2015 Oscar Predictions





The following two tabs change content below.

Clayton Davis

Editor-in-Chief & Owner at The Awards Circuit
Clayton Davis started to write professionally in his sophomore year of college when Johnny Alba, the editor and owner of the old Oscar prediction site, The Oscar Igloo, had an opening for staff writers. Clayton wrote for The Igloo for nearly four years before being appointed editor and revamping and renaming The Oscar Igloo into the now popular mega-site, The Awards Circuit. Since then, Clayton has become a proud member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to awards season show, The Critics Choice Awards. Most recently, Clayton is a now an active member of the International Press Academy, which hosts the popular Satellite Awards as well as the newly integrated Broadcast Television Journalists Association, which hosts the Critics Choice Television Awards. In June 2014 he became the year's first accepted member to New York Film Critics Online. He has been quoted in various outlets (CNN.com, Bloomberg.com, TheWrap.com, AceShowbiz.com, SlashFilm.com, ScottFeinberg.com) and continues to raise the bar for film-talking enthusiasts around the globe.
  • jmlatinsir2

    can I make a suggestion. instead of having the log in and log out tab under each item,,, why don’t you just put it on the home page on the banner… it will make it a lot easier.

  • jmlatinsir2

    and I tried to check out your staff predictions and couldn’t get in.

  • jmlatinsir2

    thanks for the updates. great job.

  • jmlatinsir2

    Great job on the updates. Now we’re cooking.

  • http://www.amateur-24.de/189/FAQ/25 Fotze

    I’m extremely impressed together with your writing skills and also with the format for your weblog. Is this a paid topic or did you modify it your self? Either way stay up the nice high quality writing, it’s rare to peer a nice blog like this one nowadays..

  • jmlatinsir2

    Love the new format. thanks.

  • Emma

    Wow. Cool Oscar predictions! Very nice and well thought out. And I’m enjoying the updates.:) Although, I’m kind of surprised that there is no mention of “Song of the Lonely Mountain” from The Hobbit for Best Original Song. Even though some of the lyrics came from the book, the song itself is still quite original and was written especially for the movie. I also find it interesting that you don’t have a section for Live Action Short Film yet, even though a shortlist was released a while back talking about some of the popular short films released and the big contenders for this year.

  • Roberto Hevia

    I’m glad to see “The Intouchables” as the frontrunner in the foreing film category. For me, is one of the bests pictures of the year. Great performances and a delightful script.

    And It’s great to see Looper in the original script. category. Is a favorite of mine!

  • John Doe

    man your really ignorant for snubbing Django Unchained so consitantely… Lol the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel over Django??? get real….

  • Patrick

    You said in Best Original Screenplay prediction that Tarantino was the only previous winner. However, Mark Boal also won in 2009 (beating Tarantino coincidentally). I think this, at the very least, gives Tarantino an edge over Boal.

    Also your link to Original Screenplay leads to Adapted Screenplay.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=26801810 Clayton Davis

      Thank you for pointing out. Both fixed.

  • steve

    Hoping for Phoenix to pull it out. Politics aside, he did give the best performance. Maybe he can pull off BAFTA (though it is highly unlikely considering it’s practically DDL’s home turf). Riva would be a nice surprise. I think they’d acknowledge that an 85 yr old did the best job this past year before they gave an award to a 9 yr old. Chastain would be great too. As long as it’s not Lawrence. Not yet. In supporting I’ll pull for Hoffman and Adams. The Master shouldn’t be empty handed considering it’s a master class in acting.

  • http://delightfullyrandom.tumblr.com Sadie

    I understand perfectly your position on Animated feature. It’s a very competitive category this year and honestly, it could be anyone (although I think Pirates is a long shot). I don’t think the Globe’s win for Brave is a reliable predictor, as the Globes always go for the biggest star, and in this category, Pixar is the equivalent of that. My money is on ParaNorman because it has won the most critics awards. But by traditional Oscar logic, Frankenweenie has a big chance. Its homage to classic horror films will resonate with the Academy, plus Burton has the overdue factor and this movie certainly has his personal seal without being too creepy.

