LEAD ACTRESS
COMMENTARY:
Viola Davis won the SAG and Critics Choice awards and gave gorgeous and humble speeches at both. Glenn Close nominated beside her still scares me because veterans start to gain a large amount of sentiment in any category, especially since she’s never won. If a split does occur, Michelle Williams or Meryl Streep could benefit who funny enough both won the Golden Globes in their respective categories. Rooney Mara’s nomination is the reward and beat out a lot of stiff competition including Tilda Swinton, Kirsten Dunst, and Charlize Theron.
POSITION |
AND THE NOMINATED LADIES ARE… |
| 1 | Viola Davis for “The Help” |
| 2 | Glenn Close for “Albert Nobbs” |
| 3 | Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady” |
| 4 | Michelle Williams for “My Week with Marilyn” |
| 5 | Rooney Mara for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” |
AND THE FINAL PREDICTIONS WERE…
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Viola Davis- |
Glenn Close- |
Michelle Williams- |
Meryl Streep- |
Tilda Swinton- |
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FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
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AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER:: |
AGAINST HER: |
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THE NEXT FIVE |
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Rooney Mara- |
Kirsten Dunst- |
Charlize Theron- |
Elizabeth Olsen- |
Felicity Jones- |
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FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
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AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
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ALSO IN CONTENTION |
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Kristin Wiig- |
Adepero Oduye- |
Michelle Yeoh- |
Keira Knightley- |
Olivia Colman- |
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Kristin Scott Thomas- |
Anna Paquin- |
Emily Watson- |
Juliette Binoche- |
Maria Bello- |
TRACKER |
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JANUARY 22, 2012 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Meryl Streep- |
Tilda Swinton- |
Michelle Williams- |
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DECEMBER 15, 2011 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Meryl Streep- |
Tilda Swinton- |
Michelle Williams- |
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NOVEMBER 20, 2011 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Elizabeth Olsen- |
Meryl Streep- |
Michelle Williams- |
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OCTOBER 28, 2011 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Elizabeth Olsen- |
Meryl Streep- |
Michelle Williams- |
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OCTOBER 1, 2011 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Meryl Streep- |
Michelle Williams- |
Michelle Yeoh- |
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SEPTEMBER 11, 2011 |
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Glenn Close- |
Viola Davis- |
Elizabeth Olsen- |
Meryl Streep- |
Michelle Williams- |
43 Comments
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My current guesses:
Glenn Close – Albert Knobbs *WINNER*
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
I would love to see either Kristen Wiig or Michelle Yeoh get up there with a nomination.
Close, Close, Close. Her film is flawed big time, however based on “The Iron Lady”‘s trailer so is Streep. A split between those two might crown a third actress winner at the end so also watch out for that. This is probably the tightest race of the year so far. So I have nothing to say except watch out for all of them.
Viola Davis, really? With Glenn out of the way (sort of) I think this will be Meryl´s year. Go Meryl!!!
It’s sort of ballsy to put Davis that close when she hasn’t yet declared what category she will go, and when her role is so debatable, let alone the race card. I mean let’s be honest it will be probably the hardest win EVER in the history of the awards if she pulls it off! I still think she will go supportive, her film is already slowly being forgotten. People are already giving up on Stone. It would be a safe bet for her to go supportive, but she if she is up to the challenge it would be wonderful to see this play out. I still think Close will win, she will win because she has never won. However I won’t be surprised if Streep and Close split and something else wins, that could happen very easily. The think against Close is the reviews of her film, not very nice. Based on the trailer I predict the same for Streep so I still think that a third player will benefit from that split. Forget Yeoh, I have no clue where you got the impression that she was up that high, her film was at best an after thought. Bump Mara for at least the next five if you don’t like her. This race is getting messy. I say forget about Jones, and put Knighley supportive.
I’m putting Davis in lead for now and like Clayton she’s my number one, just because she’s getting nominated either way.
1. Viola Davis – She’d be a shoe-in in supporting but I think she also has a strong chance her. Streep looks like crap and Close is fading, besides Williams no one else looks capable of winning.
2. Elizabeth Olson – Very strange that neither Clayton or kook have her in. Nothing but praise, show-biz name, young and hot, new face etc.
