2018 Oscar Predictions –
BEST PICTURE

(UPDATED – MAY 1, 2017)

It’s super early so we’re not going to pretend that we know what will or will not be good.  Lots of iconic directors heading to our theaters including Paul Thomas Anderson, Steven Spielberg, Todd Haynes, and George Clooney.  We’re also looking out for newbies, diversity, and anything that can mirror that outstanding surprise we saw this year with “Moonlight” winning Best Picture.

    AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

  1. "Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project" (Focus Features)
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, JoAnne Sellar

  2. "Suburbicon" (Paramount Pictures)
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Joel Silver, Teddy Schwarzman

  3. "Darkest Hour" (Focus Features)
    Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski

  4. "Mudbound" (Netflix)
    Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth, Tim Zajaros

  5. "Battle of the Sexes" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Danny Boyle, Christian Colson, Robert Graf

  6. "Downsizing" (Paramount Pictures)
    Mark Johnson, Alexander Payne

  7. "Marshall" (Open Road Films)
    Paula Wagner, Reginald Hudlin, Jonathan Sanger, Jun Dong

  8. “The Shape of Water" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

  9. "The Greatest Showman" (20th Century Fox)
    Hugh Jackman, Laurence Mark

  10. "Blade Runner 2049" (Warner Bros.)
    Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson, Bud Yorkin, Cynthia Yorkin

  11. NEXT IN LINE

  12. "Untitled Steven Spielberg Film" (20th Century Fox)
    Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg

  13. "Dunkirk" (Warner Bros.)
    Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

  14. "The Current War" (The Weinstein Company)
    Timur Bekmambetov, Basil Iwanyk, Steven Zaillian

  15. "Three Billboards Outside Of Ebbing, Missouri" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin

  16. "The Glass Castle" (Lionsgate)
    Erik Feig, Gil Netter, Ken Kao

  17. "Molly's Game" (STX Entertainment)
    Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal

  18. "The Snowman" (Universal Pictures)
    Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Solvo, Peter Gustafsson

  19. "Wonderstruck" (Amazon Studios)
    Brian Bell, Pamela Koffler, John Sloss, Christine Vachon, Frank Murray

  20. “Detroit" (Annapurna Pictures)
    Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Matthew Budman, Megan Ellison, Colin Wilson

  21. "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Kathleen Kennedy, Ram Bergman

  22. OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

  23. "Call Me By Your Name" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears

  24. "Annihilation" (Paramount Pictures)
    Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich

  25. "Coco" (Pixar)
    Darla K. Anderson

  26. "Goodbye Christopher Robin" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
    Steve Christian, Damian Jones, Simon Vaughan

  27. "Mary Magdalene" (Universal Pictures)
    Iain Canning, Emilie Sherman

  28. "The Mountain Between Us" (20th Century Fox)
    Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, David Ready, Jenno Topping

  29. "Mother!" (Paramount Pictures)
    Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel

  30. "Lean on Pete" (A24)
    Tristan Goligher

  31. "Victoria and Abdul" (Focus Features)
    Beeban Kidron

  32. "The Beguiled" (Focus Features)
    Sofia Coppola, Roman Coppola, Youree Henley

  33. ALSO IN CONTENTION

  34. "The Death of Stalin" (IFC Films)
    Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou

  35. "Wonder Wheel" (Amazon Studios)
    Erika Aronson, Letty Aronson, Edward Walson

  36. "Thank You for Your Service" (Universal Pictures)
    Jon Kilik

  37. "Murder on the Orient Express" (20th Century Fox)
    Kenneth Branagh, Mark Gordon, Judy Hofflund, Simon Kinberg, Michael Schaefer, Ridley Scott, Aditya Sood

  38. "Granite Mountain" (Lionsgate)
    Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Thad Luckinbill. Trent Luckinbill, Michael Menchel, Dawn Ostroff, Molly Smith, Jeremy Steckler

  39. "You Were Never Really Here" (Amazon Studios)
    Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, James Wilson, Lynne Ramsay

  40. "The Book of Henry" (Focus Features)
    Jenette Kahn, Sidney Kimmel, Adam Richman

  41. "How to Talk to Girls at Parties" (A24)
    Iain Canning, Howard Gertler, John Cameron Mitchell, Emile Sherman

  42. "Based on a True Story" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Wassim Béji

  43. "American Assassin" (Lionsgate)
    Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Nick Wechsler

