2018 Oscar Predictions – Best Picture

(UPDATED – MARCH 23, 2017)

It’s super early so we’re not going to pretend that we know what will or will not be good.  Lots of iconic directors heading to our theaters including Paul Thomas Anderson, Steven Spielberg, Todd Haynes, and George Clooney.  We’re also looking out for newbies, diversity, and anything that can mirror that outstanding surprise we saw this year with “Moonlight” winning Best Picture.

    AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

  1. "Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project" (Focus Features)
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, JoAnne Sellar

  2. "Suburbicon" (Paramount Pictures)
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Joel Silver, Teddy Schwarzman

  3. "Darkest Hour" (Focus Features)
    Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski

  4. "The Post" (20th Century Fox)
    Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg

  5. "Mudbound" (Netflix)
    Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth, Tim Zajaros

  6. "Battle of the Sexes" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Danny Boyle, Christian Colson, Robert Graf

  7. "The Current War" (The Weinstein Company)
    Timur Bekmambetov, Basil Iwanyk, Steven Zaillian

  8. "Downsizing" (Paramount Pictures)
    Mark Johnson, Alexander Payne

  9. "Marshall" (Open Road Films)
    Paula Wagner, Reginald Hudlin, Jonathan Sanger, Jun Dong

  10. "The Snowman" (Universal Pictures)
    Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Solvo, Peter Gustafsson

  11. NEXT IN LINE

  12. "Dunkirk" (Warner Bros.)
    Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

  13. "Three Billboards Outside Of Ebbing, Missouri" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin

  14. "The Greatest Showman" (20th Century Fox)
    Hugh Jackman, Laurence Mark

  15. "Mary Magdalene" (Universal Pictures)
    Iain Canning, Emilie Sherman

  16. "Molly's Game" (STX Entertainment)
    Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal

  17. "Blade Runner 2049" (Warner Bros.)
    Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson, Bud Yorkin, Cynthia Yorkin

  18. "Wonderstruck" (Amazon Studios)
    Brian Bell, Pamela Koffler, John Sloss, Christine Vachon, Frank Murray

  19. “Untitled Kathryn Bigelow-Detriot Riots Project" (Annapurna Pictures)
    Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Matthew Budman, Megan Ellison, Colin Wilson

  20. "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Kathleen Kennedy, Ram Bergman

  21. "The Death of Stalin" (IFC Films)
    Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou

  22. OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

  23. "Coco" (Pixar)
    Darla K. Anderson

  24. "Untitled A.A. Milne Project" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Steve Christian, Damian Jones, Simon Vaughan

  25. "The Mountain Between Us" (20th Century Fox)
    Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, David Ready, Jenno Topping

  26. "Lean on Pete" (A24)
    Tristan Goligher

  27. "Mother!" (Paramount Pictures)
    Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel

  28. "Annihilation" (Paramount Pictures)
    Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich

  29. "Thank You for Your Service" (Universal Pictures)
    Jon Kilik

  30. "The Glass Castle" (Lionsgate)
    Erik Feig, Gil Netter, Ken Kao

  31. “The Shape of Water" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

  32. "The Beguiled" (Focus Features)
    Sofia Coppola, Roman Coppola, Youree Henley

  33. ALSO IN CONTENTION

  34. "Murder on the Orient Express" (20th Century Fox)
    Kenneth Branagh, Mark Gordon, Judy Hofflund, Simon Kinberg, Michael Schaefer, Ridley Scott, Aditya Sood

  35. "Victoria and Abdul" (Focus Features)
    Beeban Kidron

  36. "Based on a True Story" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Wassim Béji

  37. "Granite Mountain" (Lionsgate)
    Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Thad Luckinbill. Trent Luckinbill, Michael Menchel, Dawn Ostroff, Molly Smith, Jeremy Steckler

  38. "Wonder Wheel" (Amazon Studios)
    Erika Aronson, Letty Aronson, Edward Walson

  39. "Call Me By Your Name" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears

