MOTION PICTURE
COMMENTARY:
“The Artist” has been the one to beat for months now. The Weinstein factor is a huge factor to have behind it. It’s also has charm, quality, and the guild backups. If there is an upset, Tate Taylor’s “The Help” could be it. Without the director nomination you ask? Yes. “Driving Miss Daisy” did it back in the day, although “Daisy” did have Editing and Screenplay behind it. It’s an actor’s movie where they’re likely to embrace performers Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer. “Crash” defeated “Brokeback Mountain” so AMPAS has been known to throw a wrench out there once in a while. “Hugo” is the most nominated film of the bunch which could show the love for it but with no momentum from SAG, the film doesn’t anything to catapult off of besides the Directors win from the Golden Globes. “The Descendants” is dead. Plain and simple. Anything from #5 down is just lucky and happy to be there.
POSITION |
NOMINATED FILMS |
| 1 | “The Artist” |
| 2 | “The Help” |
| 3 | “Hugo” |
| 4 | “The Descendants” |
| 5 | “The Tree of Life” |
| 6 | “War Horse” |
| 7 | “Midnight in Paris” |
| 8 | “Moneyball” |
| 9 | “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
THE FINAL PREDICTIONS WERE:
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“The Artist” |
“Hugo” |
“The Descendants” |
“Midnight in Paris” |
“The Help” |
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FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
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AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
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“War Horse” |
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” |
“The Tree of Life”*** (not predicted for BP) |
“Drive”*** (not predicted for BP) |
“Moneyball”*** |
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FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
FOR IT: |
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AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
AGAINST IT: |
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ALSO IN CONTENTION |
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“The Ides of March” |
“Bridesmaids” |
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“J. Edgar” |
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“Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows Part 2” |
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” |
“Shame” |
“My Week with Marilyn” |
“Martha Marcy May Marlene” |
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“Young Adult” |
“The Iron Lady” |
“Contagion” |
“The Adventures of Tintin” |
“Super 8” |
TRACKER |
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JANUARY 22, 2012 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” |
“The Help” |
“Hugo” |
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“Midnight in Paris” |
“War Horse” |
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DECEMBER 15, 2011 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
“Hugo” |
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“Moneyball” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
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NOVEMBER 20, 2011 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
“The Ides of March” |
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————————- |
“Moneyball” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
—————— |
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OCTOBER 28, 2011 |
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——————— |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
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———————– |
———————– |
“Moneyball” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
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OCTOBER 15, 2011 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
————————- |
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“Moneyball” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
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OCTOBER 1, 2011 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
“The Ides of March” |
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“Moneyball” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
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SEPTEMBER 11, 2011 |
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“The Artist” |
“The Descendants” |
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” |
“The Help” |
“The Ides of March” |
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“J. Edgar” |
“Moneyball” |
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” |
“The Tree of Life” |
“War Horse” |
35 Comments
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Comment Test.
My current guesses:
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo *WINNER*
The Help
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse
J. Edgar trailer leaked today, doesn’t look very impressive. Has the same underwhelming feel to it that the first clips, and in the end the whole of, Invictus had.
Now this is more like it. Strong prediction of the race so far. I don’t think this will be a year of 10 though. Right now based on what is available for people to see, “The Artist” and “The Descendants” are the only strong pics here. “War Horse”‘s trailer was very AMPAS taste, so that’s something to watch out for. “J. Edgar” on the other hand was very much like “The Iron Lady”. Might just be about the performance. Plus it had this “The Aviator” vibe all over it. “Ides of March”‘s fate will be decided based on America’s reaction and box office profit. Likewise for “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”, and “A Dangerous Method”. “A Tree of Life”, “Drive” could happen, or it couldn’t, it will depend on its campaign alone. “Moneyball” and “The Help”, only one will make the cut. I say forget about “Warrior”, “Hugo”, and “We Bought A Zoo”. Keep an eye on ““Midnight in Paris”, “Shame”, and ““Martha Marcy May Marlene””
1. War Horse – Has all the elements
2. The Descendents – Has the runs on the board
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Same as War Horse. I don’t want to be writing this title too much though.
4. The Artist – Seems to be a go.
5. Moneyball – Great reviews, easier viewing that the public is enjoying.
6. J. Edgar – Could be bad, but mostly looked solid from the trailer.
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Got a feeling
Next in line- The Tree of Life, The Help, Tinker, The Ides of March. Still some unknowns.
It’s definitely as good a list as can be at this point in time. I would just like to add a picture into the pot, “Win, Win”. A small picture indeed with the disadvantage that it came out early in the year, but it is a solid script, performances are outstanding and it’s a feel good move much in the vein of “Little Miss Sunshine.” It just may have a shot if ten films are nominated.
I just saw The Help and I predict that it wil definitely be one of the films nominated for best picture.
It saddens me that Drive has fallen out of the Top 10. I think it is one of those that is simply “too good” for its own good.
I’m probably going to sound ridiculous here, but I’ve been having a thought lately, and wanted to put it out there in case I end up being right.
After the backlash over the nomination for The Blind Side, voters may be shy about putting The Help on their ballots. Thats not to say they will shun blockbusters completely, and the more I think about it, the less crazy it seems that Bridesmaids could occupy that slot.
I don’t think the voters give a damn really. They’re more inclined to try and justify their “wrong” choices than try and fix them.
I agree with thomasj76, unfortunately. If Drive makes it in the top 10, it will be just barely, but I would say it misses. However, I too wonder if Midnight in Paris will make the top 10. A very enjoyable film, but I wonder if it will last the remaining months; my gut says doubtful. I feel Ides of March may lose popularity as well come voting time and J. Edgar, though DiCaprio will likely get nominated, will be a hit or miss (a la Invictus). Interested to see Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (I too was very impressed with the trailer), and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which may get some votes for the top 10 if there are any voters who still have a sour taste in their mouth from The King’s Speech slipping passed Fincher’s The Social Network last year). I don’t see too many other films that will have a good shot for the top 10 as of now; many will get their love in the acting, screenplay and technical categories.
I can see where you could think that, and in certain cases it has been true that the Academy does try from time to time to justify their causes by voting on a particular category to show a different take. For example Penn winning Best Actor for Milk after the Academy was called out by choosing “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain”. But in most cases they do what they want. I am excited that as the race proceeds I am not the only one who doesn’t think 10 nominees will be necessary this year. I am still predicting only one to take the BS spot between “The Help” and “Moneyball”. I don’t see both of them making in. And I think “Moneyball” has a better chance. As the precursors begin I think “The Help” will be quickly forgotten or just coming short of scoring anything big.
Now just a couple of opinions about the new list. After seeing “The Artist” I am sure that the film will be a huge BP contender. The older audience at NYFF were dying of laughter and jubilation from this. However, though enjoyable I never found the film “The Best” The silent theme works for it and at some points against it so that’s for sure a thing to keep an eye for. “The Tree of Life” is a film that’s going to have to work a lot through the precursors in order to stay in the game. So far to me “The Descendants” is the film to beat. I do not count nor judge the unseen films. But that is not to say they are out of contention. Also keep an eye for “Hugo”, that is a major player right there.
I see that you left out THE FIRST GRADER which was an Amazing film that came in second place to The King’s Speech at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. The male actor, Oliver Litondo was absolutely brilliant in it. Wish more people knew about it because it really was moving and inspirational. Even Whoopi loved it… check out what she had to say about it on The View: http://youtu.be/pXXGW-kDTO8
I also found the trailer on Youtube Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-eBT7vnTLE
I see that you left out THE FIRST GRADER which was an Amazing film that came in second place to The King’s Speech at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. The male actor, Oliver Litondo was absolutely brilliant in it. Wish more people knew about it because it really was moving and inspirational. Even Whoopi loved it… check out on youtube what she had to say about it on The View
I also found the trailer on Youtube Trailer
My picks: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, J. Edgar, War Horse, Drive, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Take Shelter, The Artist, The Tree of Life, Moneyball. Who I want to win: Drive. Drive is one of the most technically well made, most oriiginal pictures I’ve seen in a long time. I went to the theatre multiple times to watch this taut, thrilling movie. Once in a while a film will come along that has a phenomenal impact on me and this is most definetly one of them. Who will win: Something tells me that The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will win this year. It seems like an atmospheric work with huge talent in front and behind the camera. I’m not sure what it is but I have a strong feeling this film will take the big prize home. Also, I don’t know who’s in charge of this Awards Circuit site but to think that The Help is a oscar front runner for best picture is a down right error, and travesty. I laughed when I noticed it as one of the favorites. MY ASS. And one last thing: The Ides of March will not be nominated for squat this year. Take that to the bank.
