2016 Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actress

2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(UPDATED: JANUARY 26, 2016)

Kate Winslet has a Golden Globe while Alicia Vikander has the Critics Choice.  Harvey is working his magic for Rooney Mara as well.  Could be close but Vikander seems like the safe bet.

_________________________________________________________
AND THE NOMINEES ARE

arrow

1. Alicia Vikander

"The Danish Girl"
close
COMMENTARY:
Alicia Vikander has had a stellar year, not only delivering in Tom Hooper's film, but astonishing many with her work in "Ex Machina" and "Testament of Youth." Though clearly a lead vehicle, Focus' supporting campaign for Vikander puts her at a great advantage in this category, where she embodies all the things that Oscar loves to reward.
close
COMMENTARY:
Content
arrow

2. Kate Winslet

"Steve Jobs"
close
COMMENTARY:
After Fassbender and the script, she received the next bunch of praise from the film. She gets to do an accent and she's a scene stealer. Welcome back Ms. Kate. Oscar loves you. Golden Globe winner.
arrow

3. Rooney Mara

"Carol"
close
COMMENTARY:
Rooney Mara emerged from Cannes as the one to beat. Since then, the campaign for her has been run in supporting but the outcry is loud that she is lead (which she is). Could she surprise in the Lead race a la the Golden Globes?
arrow

4. Jennifer Jason Leigh

"The Hateful Eight"
close
COMMENTARY:
Jennifer Jason Leigh has been around for decades, delivering one great performance after another. She's a true standout. NBR winner.
arrow

5. Rachel McAdams

"Spotlight"
close
COMMENTARY:
Her work in "Spotlight" is very good, and one of the film's big highlights however, the talk has surrounded other performances. Bigger names are making a play at the moment but depending on how much AMPAS loves "Spotlight," she could get carried in for the ride. SAG noticed.

_________________________________________________________
THE NEXT FIVE MISSES

arrow

6. Jane Fonda

"Youth"
close
COMMENTARY:
Said to have a memorable, terrific scene in Paolo Sorrentino's follow-up to his Oscar winner. William Hurt-esque?
close
COMMENTARY:
Content
arrow

7. Alicia Vikander

"Ex Machina"
close
COMMENTARY:
Won the LAFCA prize in Supporting and popped up with a Golden Globe nomination. Though her run for "The Danish Girl" seems like her ticket, could she split votes with herself or pop in for "Ex Machina" altogether?
arrow

8. Helen Mirren

"Trumbo"
close
COMMENTARY:
Out of nowhere, she's popped up at both SAG and GG. Could this be another repeat when she was on a run for "Hitchcock," and came up short?
arrow

9. Kristen Stewart

"Clouds of Sils Maria"
close
COMMENTARY:
Won NYFCC and a few other critics prizes thus far and could go the way of Marion Cotillard last year and pop up at the Oscars despite misses at Golden Globes and SAG.
arrow

10. Joan Allen

"Room"
close
COMMENTARY:
Allen has surely been better before but she makes her mark in small amount of screen time in this TIFF audience winner. She could get pulled in for the ride.

_________________________________________________________
TOP-TIER MISSES

arrow

11. Marion Cotillard

"MacBeth"
close
info:
With a surprise supporting run, have her chances increased for a third nomination? She finally broke the streak last year with her deserved nod for "Two Days, One Night." Weinstein is working her on the circuit.
arrow

12. Elizabeth Banks

"Love & Mercy"
close
info:
Banks has had a great year not just in front of the camera but behind it as well with her directorial work on "Pitch Perfect 2." She is an easy get for the Academy member that loves "Love & Mercy" and may surprise down the line. No GG and SAG.
arrow

13. Cynthia Nixon

"James White"
close
info:
She's getting stellar notices. She may be able to ride a wave to the top if enough people see her film. Indie Spirit nominee.
arrow

14. Rachel Weisz

"Youth"
close
info:
She's received her fair share of notices, along with co-star Jane Fonda, but will there be room for them both?
arrow

15. Laura Linney

"Mr. Holmes"
close
info:
Because I think she's one nomination away from her own Oscar on her mantle.
arrow

16. Mya Taylor

"Tangerine"
close
info:
Gothams gave her notices and Magnolia Pictures is giving the film a proper push. Don't know how much headway she can make with bigger names ahead of her. Gotham winner.
arrow

17. Sarah Paulson

"Carol"
close
info:
Early word for her was good but it seems Mara got most of the big notices for a possible supporting player. However, this is a category that loves to double dip from the same film.
arrow

18. Julie Walters

"Brooklyn"
close
info:
Her performance is small but it gets the film's biggest laughs. She someone who can get swept in with a "Brooklyn" love fest on nomination morning.
arrow

19. Isabella Rossellini

"Joy"
close
info:
Early word is that she's the supporting standout and without a nomination to her name (big miss for "Blue Velvet"), she may be able to run the same narrative as Jennifer Jason Leigh. Plus, David O. Russell is magic with his actors.
close
info:
Content
arrow

20. Diane Ladd

"Joy"
close
info:
In case they're in a veteran mood...
close
info:
Content

ALSO MISSED

21 Rose Byrne – Spy

22 Laura Dern – “99 Homes

23 Julia Roberts – “Secret in their Eyes”

24 Olivia Cooke – Me & Earl & the Dying Girl

25 Helena Bonham Carter – “Suffragette

26 Julianne Nicholson – “Black Mass

27 Lola Kirke – “Mistress America

28 Diane Lane – “Trumbo

29 Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Concussion

30 Cate Blanchett – “Cinderella

OTHER MISSES

31 Carrie Fisher – “Star Wars: The Force Awakens

32 Melissa Leo – “The Big Short

33 Marisa Tomei – “The Big Short

34 Jessica Chastain – “The Martian

35 Meryl Streep – “Suffragette

36 Keira Knightley – “Everest

37 Ellen Page – “Freeheld

38 Amber Heard – “The Danish Girl

39 Marin Ireland – “Glass Chin”

40 Robin Bartlett – “H.”

*=could go LEAD
**=could be pushed to 2016

GO AND CHECK OUT OTHER CATEGORIES:

PICTURE | DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT