UPDATED – FEBRUARY 23, 2017 – FINAL PREDICTIONS – In the end, the conventional five that were bubbling around for weeks makes the cut.  DGA has chosen Damien Chazelle, making his path all the more clearer.

ENTER OUR OSCARS CONTEST via our CIRCUIT CENTER HERE!

AND THE NOMINEES ARE

  1. Damien Chazelle – “La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight
  3. Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival
  4. Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea
  5. Mel Gibson – “Hacksaw Ridge

MISSED THE CUT

OTHER TOP-TIER MISSES

ALSO MISSED

OTHER MISSES

UNRANKED CONTENDERS

  • Woody Allen – “Cafe Society
  • Pedro Almodovar – “Julieta
  • Antonio Campos – “Christine”
  • Derek Cianfrance – “The Light Between Oceans
  • Robert Eggers – “The Witch
  • Sean Ellis – “Anthropoid”
  • David Frankel – “Collateral Beauty”
  • Taylor Hackford – “The Comedian”
  • John Lee Hancock – “The Founder”
  • Chad Hartigan – “Morris from America
  • Gavin Hood – “Eye in the Sky
  • Mick Jackson – “Denial”
  • John Krasinski – “The Hollars
  • Pablo Larraín – “Neruda
  • Ewan McGregor – “American Pastoral”
  • Mike Mitchell, Walt Dohrn – “Trolls
  • Jocelyn Moorhouse – “The Dressmaker”
  • Jeff Nichols – “Midnight Special
  • Kelly Reichardt – “Certain Women
  • Jeremy Saulnier – “Green Room
  • Daniel Scheinert, Daniel Kwan – “Swiss Army Man”
  • Trey Edward Shults – “Krisha
  • Oliver Stone – “Snowden” 
  • Tate Taylor – “The Girl on the Train

**=could be pushed back to 2017

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  • Dan Hogan

    I think you might be wise to lay off of Nolan for now. You’re a fool for predicting Burton however, especially this early. He might surprise, but he’s been on a major losing streak and I don’t expect that to let up while his film is still sight unseen.

  • Loody

    I would put Linklater in the top spot for BOYHOOD. Yes, while most of his films are smaller, he is still almost universally respected, has been doing some truly great work of late, and BOYHOOD is suppose to be his Magnus Opus. On top of that what he has accomplished with this film – making it for 12 years – is quite simply astonishing. I can see him being rewarded.

  • Connor

    41.) James Rolfe, Angry Video Game Nerd: The Movie

    IT COULD HAPPEN!!!

  • well that’s a stretch considering he won the Golden Globe. Do you bet on horses too?

  • How are you predicting an animated film to take Best Picture and have the director only at 20?

  • let’s not forget the super secret Oscar chance with A Hundred Streets Starring Idris Elba and Directed by Jim O’Hanlon

  • Luke McGowan

    If Fences swept the Big Five, Denzel would have five Oscars in five categories. Can anyone claim that much?

  • How was Midnight Special not well received? 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and 76% on Metacritic ain’t bad at all.

    • Marwin 1994

      We should not fully trust the ratings from Rotten Tomatoes.

      • Hence also referring to Metacritic–which aggregates scores. Also, The Cobbler was an absolute disaster. Midnight Special is, at very worst, middling.

        • Marwin 1994

          Some movies are just overrated and some great movies are getting underrated.

          • Luke McGowan

            That doesn’t justify calling it “not well received”. Holden has correctly pointed out that Clayton really hasn’t substantiated that claim. I haven’t heard a whole lot of hate for it.

    • Perhaps he was referring to general audiences, who by and large shrugged it off?

  • Marwin 1994

    Mark Osborne for The Little Prince

  • Randolph Collar

    where is mel Gibson for his upcoming movie hacksaw ridge ?

    • Brooke

      With all of the Jewish people in the Academy??? Gibson will never see a nomination again.

  • Luke McGowan

    1. Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    2. Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk)
    3. Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation)
    4. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    5. Jeff Nicholls (Loving)

    6. Denzel Washington (Fences)
    7. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    8. John Maden (Miss Sloane)
    9. Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
    10. Denis Villenueve (Arrival)
    11. Kenneth Longergan (Manchester By the Sea)
    12. John Lee Hancock (The Founder)
    13. Stephen Gaghan (Gold)
    14. Derek Cianfrance (The Light Between Oceans)
    15. Terry George (The Promise)

  • Tee

    1. Martin Scorsese
    2. Ang Lee
    3. Nate Parker
    4. Ewan McGregor
    5. Denzel Washington

    6. Damian Chazelle
    7. Garth Davis
    8. Jeff Nichols
    9. Kenneth Longergan
    10. Clint Eastwood

  • Luke McGowan

    Oh boy, if Silence gets pushed I think its giong to be a bloodbath for the frontrunner spot in Picture/Director/Editing/Supporting Actor

    • Sakata (Diego)

      I agree with that. I think it will be a hard competition in these categories.
      (Note: I’m brazillian and I don’t know write english very well).