3. Glenn Close – Huge respect in the industry and the fact she had that huge nomination run then a dry spell means I think she’ll get a nom.
4. Meryl Streep – Argh.
5. Michelle Williams – Seems to be a recent push for her despite the early reviews and I personally don’t know why. Just seems right.
Next in line- Mara (will go straight in if Williams’ reviews get worse), Swinton, Knightley, Jones, Theron, Yeoh, Foster
Kirsten Dunst and Tilda Swinton in place of Williams and Yeoh
YOu got it right. Unless Close or Streep knocks everybody off their seats, Davis should walk out with this award come Oscar night.
I personally, was very impressed with the trailer for “Marilyn.” Granted, it’s just a trailer, but Michelle Williams solidifies her incredible range, from her role in Blue Valentine to the mesmerizing Monroe. Wow. She looks like a contender to win it all.
I think we should consider Emily Watson in the line-up for the film Oranges and Sunshine. The trailer looks promising. What do you think?
Olivia Colman is PHENOMENAL in Tyrannosaur, I find it very hard to believe that any of the top 10 will come near her. It does seem unlikely she’ll get a nod, but if she and the film pick up traction I’m certain she’s in. I think it is a very Oscar friendly performance, it’s way better than Mike Leigh’s caricatures and they always get lots of attention.
Clayton,
Out of top five actresses that you picked, I agree with only one: Michelle Yeoh (and you picked well). Oscar needs one foreign actress(s) to nominate. Other than Ms. Davis, Yeoh is the only non-white name that seemed to pop up again and again as a potential runner-up. And I pray the Oscar will do her justice.
Shall I continue? The second seat, if history repeats itself, would go to Elizebath Olsen. You know how Oscar is, they love young, up and coming new actresses (remember Jennifer Lawrence?) A lot of people seemed to adore Olsen.
The third seat would go to Viola Davis (assuming she doesn’t get knocked down to supporting category). I have not seen ‘The Help’ but it’s quite unanimous to everyone that she should get nominated and even win
Michelle Williams will probably get the fourth seat. I’m leaving the fifth seat open. But I am hoping it will go to Glen Close. In my opinion, I think she is one of the most natural and gifted actress around.
When can we expect the rest of the categories to be updated like the Picture, Director and Actor categories were last weekend?
This weekend
Awesome! I look forward to it!
Alright now this is quite the list. Much more realistic and up to the game than before. Viola Davis is in my opinion facing what I like to call and predicted something called “backlash”. Many want to reward her, not a lot of people know how. “The Help” was huge huge, but critic wise not so much. Her film played early on in the season and people already are trying to find something else to push for. Some say that if the “Blindside” worked for Sandra Bullock this will work for her to. For this to work, she needs to win something, either BFCCA or Globes or it’s not going to happen. The problem with this film is that besides the ensemble cast not much can be done with it, and many other film will just crush it like a fly. To me the front runner is still Close even though her film didn’t fair as people expected. The will reward her for her career before they reward Davis. Streep in my opinion is only a filler unless her film hits the mark and she starts doing some precursor damage ditto for Williams who I think comes in second place at this point. Like I said a lot of people want Davis to win but unless her film doesn’t get a BP nom or some other precursor love it won’t happen. There is I think one spot open at this point. It’s interesting how you put Olsen and Jones up front. A lot of people are predicting an unknown to make it since Mulligan and Lawrence made it through at a young age. Keep in mind this is not a usual Oscar year. The Oscar films are still heavily unseen. Not many people know how many BP noms this year will bring. The race I think is much more mainstream than usual. I think the battle is really between Swinton, Mara, and Theron. I’ll go with Mara until her film proves otherwise. Anyways if the nomination came today it would probably look like this: Close, Williams, Swinton, Davis, and Olsen.
My picks: Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady, Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia, Tilda Swinton for We Need To Talk About Kevin, Viola Davis for The Help. Who I want to win: Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep the ultimate thespian and statistically the most robbed, decorated actor around. She hasn’t won in 30 years since Sophie’s Choice, her only oscar, but since has been nominated a record 9 times. Whoa. She’s won before but someone does not get an oceans amount of nominations with just one win. If she were a baseball player she would never make it out of triple A. Who will win: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady: Not a strong movie but a very strong performance that have many critics already buzzing. I think academy voters will finally wise up to Meryl and say enough is enough.
