before. It was perfectly done. Beautifully shot and I love that the director didn’t throw the whole “drive-by shootings, pimps smacking hoes” cliche of the ghetto. He left a human element to it, making it impossible to not feel for the main character and his struggle with not only being homosexual, but being homosexual in probably the least tolerant environment. Unless you’re Antoine Dobson.

    Fences was pure garbage. Denzel basically doing his best Robin Williams improv in the backyard of a row home. I felt uncomfortable the entire time. Over acted and it went nowhere.

    Lion is gripping, emotional and definitely the feel good movie in the list of nominations. I really like this film and wouldn’t be surprised if it won.

    La La Land is going to win though. It’s terrible. It’s not Singing in the Rain, Grease or even Chicago. But like the Artist, you will like it because Hollywood says you will like it. A 2 hour film starring a rock would get an 8.5 score on IMDB if Hollywood swoons over it.

    Hidden Figures was a fun watch and it was a great lesson for my kids. A lot easier than explaining Moonlight to my 9 year old. I’d like to see it win also, those women all put on amazing performances. I would’ve like to see a sh*t pie, but they kept it clean.

    Manchesssssssssssssssssssssssstttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr By the Sea. The way I wrote that was shorter than the film with a better ending.

    Arrival. My most anticipated film to watch when the screeners started coming. Winner of the best nap I have taken in 2017. I did wake up and watch it though only to realize why I took a nap.

    Hacksaw Ridge. Two words… Torso Shield. Whoever said “history” “epic” “as good as Saving Private Ryan”. Two words… Torso Shield. If this wins it’s because Mel has someone’s nuts in a vice. Entertaining like Rocky 4. DOUBLE MUSIC MONTAGES!

    Hell or High Water. Nobody has seen it. I loved it and watched it twice. Fantastic story, nice Western feel to it and some awesome acting. I’d like to see this win.

    Overall… My hopes are for Moonlight, my shocker would be Hell or High Water and my prediction is La La Land.

    • Derrick

      I saw ‘Moonlight’ last night and it was a touching film. I really hope it wins; I would also like to see ‘Hidden Figures’ win too because I enjoyed this film also. I really don’t see what the hype is about ‘La La Land’………..really hope it doesn’t win! I will see ‘Lion’ later in the week

      • Rupert Stilinski

        I have watched every film and then some and honestly La La Land is good, kinda like Dirty Dancing was good and served it’s purpose. But best picture?

        In the words of Walter Sobchak: Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?

        • Derrick

          I will be watching Fences, Lion and Manchester By The Sea this week to give my opinion! Would like to see Hell or High Water

          • BottomLine

            Manchester wins the award for best depressing movie to see before attempting suicide. Kudos to Michelle Williams — she played her part masterfully.

            • Derrick

              I’ve seen Manchester By The Sea and it was blah……………..YES, I agree about Michelle Williams and Lucas Hedges was NOT bad!

        • AyeAye

          No. You’re not. La La Land winning Best Picture would be sacrilegious. The screenplay’s really badly developed really, the pacing is especially off.

        • rubagreta

          Dirty Dancing is still being rerun on cable stations. La La Land, like Chicago, will soon be forgotten.

    • BottomLine

      Your reviews were funny and TRUE! But I am hoping for LION to sweep. It was a perfect film-script, cast, acting, music, cinematography. God, I was overwhelmed with this movie. Everyone in the theater was crying.

    • rubagreta

      La La Land is not even Hairspray.

  • Reece

    Anyone else still super shocked with Hell or High Water landing a nom? I knew it was going to happen beforehand, but I was soooo happy for the film when it started to become a contender..!

    • AyeAye

      Nope. It was predictable. lol The only true surprise here was Hidden Figures displacing Silence.

      • Reece

        I wasn’t surprised Oscar nomination morning, but if you told me in August that it landed a nom, i’d be very surprised

  • rubagreta

    I think I would have enjoyed La La land more if it had gotten just good reviews. But it got great reviews, so I enjoyed it less.

    • Mister Sushi

      You shouldn’t let others’ opinions affect yours. This is why La La Land is beating Moonlight in the race.

      • GoodOne_NOW

        BUT ….. “Moonlight” could win the Oscar for BP just from the “guilt” apology vote. I even look for Oscars to go the the black maintenance crew.

        • Mister Sushi

          Well, you were very right. And honestly, I should have seen it coming beforehand. Quite upset with the results, but it’s already almost been a month, so whatever.

    • BottomLine

      I would have enjoyed La La Land more if they had a better cast and screenplay! Music was catchy. I can’t figure out how it got so many nominations.