    • Alec Glass

      I feel like La La Land and Billy Lynn (depending on how the film lands) would probs duke it out in the first 3, but hooly christ yeah supporting actor would get fierce. Personally I’d be rooting for Mahershala Ali

  • Luke McGowan

    If Denzel or Ang Lee wins, it will have been five years since the last white male Best Director. It will have been nine years since the last Amerian Best Director winner.

  • Chuck

    I mean Denzel is an American…felt like you were adding a year to that “drought” were Denzel to reign. Also Bigelow is an American from 7 years back.

    • Alec Glass

      if this is re:Luke, the claim was that it was a WHITE american male director …. which Denzel most definitely is not

      • Luke McGowan

        Thanks Alec, but I did edit my comment because I’d made an omission, Chuck’s comment was legitimate criticism at the time

  • Joseph Dutra

    Mel Gibson deserves to be more up there, Hacksaw Ridge got a great reception(including a 10 minute standing ovation) at the Venice Film Festival.

  • Luke McGowan

    I think Chazelle is the closest we have to a lock. Scorsese and Lee will be name checks provided the movie isn’t terrible. I really think Jeff Nicholls is getting in. Denzel in director? Possible, but the directing would really have to be a thing, rather than residual love for Fences as a whole. Lonergan and Tom Ford are my 4-5 if he’s out, and my 5-6 if Denzel is in.

  • Luke McGowan

    Let’s be moving Affleck up now!

  • Nihal Bhat

    billy lynn? lol

  • Nihal Bhat

    affleck should be in the top 10.

  • Kian

    Best Director
    (Updated: November 03, 2016)

    If “La La Land” will win Best Picture, I predict it’s 1998 all over again. Remember when Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan however didn’t win Best Picture. I believe Scorsese is this year’s Spielberg.
    La La Land deserves to win though, i’m just throwing shade on who they chose Best Picture back in 1998.

    1. Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
    2. Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
    3. Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea”
    4. Denis Villenueve – “Arrival”
    5. Pablo Larrain – “Jackie”

  • Jonathan

    If “Silence” is amazing, which it probably will be, i’d be shocked to see Scorsese miss, as it’s been his passion project for 22 years and the Academy love his Oscar-y films (mostly all of them). Scorsese only missed once for Directing when the film itself got nominated for Picture (“Taxi Driver”), when he was first starting out.

    • John Cleaver

      Your claim that Scorsese lost the Oscar for Directing for Taxi Driver is true. But you neglected the fact the Scorsese was also nominated for the Oscar for Best Director for Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, Goodfellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, Hugo, and The Wolf of Wall Street.

      • You didn’t understand his point.

        He said that the only time a Scorsese film was nominated for Best Picture but Scorsese himself was NOT nominated for Best Director was for Taxi Driver.

  • Demetra

    Here’s what’s actually gonna happen:

    1. Damien Chazelle- La La Land
    2. Denzel Washington- Fences
    3. Martin Scorsese- Silence
    4. Denis Villenueve- Arrival
    5. Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea

  • Irene

    Why doesn’t anyone consider Gibson to this race? He did fantastic things in Hackshaw Ridge

  • Reece

    I agree with top 5, but Denzel as 3rd or 4th. Barry Jenkins is sweeping the precursors so far, but Damien Chazelle is still my #1, Jenkins is 2nd

  • disqus_mVKPCZqOR5

    Can you explain your thinking behind Tom Ford at 20? Especially with people like Peter Berg for Patriots Day and Morten Tyldum for Passengers ahead of him?

  • Tee

    1. Barry Jenkins
    2. Martin Scorsese
    3. Damien Chazelle
    4. Denis Villuneuve
    5. Mel Gibson

  • Lakeshow

    Curious to why Ford is that low despite getting a globe nom for director.

    • Teriek Williams

      The Globes don’t count for much (Aaron Taylor-Johnson was nominated for Nocturnal Animals, which was a “what the hell” moment). Plus, Nocturnal Animals is a tough film for some (I loved it) and given the performance of Nocturnal Animals thus far during the award season, its sensible to doubt the Academy will go for him. However, if he’s nominated for the DGA or the BAFTA, then I would figure him higher on the list.

      • Adventurer

        Globes has history of complementing acting Academy wins though (the last miss was back in 2008 with Penn for Milk), so they do count for much when predicting Academy wins. But for Director and Best Picture, I agree. Globes and Academy aren’t agreeable often.

