2016 Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actor

2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

(UPDATED: JANUARY 26, 2016

Sylvester Stallone has showed the strength of a winner but with no SAG or BAFTA nomination, it’ll be a long road from here to when final ballots are in and he isn’t anywhere giving a speech.  Will it hurt him and help Mark Rylance or Mark Ruffalo?  Perhaps even Christian Bale going for a second supporting statue?  He would be the least likely two-time Oscar-winner for Supporting Actor since Christoph Waltz.

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AND THE NOMINEES ARE

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1. Christian Bale

"The Big Short"
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COMMENTARY:
Christian Bale has some good will on his side and may ride in with a "Big Short" evening. He could even win SAG too.
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2. Sylvester Stallone

"Creed"
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COMMENTARY:
Golden Globe and BFCA wins under his belt but has no SAG or BAFTA nods. Will he be able to sustain?
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3. Mark Rylance

"Bridge of Spies"
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COMMENTARY:
Respected and won tons of critics stuff but nothing substantial yet.
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4. Mark Ruffalo

"Spotlight"
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COMMENTARY:
Overcame odds for his nomination but doesn't have SAG to help his run to a win. Needed to be a sure thing early on.
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5. Tom Hardy

"The Revenant"
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Leo votes may go to him too but not enough to matter.

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THE NEXT FIVE MISSES

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6. Benicio Del Toro

"Sicario"
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COMMENTARY:
The film did well but all he could muster this season was the BAFTA nod.
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7. Idris Elba

"Beasts of No Nation"
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COMMENTARY:
Brought back from the dead, Idris Elba's campaign has been revived by nominations from both the Golden Globes and SAG awards. He's one of only two actors that have scored both. Will Critics Choice agree?
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8. Michael Shannon

"99 Homes"
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Bleecker Street has had Michael Shannon on the circuit and then some and its paying off. He showed up with SAG and Golden Globe nominations and is probably a favorite for a Critics Choice. He also won LAFCA. Could he be a dark horse for the prize?
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9. Jacob Tremblay

"Room"
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COMMENTARY:
Jacob Tremblay's work in "Room" is astounding and I think we may be overlooking his strength in showing up because he's a child. It occurred to me recently, that we may be convincing ourselves that this isn't a sure thing. If "Room" is making a play for Best Picture, I think this is locked in for it. IF it is...SAG nominee.
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10. Paul Dano

"Love & Mercy"
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With some Best Actor prizes surprisingly coming his way, the Golden Globes also cited his work. Will he be able to sustain for the rest of the season?

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TOP-TIER MISSES

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11. Michael Keaton

"Spotlight"
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The loss for "Birdman" still stings and though he may not be the "best-in-show" based on reviews, he's still really strong, and someone they may reward easily. Especially if the film is winning BP. He's handed NOWHERE though except for LEAD at NYFCC.
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12. Jason Mitchell

"Straight Outta Compton"
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This may be wishful thinking but all the praise for the film mentions him as one the key standouts. It's a star making performance. The campaign is moving towards a big push for him. SAG Ensemble nod may help a bit.
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13. Stanley Tucci

"Spotlight"
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The campaign is real for Stanley Tucci and his performance is surely worthy. Previous nominee but will they really go for 3 "Spotlight" guys?
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14. Harvey Keitel

"Youth"
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A veteran in supporting actor looks to good on paper. A previous nominee that could get lots of career votes. No SAG + GG hurts.
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15. Emory Cohen

"Brooklyn"
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Sundance reviews were kind to his performance but it could be all about Ronan and the film. They would need to REALLY love it.
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16. Walton Goggins

"The Hateful Eight"
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He's a huge standout in a big cast, likely the strongest of the men. With great work delivered for years, Tarantino is a good vehicle to get him noticed but no one has seemed to yet.
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17. Oscar Isaac

"Ex Machina"
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He's due for his first nomination and has some critics prizes to back him up. Is he that surprise morning nominee we're looking for?
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18. Joel Edgerton

"Black Mass"
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Had a great year not only starring in "Black Mass" but directing 'The Gift.'
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19. Liev Schreiber

"Spotlight"
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Liev Schreiber's name has been coming up a lot lately and his work in "Spotlight" is fantastic, though understated. We know for a fact that four guys from "Spotlight" received votes at the Globes. Can someone sneak on through?
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20. Jason Segel

"The End of the Tour"
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The reviews were surely there when the film was released. Many saying he's one of the best things of the year. What category will he go in?
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ALSO MISSED

21 Harrison Ford – “Star Wars: The Force Awakens

22 Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina

23 Kyle Chandler – “Carol

24 Robert DeNiro – “Joy

25 Jeff Daniels – “Steve Jobs

26 Seth Rogen – “Steve Jobs

27 O’Shea Jackson, Jr. – “Straight Outta Compton

28 Corey Hawkins – “Straight Outta Compton

29 Paul Giamatti – “Straight Outta Compton

30 Domhnall Gleeson – “Brooklyn

OTHER MISSES

31 Tom Noonan – “Anomalisa

32 Robert Redford – “Truth

33 Josh Brolin – “Sicario

34 Michael Sheen – “Far from the Madding Crowd”

35 RJ Cyler – “Me & Earl & the Dying Girl

36 Peter Sarsgaard – “Pawn Sacrifice

37 Bruce Dern – “The Hateful Eight

38 Matthias Schoenaerts – “The Danish Girl

39 Forest Whitaker – Southpaw

40 Adam Driver – “Star Wars: The Force Awakens

*=could go LEAD
**=could be pushed back to 2016

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