    Check my predictions at http://delightfullyrandom.tumblr.com/post/41151448206/my-oscar-predictions

  • Scott Campbell

    From makeup down to original song, when I click on a category it just takes me to a page with the graphic used for category name. Also, live action short and documentary short takes me to a screen saying “sample entry name” instead of the nominees and your predictions..

    • Scott Campbell

      Sorry, i see the predictions for live action and documentary shorts…the other problem still persists though.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=26801810 Clayton Davis

        Thanks for pointing out. Its fixed now.

  • Ben

    You’ve got the Documentary Short and Live Action Short flip flopped.

  • Jack


    PICTURE: Argo
    DIRECTOR: Ang lee
    ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
    ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    EDITING: Argo
    COSTUME: Anna Karenina
    MAKE-UP: Les Miserables
    VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
    SCORE: Life of Pi
    SONG: Skyfall
    SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables
    ANIMATED: Wreck It Ralph
    DOCUMENTARY: Searching for Sugarman
    FOREIGN: Amour

  • ginna dileo

    Just saw a screening of luc besson’s malavita…Michelle Pfeiffer is awesome…the young boy warren.. should also be considered for supporting actor..John D’Leo

  • Billie

    Interesting list. But shouldn’t the “Makeup” category be changed to “Makeup & Hairstyling”? Since the Academy recently changed it to add the hairstyling part to it.

  • Antony

    Surely Amy Adams- does it really matter about the performance !!l! and finally Johnny Depp and Julianne Moore- crikey this could be the ultimate ‘and finally the Oscar is awarded to. !!

  • adnan


  • Baggins

    best picture: Interstellar, Inherent Vice, Birdman, Foxcatcher, Into The Woods, Fury, Gone Girl
    Winner: Fury
    will change my predictions based on news

  • Connor

    You’ve updated Picture and up to Original Screenplay, but when are you going to adapted and the rest?

  • Luke McGowan

    Brendan Gleeson and Phillip Seymour Hoffman should be much higher on your predictions I feel. You have people like Bernal and Gyllenhaal ahead of Hoffman, and I feel the posthumous beloved four time nominee is much more likely to get nominated than Bernal who I’ve never heard of and there is pretty much no basis for saying he’ll get it. Gleeson is less likely yes, but at least we’ve seen him – many of the others are based purely on their celebrity (Sandler, Costner, Bale) and I think it would make more sense to place higher expectations on a movie whose success we can actually gauge at this point.

    Shailene Woodley should also be much much higher. Kidman has had one good movie in the last ten years, and expectations were high for Grace of Monaco if you recall. Probably a bit unwarranted to place her in 9th spot. The Hundred Foot Journey is getting middling reviews and is definitely not the sort of film Oscars go for. Shailene should be cracking your top 12 at least – again, because we’ve seen her and haven’t seen so many of the others at this point.

  • Lana

    Waiting for Katherine Waterston to breakout in Inherent Vice so she can land in Supporting Actress…

  • L990227

    - Best Picture: 1. Birdman
    2. Boyhood
    3. Foxcatcher
    4. Fury
    5. Gone Girl
    6. The Imitation Game
    7. Inherent Vice
    8. Interstellar
    9. Unbroken

    Best Director: 1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman
    2. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
    3. Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice
    4. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar
    5. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken

    Best Actor: 1. Michael Keaton – Birdman
    2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
    3. Brad Pitt – Fury
    4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The imitation Game
    5. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice

    Best Actress: 1. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    2. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    4. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    5. Reese Witherspoon – Wild

    Best Supporting Actor: 1. Edward Norton – Birdman
    2. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    3. Logan Lerman – Fury
    4. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    5. JK Simmons – Whiplash