      • rubagreta

        I thought Emma and Ryan were fine. Not sure who would have done a better job.

        The screenplay was weak, but more importantly, so was the soundtrack. “I Ran” was one of the more memorable tunes.

        Ever watch West Side Story? That’s what music is all about. Hairspray, which got nominated for nothing, blew La La Land out of the water.

    • AyeAye

      I would have enjoyed La La land if its vocals and dancing weren’t so bad, and if the screenplay was better and shorter (the movie’s about half an hour too long).

      • rubagreta

        I realize they are not Gene Kelly and Ginger Rogers, but I found them both pretty charming. The problem with the movie is that it really sagged in the middle. You are correct. A good editing/chopping job would have made it so much better. The last 30 minutes or so of the movie saved it for me.

        • AyeAye

          I zoned out once the two started the relationship, and nearly slept until the one woman play Stone did.

          • rubagreta

            You know, now that I think about it, I was pretty much in the same boat as you.

            • AyeAye

              I’ve noticed all of the movies Chazelle directed (that I’ve seen) have been like this. Whiplash – great starting and ending but the middle was muddled with unnecessary plot devices (the “crime drama” for example). LLL – great starting and ending but the middle was badly paced and lacked much development.

              • rubagreta

                I actually loved Whiplash. Have read a couple of good blogs where they thought it should have won best picture. Another described it as a great horror movie, which I thought hit the mark.

                • AyeAye

                  BP? No way. Birdman might be gimmicky, but both that and Boyhood were superior to Whiplash.The Grand Budapest Hotel was better as well.

                  • rubagreta

                    Didn’t see them.

  • life is a state of mind

    LA LA LAND is beautiful eye candy but very shallow – the epitome of Hollywood. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA is beautifully acted – Affleck should win. Jeff Bridges carries HELL OR HIGH WATER, adding zing to an unoriginal story. HIDDEN FIGURES is a movie about black people written to make white people feel good. It took a long, boring hour to understand ARRIVAL’s octopus ink. If it looks like a stage play and feels like a stage play, it must be FENCES. Just like DRIVING MISS DAISY, you can practically see the actors walking in and out of scenes. HACKSAW RIDGE is just another horrors-of-war movie to throw on the horrors-of-war pile. MOONLIGHT was very good and the cast was amazing but, just like BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, the Academy will be afraid to vote for it and will go CRASHing into LOS ANGELES LOS ANGELES LAND. LION is the best of the bunch, combining acting, writing, cinematography, editing and score. I’d love to see it win something – anything. Unfortunately the best pic of the year was only nominated for one Oscar…NOCTURNAL ANIMALS.

    • Mister Sushi

      i half agree with you. I think Nocturnal Animals was snubbed SO HARD, but I don’t think Hacksaw Ridge, Arrival, and Fences are as bad as you think.

  • DaKardii

    My final prediction on the winners of the Big 8 awards:

    Best Picture: La La Land

    Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

    Best Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

    Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)

    Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

    Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)

    Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Either Arrival, Moonlight, or Lion. It’s a tossup between those three.

    • Mister Sushi

      I think Moonlight will win Adapted Screenplay, but Lion could snatch it as well. Arrival had an excellent screenplay but I don’t think it’ll win.

  • Mister Sushi

    My favourite movie of the year was Moonlight, but La La Land will probably win.

  • BottomLine

    In my humble opinion 😉 (as a film festival organizer) is LION should win Best Picture and other categories as well. It was breathtaking, inspiring, intense, beautiful and inspiring. All the other movies have merit but LION is the very Best!

    • mh

      I agree. I just saw Moonlight, but LION was the best picture, far better than La La Land.

  • Derrick

    ‘Lion’ and ‘Moonlight’ both were best movies I’ve seen! ‘Lion’ is NOT gonna win. Hoping ‘Moonlight’ pulls an upset from ‘La La Land’ and win Best Picture. Saw MBTS Friday night and it was blah and I really wasn’t WOW’d by Casey Affleck’s performance. Michelle Williams outshined him

    • AyeAye

      I disagree highly. Williams did not outshine him. They parred with each other, while Affleck did NOT speech much during their scene, his face portrayed everything. It was reminiscent of the strong scene with Streep and Hoffman in Doubt, where they were trying to outshine each other.

      • Derrick

        I enjoyed ‘Doubt’ but thought Meryl was average in that movie as much as I love her acting!

        • AyeAye

          lol It was brilliant IMO I found it better than her performance in Iron Lady. Her jumping to a strong Bronx accent, her confrontation with Hoffman, and the ending scene were the strongest parts of the movie IMO (ofcourse along with the Davis scene).