I don’t see Close winning. I don’t think there’s enough sentimentality to prompt people to vote for her in relatively unknown film. She’ll join the long list of great actors to never win an Oscar. Not bad company to be in. The whole sentimentality thing is played out. It hasn’t been a factor for years now but people keep using it as a variable to predict a winner. It didn’t help Lauren Bacall, Gloria Stuart, Hal Holbrook, Peter O’toole, Albert Finney and others. I don’t think it will help Close either.
Evertime Meryl is nominated we go through this. She will probably deserve to win the best actress award but they will never give it to her. My god, they gave one to Sandra Bulllock over her, for a performance a thousand other actresses could of done better. Viola was good in The Help, but the part wasn’t award worthy. Kirsten Dunst deserves to be nominated for Melanchiolia. She ran through a gamut of emotions during that artful film and deserves it. My guess is that Michelle Williams will take home the oscar. The movie looks really good and so does she. And she has many things within the Hollywood System that cause peple to root for her; her ex-huband died and left her with child, plus, she starredi in Brokeback Mountain, and she has been nominated a few times before. In Hollywood terms, it’s her time.
Early word for the “Iron Lady” is that Streep is Oscar worthy. So that’s a game changer right. What went wrong with Close’s campaign is that this year she is not the only actress that people want to feel sentimental about it. Davis, Streep, and Williams are actresses who have been nominated before and are just waiting in the wing to catch that statue. Solid list. Olsen’s spot is really up for grabs I would say. All of the ladies in the Next Five could grab it, with the exception of Yeon and Knightly, both of their films are dead together with their buzz.
FYI: @Mellisa, Streep has been nominated a record 16 times. 13 in the lead category alone. She has also 2 Academy awards. One lead and one supportive. You seem like you are new to the game but one of my personal pet peeves is when people speak about things they don’t know much about themselves.
1. Viola Davis – Frontrunner right now and a certain nominee
2. Meryl Streep – Argh again
3. Michelle Williams – Gaining steam
4. Glenn Close – Holding on
5. Rooney Mara – Needs the film to be a hit obviously
6. Elizabeth Olson – Needs critic awards
7. Charlize Theron – Unsure of her chances right now
8. Tilda Swinton – Possible wildcard
I’m really sad that Mia Wasikowska has been dropped entirely from the possibilities. I wouldn’t expect a nomination at this point, but of 20 actresses she can’t find a spot? Pity, she did a good job.
As of right now I’d say that Davis, Williams, and Streep have virtually guaranteed spots, and the last two are open to a slurry of possibilities (namely Dunst, Olsen, Jones, Close, Yeoh, Theron, Binoche, Swinton, Knightley, and Mara). I’d tentatively guess the final spots will be taken by Dunst and Theron, but that is by no means a sure prediction.
Streep should take the award home. She hasnt won since sophies choice and although she aslo won a second for supporting for kramer vs kramer a third win will be justified. Other noms will be williams, olsen, davis and swinton. Oh and melissa don’t fret over this GL douchebag he just likes you. Its pathetic to know that someones pet peeve is to prove people wrong over bullshit as trivial as this. Lame o
Looks like you got some serious updating to do, Mr. Davis!
LOL. I’m working on them now.
I have a feeling it is a 3 way race between Streep (so overdue), Davis (the frontrunner) and Williams (great young talent/perhaps next Meryl Streep). Swinton and Olsen are my picks to complete the Top5. Still sad that Yeoh’s film was such a disappointment! My current list is like this:
1. Viola Davis (Nom Lock and Frontrunner)
2. Michelle Williams (Nom Lock and Possible Critic Darling This Yr)
3. Meryl Streep (Nom Lock & She’s Meryl LOL)
4. Tilda Swinton (Possible Nom/NBR helped alot)
5. Elizabeth Olsen (AMPAS loves hot newcomers)
6. Charlize Theron (awesome playing a funny bitch)
7. Glen Close (Film Reception hurt alot)
8. Felicity Jones (Either her or Olsen)
9. Rooney Mara (Unknown ATM)
10.Olivia Colman (I wish D:)
11. Kristen Wiig (Not Happening but 1 can dream!)
Keeping Davis still as the front-runner I think is a little ballsy. Streep so far as the most precursors followed by Williams and Davis behind. Swinton seems to have settled for a comfortable nomination while Close is just lucky to make it through. Her position is the most unsure of all of them. But I do think right now this is our 5 this year.