    Best Supporting Actress: 1. Emma Stone – Birdman
    2. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    3. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    4. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    5. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods

    (No Specific Order)

  • L990227

    Top 20 for each acting category (Alphabetical order):

    – Ben Affleck – Gone Girl
    – Steve Carrell – Foxcatcher
    – Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
    – Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
    – Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
    – Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
    – Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
    – Michael Keaton – Birdman
    – Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
    – Bill Murray – St. Vincent
    – Jack O’Connell – Unbroken
    – David Oyelowo – Selma
    – Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
    – Brad Pitt – Fury
    – Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
    – Jeremy Renner – Kill the Messenger
    – Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
    – Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher
    – Mark Wahlberg – The Gambler
    – Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes

    – Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    – Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
    – Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    – Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
    – Marion Cotillard – The immigrant
    – Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
    – Rosario Dawson – Top Five
    – Anne Hathaway – Interstellar
    – Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
    – Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
    – Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
    – Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
    – Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey
    – Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    – Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    – Maggie Smith – My Old Lady
    – Hilary Swank – The Homesman
    – Mia Wasikowska – Tracks
    – Reese Witherspoon – Wild
    – Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars

    – Casey Affleck – Interstellar
    – Jon Bernthal – Fury
    – Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    – Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year
    – Johnny Depp – Into the Woods
    – Ansel Elgort – Men, Women & Children
    – Domhnall Gleeson – Unbroken
    – John Goodman – The Gambler
    – Neil Patrick Harris – Gone Girl
    – Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
    – Takamasa Isihara – Unbroken
    – Logan Lerman – Fury
    – Dean Norris – Men, Women & Children
    – Edward Norton – Birdman
    – Tim Roth – Selma
    – Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    – Adam Sandler – Men, Women & Children
    – JK Simmons – Whiplash
    – Tom Wilkinson – Selma
    – Owen Wilson – Inherent Vice

    – Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    – Jessica Chastain – Interstellar
    – Carrie Coon – Gone Girl
    – Viola Davis – Get on Up
    – Laura Dern – Wild
    – Carmen Ejogo – Selma
    – Jennifer Garner – Men, Women & Children
    – Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods
    – Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    – Jessica Lange – The Gambler
    – Jena Malone – Inherent Vice
    – Melissa McCarthy – St. Vincent
    – Sienna Miller – American Sniper
    – Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars
    – Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher
    – Kristen Stewart – Still Alice
    – Emma Stone – Birdman
    – Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
    – Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    – Naomi Watts – St. Vincent

  • L990227

    I have the feeling that Fury will be one of the best movies of the year and I personally think that it has a real chance at been nominated for:
    – Best Picture
    – Best Director – David Ayer
    – Best Actor – Brad Pitt
    – Best Supporting Actor – Logan Lerman
    – Best Original Screenplay – David Ayer
    – Best Film Editing – Dody Dorn
    – Best Cinematography – Roman Vasyanov
    – Best Original Score – Steven Price
    – Best Sound Mixing
    – Best Sound Editing
    – Best Visual Effects

    • Tran Dan Chi

      Wow. You really are overestimating Fury. I get the sense that you haven’t seen Imitation Game, or Boyhood, or Interstellar, or Birdman, or basically any films in the predictions other than Fury. Fury had it’s own moments, but just to get nominated is pretty hard (From the first to the fifth categories that you fit it in) let alone just winning some. Brad Pitt wasn’t a good fit for Wardaddy, Logan Lerman did a decent job, but much more disappointing than other in contention like Edward Norton or JK SIMMONS.

  • luis calixtro

    I think you guys are really overestimating Fury.

  • davi

    I think Joaquin Phoenix should be one of the main guy in the race of best actor based on the performances we’ve seen. It’s unfair to put him in the 17th. Inherent vice shows him that he is not only a good actor, but also a versatile one. He is so great in his comic version.