UNRANKED CONTENDERS

Alien: Covenant” (20th Century Fox) – David Giler, Walter Hill, Mark Huffam, Michael Schaefer, Ridley Scott;  “Atomic Blonde” (Focus Features) – A.J. Dix, Eric Gitter, Beth Kono, Kelly McCormick, Peter Schwerin, Charlize Theron; “The Dark Tower” (Sony Pictures) – Ron Howard, Stephen King; “Euphoria” (No U.S. Distribution) – Patrik Anderson, Frida Bargo, Charles Collier, Alicia Vikander; “Felt” (Universal Pictures) – Marc Butan, Giannina Facio, Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Peter Landesman, Jay Roach; “First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers” (Netflix) – Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh; “Happy End” (No U.S. Distribution) – Margaret Ménégoz; “Hostiles” (No U.S. Distribution) – Scott Cooper, Ken Kao, John Lesher; “Ismael’s Ghosts” (Magnolia Pictures) – Pascal Caucheteux, Vincent Maraval; “Journeyman” (No U.S. Distribution) – Diarmid Scrimshaw; “The Killing Of A Sacred Deer” (A24) – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe; “Lady Bird” (No U.S. Distribution) – Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin; “The Legacy of a Whitetall Deerhunter” (No U.S. Distribution) – Scott Rudin; “Logan” (20th Century Fox) – Hutch Parker, Simon Kinberg, Lauren Shuler Donner;  “Logan Lucky” (Bleecker Street) – Reid Carolin, Gregory Jacobs, Mark Johnson; “The Lovers” (A24) – Azazel Jacobs, Ben LeClair, Chris Stinson; “Mary Shelley” (No U.S. Distribution) – Amy Baer, Ruth Coady, Alan Moloney; “The Mercy” (No U.S. Distribution) – Graham Broadbent, Scott Z. Burns, Peter Czernin; “The Meyerowitz Stories” (No U.S. Distribution) – Noah Baumbach, Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Lila Yacoub; “Mute” (Netflix) – Stuart Fenegan; “Okja” (Netflix) – Dooho Choi, Lewis Taewan Kim; “On Chesil Beach” (No U.S. Distribution) – Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley;  “Our Souls at Night” (Netflix) – Robert Redford, Erin Simms, Finola Dwyer; “Redoubtable” (No U.S. Distribution) – Florence Gastaud, Michel Hazanavicius, Riad Sattouf; “Roma” (No U.S. Distribution) – Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez; “The Seagull” (No U.S. Distribution) – Leslie Urdang, Tom Hulce, Robert Salerno; “Stronger” (Lionsgate) – Jake Gyllenhaal, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Michel Litvak, Scott Silver; “Tully” (No U.S. Distribution) – Diablo Cody, A.J. Dix, Helen Estabrook, Aaron L. Gilbert, Beth Kono, Mason Novick, Jason Reitman, Charlize Theron; “Under the Silver Lake” (A24) – Chris Bender, Michael De Luca, Adele Romanski, Jake Weiner; “Untitled Nash Edgerton Project” (STX Entertainment) – A.J. Dix, Nash Edgerton, Beth Kono, Anthony Tambakis, Charlize Theron, Rebecca Yeldham; “War for the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Fox) – Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver; “War Machine” (Netflix) – Ian Bryce, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt; “Wildlife” (No U.S. Distribution) – Paul Dano, Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker, Oren Moverman, Ann Ruark, Alex Saks; “Wind River” (The Weinstein Company) – Elizabeth A. Bell, Peter Berg, Matthew George, Basil Iwanyk, Wayne Rogers; 

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE |DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
| ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE |

  • Test

  • Calvin Damon

    I’m surprised that you mentioned movies like Alien: Covenant, War For the Planet of the Apes, Mute, and The Dark Tower and yet you don’t mention Logan

    • If we’re talking about Logan for technical awards, other than some exceptionally brutal (and pretty cool) fight scenes, the visual effects are probably not going to be competitive against films like Planet of the Apes. Same with sound, cinematography, etc. I think by the end of the year, a lot of people will have mostly forgotten about Logan. At least in a competitive, awards season sense.

      • Jared

        People thought that mad max fury road would be forgotten and look what happened. Imo logan and fury road are two of the best mainstream movies of the last few years. Also, the director of logan already has movies that have been nominated for oscars. He directed Reese Witherspoon and Angelina Jolie to oscar wins. Walk the line and 3:10 to yuma were major contenders the years they came out even though they didn’t get best picture noms. The academy is familiar with his work which usually helps. Also its not just another run of the mill action movie. Its a character and drama driven movie that acts as a closing chapter for two characters who have been portrayed by the same people for almost two decades. The academy likes that sort of thing. My only hesitation is that it came out in march. Even mad max came out in the middle of the year not to mention that usually only one mainstream movie gets nominated if any. Blade runner 2049 probably has the best shot of all the scifi/horror/action/ comedies this year

        • The critical reception for Logan doesn’t come anywhere close to that of Fury Road.

          • Jared

            Yeah but the rotten tomatoes scores are both in the 90’s. While logan is based on a comic book its also a grounded movie that feels more like a western. Keep in mind sci/fiand action movies in general don’t usually get nominated (they usually don’t deserve to either) yet fury road, arrival, martian, her, gravity,inception, district 9, and avatar did because they stood out. Logan also stands out.

            • djjsin

              I gotta agree with your comments on Logan. If not best picture at least something for Best actor. If rocky can get nominated for rocky 7, then surely and actor who’s been nominated before AND has hosted the awards before should be a consideration, especially after having embodied the role for 17 years and going out with such a bang.

