UPDATED – JANUARY 17, 2017 – Casey Affleck has swept everything up until now, and we look to SAG to turn it around for Denzel Washington.  All it takes is a tip there and it moves in his favor.  Sidenote: Washington has never won a SAG award.  We’re starting to see some people prepare for a Ryan Gosling upset in a “La La Land” sweep but that seems less likely.

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

  1. Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea
  2. Denzel Washington – “Fences
  3. Ryan Gosling – “La La Land
  4. Andrew Garfield – “Hacksaw Ridge
  5. Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic

THE NEXT FIVE

  1. Joel Edgerton – “Loving
  2. Andrew Garfield – “Silence
  3. Tom Hanks – “Sully
  4. Jake Gyllenhaal – “Nocturnal Animals
  5. Adam Driver – “Paterson

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

  1. Chris Pine – “Hell or High Water
  2. Michael Keaton – “The Founder”
  3. Miles Teller – “Bleed for This
  4. Warren Beatty – “Rules Don’t Apply
  5. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “Snowden
  6. Nate Parker – “The Birth of a Nation
  7. Ethan Hawke – “Born to be Blue”
  8. Don Cheadle – “Miles Ahead
  9. Ben Affleck – “Live By Night
  10. Sunny Pawar – “Lion

ALSO IN CONTENTION

  1. Dave Johns – “I, Daniel Blake
  2. Matthew McConaughey – “Gold”
  3. Peter Simonischek – “Toni Erdmann
  4. Brad Pitt – “Allied
  5. Robert DeNiro – “The Comedian”
  6. Joe Alwyn – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
  7. Jeremy Irons – “The Man Who Knew Infinity”
  8. George Clooney – “Hail, Caesar!
  9. Michael Fassbender – “The Light Between Oceans
  10. Colin Farrell – “The Lobster

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

  1. Logan Lerman – “Indignation
  2. Mark Wahlberg – “Patriots Day
  3. Cliff Curtis – “The Dark Horse”
  4. Lewis MacDougall – “A Monster Calls
  5. Alden Ehrenhreich – “Rules Don’t Apply
  6. Shahab Hosseini – “The Salesman
  7. Jake Gyllenhaal – “Demolition
  8. Ryan Reynolds – “Deadpool
  9. Jonah Hill – “War Dogs”
  10. Chris Pratt – “Passengers

UNRANKED CONTENDERS IN PLAY

  • Gael Garcia Bernal – “Desierto”
  • Josh Brolin – “Hail, Caesar!
  • Markees Christmas – “Morris from America
  • Matt Damon – “Jason Bourne
  • Paul Dano – “Swiss Army Man”
  • Jamie Dornan – “Anthropoid”
  • Jesse Eisenberg – “Cafe Society
  • Brendan Gleeson – “Trespass Against Us”
  • Tom Hiddleston – “I Saw the Light
  • Cillian Murphy – “Anthropoid”
  • Jesse Plemons – “Other People
  • Daniel Radcliffe – “Swiss Army Man”
  • Edgar Ramirez – “Hands of Stone”
  • Xavier Samuel – “Love & Friendship”
  • Parker Sawyers – “Southside with You”
  • Michael Shannon – “Midnight Special
  • Will Smith – “Collateral Beauty”
  • Mark Wahlberg – “Deepwater Horizon
  • Anton Yelchin – “Green Room

CHECK OUT OTHER CATEGORIES:

PICTURE |DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR |SUPPORTING ACTRESS |ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY |ADAPTED SCREENPLAY |ANIMATED FEATURE |PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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  • Roberto Hevia

    After watching “Her”, I can say that Joaquin Phoenix is a GREAT, GREAT actor. I mean, he’s a chameleon and ballsy actor. Is one the best actor of his generation. He can play villians so well like he did in Gladiator but also can create complex characters like he did in The Master and Her. They owe him an Oscar for The Master and they definetely, the owed him a nomination for Her (personally, his best performance to date)

  • Eoin Daly

    It comes down to 6 men at this point sight unseen contenders with me agreeing with you on Phoneix, Pitt, Carrel and Keaton.Then it comes down to Waltz and O’Connell and if I consider Waltz to be lead or supporting, then O’Connell will be a big breakout in 2014 with a possible best picture frontrunner were he plays the lead. In the end I put to Waltz to supporting and included O’Connell. It seems like another strong year for lead actors which will be fun.

  • Aaron

    “Secrets & Lies”

  • KevinKlawitter

    If the reviews are any indication, Russell Crowe has apparently done some of his best work in years in “Noah”. If that’s the case, given Aronofsky’s track record at getting his actors nominated, he’s probably at least as much of a contender as Christian Bale is

  • Brett Greer

    Adam Sandler needs to be recognized more as not just some whack job in movies, the guy is very good at dramatic roles

  • Anthony Moseley

    Benedict Cumberbatch deserves a higher position. He’s a fantastic actor who’s playing in a film that will no doubt be something Oscar voters will go for. I’m not so sure about Pitt or RBJ.

  • Josh

    Don’t underestimate Ralph Fiennes in Grand Budapest, his role might be exactly what the academy goes for.

    • Anthony Moseley

      I think it might have released too early in the year for Fiennes to be a big Oscar contender. A GG nomination in the ‘Music of Comedy’ category is pretty much guaranteed though.

  • Nick Fraser

    Nicolas Cage for Joe and Russell Crowe for Noah both deserve spots on this list. Absolutely fantastic performances.

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    For ’99 Homes’, Andrew Garfield is lead and Michael Shannon is supporting (or rather, opposing). Andrew Garfield plays a father trying to get his life back together, while Michael Shannon plays a villainous, greedy real estate broker who evicts them.

  • Lionel Fox

    I highly doubt that Christoph Waltz’s role in Big Eyes will be categorized as Supporting.

  • TomNewYorker

    im hoping sandler could get nominated for The Cobbler or Men, Women & Children. im a huge Sandler Fan, i love all of his movies.
    Reign Over Me is also my favorite.

  • Blake

    Great list, but Renner needs a serious bump here. Focus is loving him just like they loved Dallas Buyers Club and Matt, not to mention the last time Renner headlined a drama he ended up with a best oscar nom. He is playing to his strengths here, with good material too.

  • David Leary

    No love for Bill Harder ‘Skeleton Key’

  • Any thoughts about Tom Hardy in “Locke”?

  • ketzo

    Why Michael Fassbender is so down?

  • Austin

    Okay I know this sounds crazy but I think Adam Sandler should at least get a nomination I mean after making to of the worst films of all time (Jack and Jill and That’s my Boy) I think the man deserves a comeback

  • Lee

    Clayton–
    I’m fairly certain that Macbeth is set to have a 2015 release date. TWC has pretty much indicated as such and their fall slate is already pretty booked!

