• Antony

    Surely Amy Adams- does it really matter about the performance !!l! and finally Johnny Depp and Julianne Moore- crikey this could be the ultimate ‘and finally the Oscar is awarded to. !!

  • adnan

    Exodus??

  • Baggins

    best picture: Interstellar, Inherent Vice, Birdman, Foxcatcher, Into The Woods, Fury, Gone Girl
    Winner: Fury
    will change my predictions based on news

  • Connor

    You’ve updated Picture and up to Original Screenplay, but when are you going to adapted and the rest?

  • Luke McGowan

    Brendan Gleeson and Phillip Seymour Hoffman should be much higher on your predictions I feel. You have people like Bernal and Gyllenhaal ahead of Hoffman, and I feel the posthumous beloved four time nominee is much more likely to get nominated than Bernal who I’ve never heard of and there is pretty much no basis for saying he’ll get it. Gleeson is less likely yes, but at least we’ve seen him – many of the others are based purely on their celebrity (Sandler, Costner, Bale) and I think it would make more sense to place higher expectations on a movie whose success we can actually gauge at this point.

    Shailene Woodley should also be much much higher. Kidman has had one good movie in the last ten years, and expectations were high for Grace of Monaco if you recall. Probably a bit unwarranted to place her in 9th spot. The Hundred Foot Journey is getting middling reviews and is definitely not the sort of film Oscars go for. Shailene should be cracking your top 12 at least – again, because we’ve seen her and haven’t seen so many of the others at this point.

  • Lana

    Waiting for Katherine Waterston to breakout in Inherent Vice so she can land in Supporting Actress…

  • L227

    – Best Picture: 1. Birdman
    2. Boyhood
    3. Foxcatcher
    4. Fury
    5. Gone Girl
    6. The Imitation Game
    7. Inherent Vice
    8. Interstellar
    9. Unbroken

    Best Director: 1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman
    2. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
    3. Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice
    4. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar
    5. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken

    Best Actor: 1. Michael Keaton – Birdman
    2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
    3. Brad Pitt – Fury
    4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The imitation Game
    5. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice

    Best Actress: 1. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    2. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    4. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    5. Reese Witherspoon – Wild

    Best Supporting Actor: 1. Edward Norton – Birdman
    2. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    3. Logan Lerman – Fury
    4. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    5. JK Simmons – Whiplash

    Best Supporting Actress: 1. Emma Stone – Birdman
    2. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    3. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    4. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    5. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods

    (No Specific Order)

  • L227

    Top 20 for each acting category (Alphabetical order):

    BEST ACTOR
    – Ben Affleck – Gone Girl
    – Steve Carrell – Foxcatcher
    – Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
    – Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
    – Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
    – Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
    – Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
    – Michael Keaton – Birdman
    – Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
    – Bill Murray – St. Vincent
    – Jack O’Connell – Unbroken
    – David Oyelowo – Selma
    – Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
    – Brad Pitt – Fury
    – Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
    – Jeremy Renner – Kill the Messenger
    – Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
    – Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher
    – Mark Wahlberg – The Gambler
    – Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes

    BEST ACTRESS
    – Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    – Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
    – Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    – Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
    – Marion Cotillard – The immigrant
    – Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
    – Rosario Dawson – Top Five
    – Anne Hathaway – Interstellar
    – Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
    – Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
    – Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
    – Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
    – Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey
    – Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    – Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    – Maggie Smith – My Old Lady
    – Hilary Swank – The Homesman
    – Mia Wasikowska – Tracks
    – Reese Witherspoon – Wild
    – Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    – Casey Affleck – Interstellar
    – Jon Bernthal – Fury
    – Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    – Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year
    – Johnny Depp – Into the Woods
    – Ansel Elgort – Men, Women & Children
    – Domhnall Gleeson – Unbroken
    – John Goodman – The Gambler
    – Neil Patrick Harris – Gone Girl
    – Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
    – Takamasa Isihara – Unbroken
    – Logan Lerman – Fury
    – Dean Norris – Men, Women & Children
    – Edward Norton – Birdman
    – Tim Roth – Selma
    – Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    – Adam Sandler – Men, Women & Children
    – JK Simmons – Whiplash
    – Tom Wilkinson – Selma
    – Owen Wilson – Inherent Vice