Oh and I inadvertingly left out another almost certain pick: The Descendants.
@Melissa though yes it is sort of a travesty that “The Help” is being conversed in a serious way about a BP nom, chances are it will. Box Office success, amazing story, incredible performances. Remember the “Blind Side”, now multiply that by 10 and you find yourself with “The Help”. This list is pretty accurate with what’s going on now in the race. It has really come down to “The Descendants”, “The Artist”, and “War Horse”. The only problem that I had with “The Artist” is that it felt like a novelty. It was an incredible film don’t get me wrong, but when I took a second look it wasn’t so magnificent to me anymore. And only time will tell if it can hold its silent steam come precursors season. “The Descendants” is really getting the push. You have Clooney and Payne, both have done this game before. And then you have “War Horse”, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” two pictures that can possibly be game changers together with “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”. I have said this before and it is looking like a very strong possibility. Only one “BS” picture will make it. “Moneyball” or “The Help”. The former has a a 91% BFCA score but “The Help” has the genius ensemble it has plus Davis who seems to be the sole force of the film. I still think come Oscar morning only she will be nominated. I say forget about “Ides of March” no one is campaigning like the should for that film. They are pushing for Gosling in the lead which is not going to happen unfortunately. Clooney seems to have diverted his complete attention this season to “The Descendants”. Plus the box offices for that film is less than stellar. I would put Harry Potter in its place since it has the biggest BFCA score of the year making it the best reviewed film so far.
Ok let’s give it a shot:
1. The Artist – Almost certain nominee and probable winner.
2. The Descendents – Second favourite right now
3. War Horse – Could make a big impact
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – As above
5. The Help – Seems to have the box office and support to make it
6. Moneyball – As above. May keep dropping though.
7. Hugo – Should make decent money and getting huge praise
8. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – I have high hopes but not really AMPAS’ cup of tea
9. Midnight in Paris – Liked by pretty much everyone but is there enough love with the new voting system?
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
11. The Tree of Life
12. Harry Potter
13. The Ides of March
Ides of March will not be nominated for anything. I just can’t see it. It failed the hype spectacularly. Also, why the hate for The Help and Moneyball? Both were perfectly good films and I see both getting nominated. War Horse, on the other hand, I just can’t see where all the excitement is coming from. I seem to be in quite the minority on this one, but I really really think that one will disappoint.
Assuming 10 nominees, my picks are:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (only because Daldry can’t not get nominated, it seems)
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball*
The Tree of Life*
Harry Potter*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
Hugo*
Asterisks indicate the half that dropped movies are likely to come from, if the count goes down to seven, as people guess. War Horse, Shame, Drive, and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo are all also possibilities.
I don’t know if any here will agree with me. I recently saw The Tree of Life (I’m slow, I know) and it bored the hell out of me. Yes, it’s a beautiful looking film with some stunning images. And yes, there are a couple good performances. But I was lost in the narrative. A boy and a father’s love hate relationship and how it affected him in life (lost in a metallic and glass filled emptiness?) A metaphysical exploration of the loss of a son as in God and Jesus. and so on and so on. I found myself struggling to stay focused. I have a great respect for Mallick. I loved Days of Heaven and Badlands but he’s was disappointed in The Thin Red Line and the New World. How this movie can make iinto best picture is beyond me.
I am still hoping Drive gets more attention. If the academy decided to go ten again it will take a slot. decendants, war horse, extremely loud, artist, harry pothead, moneyball, girl tattoo, tree of llife, and undervedly the help will also get noms. I just seen the help and it was sentimental and it clearly glossed over the issues that were really happening at the time. The only good thing about the film was Davis. It should not be nominated, but these are the people who nominated the blind side, embarrassing, so there you go.
Got to see Hugo recently, if that movie isn’t considered for multiple nominations I will be surprised. Kingsley was excellent as was his wife in the movie. Also agree on The Tree of Life, talk about pretentious, if that gets nominated I will be very disappointed, I haven’t been that bored in a movie theatre in years.