  40. "You Were Never Really Here" (Amazon Studios)
    Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, James Wilson, Lynne Ramsay

  41. "The Book of Henry" (Focus Features)
    Jenette Kahn, Sidney Kimmel, Adam Richman

  42. "How to Talk to Girls at Parties" (A24)
    Iain Canning, Howard Gertler, John Cameron Mitchell, Emile Sherman

  43. "Song to Song" (Broad Green Pictures)
    Nicolas Gonda, Sarah Green, Ken Kao

UNRANKED CONTENDERS

Alien: Covenant” (20th Century Fox) – David Giler, Walter Hill, Mark Huffam, Michael Schaefer, Ridley Scott; “American Assassin” (Lionsgate) – Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Nick Wechsler;  “Atomic Blonde” (Focus Features) – A.J. Dix, Eric Gitter, Beth Kono, Kelly McCormick, Peter Schwerin, Charlize Theron; “The Dark Tower” (Sony Pictures) – Ron Howard, Stephen King; “Euphoria” (No U.S. Distribution) – Patrik Anderson, Frida Bargo, Charles Collier, Alicia Vikander; “Felt” (Universal Pictures) – Marc Butan, Giannina Facio, Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Peter Landesman, Jay Roach; “First They Killed My Father” (Netflix) – Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh; “Happy End” (No U.S. Distribution) – Margaret Ménégoz; “Hostiles” (No U.S. Distribution) – Scott Cooper, Ken Kao, John Lesher; “Ismael’s Ghosts” (Magnolia Pictures) – Pascal Caucheteux, Vincent Maraval; “Journeyman” (No U.S. Distribution) – Diarmid Scrimshaw; “The Killing Of A Sacred Deer” (A24) – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe; “Lady Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) – Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin; “The Legacy of a Whitetall Deerhunter” (No U.S. Distribution) – Scott Rudin; “Logan” (20th Century Fox) – Hutch Parker, Simon Kinberg, Lauren Shuler Donner;  “Logan Lucky” (Bleecker Street) – Reid Carolin, Gregory Jacobs, Mark Johnson; “The Lovers” (A24) – Azazel Jacobs, Ben LeClair, Chris Stinson; “Mary Shelley” (No U.S. Distribution) – Amy Baer, Ruth Coady, Alan Moloney; “The Mercy” (No U.S. Distribution) – Graham Broadbent, Scott Z. Burns, Peter Czernin; “Mute” (Netflix) – Stuart Fenegan; “Okja” (Netflix) – Dooho Choi, Lewis Taewan Kim; “On Chesil Beach” (No U.S. Distribution) – Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley;  “Our Souls at Night” (Netflix) – Robert Redford, Erin Simms, Finola Dwyer; “Redoubtable” (No U.S. Distribution) – Florence Gastaud, Michel Hazanavicius, Riad Sattouf; “Roma” (No U.S. Distribution) – Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez; “The Seagull” (No U.S. Distribution) – Leslie Urdang, Tom Hulce, Robert Salerno; “Stronger” (Lionsgate) – Jake Gyllenhaal, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Michel Litvak, Scott Silver; “Tully” (No U.S. Distribution) – Diablo Cody, A.J. Dix, Helen Estabrook, Aaron L. Gilbert, Beth Kono, Mason Novick, Jason Reitman, Charlize Theron; “Under the Silver Lake” (A24) – Chris Bender, Michael De Luca, Adele Romanski, Jake Weiner; “Untitled Nash Edgerton Project” (STX Entertainment) – A.J. Dix, Nash Edgerton, Beth Kono, Anthony Tambakis, Charlize Theron, Rebecca Yeldham; “War for the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Fox) – Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver; “War Machine” (Netflix) – Ian Bryce, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt; “Wildlife” (No U.S. Distribution) – Paul Dano, Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker, Oren Moverman, Ann Ruark, Alex Saks; “Wind River” (The Weinstein Company) – Elizabeth A. Bell, Peter Berg, Matthew George, Basil Iwanyk, Wayne Rogers; “Yeh Din Ka Kissa” (No U.S. Distribution) – Noah Baumbach, Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Lila Yacoub

