2015 Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actress

2015 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(UPDATED: NOVEMBER 24, 2014)

At this writing, Supporting Actress has emerged as a tight-knit race.  Patricia Arquette is the only one that seems assured.  Jessica Chastain‘s work in “A Most Violent Year” is something of a winning turn, Emma Stone is a prayer from the Oscar gods, Keira Knightley will ride in with her film, Carmen Ejogo is astounding in her work, and Meryl Streep delivers her best since “The Devil Wears Prada.”  And then there’s possibly Carrie Coon, Laura Dern, Kristen Stewart, and perhaps a second entry from “Woods” from Anna Kendrick

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AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

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1. Patricia Arquette

Boyhood
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: She takes on much of the emotion of the film on herself. She could be a great representation for the film.

AGAINST HER: The film is smaller and rather ambitious and the Academy has been known to ignore those types of films unfortunately. The campaign will be key.

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2. Jessica Chastain

A Most Violent Year
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: She is lined up to have another outstanding here with "Eleanor Rigby," "Interstellar," and this. The people behind her are gunning for a nomination and perhaps an overdue win.

AGAINST HER: She could vote split with herself or get edged out by other ladies. She also could be in the supporting race for "Interstellar."

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3. Meryl Streep

Into the Woods
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: It's a meaty role and there's no denying that Oscar will write Meryl's name down for anything. Disney is preparing a very big campaign. It's her best in years (IMO).

AGAINST HER: They do take Meryl breaks from time to time.

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4. Keira Knightley

The Imitation Game
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: Is in quite a bit of films this year. This Weinstein film could be her ticket to nomination #2. She has the role and the feisty persona that Oscar loves.

AGAINST HER: Too many films can be overkill or cause a vote split.

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5. Emma Stone

Birdman
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: The film looks like an interesting mix of drama and weirdness. With the Cameron Crowe film out of the picture, is this her chance?

AGAINST HER: Naomi Watts, if she's a standout.

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COMMENTARY:
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THE NEXT FIVE CONTENDERS

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6. Carmen Ejogo

Selma
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: Playing Coretta Scott King is a massive opportunity for attention. The supportive wife is an Academy favorite.

AGAINST HER: She's incredible but she'll have to battle bigger names in the race (like Meryl Streep).

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7. Laura Dern

Wild
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: Previous nominee in a role that received good notices out of the festival circuit. Can she make a case for herself?

AGAINST HER: Her screen time is a bit on the low side according to some. Bigger films and names may get ahead.

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8. Carrie Coon

Gone Girl
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: She is a standout in a film that is popular with audiences. Could get swept in. Also has "The Leftovers" which helps.

AGAINST HER: Has Kim Dickens that could steal some votes. Isn't as famous as her competitors..

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9. Kristen Stewart

Still Alice
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COMMENTARY:

FOR HER: Has made a year of getting critics and audiences to notice how well she can really act with "Camp X-Ray" and "Clouds of Sils Maria." Can she get pulled in with Moore a la Sally Hawkins?

AGAINST HER: There is a lot of competition ahead of her. Plus, will the Academy take this once tween hearthrob seriously?

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10. Rene Russo

Nightcrawler
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COMMENTARY:
Wildcard choice. Film is well liked. She's never been in the serious hunt before. I'd say she's a possible spoiler.
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OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

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11. Anna Kendrick

Into the Woods
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FOR HER: Previous nominee for "Up in the Air" and continues to consistently deliver in blockbusters like "Pitch Perfect." This could be a winning ticket for her based on the role.

AGAINST HER: Internal competition, namely Meryl Streep and Emily Blunt who could both swing in this category.

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12. Jessica Chastain

Interstellar
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FOR HER: Stellar year. There's a lot of emotion in the performance that could resonate, especially if they love the film.

AGAINST HER: A winning performance in a science fiction film? I'll believe it when I see it. That doesn't stop a nomination from occurring though.

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13. Katherine Waterston

Inherent Vice
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FOR HER: Daughter of veteran actor Sam Waterston, early word is that she's a standout in Paul Thomas Anderson's film. If they love it, Oscar would love to welcome a new face.

AGAINST HER: Weird reviews.

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14. Marion Bailey

Mr. Turner
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She's so sweetly wonderful in "Mr. Turner." She also has a role that some may sympathize with.
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15. Dorothy Atkinson

Mr. Turner
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A tragic role that some may be able to cling to.
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16. Imelda Staunton

Pride
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FOR HER: Previous nominee for "Vera Drake" and has been in need of another role that people notice. She seems to have found it here.

AGAINST HER: Will enough people see the film?

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17. Octavia Spencer

Black or White
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Generated buzz out of TIFF and this is now getting a qualifying run. Could shake things up.
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18. Viola Davis

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
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Is terrific in "Rigby" and if "Get on Up" cannot get her the attention she deserves, this is a fine representation.
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19. Marisa Tomei

Love is Strange
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Marisa Tomei shines once again and is being pushed by Sony Pictures Classics. Could be able to sneak in and do some damage. Indie spirit?
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20. Sienna Miller

American Sniper
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If they liked the film THAT much, then I guess?
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ALSO IN CONTENTION

21 Vanessa Redgrave - Foxcatcher

22 Melissa McCarthy – St. Vincent

23 Naomi Watts – St. Vincent

24 Naomi Watts – Birdman

25 Viola Davis – Get on Up

26 Kim Dickens – Gone Girl

27 Lorelei Linklater – Boyhood

28 Jessica Lange – The Gambler

29 Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer

30 Oprah Winfrey – Selma

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

31 Greta Gerwig – The Humbling

32 Kirsten Dunst – The Two Faces of January

33 Jennifer Garner – Men, Women & Children

34 Kaitlyn Dever – Men, Women & Children

35 Robin Wright – A Most Wanted Man

36 Indira Varma – Exodus: Gods and Kings

37 Kelly Reilly – Calvary

38 Uma Thurman – Nymphomaniac Vol. 1

39 Cameron Diaz – Annie

40 Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: the Battle of the Five Armies

*=could go LEAD
**=could be pushed to 2015

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Clayton Davis

Editor-in-Chief & Owner at The Awards Circuit
Clayton Davis started to write professionally in his sophomore year of college when Johnny Alba, the editor and owner of the old Oscar prediction site, The Oscar Igloo, had an opening for staff writers. Clayton wrote for The Igloo for nearly four years before being appointed editor and revamping and renaming The Oscar Igloo into the now popular mega-site, The Awards Circuit. Since then, Clayton has become a proud member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to awards season show, The Critics Choice Awards. Most recently, Clayton is a now an active member of the International Press Academy, which hosts the popular Satellite Awards as well as the newly integrated Broadcast Television Journalists Association, which hosts the Critics Choice Television Awards. In June 2014 he became the year's first accepted member to New York Film Critics Online. He has been quoted in various outlets (CNN.com, Bloomberg.com, TheWrap.com, AceShowbiz.com, SlashFilm.com, ScottFeinberg.com) and continues to raise the bar for film-talking enthusiasts around the globe.