Let’s just admit that it will be The Artist VS Descendants come Oscar Night unless ELIC or Girl With A Dragon Tattoo pulls a Million Dollar Baby. The Artist is a lock for nomination and is the presumed frontrunner considering it has been cleaning BP wins around the critics circuit awards. The Descendants seems locked for a nomination as well as War Horse. The Help is likely to be in mostly due to its strong performances and massive box office sales. Moneyball is back in the game after a strong showing at The NYFCC. Scorcese’s Hugo should now a considered a threat for a nomination considering its strong reception as well as The Tree of Life (Polarizing but Malick’s fanboys in the Industry is keeping it in the game!) Also Woody Allen returns to form in his film Midnight in Paris. Drive, Shame, Ides of March and among others have an outside shot but only time will tell.
1. The Artist (Nom Lock/Frontrunner/maybe Winner?/i <3 this film)
2. The Descendants (Nom Lock/Clooney Film/Sideways any1?)
3. War Horse (Good Not great/Spielberg/Early Frontrunner Status Hurt Chances)
4. MoneyBall (Solid Film/Mainstream Support Carrying it Through)
5. The Help (Very Likely Nom, Avg Film, Brilliant Performances, Great Box Office Enuf Said)
6. Hugo (Scorcese/Sentimentality/Possible Nom)
7. Drive (Not Likely but……who knows….)
8. Extremely Loud Incredibly close (UNKNOWN)
9. Girl With The Dragoon Tattoo (Fincher/UNKNOWN)
10.Midnight In Paris (Woody Allen….enuf said)
11. Ides Of March (good not great…..)
12. Shame (NC-17/AMPAS loves naked women, naked men…not so much)
13. Bridesmaids (I so hoping AMPAS is cool enough)
By the way, RIP J Edgar……..
By the way things are shaping up in the precursors I’d have Hugo ahead of Ides of March, Moneyball and Midnight in Paris right now.
Is it just me or is this race shaping up more to be a “The Artist” VS Hugo with Descendants/Moneyball being simply spoilers at this point?
when are the new predictions coming out??
You have said that ‘Moneyball’ missed out on the Globe. IT DID NOT. It was nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama (please make the appropriate correction). Brad Pitt was nominated for Best Actor (Drama), and Jonah Hill was nominated for Best Supporting Actor. It’s got a great chance to be nominated for Best Picture.
Right now “The Artist” is the one to beat for sure. I would say “Hugo” and “Tree of Life” are close behind. “The Descendants” and “War Horse” are just holding steady. All other films can still make an impact but they need to do it by winning either Globe or BFCA or it just won’t happen.
1. The Artist
2. The Descendents
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. War Horse
6. Moneyball
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
NOT NOMINATED
8. The Tree of Life
9. Midnight in Paris
10. The Ides of March
The latest format for this site is great, except for this sections. Not being able to space out our comments is really annoying.
First, posters for Drive and Young Adult are switched.
Second, I think EL+IC is out of the running. It has very little precursor support, and unless there’s an incredible (ha) boost in popularity and buzz when it’s released I can’t see it making an impact. I also think TGWTDT’s chances are being underestimated. Oscar will want to make it up to Fincher for last year’s loss.
At this point Bridesmaids chances of getting BP nomination is looking better and bettter with notices from GG, SAG/PGA/WGA. It is clearly loved by the guilds and has good industry support. Bridesmaid is my NO GUTS NO GLORY PICK for a BP Nom.
Can I please just say that I am disappoined with the sudden lack of love for War Horse, and in fact I now see a major fault with this whole speculation thing. Throughout the entire year, my hopes were raised for War Horse on the awards front, and having seen the film, I am certain that it is worthy of some recognition not just by a nomination, but actual wins. To be fair it does have a sporting chance at Best Picture, having been nommed by GG and PGA. However, I now realise it is wrong to watch a film and think “This is going to win a lot of Oscars”, because months ago everyone was claiming War Horse would be the best of the year, but now other films have come along, Circuits such as this one are saying it doesn’t have a prayer.
I really enjoyed War Horse, but my hopes are now dashed for it being immortalised by Oscar. The Artist probably has more a chance now, but I still think War Horse deserves to be rewarded one way or another.
My predictions for Best Picture are as follows, starting with those that I consider to be absolute locks for a nomination:
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
WAR HORSE
Alternates/Additions:
BRIDESMAIDS
DRIVE
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
In an ideal world:
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART TWO
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SUPER 8
I have to tell you that they have been doing an offbeat advertising blitz on tv for The Descendants. I wouldn’t be surprised if it came in from behind and took the prize. Although I agree that the Artist is probably going to win.