CHECK OUT OTHER CATEGORIES:

MOTION PICTURE |DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE |

  • Test

  • Calvin Damon

    I’m surprised that you mentioned movies like Alien: Covenant, War For the Planet of the Apes, Mute, and The Dark Tower and yet you don’t mention Logan

    • If we’re talking about Logan for technical awards, other than some exceptionally brutal (and pretty cool) fight scenes, the visual effects are probably not going to be competitive against films like Planet of the Apes. Same with sound, cinematography, etc. I think by the end of the year, a lot of people will have mostly forgotten about Logan. At least in a competitive, awards season sense.

      • Jared

        People thought that mad max fury road would be forgotten and look what happened. Imo logan and fury road are two of the best mainstream movies of the last few years. Also, the director of logan already has movies that have been nominated for oscars. He directed Reese Witherspoon and Angelina Jolie to oscar wins. Walk the line and 3:10 to yuma were major contenders the years they came out even though they didn’t get best picture noms. The academy is familiar with his work which usually helps. Also its not just another run of the mill action movie. Its a character and drama driven movie that acts as a closing chapter for two characters who have been portrayed by the same people for almost two decades. The academy likes that sort of thing. My only hesitation is that it came out in march. Even mad max came out in the middle of the year not to mention that usually only one mainstream movie gets nominated if any. Blade runner 2049 probably has the best shot of all the scifi/horror/action/ comedies this year

        • The critical reception for Logan doesn’t come anywhere close to that of Fury Road.

          • Jared

            Yeah but the rotten tomatoes scores are both in the 90’s. While logan is based on a comic book its also a grounded movie that feels more like a western. Keep in mind sci/fiand action movies in general don’t usually get nominated (they usually don’t deserve to either) yet fury road, arrival, martian, her, gravity,inception, district 9, and avatar did because they stood out. Logan also stands out.

            • djjsin

              I gotta agree with your comments on Logan. If not best picture at least something for Best actor. If rocky can get nominated for rocky 7, then surely and actor who’s been nominated before AND has hosted the awards before should be a consideration, especially after having embodied the role for 17 years and going out with such a bang.

              Let’s be real. Hugh Jackman is the greatest super hero actor of all time. Nothing has come close to the dedication he put into the wolverine character over the years. Through thick and thin he’s been the one constant. That deserves something.

  • TomNewYorker

    My Prediction are

    Battle of the Sexes
    Darkest Hour
    The Current War
    Downsizing
    Dunkirk
    The Greatest Showman
    Suburbicon
    untitled Detriot Riots Project
    untitled PTA Fashion Project
    Wonderstruck

  • Charlie lerner

    Most people have Dunkirk, The Big Sick Mudbound and call by by your name as the frontrunners. what happened here? lol

    • Who are “most people”? It’s March.

      • Charlie lerner

        is CMBYN excluded because it is a LGBT film?

        • Lamar

          First of all, these are predictions on what will win the Oscar, not what are the best films. Second, I doubt that Clayton has Call Me By Your Name at 36th because it is an LGBTQ film since a year ago he had Moonlight as a frontrunner…

  • Dylan

    Do you think “Get Out” could be an awards contender? I saw it last night and loved it so much

    • Very, very unlikely.

    • Baggins

      If we work together we can give it an ACCA at least

  • Stein-Erik Rutledal

    On average how many do you get correct in these “year in advance” predictions? I’m just curious. I mean nobody was expecting Moonlight a year ago while I do remember Collateral Beauty being viewed as an awards candidate.

  • oscarstan

    I think we can remove Dunkirk from “Next In Line”. I have a feeling it’s going to wind up being this year’s “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”.

    • So the site owner should remove a film from his predictions because of your feelings?

  • Baggins

    Thinking outside the box: Baby Driver