  • no actor will come close to what #Depardieu does in welcome to new york http://t.co/RyknbNwySj

  • Can we please do something, anything, to move Tom Hardy up that list? Insane performance that incredible already forgotten.

  • David Leary

    How come you haven’t include Chandler Rylko for ‘The Toy Soldiers’ his performance is fabulous

  • huh. very interesting that you put oyelowo back and pulled bradley cooper wayyy back.

  • huh. very interesting that you put oyelowo back and pulled bradley cooper wayyy back.

  • CMON DAVID! “: 2015 Oscar Predictions – Best Actor – http://t.co/vwpOMozXEl http://t.co/CBbwLGoAPD”

  • I don’t understand how Brendan Gleeson doesn’t have more thrust behind him.

  • I’m going to cry because Keaton will lose this, and it’s probably his only chance. DAMN YOU OSCAR!

  • I would love this to happen. I think Redmayne being everywhere this season gives him the edge.

  • Focus buried Kill the Messenger but no excuse for critics to ignore it. Renner should be high on this list. @killthemess2014

    • Fair Game
      Kill The Messenger
      Truth

      important stories get mediocre movies

  • you really think depp got a shot?

  • I was wondering the same thing about Gyllenhaal and the potential vote split. Like Thornton in 01.

  • J2020

    Alden Ehrenreich in “The Yellow Birds” and if he gets Han Solo movie this only increse his chances.

  • tia maria

    What about Charlie Hunnam in Lost City of Z, you have Robert Pattinson and Sienna Miller as possible contenders in their respective supporting roles yet no mention of Charlie as a lead actor contender.

  • Marwin 1994

    Nicholas Hoult and Henry Cavill for Sand Castle

  • Marwin 1994

    My Prediction:
    1. MICHAEL KEATON – The Founder
    2. MICHAEL FASSBENDER – The Light Between Oceans
    3. CHRIS PRATT – The Passengers
    4. NICHOLAS HOULT – Equals
    5. DENZEL WASHINGTON – Fences

    Other Contenders:
    6. RYAN GOSLING – La La Land
    7. WOODY HARRELSON – Wilson
    8. DEV PATEL – Lion
    9. CASEY AFFLECK – Manchester by the Sea
    10. JOSEPH GORDON LEVITT – Snowden

    • hollywood called snowden a “traitor” so they are hardly going to nominate JGL

      • Luke McGowan

        Hollywood isn’t one person who decides, there are many people involved in this. And they gave an Oscar to a convicted rapist so I don’t think you should count him out.

  • Kuntilanak

    Huh? How do you know? I hope this prediction is off!!!

  • ED1404

    There is one thing that might be a forgone conclusion. Best Actor and/or Actress winners will NOT be white!

  • Tee

    My Predictions:

    1. Will Smith (Collateral Beauty) – A Hollywood veteran and beloved movie star, Smith might be able to pull off a DiCaprio this year and win the goal. He has the talent when he applies himself, but his combined filmography of blockbusters and traditional Oscar films might hurt his chances.
    2. David Oweyolo (A United Kingdom) – This role sounds like it’ll have both substance and some traditional Oscar bait elements. Combine that with the #OscarsSoWhite, and I think Oweyolo’s got his shot at redemption for his snub in 2014.
    3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land) – It’ll be the year of the Gosling. With many praising his performance in The Nice Guys as his career best (myself included), if he can deliver in this film he might be able to earn himself a spot as an award for the year.
    4. Michael Keaton (The Founder) – Keaton’s snub in 2014 hurts still, and I think he’ll get the nomination based both on performance and because of his backing from Weinstein- I doubt they’ll reward him for it though, unless it really delivers.
    5. Denzel Washington (Fences), Andrew Garfield (Silence), or Chris Pratt (Passengers) – This final fifth spot will be a real competition. Zel’s got the charisma as an actor, and the director narrative really pushes him forward here. Where he falls behind is his recent history- while not bad in any way, Zel’s more recent outings are lagging compared to the past. It could be either a welcome back nod, or another role to fall into that category. Garfield and Pratt are both shaping up to be box office champions, and if these roles satisfy it could be their chance to cement their statuses as thespians. Garfield has a slight edge in that regard, since The Social Network has already proven his credentials.

    Other Contenders:
    6. Woody Harrelson (Wilson) – Time to reward one of Hollywood’s most versatile actors?
    7. Colin Farrell (The Lobster) – They owe him for Seven Psychopaths and In Bruges, and he may get that slot should others not deliver.
    8. Michael Fassbender (The Light Between the Oceans) – Fassbender’s becoming a regular, and with a blockbuster like Assassin’s Creed coming out near awards season it might be enough spotlight to get him a nod.
    9. Brad Pitt (Allied) – Pitt’s getting better with age, and this could be an award for his work.
    10. Dev Patel (Lion) – Everyone loves an underdog narrative, both in screenplay and the actor that portrays it.

    • smith and oyelowo played the race card so fu-k them.. i bet my money on Denzel they say he was amazing on stage in ‘Fences’

      • Tee

        Say what you will about the race dard- It might work.

    • lucy

      Brad Pitt, it’s time they recognized a man that gives consistently good performances.

  • JP

    This is just laughable. Casey Affleck is hands down the most buzzed about half way through the year and he’s hovering at 14? Give me a break

    • want to read the script ?

    • Adventurer

      Don’t take it seriously. Most of the expected nominees’ films haven’t even been premiered, so they are basically speculating as of now.

      • lucy

        Exactly, some of these guys will fizzle when their films premiere.

  • Luke McGowan

    1. Michael Keaton (The Founder – looks bombastic in that trailer and he’s hot property right now)
    2. Woody Harrelson (Wilson/LBJ – hugely respected actor, never phones it in. I’ve been watching out for LBJ for years but if Wilson is the right vehicle I won’t complain)
    3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land – this one for some reason already feels like a foregone conclusion)
    4. Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation – Ed Harris style reward nomination for doing the whole passion project)
    5. Matthew McConaughey (Gold – the Academy loves weight gain, and the project sounds interesting, but the McConassaince has been feeble since Interstellar)

    6. Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – I feel very confident about this film but at the same time, I predicted Unbroken to stink when everyone was raving about Jack O’Connell. I have much more faith in Ang Lee than Angelina Jolie though).
    7. Christian Bale (The Promise – because he’s Christian Bale and the Academy loves him)
    8. Joel Edgerton (Loving – I’d love this to be a big player for Nichols and Edgerton and Negga but my gut says not to hope too hard)
    9. Dev Patel (Lion)
    10. Denzel Washington (Fences)

    IF THE MOVIE IS GOOD/BIG ENOUGH ALTERNATE 3
    1. Tye Sheridan (The Yellow Birds – this kid’s performances in Mud and Joe are spectacular, and he truly deserves to be in a Lead Actor lineup)
    2. Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea – the buzz is real)
    3. Joseph Gordon Levitt (Snowden – looks great but which Oliver Stone are we getting?)

