2016 Oscar Predictions – Best Picture

2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE

(UPDATED: JANUARY 26, 2016)

“The Big Short” has the PGA, “The Revenant” and “The Martian” have the Globes.  Next up is SAG which could go to “Spotlight” and DGA which could go to George Miller, creating a wide open race again.

CLICK ON THE PICTURES FOR COMMENTARY

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AND THE NOMINEES ARE

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1. "Spotlight"

Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust
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COMMENTARY:
The train for "Spotlight" may be slowing down substantially, with "The Big Short" picking up massive steam at the moment. In the end, it may be a closer call than some think. How can a small studio like Open Road fair against Paramount Picture and 20th Century Fox?
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2. "The Big Short"

Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
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COMMENTARY:
Won the PGA but lost the Golden Globe (which actually helps the narrative for winning Picture at the Oscars). Will the Academy go two years in a row with dramedies?
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3. "The Revenant"

Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon
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COMMENTARY:
Winner of the Golden Globe in Best Picture (Drama) and led the nomination tally with 12. With an assured Best Actor trophy in hand, it could become a "Revenant" night for all.
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4. "Mad Max: Fury Road"

Doug Mitchell and George Miller
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COMMENTARY:
The film looks like a possible runaway in the tech categories, mirroring the same win total as "Gravity" with even Miller being touted as a possible spoiler in Director. That means Picture is certainly in the cards, right?
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COMMENTARY:
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5. "The Martian"

Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, and Mark Huffam
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COMMENTARY:
The Ridley Scott snub in Director has some feeling that an "Argo" type swell may be brewing. Doubtful but possible.

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OUTSIDE THE FIVE

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6. "Room"

Ed Guiney
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Surprised with a nomination in Director, which indicates some strong support but how is Brie Larson as far as it can go?
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7. "Bridge of Spies"

Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger
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Spielberg has his fans but the film may not be able to go toe-to-toe with other, well-received films. It needed to make a stronger showing with Director and Editing nods.
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8. "Brooklyn"

Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey
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It overcame some big odds to make it in the lineup but its best bet seems to be Actress and Screenplay, which are both hard to do on its own.
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SAG ensemble nominee. Best thing it could have received. For weeks its been playing well with Academy and industry voters and may become the pony for Universal Pictures. It deserves it. Globe shut out hurt but no one expected it there anyway.
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Nabbed itself a Critics Choice Award for Best Picture and the film continues to be well respected and has popped up on a few critics groups Best Picture lists. Guilds have come out for it.

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TOP-TIER MISSES

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9. "Carol"

The Weinstein Company
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COMMENTARY:
With 6 nods, it just didn't have enough to get it over the hump.
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10. "Straight Outta Compton"

Universal Pictures
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COMMENTARY:
Screenplay was all it had in him.
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11. "Sicario"

Lionsgate
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COMMENTARY:
3 nods was a good day for the film considering what it had to overcome. This was a close call.
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12. "Ex Machina"

A24
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COMMENTARY:
A film as small as "Ex Machina" landing at PGA is significant. Speaking with an Oscar voter recently, the buzz for the film is up there and could be a surprise favorite in the group. Watch out.
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13. "Inside Out"

Pixar
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COMMENTARY:
Animated features like "Toy Story 3" and "Up" found their way into the Best Picture category but those were in years of the "straight ten." On a sliding scale, it's difficult to know if AMPAS will feel inclined to put this near the top of their ballots. Pixar is a strong machine and they'll be pushing for it but who knows how it will fair by the year's end. The hunt is on.
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14. "Trumbo"

Bleecker Street
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COMMENTARY:
The film popped up with a SAG Ensemble nomination, along with Bryan Cranston and Helen Mirren cited. Could this film about Hollywood entice the older voters?
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15. "The Hateful Eight"

The Weinstein Company
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COMMENTARY:
SAG passed on Tarantino's western but they have opted for no screeners this year. Golden Globes jumped mildly on board with screenplay, acting, and score. Reviews are embargoed until 12/21 so its hard to know what critics are thinking at the moment.
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16. "Beasts of No Nation"

Netflix
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COMMENTARY:
The film has come back to life with a SAG ensemble nomination and two mentions for Idris Elba. Netflix has been performing a stellar campaign. Can this Netflix entry change the landscape?
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17. "Steve Jobs"

Universal Pictures
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COMMENTARY:
Box office hurt considerably and SAG looked elsewhere for an ensemble but Fassbender and Winslet have been able to stay above it. Aaron Sorkin has never missed a Globe nomination so its hard to chalk that up to love. This will all depend on guild support.
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18. "The Danish Girl"

Focus Features
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COMMENTARY:
Starting off strong at Toronto, Hooper's film proved to be another divisive take for the Oscar-winning director. Focus Features backing will keep it naturally in the conversation. Good thing going for it is that the tech branches may fall over themselves in categories like Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup, etc.. It may have overall guild support to last. It needs a revival soon though.
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19. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"

Walt Disney
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COMMENTARY:
The film is well liked, and it lived up to most expectations. Is the Academy ready to welcome back this universe? That remains the big question.
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20. "Son of Saul"

Sony Pictures Classics
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COMMENTARY:
Foreign films are always tough sells. Its certainly well regarded but does it cross over to all branches? That remains to be seen.

ALSO MISSED

21 Joy (20th Century Fox)

22 “Concussion” (Sony Pictures)

23 “Love & Mercy” (Roadside Attractions)

24 “Creed” (Warner Bros.)

25 “Youth” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

26 “Black Mass(Warner Bros.)

27 “45 Years” (Sundance Selects)

28 “99 Homes” (Broad Green Pictures)

29 “Anomalisa” (Paramount Pictures)

30 “Suffragette” (Focus Features)

OTHER MISSES

31 MacBeth(The Weinstein Company)

32 “I’ll See You In My Dreams” (Bleecker Street)

33 “Me  & Earl & the Dying Girl” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

34 “In the Heart of the Sea” (Warner Bros.)

35 “Grandma” (Sony Pictures Classics)

36 The Walk(Sony Pictures)

37 “Woman in Gold” (The Weinstein Company)

38 “Mr. Holmes” (Roadside Attractions)

39 “Infinitely Polar Bear” (Sony Pictures Classics)

40 “The Diary of a Teenage Girl” (Sony Pictures Classics)

 

**=could be pushed 2016

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