2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
(UPDATED: MARCH 9, 2015)
Supporting categories are never easy to predict this far out. You have to try to foresee a standout from a Best Picture contender, a case of category fraud, or just have a really good feeling about someone in particular. Looking at the contenders for this year, there are more than enough to choose from on the male side.
Ken Watanabe‘s role in Gus Van Sant’s upcoming “Sea of Trees” opposite Matthew McConaughey looks like a role that will undoubtedly be a co-lead but since McConaughey is the bigger name, Watanabe will compete in the Supporting category. If Watanabe were to be nominated, he’d be the second most nominated Asian actor in Oscar history. Only Ben Kingsley has been nominated multiple times (Kingsley is of South Asian descent, father is Indian from Kenya). I’m sure there are many placing bets on Tom Hardy‘s performance in “The Revenant” opposite Leonardo DiCaprio. Hardy has been up and coming with the critics and members for years with outstanding works under his belt (“Bronson”).
Ralph Fiennes missed out big this past year for “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” where he stood out as the single best aspect of the film. He’ll likely have some goodwill leftover bringing some attention to “A Bigger Splash.” Kevin Kline finds himself back in the hunt after missing out for “Life as a House” a few years back. This time, he’s back with his “Sophie’s Choice” co-star Meryl Streep in Jonathan Demme’s “Ricki and the Flash.”
Alan Alda beat some pretty big odds to sneak in for “The Aviator” in 2004. With a role in Steven Spielberg’s “Bridge of Spies,” he’s one of many veterans that will be seeking the attention of the Academy. Kevin Bacon still remains Oscar-nomination-less for his stellar career. Perhaps a decently received turn in Scott Cooper’s “Black Mass” can bring him to the Dolby stage? Kurt Russell is one of many men in Quentin Tarantino’s “The Hateful Eight” that will be looking for some Academy love. Russell’s closest bout with the Academy was for 1983’s “Silkwood.” In a role that sounds like it can be potential LEAD, Harvey Weinstein may be able to work some magic on a large ensemble. Same goes for Bruce Dern, Michael Madsen, Samuel L. Jackson, Tim Roth, and Demian Bichir. Make a pick with any of them.
Dominic West was a standout in last year’s Golden Globe-nominated “Pride” and will be playing Ernest Hemingway in “Genius.” But will people be reminded of Corey Stoll’s ignored work too much? He will also have competition from co-stars Jude Law and Guy Pearce. Forest Whitaker will be trainer with a heart of gold in Antoine Fuqua’s “Southpaw” with Jake Gyllenhaal. Chris Cooper will be in Jean Marc Vallee’s “Demolition” while Steve Carell looks to capitalize on his first Oscar nomination with a role opposite Julianne Moore and Ellen Page in “Freeheld.”
Kyle Chandler has been a stapled supporting player in several films like “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “The Spectacular Now.” He’s quickly becoming one of those dependable actors that is starting to build the overdue narrative. Is “Carol” the possibility? There’s also Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight,” whose looking to build off his nomination for “Foxcatcher” and Cillian Murphy is said to have a substantial part in “In the Heart of the Sea.” There’s plenty more to discuss. We have to let this one play out.
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE
1. Alan AldaBridge of Spies
2. Ken WatanabeSea of Trees
3. Kevin BaconBlack Mass
4. Kurt RussellThe Hateful Eight
THE NEXT FIVE
6. Tom HardyThe Revenant
8. Kevin KlineRicki and the Flash
9. Forest WhitakerSouthpaw
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11. Michael MadsenThe Hateful Eight
12. Samuel L. JacksonThe Hateful Eight
13. Mark RuffaloSpotlight
14. Chris CooperDemolition
15. Emory CohenBrooklyn
16. Cillian MurphyIn the Heart of the Sea
17. Jude LawGenius
18. Guy PearceGenius
19. Steve CarellFreeheld
20. Kyle ChandlerCarol
*=could go LEAD
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