  • Giorgi Baskhajauri

    I think Keaton will not win, his acting is similiar to birdman. I hope Denzel will win, hi deserve third oscar

    • lucy

      Is this his third Birdman movie.

      • Giorgi Baskhajauri

        I don’t understand meaning of your question

  • Brady Smith

    I wonder if Wahlberg will ever get a second nomination.

    • Luke McGowan

      He does, for producing The Fighter. He was snubbed for Boogie Nights and The Fighter (in the acting category)

    • lucy

      If we’re lucky he won’t.

  • Luke McGowan

    Update:

    The Five
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    Woody Harrelson (Wilson)
    Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Matthew McConaughey (Gold)

    Next 5
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn)
    Alden Einrehach (The Yellow Birds)
    Christian Bale (The Promise)
    Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea)

    Darker Horses
    Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
    Brad Pitt (War Machine)

  • Tee

    Update:

    Frontrunners:
    1. Will Smith
    2. Michael Keaton
    3. Nate Parker
    4. Woody Harrelson
    5. Joel Edgerton

    Runner-Ups:
    6. Denzel Washington
    7. Ryan Gosling
    8. Casey Affleck
    9. Jake Gyllenhaal
    10. David Oweyelo

    Honorable Mentions:
    11. Tom Hanks
    12. Brad Pitt
    13. Colin Farrell
    14. Michael Fassbender
    15. Christian Bale

    • lucy

      Forget Nate Parker now.

  • Kevin

    I think Bale should be much higher. At least in the top 20. While we don’t know much about the Promise, Bale has become almost a default pick for the academy, even if most people think he’s not deserving.

    • Brady Smith

      He’s almost always solid though. I thought he was good and an ok nomination for The Big Short.

  • Mike

    Maybe I’m crazy, but isn’t Keaton one of those guys like Eddie Murphy or Sylvester Stallone who tends to rub most people in Hollywood the wrong way? Think about it: a loss for Birdman (a humiliating one, considering the “Now, I have to put my speech back in my pocket” moment) and a failed chance at redemption for Spotlight (not even a nomination for an eventual Best Picture winner, despite a weak supporting year AND a New York Film Critics Circle citation) the following year? It doesn’t seem that Hollywood is too keen on rewarding Mr. Keaton. Granted, Eddie Redmayne deserved his Theory of Everything victory, but, still, I think that expecting a Keaton win this year is a stretch. Sure, it’s possible, but I can’t think that it’s so very likely.

    • Luke McGowan

      “A weak supporting year” – seriously? Last year’s supporting category was like 8 names deep just in those who got major citations. In terms of good performances, it was about 20 long.

      • Martin

        Mmmmm…. I also think it wasn’t really one of the strongest supporting years … absolutely loved Bale & Ruffalo – liked Hardy & Rylance – didn’t really see the point besides nostalgic pull and poetic parallels by nominating Stallone … before excellent performances by Michael Shannon (99 Homes) & Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)

        • Luke McGowan

          That doesn’t make it a weak year. That makes it that you don’t like the performances. Whether you liked them or not, there were a good 8 people (the five nominees plus Elba, Shannon and Dano) on the precursor circuit. The SAG winner didn’t even get nominated. That’s a strong year.

          A weak year is 2014, where there were only five people in contention on any of the precursors (Ruffalo, Hawke, Simmons, Norton and Duvall).

  • Martin

    I always hope that at the end of the day it’s the best performance not movie politics that gets the nomination – (therefore I would have given Fassbender last years Oscar for “Steve Jobs” not well overdue Leonardo for 60% of groaning & grunting throughout a movie). BUT without having seen these movies I’m holding thumps for Jake Gyllenhaal & Ryan G
    osling who have failed in the past to get well deserved nominations (Nightcrawler & Southpaw / Blue Valentine ..still can’t understand ???!! & Drive) & David Oyelowo who was so amazing in “Selema” – also can’t understand why they choose “American Sniper”-Cooper over him…. Anyway – love these early bird predictions.. 😉

  • Luke McGowan

    I hope we don’t have to wait two more months for an update, because we know Wilson is a 2017 release now and it’s less fun to check and see outdated predictions. Seriously, all you have to do is move Gosling or Parker into his spot.

  • John

    This is insane! Wilson is releasing in 2017 so there is no point to add Woody in the top five.

  • How are Edgerton and Oyelowo “long” overdue? Oyelowo could’ve (and should’ve) been nominated for Selma recently, but that’s it. Edgerton never really had an acting powerhouse until Loving. A little less hyperboyle would be better.

    • Sam Coff

      guess you’ve never seen Revenge of the Sith

      • Luke McGowan

        Hahahaha Sam! 10/10

    • Luke McGowan

      Edgerton’s been doing stellar work for years. Black Mass, The Gift, Animal Kingdom. He goes back over twelve years and delivers all the time.

    • Patrick Downing

      Oyelowo has had an exceptional stage career.

  • PhC

    Andrew Garfield – “Silence”
    Joe Alwyn – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
    Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic”
    Colin Firth – “The Mercy”**
    Tom Hanks — Sully

  • davi

    Why isnt everyone talking about Dev Patel??

  • Brady Smith

    What about Jonah Hill in War Dogs? He’s been nominated twice and his performance is being praised. I’d think he should at least be put as a possibility.

    • michaeldal65

      Hill hasn’t got a chance…thank god.

  • david

    I hope that Cliff Curtis gets some awards love for his brilliant under the radar performance in The Dark Horse

  • lucy

    Either give Keaton the Oscar or stop nominating him for every single movie her makes. He’s not that good.

    • Brady Smith

      He was only nominated once haha. Unless you’re talking about the predictions and not the actual Oscars.

  • Tee

    Update:

    1. Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation) – He directed himself, he’s a newcomer, he’s in a slavery period piece, and he’s got the OscarSoWhite controversy. If the quality is there, he’s got himself an incredibly strong campaign.
    2. Michael Keaton (The Founder) – In case Parker falls short, I think it’s Keaton’s race to lose. He’s a veteran of the industry, and the fact that so many are rooting for him gives him a compelling case to get the statue. As long as the film produces results, he’s at least guranteed a spot.
    3. Will Smith (Collateral Beauty) – He’s been nominated before, people want him to be rewarded, and he’s got the talent when he applies himself. I don’t think Suicide Spuad’s bad reception will be enough to hurt getting a nomination.
    4. Ryan Gosling (La La Land) – It’s the year of Gosling. It’s a musical performance, and combine that with his career topping work in The Nice Guys, and a nomination might be a reward for the year.
    5. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals) or Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) – Both of these guys have people rooting for them, so I thinkt they’ll split votes and it could go either way. It depends entirely on quality, honestly.