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    – Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    – Jessica Chastain – Interstellar
    – Carrie Coon – Gone Girl
    – Viola Davis – Get on Up
    – Laura Dern – Wild
    – Carmen Ejogo – Selma
    – Jennifer Garner – Men, Women & Children
    – Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods
    – Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    – Jessica Lange – The Gambler
    – Jena Malone – Inherent Vice
    – Melissa McCarthy – St. Vincent
    – Sienna Miller – American Sniper
    – Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars
    – Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher
    – Kristen Stewart – Still Alice
    – Emma Stone – Birdman
    – Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
    – Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    – Naomi Watts – St. Vincent

  • L227

    I have the feeling that Fury will be one of the best movies of the year and I personally think that it has a real chance at been nominated for:
    – Best Picture
    – Best Director – David Ayer
    – Best Actor – Brad Pitt
    – Best Supporting Actor – Logan Lerman
    – Best Original Screenplay – David Ayer
    – Best Film Editing – Dody Dorn
    – Best Cinematography – Roman Vasyanov
    – Best Original Score – Steven Price
    – Best Sound Mixing
    – Best Sound Editing
    – Best Visual Effects

    • Tran Dan Chi

      Wow. You really are overestimating Fury. I get the sense that you haven’t seen Imitation Game, or Boyhood, or Interstellar, or Birdman, or basically any films in the predictions other than Fury. Fury had it’s own moments, but just to get nominated is pretty hard (From the first to the fifth categories that you fit it in) let alone just winning some. Brad Pitt wasn’t a good fit for Wardaddy, Logan Lerman did a decent job, but much more disappointing than other in contention like Edward Norton or JK SIMMONS.

  • luis calixtro

    I think you guys are really overestimating Fury.

  • davi

    I think Joaquin Phoenix should be one of the main guy in the race of best actor based on the performances we’ve seen. It’s unfair to put him in the 17th. Inherent vice shows him that he is not only a good actor, but also a versatile one. He is so great in his comic version.

    • DocJohn90

      “It’s unfair”? Dude, it’s an opinion. That doesn’t really fall into “fair/unfair” category. They’re looking at what they think will be the strongest contenders and what they think will get nominated.

      • davi

        Yes, apology.. “unfair” was too harsh. I thought we’d been underestimating him 2 months ago, but now we have the list from critic groups, bfca, gg, and sg. He does make gg nom, but that’s not really something, right? Well yeah, i admit that Joaquin Phoenix is not really a strong contender. I’m a fan of his work, actually 🙁

  • Shay

    best supporting actress
    Patricia Arquette
    Keira Knightley
    Jessica Chastain
    Sienna Miller (winner)
    Carmen Ejogo

  • L227

    Acting Categories Possibilities:

    BEST ACTOR
    1. Michael Keaton – Birdman
    2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
    3. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
    4. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
    5. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
    6. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
    7. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken
    8. David Oyelowo – Selma
    9. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
    10. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
    11. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
    12. Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
    13. Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher
    14. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
    15. Bill Murray – St. Vincent

    BEST ACTRESS
    1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
    2. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
    3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    4. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
    5. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
    6. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    7. Hilary Swank – The Homesman
    8. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
    9. Anne Hathaway – Interstellar
    10. Jennifer Aniston – Cake
    11. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars
    12. Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
    13. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
    14. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
    15. Keira Knightley – Begin Again

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    1. JK Simmons – Whiplash
    2. Edward Norton – Birdman
    3. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
    4. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
    5. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
    6. Logan Lerman – Fury
    7. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods
    8. Takamasa Isihara – Unbroken
    9. Domhnall Gleeson – Unbroken
    10. Tim Roth – Selma
    11. John Goodman – The Gambler
    12. Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
    13. Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year
    14. Robert Duvall – The Judge
    15. Charlie Cox – The Theory of Everything

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    2. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    3. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
    4. Emma Stone – Birdman
    5. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
    6. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice
    7. Laura Dern – Wild
    8. Carmen Ejogo – Selma
    9. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods
    10. Sienna Miller – American Sniper
    11. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl
    12. Kristen Stewart – Still Alice
    13. Jessica Chastain – Interstellar
    14. Rene Russo – Nightcrawler
    15. Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher

  • Luke McGowan

    Clayton I really like your predictions, but you are so blindly focused on your own opinions that they just seem unobjective. I get that these are your predictions, but to say that “Interstellar has lived up to the hype and then some” when it sits relatively divided at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, yet you keep it in your Best Picture/Director predictions, dumping Gone Girl (with much higher reviews) out of the top 10 because “there are some who didn’t LOVE the film”. If you’re going to use reviews as a part of your predictions, at least shoot for consistency. You’ve left out Fincher and Miller from Best Director in place of Jolie (who can’t even STAR in a good movie) and Nolan (who wasn’t nominated for his best work, let alone this)

    • Jon Barrier

      You should see Interstellar again. I saw it the first time and I was disappointed, I suppose I was just so looking forward to it. But I saw it a second time, I knew the twist was coming, and everything that didn’t work the first time worked the second time. Never in my life have I seen a movie that changed so drastically upon second viewing. I found it to be very flawed and unsuccessful in its ambition the first time, but the second and third time I saw it I realized it was the greatest movie he’s ever made. Not telling you that your opinions wrong, but there are some movies that you have to see multiple times to truly appreciate.

      • Luke McGowan

        That may be true, but this isn’t about my own subjective belief, its about whether the Academy is likely to nominate Interstellar. Clayton reckons its lived up to its hype, but knocks out Gone Girl for some not having loved the film. I just want consistency because Clayton is the only Oscar predictor who seems to be counting Gone Girl out and I am not seeing any objective reason. He’s listed Rosamund Pike almost as an afterthought, refuses to count in Editing despite two Fincher films winning in the last few years, and keeps Fincher out the the Top 5 Directors in favour of Jolie who is completely untested.

        • JonRalphs

          Ratings and critics don’t mean schnapp.

          • Luke McGowan

            I agree, but if he’s counting it for several (The Judge, Inherent Vice) he should be consistent and consider them for Interstellar.

    • Benutty

      since when are reviews/Rotten Tomatoes scores ever a reliable Oscar indicator?

      • Luke McGowan

        Well bad reviews typically means you can count a film out. But what everyone seems to be missing is that I don’t think reviews mean anything, I just think that Clayton should consider reviews for all films if he’s going to count them for some.

  • Adrian

    Polish film “Ida” has a chance to nominations in the categories: “Best Motion Picture”, “Best Director”, “Best Supporting Actress”, “Best Original Screenplay” “Best Cinematograpgy” and “Best Foreign Language Film”. This movie has already won many awards.

  • I believe Logan Lerman has a descent shot for best supporting actor.

    • Luke McGowan

      He was good but not half as good as John Bernthal

  • Tran Dan Chi

    Tough year indeed.
    Best picture (out of the 10 that you nominated)
    Winner: The Imitation Game
    In tight race: Selma; Boyhood
    May be in the top 3: Birdman; The Theory Of Everything
    Should have been in the top 10: Gone Girl
    Should have been out of the top 10: Into The Woods

    Best Actor:
    Winner (most likely): 1. Benedict Cumberbatch – Imitation Game
    In tight race: David Oleyowo – Selma; Michael Keaton – Birdman
    May be in contention: Eddie Redmayne – The Theory Of Everything; Steve Carell – Foxcatchern
    This is one that I would have no certainty

    Best Actress:
    Winner: 1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice (of course)
    In tight race: Reese Witherspoon – Wild; Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    May be in contention: Felicity Jones – The Theory Of Everything
    WTF is Into The Woods doing here ?
    Should have been in the top 5: Jennifer Aniston – Cake (weird huh ?)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Winner: JK Simmons – Whiplash (duh)
    In tight race: Edward Norton – Birdman
    In contention: Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

    Best Supporting Actress
    Winner: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
    Toughest contender: Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year

    Best director:
    Winner: Either Linklater – Boyhood, Ava DuVurney – Selma or Tyldum – Imitation Game

    Original Screenplay
    I would have to go with Selma, although Birdman is just awesome

    Adapted screenplay
    Have to go with Imitation Game, although there’s a chance that Gone Girl could break it even

  • Benutty

    You have Interstellar getting 6 below-the-line nominations. As an awards “expert” surely you’re aware that since the “up to 10” BP nominees rule was instated no film with 6+ nominations has missed out on a 7th BP nomination?

