SAG threw a curveball with Naomi Watts’ inclusion for “St. Vincent” and I’m not sure why or what it means. Is it another chalk up for “Birdman” or do they genuinely love the performance? It’d be interesting if she edged out Jessica Chastain, who missed out on SAG in her place but the Globes’ Supporting Actress lineup looks like the right one. If there is wiggle room, Laura Dern (“Wild”) or even Rene Russo (“Nightcrawler”) could factor in. There’s still the possibility for Carmen Ejogo from “Selma.”
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE
1. Patricia Arquette
It's one of the sure fire things to be nominated for Oscar. She's won a whole lot of awards including a Lead Actress prize from LAFCA. She's on her way.
2. Meryl Streep
Into the Woods
It's one of her freshest and interesting performances in sometime. Disney is backing and they believe they can win with her.
3. Emma Stone
She has a critics award under her belt and she's arguably the best performance in the film. They do love their younger actresses.
4. Keira Knightley
The Imitation Game
She had the Hollywood Film Award to kick her off but she hasn't won anything else since. She's got Globe and SAG and that keeps her alive.
5. Jessica Chastain
A Most Violent Year
Her role is showy, fun, and vivacious. The SAG snub stings and I can't come up with a good enough genuine explanation for it except that the voting members didn't respond (which isn't a good thing). The Globe nod helps. I wonder if she wins the Globe?
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6. Laura Dern
I was shocked to see how many votes she received at NYFCO. She was also in the conversation at other awards groups too. She's a spoiler but no Globe and SAG are hard to overcome + her film isn't picking up Best Picture heat.
7. Rene Russo
Wildcard choice. Film is well liked. She's never been in the serious hunt before. I'd say she's a possible spoiler.
8. Carmen Ejogo
They're giving her the attention she needs but the lack of exposure at Globe and SAG is what she needed, even if it was in Ensemble.
9. Naomi Watts
It was a shock to hear her name at SAG but here we are. Does it mean anything though? We'll see.
10. Adriana Barraza
Previous nominee who is just as effective as her co-star Aniston. Is she a possibility for the film as well.
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11. Carrie Coon
She's a standout of the film with a well-received television run on "The Leftovers." She missed everything she really needed for Oscar love.
12. Kristen Stewart
She's proved her worth in the independent spirit community with "Camp X-Ray," "Clouds of Sils Maria," and this. She just couldn't muscle up to the Globes and SAG.
13. Katherine Waterston
She has a very powerful and provocative scene in "Inherent Vice" but she's been overlooked all season.
14. Anna Kendrick
Into the Woods
Meryl Streep is stealing all her thunder. She'll need to wait for her next film.
15. Tilda Swinton
Satellite nominee who stands out in a dark, demented film. You just never know.
16. Jessica Chastain
Her screen time isn't as thick and she has "A Most Violent Year."
17. Dorothy Atkinson
A tragic role that some may be able to cling to.
18. Marion Bailey
She's so sweetly wonderful in "Mr. Turner." She also has a role that some may sympathize with.
19. Vanessa Redgrave
Veteran actress who delivers in a strong role with little screen time.
20. Viola Davis
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Is terrific in "Rigby" and if "Get on Up" cannot get her the attention she deserves, this is a fine representation.
Clayton Davis started to write professionally in his sophomore year of college when Johnny Alba, the editor and owner of the old Oscar prediction site, The Oscar Igloo, had an opening for staff writers. Clayton wrote for The Igloo for nearly four years before being appointed editor and revamping and renaming The Oscar Igloo into the now popular mega-site, The Awards Circuit. Since then, Clayton has become a proud member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to awards season show, The Critics Choice Awards. Most recently, Clayton is a now an active member of the International Press Academy, which hosts the popular Satellite Awards as well as the newly integrated Broadcast Television Journalists Association, which hosts the Critics Choice Television Awards. In June 2014 he became the year's first accepted member to New York Film Critics Online. He has been quoted in various outlets (CNN.com, Bloomberg.com, TheWrap.com, AceShowbiz.com, SlashFilm.com, ScottFeinberg.com) and continues to raise the bar for film-talking enthusiasts around the globe.