    HM’s
    6. Denzel Washington (Fences)
    7. Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
    8. David Oweyelo (A United Kingdom)
    9. Andrew Garfield (Silence)
    10. Joel Edgerton (Loving)

  • Brady Smith

    Still think Jonah Hill could sneak in for war dogs. Sure the reviews were mixed but his performance was basically praised by everyone including people who said his performance was Oscar nom worthy. Just something to think about for the next time predictions are updated.

  • Jonathan

    1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
    3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    4. Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    5. Joel Edgerton (Loving)

  • Patrick Downing

    6 of 20 have been seen so far (I think). After the Telluride, Venice and Toronto, would be better for firm picks.

  • Luke McGowan

    Mr. Church’s trailer is amazing, that needs to go way up

  • monteg

    My oscar predictions. 🙂

    1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    2. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
    3. Will Smith (La La Land)
    4. Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    5. Michael Fassbender (The Light Between Oceans)

    • Jonathan

      Will Smith for La La Land? Haha

      • monteg

        I correct it.

  • Disney Vasquez

    Where is Gael Garcia Bernal?

  • Sybie

    1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    2. Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation – The newcomer may be exactly what the voters are looking for)
    3. Joel Edgerton (Loving – His demure composure and never-ending commitment gives him a great chance at a nomination and even the win)
    4. Andrew Garfield (Silence)
    5. Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Other Possibilities
    6. Dev Patel (Lion – With a emotional plot, he might just pick up a nomination)
    7. Michael Keaton (The Founder – This Oscar favourite might just sneak into the nominations)
    8. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Underrated Possibilities
    9. Brad Pitt (Allied – It seems to have a slight edge to Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk)
    10. Tom Hanks (Sully – Different from the others, this could be what the voters are looking for)

  • Jonathan

    The predicted five

  • shitbrick

    N ow keaton is not a sure bet.

  • Pierre Le Page

    I think Millie Bobby Brown shout be nominated in category of best actress or best actress in a second role, cause she’s the greatest revelation of the year in the industry of movie (or serie if you like, even if “she’s only 12”.) The serie “Stranger Things” is a great success because of her, in my opinion! Its been a while since social medias/magazins didn’t talk about a serie, so think about it. The industry needs new talents (like Jenny Lawrence for instance), and I think that we get one of the kind! So please, if you’re agree with me, if you share ma opinion, get Millie Bobby Brown nominated for the Oscars 2017.

    • kate

      Actors in a TV series can not be nominated for Oscars, no exceptions. Oscars are for film only. The best award Millie has a chance at is the Emmy which is only for television. She will not likely be nominated for any Oscars any time soon, I’m sorry to disappoint you honey, but you need to be more realistic. But I’m proud of you for wanting to support such a young talent actress.

  • shitbrick

    Early keaton seemed like sure bet but not anymore ?

    • Luke McGowan

      Probably because the film keeps moving and isn’t looking likely anywhere else.

  • Luke McGowan

    Updated:

    1. Casey Affleck
    2. Michael Keaton
    3. Joel Edgerton
    4. Denzel Washington
    5. Ryan Gosling

  • ReallyReallyBigMan

    I see lots of asterisks and absolutely no information as to what they are for.

    • Brady Smith

      It means the movie might be pushed to next year.

  • Brady Smith

    Shouldn’t Jonah Hill at least be in unranked contenders for War Dogs? He did get lots of good notices for his performance and he’s a 2 time nominee. Stranger things have happened.

  • shitbrick

    so now keaton chances are bad

  • Alpha Kenny Buddy

    01. Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
    02. Andrew Garfield, Silence
    03. Denzel Washington, Fences
    04. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    05. Joel Edgerton, Loving

    06. Tom Hanks, Sully
    07. Michael Keaton, The Founder
    08. Brad Pitt, Allied
    09. Dev Patel, Lion
    10. Matthew McCoughney, Gold

  • Julie

    I think the top 5’s correct, at least at this point. There’s usually a strong correlation between Best Picture and Best Actor.

  • Miles Allen

    I didn’t think that Tom Hanks’ performance in Sully was anything special but maybe they might give him a nomination since he got snubbed for Captain Phillips and Bridge of Spies. I would replace him with Jake Gylenhaal for Nocturnal Animals.

  • shitbrick

    hanks did not seem like shoe in for nomination now he does. People thought keaton would win this year but getting a nom looks unlikey now

    • Jonathan

      I wouldn’t say Hanks is a “shoe-in”, but for now he seems likely for a nomination. Keaton’s nomination isn’t unlikely, as he is in the top 10 still.

  • shitbrick

    but keaton is not front runner anymore

  • shitbrick

    If denzel wins 3rd oscar he will join likes streep jack nicholson and daniel day lewis as living actors to win more then 2 oscars

  • Lucas Le Moal

    they can’t forget andrew garfield ! with hacksaw ridge and silence, he is the actor of the year !

  • Lucas Le Moal

    if the were only seven, I would choose : casey affleck (manchester by the sea), joel edgerton (loving), andrew garfield (silence, hacksaw ridge), jake gyllenhaal (nocturnal animals) nate parker (birh of a nation), adam driver (paterson) and viggo mortensen (captain fantastic)

  • Isabele Gomes

    Never Brad Pitt for best actor of 2017.Her Bad husband.

  • Joseph Dutra

    I think Andrew Garfield has a good chance with either Hacksaw Ridge and Silence this year.

  • Luke McGowan

    Okay I have jumped on the Casey Affleck train. I think he’s our winner, unless Denzel blows everyone away.

    • Alec Glass

      likewise

  • GerardoRV

    Why the lack of faith on Michael Keaton?

  • Alpha Kenny Buddy

    October Update:
    01. Andrew Garfield, Silence
    02. Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
    03. Denzel Washington, Fences
    04. Matthew McCoughnhey, Gold
    05. Ryan Gosling, La La Land

    06. Joel Edgerton, Loving
    07. Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
    08. Tom Hanks, Sully
    09. Michael Keaton, The Founder
    I’m thinking it’s Affleck vs. Garfield.

  • jd

    Jake Gyllenhaal delivers another stand out performance in Nocturnal Animals- after brilliant work in Nightcrawler and Prisoners seems a likely shot at lead actor.

  • Jonathan

    Not that they are going to get in, but I’d say Josh Brolin has more of a chance of making it in than George Clooney for “Hail, Caesar!”