  • Greg

    The official list of the nine possibilities of movies that could be nominated for Best Visual Effects got released.

    The list is:

    Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    Godzilla
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
    Interstellar
    Maleficent
    Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
    Transformers: Age of Extinction
    X-Men: Days of Future Past
    Guardians of the Galaxy
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    So since “Noah” isn’t on the contending list, I would cut it and replace it with Godzilla, which had amazing Visual Effects.

    (source: http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/daily-briefs/2014-12-07/gareth-edwards-godzilla-makes-oscars-visual-effects-shortlist/.81886)

    • Rex Waller

      Godzilla should only be nominated for most ridiculous screenplay of the year. What a horrible movie.

  • Sammi Luester

    Could this finally be the year where not one but TWO women are nominated for Best Director? I freaking hope so Clayton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would love to see more women be considered in other fields too, like Composer, Cinematographer, Editor, etc.

  • Charlie

    I really wish Miles Teller would get more attention for Whiplash. I thought he was terrific.

  • Bille Raymond

    You know, it always kind of annoys me when people say, “it was a bad movie despite the nomination”, when talking about categories like Production Design or Makeup & Hairstyling. It sometimes talked about by Clayton Davis or other contributers on this site. Seriously, the thing to always remember is, yes a movie can be terrible in general whether it’s bad writing and acting or whatever, BUT a movie can be bad and yet still have one or maybe two qualities that makes it EXCELLENT. For example the movie “The Tempest” got quite a lot of bad reviews, however the costume designs by Sandy Powell were absolutely mesmerizing, and that’s why the film got one nomination for Best Costume Design. Or the Jackass movie “Bad Grandpa” was considered bad and yet the only thing the critics thought was the one great quality of the film was the makeup design, and again that’s why it got the nomination for Makeup & Hairstyling. So a movie can be terrible, but if it has one thing about it that is top notch, it’s going to get a nomination. And that should be totally cool.

    Also calling the “hair” part of the category a “curveball throw” is kind of ridiculous since the makeup part is still there! And it’s still just as important. Besides the BAFTA awards have always had the category for “makeup and hair” so why can’t we? Personally I always thought something was missing when it was just called Best Makeup. I thought all of the categories were great and represented every aspect of filmmaking but there was one thing missing, and it was hair. So I’m glad they’ve added to it.

  • Sammi Luester

    Just so you know, it’s Rocks in my PocketS, it’s pockets as in plural. And the costume designers name is Consolata Boyle. Not Boyce!

  • davi

    I just wanna share what’s in my mind
    Best Picture:
    Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, Into the Woods. If there’s ten: A Most Violent Year
    Best Director:
    Richard Linklater, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Ava DuVernay, David Fincher, Wes Anderson
    Best Actor:
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, Eddie Redmayne, David Oyelowo, Steve Carell
    Best Actress:
    Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, Felicity Jones, Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston
    Best Supp.Actor:
    JK Simmons, Edward Norton, Ethan Hawke, Mark Ruffalo, Tom Wilkinson
    Best Supp.Actress:
    Patricia Arquette, Jessica Chastain, Emma Stone, Meryl Streep, Keira Knightley

    It may be too common prediction, it’s already been said everywhere, BUT given the circumstances, they DO have all what it takes, don’t they?

  • Toxic MOUTH

    Statistically , there is no way all the golden globe nominees go to the oscars. At least one or two candidates will be replaced by another one from the musical / comedy category or something completely unexpected. There is always a chance that one of the favourite films or performances of the critics will be over looked by the academy members. If they have a favourite film , they will give more nominations than the golden globe.

  • Catbonati

    Everyone’s forgetting The Homesman

  • Nick Fraser

    If we could swap Into the Woods for Gone Girl in BP slate, that would be perfect.

  • David M

    I’d knock out Foxcatcher before Into The Woods – good performances but a lousy movie.

  • Sammi Luester

    Seriously? You didn’t put Guardians of the Galaxy in the top three of predictions for Best Makeup & Hairstlying?! Wow

  • Luke McGowan

    I don’t understand the logic – Unbroken is bumped up because of a strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards, and one sentence later you say that because critics don’t vote we should ignore the reviews. So are we taking critics into account or not? You can’t have it both ways

  • Alex Dupont

    Unbroken is shit! Because of Jolie, not because of the story…Worst directing ever!

  • BJ

    Let the comic genre based movies be nominated for best picture for once. Guardians of the Galaxy and x-men days of future past deserved to be nominated best picture. They are both critically acclaimed pictures. Stop nominTed movies that are at the end of year. No wonder that dark knight got screw for best picture.

    • Rex Waller

      “The Dark Knight” is the most overrated movie of all time. Google overrated movie, and watch what pops up.

  • Baggins

    Am i the only one who thinks that boyhood is overated?

    • Luke McGowan

      Probably. I’m about the same age as the main character, so the nostalgia hit me like a freight train. Its long and uneventful but the direction and acting is amazing (though I thought the last twenty minutes should have been cut)

      • Baggins

        don’t get me wrong. i do believe that Boyhood is a decent film, but i don’t believe it deserves the universal praise. if it deserves any oscar nomination, its best supporting actor for Ethan Hawke. that was the only performance in the movie i thought stood out. the flow of the story was pretty good and i thought the overall message of the film really made you think, but it still has its moments of trying to be quirky and unique and it comes across as awkward.

        • Luke McGowan

          Arquette was just as good as Hawke. If anyone deserves a nomination its Linklater for Director

          • Baggins

            why? because he’s patient for 12 years?

            • Luke McGowan

              The fact that you just trivialised his achievement to “being patient” pretty much removes any credibility you might have in this argument hahaha

              • Baggins

                whatever, long story short, I won’t be routing for this film. IMITATION GAME FOR THE WIN!!!

                • Tovena Dan

                  Yup, Imitation Game was the best of the lot this year.

            • disqus_lI3fxXkYMr

              Directing Oscars often go to films that represent the signal achievement of a director’s career (vis: Gandhi). Who could argue that Boyhood isn’t Linklater’s?

              • Baggins

                I understand what you mean, but when I think of Linklater’s best achievement, I think of Dazed and confused. not this.

      • jmlatinsir

        The beauty of Boyhood is it’s universal appeal. Can’t think of too many people who won’t be able to relate to it on some personal level. It is beautifully acted, directed and written. It could have easily been really cynical or schmaltzy and the fact that Linklater kept the same tone and perspective and flowing seamlessly for 12 years is quite an accomplishment. It’s simplicity belies its worth. To me (tied with the amazing work on The Grand Budapest Hotel) are the best two films of the year and I believe both of them will hold up in years to come. Closing close behind is Birdman which I need to see a couple of more times to get it all. These are three daring films, atypical of the usual Hollywood slush, and the fact that they were so highly recognized is a signal to filmmakers out there that taking a risk can still be rewarded by the establishment.

    • Tovena Dan

      Boyhood was my least favorite of all the nominated films. 2.40 hours of nothingness and characters that non one cares about. It’s a gimmick film, but that’s all it has going for it.

  • Nick Fraser

    I still want Gone Girl to be nominated for BP. If Nightcrawler or American Sniper or even Grand Budapest Hotel have to go, I’m fine with it. Damn it, Academy, Gone Girl deserves this.

  • Alison Gray

    what is happening ????? there is a lot of big hitters missing from the best actor category Philip Seymour Hoffman (a most wanted man) steve carrel (foxcatcher) tom hardy (john locke) ralph fines (grand Budapest hotel). Also johnny depp for best supporting actor for in into the woods come on the academy !

  • Riya Khurana

    The excitement of Oscars has already been started. Both fans and celebrities are waiting for that moment. As we all know event start at Dolby Theatre and red carpet is waiting for all the celebrities.All are waiting to know two things only, “Who wear what??” and “Who are you wearing?” These are the two questions which are on everybody’s tongue.

    Oscar Sunday coverage all leads up to the main event, Oscars 2015 live from the Hollywood & Highland, with Oscar.com giving you a VIP pass behind-the-scenes at the Oscars throughout the day.

  • Baggins

    into the woods really wasn’t that good

    • Tovena Dan

      the stage version is much better. CBS taped the original Broadway production and aired it. It’s far superior to the Disneyfied bore.

  • frosty dufour

    Wait, I thought Grand Budapest Hotel was based on a Stephan Sweig story?

  • Michael Lindley Jones

    Don’t argue with an opinionated prediction if you haven’t seen all of the films.