    • GoodOne_NOW

      I would love to see Michelle Williams finally win, but trying to “make up” for last year it sounds like all the Oscars are destined for black hands this year. That’s fine if they give the best acting or screen-writing or whatever else it may be, but it sounds to me like Casey Affleck should win for Best Actor …. and would have before the back-stabbers started harping about some insignificant sex-related charges from YEARS ago.

  • Derrick

    Guys, I really think MOONLIGHT is going to pull an upset win at the Oscars NOW

    MOONLIGHT won WGA Original Screenplay over La La Land and Manchester By The Sea

    • AyeAye

      I’ve been saying that for some time now. La La Land looking weak for Screenplay has good chances of derailing Best Picture dreams. While Screenplay alone doesn’t determine the win, but it sets a precedent.

      • Reece

        I find it to be too little of a nitpick though. It has PGA, DGA, GG, BAFTA. Moonlight just has WGA, it would be a massive upset imo for Moonlight to win. I think it’s a Birdman vs Boyhood situation.

        • Reece

          I think that this is the order:
          1. La La Land
          2. Moonlight
          3. Manchester, Arrival, Hidden Figures, Lion
          4. Hacksaw, Fences, Hell or High Water

        • AyeAye

          DGA doesn’t shape BP win though. And PGA (infact PGA missed just last year), GG (which is very inaccurate for BP wins) and BAFTA have all missed before. While WGA has missed as well, a Screenplay win for Moonlight would increase its chances by setting a precedent.

    • BTS

      Remember, the Academy as a whole chooses the winner for each category, so while the DGA, WGA, SAG, etc can gives as an insight of who might win, it’s not set in stone… anything could happen

      • Derrick

        Yes……………..anything could happen and you’re right!
        But, I still think MOONLIGHT could pull an upset!

    • DaKardii

      And you were right.

      • Derrick

        DAMN right! I knew MOONLIGHT was going to win!

  • Aaron

    Best Picture: La La Land
    Best Director: Damien Chazelle-La La Land
    Best Actor: Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman-Jackie
    Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
    Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis-Fences
    Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
    Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
    Best Film Editing: La La Land
    Best Cinematography: Arrival
    Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America

    Everyone seems to be in love with La La Land, and although I certainly don’t think it’s the best film of the year, I think it’s going to take home the top two awards. Potential spoilers include Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. Casey will “upset” Denzel, if you want to call that an upset, and Natalie should/will rightfully win Best Actress. It’ll be a close battle between Zootopia and Kubo for Animated Feature. Kubo is innovative and creative, but so is Zootopia, and Zootopia is also very culturally relevant. Zootopia has won the majority of the awards, and it’s Disney, so Zootopia will win. Besides, to be honest, Zootopia is the better film anyway and it should win.

    • AyeAye

      MBtS is out of the running for BP because of its Editing miss. I’d put Arrival/Hacksaw Ridge above it. But the showdown is LLL v Moonlight.

  • AyeAye

    BP – Moonlight
    Director – Chazelle
    Actor – Affleck
    Actress – Huppert
    S. Actor – Ali
    S. Actress – Davis
    Original Screenplay – MBtS
    Adapted Screenplay – Moonlight
    Animated Feature – Kubo. The VFX nom and BAFTA win put its chances above Zootopia. If the latter wins, it’d be only because of the politics.
    Editing – LLL (Arrival should win though IMO, better editing)
    Production Design – LLL (the ADG win locked it, but FB should win IMO)
    Cinematography – LLL
    Costume – Jackie
    Make-up – Star Trek Beyond
    Sound Mixing – LLL
    Sound Editing – Hacksaw Ridge
    VFX – Jungle Book.
    Score – LLL
    Original Song – LLL
    Foreign Language film – Land of Mine (The Salesman might take it, but I want Land of Mine to win).

  • Jared

    I loved la la land and would be okay with it winning although I prefer Moonlight and Arrival. I think it will go to La La Land or Moonlight. If its not one of those it will be manchester or Hidden Figures which I hope doesn’t happen because those are the two I liked the least

    • EricD.

      I’ve only had a chance to see Hell or High Water, and Moonlight. My pick would be Moonlight, although I loved Hell or High Water.

  • Lani Stenvert

    Lion was brilliant. Lovely and sad

  • Pablo

    We know which movie is winning this. Nevertheless, I’m happy that this years nominees are all movies that actually deserve that recognition.