    • Adventurer

      If they do get the nods (100% sure they won’t), Brolin is gonna get Lead. Clooney’s a supporting role.

      • Jonathan

        Right 🙂

  • Jonathan

    I’d like to now why, basing off the trailer, Warren Beatty seems to be in the hunt for an acting Oscar for “Rules Don’t Apply”. Him and De Niro I think will only receive Golden Globe (Comedy) nods. “The Comedian” plot seems similar to Billy Crystal’s “Mr. Saturday Night”.

  • FerranZac

    “Could any of them shake up the race?” You obviously think so since you’re predicting them (Beatty and De Niro). The question is why.

  • Adventurer

    If Casey doesn’t win, that’d be one of the biggest Academy snub in history.

  • Orlando Whitcomb-Worden

    Patel is now campaining in Supporting

    • Jonathan

      Source?

  • Jonathan

    Confirmed: 20th Century Fox will campaign Warren Beatty in LEAD Actor and The Weinstein Company will campaign Dev Patel in SUPPORTING Actor.

    • Orlando Whitcomb-Worden

      Awesome, thanks Jonathan

    • Adventurer

      Smart move by Patel since anyone can see that he won’t be getting any nods in lead. I’m doubtful about supporting as well.

      • Jonathan

        He also campaigned in supporting for “Slumdog Millionaire”, receiving a SAG nomination and actually got a nod for lead at BAFTA, arguably losing his spot to Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road”) at Oscars, in a surprise nomination.

  • Kian

    Best Actor in a Leading Role
    (Updated: November 03, 2016)

    At this point, Affleck and Washington are the clear frontrunners. And to be honest, I don’t mind if any of those two wins. They both vehemently deserves it.

    1. Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
    2. Denzel Washington – “Fences”
    3. Joel Edgerton – “Loving”
    4. Ryan Gosling – “La La Land”
    5. Andrew Garfield – “Silence”

  • Jonathan

    This doesn’t really have to do with this race, but does anyone think Denzel Washington deserved Oscar nominations for Philadelphia and American Gangster?

  • Jonathan

    If nominated, Warren Beatty would join Jason Robards and Leonardo DiCaprio for playing Howard Hughes.

  • Jonathan

    “Philadelphia” co-stars Hanks and Washington could be nominated alongside each other.

  • Jonathan

    I’m pulling for Ben Affleck to be nominated in this category because
    1) It would be fun to see Affleck vs. Affleck.
    2) He is an underrated actor, giving terrific performances throughout his career that are arguably overshadowed by his failures. He gave nomination-worthy performances in “Hollywoodland” (Best Supporting Actor) and “Argo” (Best Leading Actor) in my opinion. Judging by the trailer for “Live by Night”, it looks like he will once again knock it out of the park for directing, writing, and acting.

  • FerranZac

    You are still too low on Hell or High Water.

  • Lucas Le Moal

    i want casey affleck (manchester by the sea), joel edgerton (loving), andrew garfield (silence, hacksaw ridge), denzel washington (fences) and viggo mortensen (captain fantastic) !

  • Daniel Motta

    Are you ever going to bring back the format with additional information for each predicted nominee? I really enjoyed the insight in those.

  • Jonathan

    Beatty/Mortenson won’t make it because Beatty’s film was “eh” and his performance got mixed responses and Mortenson’s film is probably to weird for Oscar’s taste and came out pretty early.

  • Alex Gorretta

    I hope to God that Warren Beatty isn’t nominated. Rules Don’t Apply looks awful, and he looks especially lame.

    • Jonathan

      Currently 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, it looks like its best chances are at the Golden Globes in Comedy Categories (Picture, Beatty for Actor) and maybe Best Costume Design and Best Production Design at the Oscars.

  • John Cleaver

    What’s wrong with not having Tom Hanks being nominated for Sully? He’s been up there for a nomination until a man by the name of Warren Beatty came along and replaced him…

  • Demetra

    Here’s what’s actually gonna happen:

    1. Denzel Washington (Fences)
    2. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    3. Tom Hanks (Sully)
    4. Warren Beatty (Rules Don’t Apply) or Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    5. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

  • Kuntilanak

    I hope those predictions are not true.

  • rockyguy

    Rules dont apply is gaining bad reviews and bombing in box office he has another town and country on his hands then oscar nom . Beatty chances are derailed How keaOTNS CHANCES

  • Jonathan

    Gosling has secured the Critics Choice nomination for Best Actor for “La La Land”, so if he wins the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Comedy or Musical I think he’s in here, especially if the film is gonna get swept up everywhere.

  • rockyguy

    founder has gotten amazing review in screenings i wonder why keaton is not a front runner anymore it comes out dec 16 any chance keaton could be a front runner again

  • Nick Fraser

    Garfield, hmmm? I was assuming Hacksaw Ridge would be one of those films Oscar just ignores (Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr Banks, Nightcrawler), but maybe not. Personally loved it.

  • rockyguy

    I assume garfield would have better chance at silence then hackshaw . I feel hollywood still has not quite forgiven gibson so the movie could get snubbed

    • michaeldal65

      Fingers crossed.

  • AJ

    I guess you have now permanently revered a spot for Gosling at #6?

  • Daniel Motta

    This is what I think is going to happen

    1. Casey Affleck
    2. Denzel Washington
    3. Tom Hanks
    4. Joel Egerton
    5. Ryan Gosling

  • Spencer Shannon

    TO THE OWNER & EDITOR, please help! I was getting weekly updates, but they stopped? PLEASE RUSH THEM TO (jeffshannon50@gmail.com)

  • PixarAnimator

    Eddie Redmayne for “Fantastic Beasts & Where to Find Them”

  • A “Sightseer” Is Here

    Casey Affleck has just won Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards plus a slew of other competitive acting awards. I would say he’s become the clear frontrunner for the Best Actor trophy come 2017 Oscars, with Washington as the #2. That’s not to say that Denzel won’t be able to nab the remaining Golden Globe and SAG awards to re-cement his frontrunner status. But he really needs to.

    #!. Caswy Affleck
    #2. Denzel Washington
    #3. Tom Hanks
    #4. Ryan Gosling
    #5. Andrew Garfield

  • michaeldal65

    SAG nods withstanding, I’m wondering if Driver’s work in Silence will give him a boost for his work in Paterson…

    And as much as I like Gosling, he’s a bit of a snooze in La La Land and it belongs to Stone so he might be a casualty.

    Oscar has been known to throw a curveball from time to time.

  • Tee

    1. Denzel Washington
    2. Casey Affleck
    3. Andrew Garfield FOR Silence
    4. Viggo Mortensen
    5. Adam Driver (industry new guy + Star Wars + Paterson & Silence? This could be the WTF of the season)

    • Joshua Black

      I’m thinking similarly that the WTF nod this year happens in this race. Driver seems a good choice, however, if they campaign Driver in supporting it could go that way for silence instead. What about Gyllenhaal? Nocturnal is picking up a bit of steam and Jake should have left over love from a slew of great performances in the last decade.