    • DocJohn90

      “It’s unfair”? Dude, it’s an opinion. That doesn’t really fall into “fair/unfair” category. They’re looking at what they think will be the strongest contenders and what they think will get nominated.

  • Shay

    best supporting actress
    Patricia Arquette
    Keira Knightley
    Jessica Chastain
    Sienna Miller (winner)
    Carmen Ejogo

  • L990227

    Acting Categories Possibilities:

    1. Michael Keaton – Birdman
    2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
    3. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
    4. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
    5. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
    6. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
    7. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken
    8. David Oyelowo – Selma
    9. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
    10. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
    11. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
    12. Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
    13. Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher
    14. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
    15. Bill Murray – St. Vincent

    1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    2. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
    3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    4. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
    5. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
    6. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    7. Hilary Swank – The Homesman
    8. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
    9. Anne Hathaway – Interstellar
    10. Jennifer Aniston – Cake
    11. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars
    12. Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
    13. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
    14. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
    15. Keira Knightley – Begin Again

    1. JK Simmons – Whiplash
    2. Edward Norton – Birdman
    3. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    4. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    5. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
    6. Logan Lerman – Fury
    7. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods
    8. Takamasa Isihara – Unbroken
    9. Domhnall Gleeson – Unbroken
    10. Tim Roth – Selma
    11. John Goodman – The Gambler
    12. Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
    13. Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year
    14. Robert Duvall – The Judge
    15. Charlie Cox – The Theory of Everything

    1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    2. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    3. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
    4. Emma Stone – Birdman
    5. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    6. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    7. Laura Dern – Wild
    8. Carmen Ejogo – Selma
    9. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods
    10. Sienna Miller – American Sniper
    11. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl
    12. Kristen Stewart – Still Alice
    13. Jessica Chastain – Interstellar
    14. Rene Russo – Nightcrawler
    15. Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher

  • Luke McGowan

    Clayton I really like your predictions, but you are so blindly focused on your own opinions that they just seem unobjective. I get that these are your predictions, but to say that “Interstellar has lived up to the hype and then some” when it sits relatively divided at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, yet you keep it in your Best Picture/Director predictions, dumping Gone Girl (with much higher reviews) out of the top 10 because “there are some who didn’t LOVE the film”. If you’re going to use reviews as a part of your predictions, at least shoot for consistency. You’ve left out Fincher and Miller from Best Director in place of Jolie (who can’t even STAR in a good movie) and Nolan (who wasn’t directed for his best work, let alone this)

    • Jon Barrier

      You should see Interstellar again. I saw it the first time and I was disappointed, I suppose I was just so looking forward to it. But I saw it a second time, I knew the twist was coming, and everything that didn’t work the first time worked the second time. Never in my life have I seen a movie that changed so drastically upon second viewing. I found it to be very flawed and unsuccessful in its ambition the first time, but the second and third time I saw it I realized it was the greatest movie he’s ever made. Not telling you that your opinions wrong, but there are some movies that you have to see multiple times to truly appreciate.

      • Luke McGowan

        That may be true, but this isn’t about my own subjective belief, its about whether the Academy is likely to nominate Interstellar. Clayton reckons its lived up to its hype, but knocks out Gone Girl for some not having loved the film. I just want consistency because Clayton is the only Oscar predictor who seems to be counting Gone Girl out and I am not seeing any objective reason. He’s listed Rosamund Pike almost as an afterthought, refuses to count in Editing despite two Fincher films winning in the last few years, and keeps Fincher out the the Top 5 Directors in favour of Jolie who is completely untested.

        • JonRalphs

          Ratings and critics don’t mean schnapp.

          • Luke McGowan

            I agree, but if he’s counting it for several (The Judge, Inherent Vice) he should be consistent and consider them for Interstellar.

    • Benutty

      since when are reviews/Rotten Tomatoes scores ever a reliable Oscar indicator?