  • Adventurer

    My final predictions on who’ll win:
    Picture – Moonlight
    Director – La La Land
    Screenplays – Manchester by the Sea & Moonlight
    Actor – Affleck
    Actress – Huppert
    Supporting Actor – Ali
    Supporting Actress – Davis
    Art Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Song – La La Land
    Costumes – Jackie
    Sound Editing and Mixing – Hacksaw Ridge
    Animated Feature – Kubo & the Two Strings
    Animated Short – Pearl
    Foreign Film – Land of Mine
    Make-up – Star Trek Beyond
    Visual Effects – The Jungle Book
    Documentary Feature – 13th
    Documentary Short – The White Helmet

    My reasoning for Best Picture is what I’ve repeated below. Screenplay miss, and it being a musical is a big factor, which takes me to the next big movie – Moonlight, screenplay is a lock and didn’t miss out from being nominated in other important categories like Manchester by the Sea did. La La Land is not a contender for screenplay at all, MBtS is gonna take Original while Moonlight will take Adapted.

    Affleck winning Actor has been long coming now as it swept EVERYTHING except for SAGs. BAFTA miss for Washington’s gotta hurt and the former’s scandal’s long forgotten (it resurfaced just before SAGs). As for Actress, I’ve belaboured between Huppert, Stone and Portman for the past few days. Portman’s winning just some years ago is gonna hurt. Stone is a fresh face and MIGHT just take it like she swept BAFTA and SAGs, but my bets are on Huppert as she’s a veteran long overdue for a win. Ali’s miss at the BAFTA is gonna hurt, not gonna lie. Patel could upset him, but my bets are still on him. Davis is the EASIEST prediction Academy has had this year.

    Kubo’s VFX nod + BAFTA win will haunt Zootopia. Plus Laika’s long overdue. And Pearl swept Annie, so my bets are on it, but I liked Pear Cider and Borrowed Time very much as well.

    As for the technical awards, there’s no need to reiterate the reasons. Sound Editing and Mixing might just go to La La Land BUT war movies do as well as musicals, and I don’t see La La Land taking everything. Jackie’s been the only contender for Jackie, while Star Trek will repeat its previous win.

    Documentary feature, I do not see OJ winning it. It’s a topic which has been repeated WAYYYYYY too much for its own good. 13th’s gonna take this. As for Doc short, the travel ban might just push voters to vote for the White Helmets, but Joe’s Violin might just upset it. Let’s see.

    Foreign film is a tough category. Land of Mine, Toni Erdman and the Salesman. All strong movies (even though I resent that Neruda missed out and the Handmaiden wasn’t sent as the SK contender). Toni Erdman have very low chances to win as one of its competition is an Iranian movie with its producers caught between the travel ban anyone (which might’ve stirred up voters) while the other is a war film, and let’s face it Academy loves war films.

  • Barry Allen

    I really hope Andrew Garfield will win. He was amazing in Hacksaw Ridge

  • JJN

    Although there has been a bit of a backlash against La La Land, I still say it holds on for the win. The main reason is that it’s well liked in Hollywood and the anti-LLL vote is split between hard-charging Lion and Hidden Figures and Moonlight, which I think has faded since the start of the year.

    My predictions for some of the other major categories

    Director: Chazelle
    Actor: Washington
    Actress: Stone
    Supporting Actor: Ali
    Supporting Actress: Davis
    Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
    Adapted Screenplay: Arrival (major upset of the night)
    Cinematography: La La Land
    Editing: La La Land
    Documentary: OJ
    Animated Feature: Zootopia

  • Derrick

    AND WHAT DID I TELL YOU GUYS????
    DIDN’T I TELL YOU THAT MOONLIGHT WAS GOING TO PULL AN UPSET WIN FOR BEST PICTURE????

    The Academy made a mistake that’s gonna cause backlash!

    Congrats to Moonlight!

    • AyeAye

      Nah. The only backlash this will cause is about the mix-up.

      • Derrick

        That’s what I meant, the mix-up.
        I was shouting and jumping over the moon over Moonlight’s win

  • AyeAye

    HAHAHA I told you all Moonlight was gonna WIN and it did. Never brush off Screenplays interms of setting Best Picture precedence. Just looking at PGA is NOT enough.

    True surprises were Make-Up, Costume, and Sound Mixing. It was extremely surprising that La La land lost Mixing and Hacksaw Ridge lost Sound Editing. But happy for Arrival.

    Zootopia and Stone were the most undeserving winners on the other hand. Academy again shows its ignorance for Stop Motion. Kubo as a movie was way better. Better editing, very high quality stop motion animation, excellent score, and excellent VFX. What did Zootopia have? Nothing, only good thing about it was its topic, which it didn’t handle well either. As for Stone, Huppert and Portman acted circles around her, yet she somehow won. It’s an atrocity.