      • Tee

        I’d be wiling to support Gyllenhaal if the film had more heat. Driver at least has been popping up in several Critics awards to have enough to support a true WTF nod, while Gyllenhaal has never been mentioned. Nocturnal Animals is getting more overall support than Paterson, but Gyllenhaal isn’t showing up in that while Driver is Paterson’s only representation.

  • rockyguy

    looks like keaton chances are derailed. Despite good reviews the movie has been out he has not gotten a single award nom for anything. Hanks is on the bubble he scored he critics choice award but missed out on sags and golden globes. I tihnk it will be denzel casey gosling andrew and viggo

  • Isabele Gomes

    Casey Affleck
    Adam Driver
    Joel Edgerton
    Ryan Gosling
    Denzel Washington

  • Gustavo Toro

    Tom Hanks was ignored at he Golden Globes simply because the Hollywood Foreign Press hates Clint Eastwood. That is all. The same thing happened to Bradley Cooper in American Sniper, which was ignored for the reason I mentioned before.

    • Stein-Erik Rutledal

      Or because it was a bad performance in a bad film and the Academy needs to stop drooling over mediocre biopics.

      • Gustavo Toro

        First, their dislike of Mr. Eastwood is well known. Second, You said it was a bad performance and called the filme “Mediocre”. But that is just your opinion and I respect, but I don`t share

      • Gustavo Toro

        First, Their dislike of Mr. Eastwood is well known. Second, You said it was a bad performance and called the film “Mediocre”, but that is just your opinion and I respect it, but don`t share it.

  • Adventurer

    “Is Tom Hanks seems to be dead”? Needs correction.

    With Ali and Davis looking more and more deadlock for the Supporting prizes, Denzel’s chances is derailed from my perspective. 3 Black actors winning 3 of the acting awards in the same night would definitely generate chatter. Academy would not push the propaganda that much. Also Fences hasn’t generated as much critical buzz for Denzel’s perf as Affleck did for Manchester by the Sea. So my choice of nominations are-

    1. Affleck for Manchester by the Sea (the winner).
    2. Washington for Fences
    3. Edgerton for Loving
    4. Gosling for La La Land
    5. Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge.

  • sailingsam

    Viggo Mortensen is my favorite lead actor performance in Captain Fantastic.

  • Christinia Peake

    What about Mr Church

    • dean

      LOL, that’s a joke right?

      • Christinia Peake

        No apparently you are

  • Spencer Shannon

    HEY BUDDY! I asked you weeks ago how come you don’t have a predict the nominees contest like akll the rest?
    You have a very good suite, but you must let us other pundits give in our 2 cents
    ARE THERE ANY PLANS FOR SUCH A PREDICTION CONTEST?

    • Joshua Black

      Bahaha

  • Spencer Shannon

    Viggo hasn’t a chance for his 2nd nom

  • Lucas Le Moal

    for me seven actors deserve to be nominee : casey affleck, viggo mortensen, andrew garfield, joel edgerton, joseph gordon levitt, dave johns and chris pine

  • Alec Glass

    Clayton I hear you on saying that a film winning best picture and director doesn’t mean the lead actor needs to win, and I hear you that the critics aren’t the academy, but you’re again doing the thing that damns so many pundits by focussing too much on the statistics of it all and a little bit less on the nature of what the film actually is in its content. Michael Keaton was the star of Birdman but that movie was a technical achievement in and of itself. I know several people who loved the film with a capital L and were soft on Michael Keaton’s performance. But in this case, Casey Affleck IS Manchester by the Sea. Every shining moment of the film, every triumph and reason to vote for it in best picture hinges on his performance, so in this case I really think it’s absurd to separate the two. Unlike Birdman, a vote for Manchester in picture IS a vote for the lead actor.

    • Alec Glass

      The same holds up for the other examples you use (Argo, Spotlight, etc.): even when those movies were about the acting more than anything else, they were about the ensemble, not a singular peformance anchoring the film. When considering what categories get dragged along when a film wins best picture, it’s not about what other categories are the biggest: it’s about what categories represent the essence of the film. That’s why I was confident in 2014 that if boyhood won picture, it could still split to inarritu, but if Birdman won picture that t would also surely win director.

    • Adventurer

      EXACTLY! You made my point as well. Argo – Not praised for Ben’s performance. Birdman – Not praised for Keaton’s performance. Spotlight – Not praised for Keaton nor Ruffalo’s performances. The Departed – Not praised for either lead performances. MBtS – Casey’s performance is the centrepiece for its acclaim. There’s a MASSIVE difference those movies and Manchester by the Sea.

  • Alex German

    How are Andrew Garfield’s chances, given that he is in the running for 2 films? Will it be harder to get a nomination because his votes will split or easier because he has had a dominant year? Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this.

    • JonRalphs

      He was better in hacksaw, but hacksaw was a horrible film. His turn in silence is dialogue heavy and actually made the movie annoying.

      • Joshua Black

        Horrible? Exaggerate much?

        • michaeldal65

          No exaggeration. HACKSAW is, along with LION and it must be said, the plodding SILENCE, one of the most overpraised, overrated films of this award season. Why so great? Because Gibson is back? Because of the confronting violence? EYE IN THE SKY, while inarguably released too early to warrant serious consideration (which is a damn shame), is undeniably the war film of the year.

          • Joshua Black

            I cried in hacksaw a couple times…eye in the sky i almost cried…once

            • Joshua Black

              I have this funny feeling that if both hacksaw and hell or high water (which i prefer) don’t both get a BP nom than the one that gets in becomes a dark horse to win…

  • disqus_xxwDaBtW3O

    The Oscars are a popularity contest and Denzel is beloved in Hollywood. He has also never won SAG.

  • Adventurer

    Okay first of all your argument is flawed. Birdman, technically relished film. Not exactly praised for its main lead performance. Spotlight, the same story again, the main praise was directed at the enesemble performance and writing. The Departed, Crash and Argo are bad examples to compare to Manchester by the Sea. The Departed never had its lead performances singled out, nor did Crash and Argo.

    Manchester by the Sea is another story. It’s main praises is centred around Casey’s performance. Fences is going the opposite way, the main praise is centred around Davis and the emotional resonance of the writing not Denzel’s performance.

    Secondly, there’s another argument to be made in Casey’s favour. Supporting Actor – Ali’s the frontrunner. Supporting Actress – Davis is clearly a deadlock for a win. So do you think they’ll give out 3 Acting awards to three Black actors in the same night? Denzel’s a 2 time winner, 3 wins probability is colossally low, add that to the aforementioned statistics and just do the math.