1. Michelle Williams
2. Meryl Streep
3. Viola Davis
4. Tilda Swinton
5. Glenn Close
Close vs Swinton vs Theron I think. Only two can make it…
Close is the most unsure, while Swinton is fairly comfortable. How things have changed. Theron or Mara could be taking Close’s spot. I do agree that Davis is the most likely winner though, with Streep close behind.
Actually Michelle Williams has won the most precursors followed by Swinton & Streep. I still have the funny feeling that the actor’s branch will carry Close to her 6th Oscar nomination. Despite Davis being the frontrunner i feel her in danger of losing to Williams o Oscar night.
My predictions right now are:
1-Michelle Williams
2-Meryl Streep
3-Viola Davis
4-Tilda Swinton
5-Glenn Close
Alt: Elizabeth Olsen / Rooney Mara
I have the feeling that Michelle Williams will win the Oscar this year. Meryl Streep still has a good chance but I give up on the Academy rewarding her a 3rd… I don’t think Viola Davis will win… first off I still have my doubts that the Academy will vote for her as Lead… (I consider her role in The Help to be supporting). Tilda Swinton has reached a place where a nomination is perfectly possible: GG, SAG, NBR… and I’m sure BAFTA will go for her (and I wouldn’t surprise me if she wins the BAFTA). Whoever fills the fifth spot (at this moment Close imo) don’t stand a chance at winning over those four actresses.
In my personal opinion out of the movies I’ve seen from this category (The Help, Albert Nobbs and We Need to Talk About Kevin) my personal winner is Tilda Swinton but I have yet to see the other 2.
I say Rooney Mara has a good chance of knocking out Glen Close.
As I have said before, this race is solely a 3woman race. Davis is currently the frontrunner with Williams and Streep close behind. Swinton seems safe at the moment for a nomination with SAG/BFCA/GG/BAFTA noms. The final spot seems to be a tossup between Close and Mara. The safe bet would be Close though TGWTDT is clearly loved by the guilds. If Mara is to make the top5 it would come at Close’s expense. In terms at actually winning although Davis is the frontrunner, she is no sure thing. My gut feeling is that Michelle Williams or Meryl Streep will win on Oscar night. We should have a clear consensus frontrunner i feel at the SAG (Davis won BFCA, Streep and Williams won GG).
1. Viola Davis (Frontrunner but not predicting ftw)
2. Michelle Williams (Playing Hollywood icon/Could easily upset)
3. Meryl Streep (Is Meryl Streep/GG speech was awesome)
4. Tilda Swinton (Happy to be nominated)
5. Glenn Close (Acting Branch should help her get nom, but most vulnerable of the Top5)
6. Rooney Mara (Film has support but missed BFCA/SAG/BAFTA)
7. Elizabeth Olsen (Chances died after GG/SAG snub)
8. Charlize Theron (Was sensational but film was not universally recieved)
Come on, Clayton… My girl (Meryl) is no number 4 in this race. With a Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama and a win a the NYFCC, there´s NO WAY she´s behind Glenn Close or even Michelle Williams, for that matter… She´s even a likely winner at the BAFTA´s… sure they´re not crazy for her, but who knows this time – playing a brit. It´s very unlikely that Meryl will win the SAG award, since she´s won 2 lately…. Even Glenn Close could end up being recognized there. They do love their veterans – Roby Dee, Julie Christie, Gloria Stuart, Annette Bening, to name a few; But if Michelle Williams wins (SAG), then I say Viola Davis´ chances decrease even more… Actually, the worst thing that could happen to Viola is having Octavia be a frontrunner and probable winner. That´s recognition ENOUGH for “The Help”, and I hope Academy voters feel the same way. Viola is good in it – but she´s not THAT good. SAG and BAFTA will play an important part defining who the frontrunner actually is… But it´s one of the three – Viola-Meryl-Michelle – alright.