    Denzel’s face when Affleck won was priceless. Man, atleast try to act happy if you didn’t win. It doesn’t speak well for a veteran Oscar winner like him to make a bitchface when others win.

    • Calvin Damon

      While I prefer Kubo over Zootopia, they are both excellent and it is so close to me that I really don’t mind. Same with Natalie Portman over Emma Stone. The love for Isabelle Huppert is something I will never understand. I mean, she was pretty good, but besides the split second of shock when the intruder breaks in for the first time, there really isn’t anything extraordinary about her performance. I’m so glad Affleck won over Denzel. Man is Affleck an awkward public speaker though.

      • AyeAye

        Zootopia’s best attribute was its animation. Whereas Kubo had a really good score as well as visual effects. It was a better made film than Zootopia as a whole. But I actually didn’t expect Kubo to win, Academy doesn’t like SMA and everyone knows that by now. I hope AMPAS enlists animators to vote for Animated feature in the future but that doesn’t seem likely. And until then, I don’t think anything other than CGI will win. Which also makes the technical achievement awards shallow and pointless.

        The best part by Huppert for me was when she randomly announces she was raped and is like “I just wanna throw this out there that I was raped but it wasn’t a big deal, so don’t worry about me”. It was morbidly hilarious. Her scene with her neighbour were also brilliant, the expressions spoke everything. The only part where I found Emma good was the one woman play and the one scene after that (when she meets Ryan). As for Portman, I did not actually expect her to win (since she already won like 5 years ago). But she was better than Stone as well. She nailed the accent and mannerism.

        • JJN

          The animators have the Annie Awards, where they voted for Zootopia for Best Picture and most of the significant individual awards (directing, writing, voice acting, character design, storyboarding). So what would have been different if they were most of the voters? Disney/Pixar are generally pretty well regarded within the animation field.

          Also, you shouldn’t say that the Academy voters are inept simply because they didn’t pick your favorite. Zootopia was well-loved by fans, well-rated by critics, and well-received by the press/media. It picked up AFI, Critics Choice, PGA, Golden Globes, and many of the Annie Awards. Beyond the theme, it’s a likable action-comedy buddy cop flick with engaging characters and good dialogue. It’s a reasonable and defensible choice. Just not one you agree with.

          • AyeAye

            I don’t rely an Annie Awards, just until some years ago anyone could buy a membership and vote for it. Many studios (including Disney btw) still don’t find the award credible and neither do I. Again, a more diverse animation voting group would include of not just CGI animators. In the western animated world, majority of the movies are CGI. Hence making the base widely biased against Stop motion or handsketched.

            Actually, there have been number of articles about Academy voters being inept at choosing animated feature. Which is one of the reason even before this, I didn’t take it seriously. But this confirmed it for me. As for being well-liked, it doesn’t necessarily merit awards. Civil War is a very well liked movies, liked by critics, fans and media. I don’t see Oscar raining down on it. As for AFI, someone has summarised AFI very well in the BP page.

            • JJN

              I’m guessing you’re referring to that fiasco with Dream Works about a decade ago? They did take steps to clear that up and there’s more respect for the awards now. Some still think it has a DW bias, but they really weren’t a factor in this year’s race.

              There is definitely a problem with uninformed or lazy voters across the Academy and animated film is no exception. People just watch a couple of the leading contenders or vote for the one they’ve heard of or a friend has worked on. And there are biases in the various categories. In BP it’s tough for a foreign film to get nominated or win. But i wouldn’t say that the Animation award stands out as being particularly poorly awarded.

              But overall, the Animated Feature nominations have been pretty diverse — 12 stop motion nominees, 21 traditionally animated ones, 13 foreign films. Lots of indie films in the mix. A SMA won in 2005 and a foreign-language film in 2002. But I do admit that the major CGI films compose most of the recent winners. Disney/Pixar is on a hot streak and has won 9 of the last 11, including the last 5. I think there have been a few weak winners in that time (Big Hero 6/Brave), and it would have been nice if something else had won in those years.

  • DaKardii

    The only ones I made predictions about were Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay. I got all of them right except Best Picture (I predicted La La Land, Moonlight won).

  • Tee

    I was always an advocate for the idea of there being a split this season in Director/Picture.

  • adertamilka .

    You can hate all you want but let’s not pretend that Moonlight would have won if it hadn’t been for #OscarsSoWhite and the Trump policies.