  • Luke McGowan

    Clayton where are you? Its been days and you’ve not said a peep since the nominations came out

  • Nick Fraser

    American Sniper just up and stole everybody’s thunder. I’m throwing the rule book out the window this season after all that carnage and am just gonna sit back and watch the fireworks. Ten bucks says Cooper wins just to spite all the complaining.

    • Baggins

      I dont know, I think that Oscar might have Michael Keaton written all over it

  • Tovena Dan

    Boyhood was my least favorite. It’s a gimmick film, and there is no content there. Did not find any of the characters appealing. Imitation Game is my top pick. It’s a smart film that adroitly combines a personal narrative with a historical event. Well done!!!

    • Baggins

      agree with you all the way. Imitation game was great! I hope it takes both best picture and best director.

    • Alec Glass

      In my opinion, Imitation Game could have been a remotely good movie if not for a few things: first off, the immense embarassing, bordering on offensive historical inaccuracies or rather inventions: several aspects of it are completely fiction invented for the film. Also, its complete tiptoeing around the darker part of Alan Turing’s story specifically the period of time when he was persecuted by his country for being gay, sentenced to chemical castration, it was botched, lasting longer than it should have messing up his life even more, before he committed suicide. In other words, they focussed entirely on the patriotic aspect of the film with exactly one scene and a pre-credits sequence over them all happily burning the enigma machine all buddy-buddy devoted to the more challenging parts of the story and the tragedy of Alan Turing: how much he gave to a country which then pushed his success under the rug upon finding out he is gay and ruined his life. THAT is what needed to be in the movie: his accomplishments and hsi trials and struggles and the undue suffering he received, but god forbid the brits do anything unpatriotic. As the movie reads they’re saying hmmm he’s hiding something, what is it? oh… he’s gay. Well darn I guess we have to persecute him then. NOT the reality of the situation. Instead of including this they give various cuts to a horrifically schmaltzy backstory about his childhood that is also, yes, complete bulls**t. Fiction. Not to mention by structuring the screenplay so that we have this half-commitment to the story being told as a flashback and more flashbacks within that that are invented and it just muddles things up terribly and kills the momentum. Finally they reduce Turing to a stereotype to make it more oscar-baity and strangely perfectly geared towards Benedict Cumberbatch’s type. Alan turing was not some autistic alienated individual unable to communicate with real people and pick up on social interactions. He was reportedly very personable when he wanted to be. Children loved him. He had his ways of being odd according to accounts but not anywhere near the way he is written. So all in all, this movie felt just too much like exploitation for an oscar to me, looking to make the safest most conventional movie possible with absolutely no concern for telling the story as it needs to be told which is an immensely important responsibility of the filmmaker when tackling such a weighty subject. And I could maybe forgive all this just maaaaaybe if it also wasnt like every genius biopic that has ever been made ever. So to me, not my favorite, I would prefer to see Birdman win best picture, and would much rather have seen something a bit more daring and affecting such as Foxcatcher or Nightcrawler be nominated.

      • AndreRosaTheBucket

        I’m not disagreeing with you, but I feel that the film took a different direction from that, and it worked very well in my eyes. Now, they could have focused on him being gay a bit more, and it would have no doubt improved the view of him and the sacrifices he made. Nevertheless, I feel they focused on other sacrifices in the film, such as him basically inventing something that no one believed in but him and the time he took to make it. Yes, the flashbacks seemed out of place, and I feel the film would have been even better if they had just focused on the time when he was cracking enigma as opposed to going to past, then future, then present, and messing up the timeline like that. That being said, The Imitation Game is still my favorite out of the 8 films nominated, and I think that Benedict gives the best performance of any of the men nominated for Best Actor. The film was able to catch me in a story of a man who before the day I watched the film had no idea existed and make me want to know more about the man who helped win WWII, as well as lay the founding ground for computers today. But hey, everyone has their opinions.

        • Alec Glass

          Exactly, to each his own. To me, The Imitation Game decided not to consciously ignore the aspects of his homosexuality and tell the story of the Enigma on its own, which to me would have been fine, but when a movie tries to do something but won’t do it properly or fully, it immediately takes me out of the movie, and I could not even enjoy the movie, and its utter conventionality combined with it jumbled structure as it tried to do everything while staying as safe as possible meant that it left no lasting imprint in my mind. And Benedict Cumberbatch’s performance was excellent, to me the one thing worth honoring in the film (along with the score and the technical aspects such as costumes, etc.) even if I think it did not quite match some of the others this year. But like you said, if it profoundly affected you and you enjoyed it I can’t say your wrong: just my take

  • Clarinda Pelayo

    Oscars Academy Awards 2015 Full nominations List> OscarLiveStream.Com

  • Clarinda Pelayo

    Oscars 2015 FULL List of Nominations >>> OSCARLIVESTREAM.COM <<<

  • FM Talks

    I’m probably the only person that’s not surprised Aniston didn’t get nominated. I didn’t see the Academy taking her seriously after one good role and years of meh.

  • Guest

    Assuming he’ll update it Sunday at the start of Oscar week… too much stuff has gone down for him to be taking this long.

    • huh?

      • Tom

        Not to be mean or anything Clayton and I understand if your busy but you haven’t updated your latest predictions in 15 days. The BAFTA winners were announced and DGA awarded Alejandro G. Iñárritu with the prize, so a update would be helpful 🙂

  • Alec Glass

    BAFTA and DGA are long passed, oscars at the end of this week, and you haven’t updated in 17 days? Where you at Clayton?

  • Natalia

    This ia a strong year for the Oscars and I can’t wait for Sunday. I don’t think that it’s a surprise that Aniston didn’t get nominated. It was a good role but really, all the fuss was about Aniston looking like a normal woman. All I can say to her is welcome to the club.

    Here’s my take on the winners: https://nataliahvjustino.wordpress.com/2015/02/19/2015-oscar-predictions/

  • Clayton: I’ve been reading your site for years. I make my own predictions for fun and when in doubt, I always look to you. I know you’re busy with Oscar week and fatherhood, but I would be honored if you checked my predictions. It’s a tumblr page, no spam, I swear! Or I shall be banned from your site forever.
    http://regardingsara.tumblr.com/post/111627226401/2015-oscar-predictions

    Happy Oscars everyone!

    • Luke McGowan

      I like your logic about Keaton getting love from the non-actors.

      • Thanks for reading! I hope I’m on to something.

  • Luke McGowan

    Those who might be interested, here are all the instances where the SAG and Oscar didn’t line up. Its more than one might think. The Lead Actor category is the least likely to deviate whilst Supporting Actor is most likely. Also worth noting that 2001-2002 was the peak time for SAG and Oscar not to line up, with 6/8 Oscar winners not winning the SAG – only Halle Berry and Catherine Zeta-Jones won both.

    ACTOR
    Sean Penn over Johnny Depp (2003)
    Adrien Brody over Daniel Day-Lewis (2002)
    Denzel Washington over Russell Crowe (2001)

    ACTRESS
    Meryl Streep over Viola Davis (2011)
    Nicole Kidman over Renee Zellweger (2002)
    Hilary Swank over Anette Bening (1999)
    Jessica Lange over Jodie Foster (1994)

    SUP ACTOR
    Christoph Waltz over Tommy Lee Jones (2012)
    Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy (2006)
    George Clooney over Paul Giamatti (2005)
    Chris Cooper over Christopher Walken (2002)
    Jim Broadbent over Ian McKellen (2001)
    James Coburn over Robert Duvall (1998)
    Kevin Spacey over Ed Harris (1995)

    SUP ACTRESS
    Tilda Swinton over Ruby Dee (2007)
    Jennifer Connelly over Helen Mirren (2001)
    Marcia Gay Harden over Judi Dench (2000)
    Judi Dench over Kathy Bates (1998)
    Juliette Binoche over Lauren Bacall (1996)
    Mira Sorvino over Kate Winslet (1995)

    • Marion Cotillard over Julie Christie (2007)

  • Baggins

    well, the oscars happened, and i have to say i couldn’t be happier with the results. Boyhood didn’t win! Yay! take that you overated pile!

    • Luke McGowan

      STFU you uncultured brat.

  • Luke McGowan

    Clayton got 17/24, same as me!

  • supporting actress isn’t listed btw.

  • Please God, don’t let Tom Hooper get a 3rd straight director nomination…