    • Keaton carried Birdman on his shoulders. He was very praised. You didn’t read the reviews.

      • Adventurer

        I particularly said “not exactly praised for its main lead performance” (exactly being stressed here), which does not translate to “Not praised for its acting”. Birdman’s main praises were directed towards its direction, screenplay and cinematography. Yes, the acting was praised as well, but it was secondary to the aforementioned aspects of the film. Also he does not carry it on his shoulders. Stone and Norton were equally praised as him.

        In contrast, Manchester by the Sea’s main praises is centred around Affleck’s portrayal of Lee, then Lonergan’s direction and screenplay.

  • Reece

    I think when the Globes picks and SAG picks, we will have our clear frontrunner.

  • FM Talks

    I was 100 percent Casey would win until I saw Fences this past weekend. That Denzel won the Tony Award for Best Actor for the same performance is in his favor.

    • michaeldal65

      Have to agree. His first 10 minutes in FENCES is incredible.He delivers, like a machine gun, what sounds like 100 pages of dialogue. And he sustains the character for the next 2 hours brilliantly.

  • Alfred

    Ferdia Walsh-Peelo for the Irish “Sing street” is a great contender as well. As for the New Zealaner film “Dark horse”, it isn’t eligible (a British documentary with the same name is in instead).

  • Terry

    Why am I not seeing Dev Patel’s name on these lists? WHY?

  • Terry

    Sorry, but Dev Patel should be at the top of the list for Best Actor, not Best Supporting Actor!

  • michaeldal65

    You know, the more I peruse this list the more I realise this hasn’t been a very good for year for the guys. Very few really interesting performances. Having finally seen LOVING, I’m surprised Edgerton is sitting just outside the Top 5. He has no “moment” whatsoever. Gosling, flat as a tack, shouldn’t be there, nor Garfield who luckily takes on the role of a hero which so often sees performers through to, at least, the red carpet. Here’s how it should look:
    1. Casey Affleck – no denying he’s locked in and he’s good but is it the masterclass they’re proclaiming?
    2. Adam Driver
    3. Ralph Fiennes – its been declared a supporting performance but it isn’t. From the minute he arrives, he takes over.
    4. Viggo Mortensen
    5. Denzel Washington

    • Adventurer

      Last year had more spread out performances, but Casey gave one of the strongest performance I’ve seen by a male actor in a while. Wish last year the performances were more nuanced and less Oscar bait.

  • Bryce

    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Casey Affleck
    Denzel Washington
    Ryan Gosling
    Tom Hanks

    I would love to see Gosling or Garfield win. And quite honestly, I can see Andrew Garfield being a close second, and after seeing all but Fences, I can definately say Garfield should win, especially fo it being a comeback year for him as well as Gibson. A safe bet will be Affleck, but I am going to go ballsy and say Garfield gets it. Both were great, and both had big impacts, but Garfield does get my prediction as there always needs to be one shocker each year.

  • fa

    Aaron Taylor Johnson is cheating on his wife. He has a Facebook account using the name Hayden Kael Langley. His girlfriend is Yuniya Sofia nowak.

    • AyeAye

      lol

  • Kian

    1. Casey Affleck
    2. Denzel Washington
    3. Andrew Garfield
    4. Ryan Gosling
    5. Joel Edgerton

    There is no way Casey won’t get this one. The 5th spot is where I am quite unsure though, since Mortensen and Hanks are contenders too, but putting my money for Edgerton. Long way overdue nomination!

  • Tee

    Will Win:
    1. Denzel Washington- If there’s an actor who they can rally behind to get into the Triple Oscar club, it’s gonna be Denzel.
    2. Casey Affleck
    3. Andrew Garfield
    4. Viggo Mortensen
    5. Joel Edgerton
    Should Win:
    1. Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool
    2. Denzel Washington for Fences
    3. Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
    4. Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
    5. Logan Lermann for Indignation

    • Adventurer

      It took someone like Meryl Streep forever to join the club. Denzel’s not gonna get it.

      • michaeldal65

        And how long did it take Daniel Day Lewis?

        • Adventurer

          The number of film DDL has done is half the number Denzel has.

    • michaeldal65

      Ryan Reynolds? YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING…

      • Adventurer

        Let them have their dream looooool

  • Alfred

    I believe, the 5 nominations will come out from these 10 actors: Washington, Affleck, Garfield, Mortensen, Edgerton, Gosling, Hanks and three awesome performances that may surprise as all: Parker (forget the scandal, he is AWESOME), Johns (if they want to praise the humanistic gorgeous cinema of Loach) and Driver (if they want to put a Jarmusch inside- shockingly not a single actor from Jarmusch fillms has never been nominated-).

  • AyeAye

    Denzel and Affleck – locked in for nods. I’m 100% sure Affleck’s gonna take the award as well for the same reason as most of the people below have mentioned, the whole movie was carried by him. Even though the screenplay was spectacular his performance made the film. Plus like one of the comment below mentioned, I’m doubtful they’ll give Denzel another Oscar on top of being the 3rd Black winner in the same night (I’m 100% behind Davis and Ali for their own categories as well).

    I’m not comfortable choosing the other 3. None of them have given wow-worthy performances, so it’s more likely a competition of who gets to fill the spot. Garfield, Mortensen, and Edgerton seem like the safe bets, but I’m still not ready to vote off Gosling and Driver. Hanks is not gonna get a nomination, I’m atleast sure of that.

  • sailingsam

    Viggo Mortensen should win for Captain Fantastic.

  • Alfred

    My final prediction nominees: Casey Affleck “Manchester by the Sea“, Denzel Washington “Fences“, Andrew Garfield “Hacksaw Ridge“, Viggo Mortensen “Captain Fantastic“ and (shockingly) Nate Parker “The Birth of a Nation“ (His performance is phenomenal. Although the critics of the film weren’t so favorable -mainly because of the rape scandal- they should judge his performance individually and not be influenced by other aspects). Ryan Gosling with “La La Land” won’t make it because the other performances are superior (Joel Edgerton with “Loving” although stunning won’t make it as well). I do believe in surprises and considering that “Birth of a nation” won’t make it in film, directing, original screenplay or supporting actress (although great in all these categories as well), here is the category that has more possibilities and even if voters don’t like this film they can’t overlook this internal incarnation of the rebellious slave Nat Turner by Nate Parker.

  • DaKardii

    My prediction so far (will update when BAFTA nominations are announced)

    -Denzel Washington for Fences
    -Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
    -Ryan Gosling for La La Land
    -Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea

    The fifth one will be either Joel Edgerton for Loving or Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic.

