2016 Oscar Predictions – Best Supporting Actress

2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(UPDATED: JUNE 23, 2015)

Another category that looks to have no real frontrunner unless you all think that Rooney Mara‘s Best Actress win at the Cannes Film Festival will make for a strong play in Supporting Actress.  There’s still a possibility that she’s campaigned Lead (where she’s rumored to belong).  There are a few ladies who are also riding the co-lead card/will get pushed to supporting.  Ellen Page is one-half of a couple in “Freeheld” while Naomi Watts is the female lead in “Demolition.”  “A Bigger Splash” sounds like something that could go the way of Roman Polanski’s “Carnage” or Mike Nichols’ “Closer,” which could mean something or nothing for female stars Tilda Swinton and Dakota Johnson.  Just months after Patricia Arquette won for “Boyhood,” I wonder if they’re still in a veteran/former 90’s actress kind of mood for Jennifer Jason Leigh?  Tarantino has had only one actress nominated (Uma Thurman in “Pulp Fiction”), which gives some pause.  But you never know.  

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AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

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1. Jennifer Jason Leigh

"The Hateful Eight"
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COMMENTARY:
Everyone sat and waited patiently to see if "Margot at the Wedding" was going to provide an opportunity to recognize this talented actress after missing out for "Georgia" (and many others). A role in Quentin Tarantino's film could be good enough for her to make a play.
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2. Rooney Mara

"Carol"
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COMMENTARY:
This former Oscar-nominee has been solid in nearly everything she's touched following. The Cannes reviews were very positive, resulting in the Best Actress win. Many consider the role a co-lead, which can do wonders for her in supporting. Will they buy it?
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3. Elizabeth Olsen

"I Saw the Light"
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They missed the boat on "Martha Marcy May Marlene" and she has a blockbuster under her belt this year with "Avengers: Age of Ultron." The supportive wife of Hank Williams can do wonders for her.
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4. Rachel McAdams

"Spotlight"
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In a film that tells the story of revealing of sex abuse in the Catholic church, someone is bound to stand out. McAdams has been terrific the past few years and is on the verge on breaking through with Oscar.
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5. Naomi Watts

"Demolition"
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A relationship/family drama and those usually do very well in acting categories. Can Watts land herself her third nomination? Depends on the reception of course. Rumor has it that it could open TIFF 2015.

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THE NEXT FIVE

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6. Joan Allen

"Room"
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COMMENTARY:
Is it possible to get Julianne Moore and Joan Allen Oscars in back to back years? How big will her role be?
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7. Melanie Laurent

"By the Sea"
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COMMENTARY:
The overlooked gem (or better yet, miscategorized) of "Inglourious Basterds" is back with a plum role in Angelina Jolie's next directorial effort. Call it a hunch that she stands out.
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8. Ellen Page

"Freeheld"*
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One half of a love couple. Could be one-two choice for the Academy. She also could go lead.
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9. Helena Bonham Carter

"Suffragette"
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There's internal competition but rumor has it she has the standout role and performance. She nearly won for "The King's Speech." Maybe they're looking to bestow one upon her soon.
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10. Julie Walters

"Brooklyn"
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Nearly won for "Billy Elliot" and there was love for her out of Sundance.

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OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

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11. Sarah Paulson

"Carol"
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Early word for her was good but it seems Mara got most of the big notices for a possible supporting player. However, this is a category that loves to double dip from the same film.
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12. Kristen Stewart

"Clouds of Sils Maria"
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Cesar's Best Supporting Actress winner. She is still a standout from the first half of the year. She could muscle her way in with a calculated campaign.
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13. Kate Winslet

"Steve Jobs"
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Oscar-winner taking a possible hot role that will welcome her back into the Oscar lineup.
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14. Laura Linney

"Genius"
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Because I think she's one nomination away from her own Oscar on her mantle.
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15. Nicole Kidman

"Genius"
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She's Nicole and they love her. Depends on how big her role is.
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16. Jessica Chastain

"The Martian"
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With Chastain missing out for "A Most Violent Year," will they feel inclined to make it up to her for one of her many roles this year? Can Ridley Scott deliver magic for her? Time will tell.
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17. Julia Roberts

"Money Monster"
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Oscar royalty in a Jodie Foster directed film with George Clooney and Jack O'Connell.
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17. Melissa Leo

"Snowden"
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Cause her "CONSIDER" campaign will be everywhere no matter what the reviews.
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19. Shailene Woodley

"Snowden"
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Playing Snowden's girlfriend. A role that can be very sympathetic.
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20. Judi Dench

"Tulip Fever"
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Harvey backing and they love Dench.
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ALSO IN CONTENTION

21 Jane Fonda – “Youth”

22 Ann Dowd – “Our Brand is Crisis”

23 Sienna Miller – “Adam Jones”

24 Diane Ladd – “Joy”

25 Amy Ryan – “Bridge of Spies”

26 Vanessa Bayer – “Trainwreck”

27 Dakota Johnson – “A Bigger Splash”

28 Winona Ryder – “Experimenter”

29 Renee Zellweger – “The Whole Truth”**

30 Adele Exarchopolus – “The Last Face”

OTHER CONTENDERS

31 Rose Byrne – “Spy”

32 Meryl Streep – “Suffragette”

33 Romola Garai – “Suffragette”

34 Helen Mirren – “Trumbo”

35 Judy Davis – “The Dressmaker”**

36 Berenice Bejo – “The Childhood of a Leader”

37 Kirsten Dunst – “Midnight Special”

38 Katherine Waterston – “Steve Jobs”

39 Toni Collette – “Miss You Already”

40 Keira Knightley – “Everest”

*=could go LEAD
**=could be pushed to 2015

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