2016 Oscar Predictions – Best Actress

2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

(UPDATED: JANUARY 26, 2016)

This has moved very well for Brie Larson standing on stage but there is considerable support for both Saoirse Ronan and Charlotte Rampling that could bubble up.  Don’t be so secure.

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AND THE NOMINEES ARE

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1. Brie Larson

"Room"
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Larson has been the frontrunner for some time. Its Larson's to lose.
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2. Saoirse Ronan

"Brooklyn"
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Has been the runner up to Larson for quite some time. She could make a late surge to jump in front.
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3. Charlotte Rampling

"45 Years"
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Respected veteran actress with a terrific performance under her belt. Recent comments could hinder her.
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4. Cate Blanchett

"Carol"
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Harvey is pushing for it but she has two, and a recent two at that.
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5. Jennifer Lawrence

"Joy"
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She overcame the reviews. She's basking in breaking an age record (with likely more to come).

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THE NEXT FIVE MISSES

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6. Helen Mirren

"Woman in Gold"
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Surprise SAG nominee and has heat for "Trumbo" on her side as well. Is she a possible double nod threat?
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7. Rooney Mara*

"Carol"
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The campaign is for her to be considered for supporting but there are vocal pundits, critics, etc. that are firmly against that categorization. Golden Globes saw her to be a lead player while SAG went with the studios wishes. Could she join Blanchett as the first dual nominee since "Thelma & Louise."
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8. Sarah Silverman

"I Smile Back"
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Is this just a case of Robin Wright for "She's So Lovely" or does this show actual support for her performance, which is liked by many? It's a very small film but she can go the way of Jennifer Aniston last year and just miss out in the end.
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9. Alicia Vikander*

"The Danish Girl"
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She could be getting votes in this category, especially with "Ex Machina" coming on strong for her.
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10. Charlize Theron

"Mad Max: Fury Road"
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Scored the BFCA nod and if "Mad Max: Fury Road" is REALLY going to contend for the top prize, I'm sure she's much closer than we think.

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TOP-TIER MISSES

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11. Blythe Danner

"I'll See You In My Dreams"
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First screener of the year and Gwyneth Paltrow's Mom to boot. She may pull a Bruce Dern this year. The campaign is getting ready to explode for her.
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12. Carey Mulligan

"Suffragette"
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She's one of the hottest stars on the planet. She'll be a huge financial success with the last "Hunger Games" and teamed back up with David O. Russell is what they love best. Is it Russell/Lawrence overkill though?
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13. Emily Blunt

"Sicario"
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She's terrific in the film a la Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty" but unlike Chastain, she doesn't the definitive "scene" that makes me comfortable listing her much higher. AMPAS would really need to love the film.
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14. Maggie Smith

"The Lady in the Van"
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Dame Maggie Smith is always in contention if she's taking on a role. This TIFF film was well received and their giving it a proper push. Could be a makeup nod for her snub for "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel." GG nominee.
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15. Lily Tomlin

"Grandma"
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GG nominee. Absolutely magnificent in Paul Weitz's film. Also having a bit of a resurgence with Netflix's "Grace and Frankie" streaming. Are they in a veteran mood?
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16. Juliette Binoche

"Clouds of Sils Maria"
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It AMPAS is watching the film for Kristen Stewart, then Juliette Binoche could be catching their attention.
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17. Amy Schumer

"Trainwreck"
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Could be easily winning the Golden Globe over Jennifer Lawrence which has a high translation into an Oscar nomination. As the "it" girl of the year, she could be getting lots of votes.
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18. Melissa McCarthy

"Spy"
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Golden Globe nominee and a previous Oscar nominee. Her performance is not just about the laughs for some. There are a select few that are calling for this one. I wouldn't bet on it...
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19. Bel Powley

"The Diary of a Teenage Girl"
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Won a few breakthrough prizes but missed the Globe nod. She probably gets a couple of votes down the line.
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20. Kitana Kiki Rodriguez

"Tangerine"
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Academy loves to make history every now and again, and the story behind Kitana Rodriguez is catching some momentum. Is the film just too small for them to get around to, especially the actors branch? Gotham Nomination kicked things off for her.
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ALSO MISSED

21 Cate Blanchett – “Truth

22 Jennifer Jason Leigh – “Anomalisa

23 Meryl Streep – “Ricki and the Flash”

24 Sandra Bullock – “Our Brand is Crisis”

25 Carey Mulligan – “Far from the Madding Crowd”

26 Olivia Wilde – “Meadowland

27 Daisy Ridley – “Star Wars: The Force Awakens

28 Alicia Vikander – “Testament of Youth”

29 Patricia Clarkson – “Learning to Drive”

30 Greta Gerwig – “Mistress America

OTHER MISSES

31 Julianne Moore – “Freeheld

32 Angelina Jolie Pitt – “By the Sea

33 Emma Stone – “Irrational Man

34 Naomi Watts – While We’re Young

35 Emily Browning – “Legend”

36 Jennifer Lawrence – “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2”

37 Margot Robbie – “Z for Zachariah

38 Amy Poehler – “Inside Out

39 Jessica Biel – “Bleeding Heart

40 Lily James – “Cinderella

*=could go supporting
**=could get pushed to 2016

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