      • Luke McGowan

        Well bad reviews typically means you can count a film out. But what everyone seems to be missing is that I don’t think reviews mean anything, I just think that Clayton should consider reviews for all films if he’s going to count them for some.

  • Adrian

    Polish film “Ida” has a chance to nominations in the categories: “Best Motion Picture”, “Best Director”, “Best Supporting Actress”, “Best Original Screenplay” “Best Cinematograpgy” and “Best Foreign Language Film”. This movie has already won many awards.

  • I believe Logan Lerman has a descent shot for best supporting actor.

  • Tran Dan Chi

    Tough year indeed.
    Best picture (out of the 10 that you nominated)
    Winner: The Imitation Game
    In tight race: Selma; Boyhood
    May be in the top 3: Birdman; The Theory Of Everything
    Should have been in the top 10: Gone Girl
    Should have been out of the top 10: Into The Woods

    Best Actor:
    Winner (most likely): 1. Benedict Cumberbatch – Imitation Game
    In tight race: David Oleyowo – Selma; Michael Keaton – Birdman
    May be in contention: Eddie Redmayne – The Theory Of Everything; Steve Carell – Foxcatchern
    This is one that I would have no certainty

    Best Actress:
    Winner: 1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice (of course)
    In tight race: Reese Witherspoon – Wild; Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    May be in contention: Felicity Jones – The Theory Of Everything
    WTF is Into The Woods doing here ?
    Should have been in the top 5: Jennifer Aniston – Cake (weird huh ?)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Winner: JK Simmons – Whiplash (duh)
    In tight race: Edward Norton – Birdman
    In contention: Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

    Best Supporting Actress
    Winner: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    Toughest contender: Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year

    Best director:
    Winner: Either Linklater – Boyhood, Ava DuVurney – Selma or Tyldum – Imitation Game

    Original Screenplay
    I would have to go with Selma, although Birdman is just awesome

    Adapted screenplay
    Have to go with Imitation Game, although there’s a chance that Gone Girl could break it even

  • Benutty

    You have Interstellar getting 6 below-the-line nominations. As an awards “expert” surely you’re aware that since the “up to 10″ BP nominees rule was instated no film with 6+ nominations has missed out on a 7th BP nomination?

  • Sammi Luester

    Could this finally be the year where not one but TWO women are nominated for Best Director? I freaking hope so Clayton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would love to see more women be considered in other fields too, like Composer, Cinematographer, Editor, etc.

  • Charlie

    I really wish Miles Teller would get more attention for Whiplash. I thought he was terrific.

  • Bille Raymond

    You know, it always kind of annoys me when people say, “it was a bad movie despite the nomination”, when talking about categories like Production Design or Makeup & Hairstyling. It sometimes talked about by Clayton Davis or other contributers on this site. Seriously, the thing to always remember is, yes a movie can be terrible in general whether it’s bad writing and acting or whatever, BUT a movie can be bad and yet still have one or maybe two qualities that makes it EXCELLENT. For example the movie “The Tempest” got quite a lot of bad reviews, however the costume designs by Sandy Powell were absolutely mesmerizing, and that’s why the film got one nomination for Best Costume Design. Or the Jackass movie “Bad Grandpa” was considered bad and yet the only thing the critics thought was the one great quality of the film was the makeup design, and again that’s why it got the nomination for Makeup & Hairstyling. So a movie can be terrible, but if it has one thing about it that is top notch, it’s going to get a nomination. And that should be totally cool.

    Also calling the “hair” part of the category a “curveball throw” is kind of ridiculous since the makeup part is still there! And it’s still just as important. Besides the BAFTA awards have always had the category for “makeup and hair” so why can’t we? Personally I always thought something was missing when it was just called Best Makeup. I thought all of the categories were great and represented every aspect of filmmaking but there was one thing missing, and it was hair. So I’m glad they’ve added to it.