              Let’s be real. Hugh Jackman is the greatest super hero actor of all time. Nothing has come close to the dedication he put into the wolverine character over the years. Through thick and thin he’s been the one constant. That deserves something.

  • TomNewYorker

    My Prediction are

    Battle of the Sexes
    Darkest Hour
    The Current War
    Downsizing
    Dunkirk
    The Greatest Showman
    Suburbicon
    untitled Detriot Riots Project
    untitled PTA Fashion Project
    Wonderstruck

    • happiness

      Battle of the Sexes only deals with a tennis match between the current best female tennis player at the time against a big mouth washed up male player of the past…………can’t see where it would have much dramatic effect.

  • Charlie lerner

    Most people have Dunkirk, The Big Sick Mudbound and call by by your name as the frontrunners. what happened here? lol

    • Who are “most people”? It’s March.

      • Charlie lerner

        is CMBYN excluded because it is a LGBT film?

        • Lamar

          First of all, these are predictions on what will win the Oscar, not what are the best films. Second, I doubt that Clayton has Call Me By Your Name at 36th because it is an LGBTQ film since a year ago he had Moonlight as a frontrunner…

  • Dylan

    Do you think “Get Out” could be an awards contender? I saw it last night and loved it so much

    • Very, very unlikely.

    • Baggins

      If we work together we can give it an ACCA at least

    • Bill

      It sounds unlikely, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Critics Choice nominated it, or even the PGA. Those year end awards could really revive it. Don’t count it out.

    • Raleigh

      I don’t think so, but it would be nice.

  • Stein-Erik Rutledal

    On average how many do you get correct in these “year in advance” predictions? I’m just curious. I mean nobody was expecting Moonlight a year ago while I do remember Collateral Beauty being viewed as an awards candidate.

    • Gabriel

      This time last year, the Top 20 predictions on this website were:

      20. The Girl on the Train
      19. Nocturnal Animals
      18. Sully
      17. Loving
      16. LBJ (pushed to 2017 or goodness knows when really)
      15. La La Land
      14. A United Kingdom (pushed to 2017)
      13. Arrival (then titled “Story of Your Life”)
      12. The Lost City of Z (pushed to 2017; was pretty good actually)
      11. 20th Century Women
      10. The Founder
      9. Moonlight (!)
      8. Rules Don’t Apply (then untitled)
      7. War Machine (pushed to 2017 and apparently shit anyway)
      6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
      5. The Birth of a Nation
      4. Passengers
      3. Collateral Beauty
      2. The Zookeeper’s Wife (pushed to 2017)
      1. Silence

      So, as you can see, a pretty mixed bag, with a collective total of three nominations and zero wins among the top five predicted films. Still, Clayton could see the potential in Moonlight even at this stage, and there’s a good deal of stuff that was certainly in strong contention. In other words, don’t count these early predictions out entirely.

  • oscarstan

    I think we can remove Dunkirk from “Next In Line”. I have a feeling it’s going to wind up being this year’s “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”.

    • So the site owner should remove a film from his predictions because of your feelings?

      • oscarstan

        Yeah, that’s what I’m saying, pal.

        • Lamar

          I think what Gustavo is trying to say is that your feelings do not determine the chances a movie has to receive a nomination

  • Baggins

    Thinking outside the box: Baby Driver

  • Bill

    The Darkest Hour is going to suck like Allied. It’s trying too hard, and that WWII aesthetic is getting worn out. The makeup is going to be gross like it was in Hitchcock and J Edgar, and Joe Wright can be hit or miss.

  • Bill

    What is this absolute dismissal of Call Me By Your Name, which is obviously a contender?

    • Lamar

      Every movie that is listed on this page is considered a contender…including Call Me By Your Name…which is listed under “Other Top-Tier Contenders”

      • Bill

        Yeah but it’s 21. It should be in the top 5.

        • Lamar

          You may have a case for CMBYN being one of the best movies of the year thus far, but as you can see aside from Mudbound, the other movies haven’t even been released yet making it difficult to put CMBYN above them.

  • Bet against Spielberg at your own risk!

    I don’t mean to say he has an infallible Oscar contender, because he hasn’t (Empire of the Sun, Amistad etc.), but every drama he’s made since Munich has been nominated for Best Picture, and his upcoming untitled project is more thematically timely than anything he’s done recently. It’s a sure bet, in theory.

  • Patrick Downing

    Mother! Has a cast with 14 nominations. Only 27?

  • Tobey

    thoughts on get out?

    • Thoroughly enjoy the film but a true long shot to do any damage in a Best Picture race.

  • Bryce

    Here are some early predictions for the 10 Best Picture Nominations in ABC Order. I can give you reasoning if you want me to.

    Blade Runner 2049
    Current War
    Detroit
    Dunkirk
    Logan (That’s right, I said Logan)
    Marshall
    Mudbound
    Paul Thomas Anderson Film
    Shape of Water
    Suburbicon

  • Adventurer

    I’m gonna stick with PTA movie thank you very much. lol Unless Academy snubs him again, which I wouldn’t discount tbh