Now that the Oscar nominations have been announced, I’m very excited for the awards, most especially my favorite category, the “Best Actress” award. In my opinion, there are three real contenders for this Oscar: Michelle Williams, Viola Davis and the legendary, Meryl Streep. However, the woman that will be accepting this award on February 26th, should be NONE OTHER than Meryl Streep. Her last two “meaty” roles in Doubt and Julie and Julia were noticed. In fact, Meryl should’ve won her 3rd Oscar for her amazing portrayal as Julia Child. Now she has personifed the presence of Margaret Thatcher. I don’t see the Oscar going to anyone else. I ADORE Viola Davis and I think that she is an amazing actress, but I do think her role in The Help is too cliche. It’s too easy for her. In my opinion, Viola should’ve won her first Oscar for her supporting role in Doubt….that 10 minutes of screen time in the movie, was extraordinary! Finally, Michelle could be the major upset between these two front runners, but I don’t think that she’ll win. Yes, she was an amazing Marilyn Monroe, but even Marilyn herself did not win an Oscar, I highly doubt that Michelle’s role here will get her, her first Oscar. I could be completely wrong. Glenn Close is a veteran and yes, she could win. It’s a shame, because Glenn really should’ve won for Fatal Attraction. I still get the creeps after watching her. Rooney Mara should just be happy to be part of this elite 5.
Here R lots of pages which need to get updated…! e.g the above prediction and also precusrsors…!!!
Please
You are SO wrong. Close in second place? Rooney Mara has a better chance of winning than Glenn Close. It is basically a race between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep with Davis given the edge.
What does Mr. Davis exactly mean by “Michelle Williams and Meryl Streep who funny enough won the Golden Globes”??… Since when it’s “funny enough” that the most deserving performances in their respective categories won an award?
Viola Davis has the edge here. It isn’t often that African Americans get nominated and when they do with very strong performances they will more than likely win.
I would love to see Meryl Streep take it though. The woman has been nominated 17 times….it’s time!
Meryl Streep for the win. Viola Davis had her moment at the BFCA and SAG Awards – and her speeches were anything BUT humble. They were pretentious and cliché – what an effort she´s making to ‘touch everyone´s heart’ with that soapy white-guilt card… Pathetic, really. It´s almost like she´s saying “Honor colored women and vote for me!”… Or: “Recognize me with what women like Aibileen never could achieve!” Give me a break, Viola Davis!!! Your performance is good, sure, but nowhere near Mo’Nique´s (or even Gaborey Sidibe´s, for that matter). Hopefully Octavia Spencer’s (undeserved win) will be recognition enough for this dreadful, childish, racist, ridiculously corny film. It has one of the worst directing jobs and poorest scripts amongst all other nominees – in any category – this year. By the way, every movie that won Oscars for both Lead and Supporting Actress was AT LEAST NOMINATED for a Best Screenplay Oscar – that is, “Gone with the Wind”, “Network” (1976), “Moonstruck” (1987), “The Piano” (1993) and “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), ALL WON OSCARS FOR BEST SCREENPLAY – and “A Streetcar Named Desire”, “The Miracle Worker” and “Who´s Afraid of Virginia Woolf” were all nominated for it!!! “The Help” isn´t even nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay – rightfully!!! Shame on whoever thinks that recognizing this garbage is honoring blacks’ heroic efforst and struggle against racism!!!
It seems the above file hasnt been updated for a while…!
Things have changed and now Meryl is the most front runner…! don U really think so…!?
To CD: your dislike of Meryl Streep has been obvious for several years now but you need to face facts and accept that following the BAFTA’s she has emerged as the frontrunner for Best Actress. She is beloved in the film industry and the Academy, particularly the actor’s branch, wants to give her another Oscar. She gives a brilliant performance in otherwise mediocre film just as Viola Davis gives a very good performance in a mediocre (but financially successful) film. Streep will win and you will have egg on your face.
Meryl Streep VS Viola Davis is basically what this category is about now basically with Michelle Williams being the spoiler should a split occur (remember Adrien Brody). I have to agree that Streep is the slight frontrunner at this point given the fact that Streep and Davis has split all major precursors thus far. Davis has BFCA and SAG while Streep won GG & BAFTA. In all honesty this category could go either way. Personally am pulling a Streep/Williams win.