  • AyeAye

    I find it rather bothersome that you still think Denzel has a chance to win. Critics awards, GG (GG and Oscar ALMOST ALWAYS correlates, something that cannot be said for BAFTA and SAGs), Denzel already winning 2 times before. The statistics is looking awfully bad for him.

    • You can only say that after SAG, which Denzel has never won.

      I dunno where you got the idea the GGs are more reliable than SAG in the Best Actor category, because they aren’t. Roberto Benigni won SAG, so did Sean Penn (Milk), Kevin Spacey (American Beauty). Brody didn’t, but he didn’t win the GG, either.

      • AyeAye

        I was only talking about acting categories as a whole not just Best Actor. Last time Globes winner missed Oscar acting win was like you pointed out Penn for Milk, whereas last time SAG winner missed Oscar was just in 2012 (Supporting Actor).

    • DaKardii

      I see Washington getting nominated, but he’s not my favorite to win (that would be Affleck).

    • Sethcohen26

      Why would you be bothered???

      • AyeAye

        Well, if you followed this article over the many updates it went from “critics don’t vote on televised show” to “let’s see what happens at Globes & SAGs” to “let’s watch SAGs, where Washington hasn’t won anything until now”. There were two main factors ignored here, first was Affleck’s sweeping the major critic shows, second was Washington’s BAFTA snub (which shares some Academy voters). “IF” Affleck wins SAGs, I would not be surprised if the article said “his scandal might prevent him from the win”.

  • jmlatinsir

    This is Affleck’s to lose. I do hope that Mortensen get’s at least a nomination for his Fantastic work.

    • DaKardii

      I agree. In my opinion, though, his closest competitor is Gosling.

      • Adventurer

        Gosling? Stone dominated La La Land. Even Garfield has more chances to win.

        • Jake

          What??? Gosling is amazing in La La Land — the movie works because of him and Stone. He should win best actor

          • Adventurer

            He’s not the main reason why the movie works. He could be replaced with anyone else and it’d still work. Stone’s performance, the screenplay, direction, production design and the editing are why the movie works.

            • Sethcohen26

              That’s so not true. Gosling has a charm that no one else can duplicate.

              • AyeAye

                Critics and many people didn’t seem to agree, since primary praises were aimed at Stone, the screenplay and direction.

  • DaKardii

    UPDATED AND FINAL PREDICTION, NOW THAT BAFTA NOMINATIONS ARE OUT

    Best Actor is locked up.

    -Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
    -Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
    -Ryan Gosling for La La Land
    -Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
    -Denzel Washington for Fences

  • Pokermask

    My predictions for Best Actor at the moment:
    Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
    Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
    Ryan Gosling – La La Land
    Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
    Denzel Washington – Fences

    Top choice: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

  • Zooey Bloom

    You just want Denzel to win for humming it up in Fences. I’ve said that so many times: Some people love the performances, others think he was chewing the scenery in a film that is an artistic failure. Casey is heartbreaking in the film. He nearly swept the critics, he won Critics’ Choice, he won the Globe. You wrote his wins would start with the televised precursors. He lost the Critics’ Choice. You predicted him for the Globe. He lost. Now you changed it to SAG. Not having won a SAG didn’t work for George Clooney in The Descendants. Casey is great in the film and Manchester by the Sea is a film the Academy is expected to love far more than Fences. Denzel’s BAFTA snub won’t help him either.

    • AyeAye

      I fully agree. That’s what ticked me off as well. First the article pointed out Affleck taking critic shows doesn’t matter as critics don’t vote in televised shows. But then Globes won, and the article moved to SAGs (disregarding BAFTA miss for Washington, even though BAFTA don’t agree with Academy often). I’d reckon if Affleck wins at the SAGs, the article is liable to say “Affleck’s scandal might hinder his win and put Washington on the top” or something.

  • Javi

    Denzel already won his “make-up” Oscar for Training Day. They don’t owe him anymore.

  • Alfred

    Don Cheadle for “Miles ahead” although big shot, could be a pleasant surprise.

  • Ben

    I would put Gyllenhaal in the 7th place running, I think with the BAFTA love his chances just rose. In the past actors have seen little love from the Globes and SAG, only popping up in some critics circles (Javier Bardem for ‘Beautiful,’ Emmanuel Rivera for ‘Amour,’) but have received BAFTA nominations and then went on to receive a nomination come Oscar morning. With a sudden surge in love for Nocturnal Animals (9 BAFTA nominations, that surprise Golden Globe win, WGA nominated) Academy members might be watching those screeners more. It’s a long shot but not out of the realm of possibility.

  • Jacques

    Ryan Gosling was great for the character he was portraying, but honestly Stone’s performance far outidid his. I think Gyllenhall is completely underrated ALWAYS. Like what happened in Nightcrawler? He is an underrated actor that at least deserves a nod for his excellence

  • Elijah Warren

    I believe that Andrew Garfield was better in Silence than he was in Hacksaw Ridge. He was great in both but his performance in Silence was truly powerful and heartfelt. I believe if he is nominated for Best Actor, it should be for Silence and not Hacksaw Ridge.

  • Jake

    Ryan Gosling deserves this. He sings, dances and plays the piano. If people love La La Land – they must love him in it and this film should sweep like Silence of the lambs!

  • Alfred

    After PGA, DGA and Bafta here are my predictions considering all the 336 eligible films and not only the front-runners (in order):
    1. Casey Affleck “Manchester by the sea”
    2. Denzel Washington “Fences”
    3. Andrew Garfield “Hacksaw Ridge”
    4. Viggo Mortensen “Captain Fantastic”
    5. Nate Parker “Birth of a nation” (surprise underdog)
    *Still in big fight:
    6. Ryan Gosling “La La Land”
    7. Joel Edgerton “Loving”
    8. Tom Hanks “Sully”
    9. Dave Johns “I, Daniel Blake” (surprise underdog)
    10. Adam Driver “Paterson” (surprise underdog)
    11. Jake Gyllenhaal “Nocturnal Animals”
    12. Don Cheadle “Miles Ahead” (surprise underdog)

  • Mangesh Gaikwad

    # Actor ::
    1.Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

    2.Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    3.Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    4.Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    &
    5.Denzel Washington (Fences) /
    Joel Edgerton (Loving) /
    Adam Driver (Paterson) .

  • Tee

    1. Denzel Washington
    2. Casey Affleck
    3. Andrew Garfield
    4. Ryan Gosling
    5. Joel Edgerton

    Viggo Mortensen not making a Best Actor five would be heartbreaking, but at the same time it seems like such a strange choice when there’s more conventional choices.

  • Alfred

    I keep on writing here. The New Zealander of 2014 Dark Horse isn’t eligible. It is another British documentary of the same name. Check out the eligible films.