        • Teriek Williams

          The Globes and Oscar race for acting are not comparable setups in that the Globe has two categories for acting contributing to situations where 2 frontrunners can win (like Jamie Foxx & Leonardo DiCaprio in 2004, Annette Bening & Hillary Swank in 2004, Felicity Huffman & Reese Witherspoon in 2005, Meryl Streep & Sandra Bullock in 2009, Natalie Portman & Annette Bening in 2010, Jessica Chastain & Jennifer Lawrence in 2012, Cate Blanchett & Amy Adams in 2013, Michael Keaton & Eddie Redmayne in 2014).

          The SAGs are the best predictor, having debuted in 1994, putting it more in line modern trends, and having a membership that overlaps with the Academy. In 23 ceremonies, they’ve only disagreed 3 times for Best Actor and 6 times or Best Actress. One of those times for actor, they did agree with Del Toro winning, just in a different category.

          And in reference to the original subject of Nocturnal Animals, the Globes awarded Aaron Taylor-Johnson who has only been nominated for 3 awards total (including Globe) for that role. It seems they liked the film more than other organizations, which in Globe fashion doesn’t cement the race in any way. However, Tom Ford’s nomination for Best Director & Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTA do make him a serious player.

          • Adventurer

            Yet, majority of the time either of Globes winners have gone onto win at the Academy. Also one could blame the higher amount of Globes miss (acting categories) on the fact that it is in its 72nd year.

            I do know SAGs is the best predictor, but I’m saying I would not discounted Globes when it comes to acting wins.

            And I did say that as well. Globes Director and Picture nominations doesn’t cement Academy race at all, since they miss out more often than not in those categories.

            • Teriek Williams

              With the leading acting categories, the Globes have twice the chance to get it right. In all the acting categories, the winners tend to be locks from the beginning. For that reason, I don’t use the Globes as a driving barometer for prediction. Most of the time, they’re usually following the direction the wind is already blowing. My prediction for Casey Affleck winning isn’t driven by his Globe win. He’s likely going to win because that’s the way things were going before the Globes and they’re just following what consensus has has shown thus far.

              So altogether, my position is the Globes help a narrative, but they don’t drive it. If someone wins a Globe, its a plus in their column but it isn’t the determining factor even if they do win. Put it this way: if an actor wins a Golden Globe, it doesn’t dramatically change the fundamentals off the race. It just helps the actor in their campaign. However, if someone asked me why I thought an actor was going to win, I’d never reply, “Because the won the Golden Globe.”

              • Adventurer

                But majority of the time the front runners fall under the same category, so they don’t get twice the chance to get it right. Just look at the frontrunners in the Best Actor category from the past few years. Even this year, all the frontrunners except Gosling are under Drama.

                • Teriek Williams

                  Let’s look at it.
                  2014: Keaton & Redmayne win Globe – Redmayne wins Oscar
                  2013: Adams & Blanchett win Globe – Blanchett wins Oscar
                  2012: Chastain & Lawrence win Globe – Lawrence wins Oscar
                  2011: Clooney & Dujardin win Globe – Dujardin wins Oscar
                  2010: Portman & Bening win Globe – Portman wins Oscar
                  2009: Streep & Bullock win Globe – Bullock wins Oscar
                  2007: Cotillard & Christie win Globe – Cotillard wins Oscar
                  2006: Streep & Mirren win Globe – Mirren wins Oscar
                  2005: Huffman & Witherspoon win Globe – Witherspoon wins Oscar
                  2004: Foxx, DiCaprio, Bening & Swank win Globe – Foxx & Swank win Oscar
                  2003: Murray & Penn win Globe – Penn wins Oscar
                  2002: Zellweger & Kidman win Globe – Kidman wins Oscar

                  So usually there is a least one leading category for the Globes to split wins for two frontrunners. In the cases where the frontrunners are both in the drama, the Globes routinely pick the person who had the heat going into the race (Affleck, Day-Lewis, Waltz, DiCaprio, Larson, etc.), which did not fundamentally change anything, which is why no one cements their predictions after the Golden Globes.

                  This year, Affleck won for aforementioned reasons as did Viola Davis for the same reason. In actress, they picked one frontrunner Emma Stone while picking a wild card Isabelle Huppert. In supporting, they also picked a wild card (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) but many of us were scratching our heads until the BAFTA nominated him in conjunction with the Globe win. The BAFTA changed the race in regard to Taylor-Johnson, not the Globes. However, are Huppert and Taylor-Johnson likely Oscar winners? Most of us point to the SAG and BAFTA to make a better judgment on that.

                  Last year, DiCapro & Larson were unbeatable, sweeping all 4 major awards. They didn’t predict the Oscar winner in supporting. For one, the “#OscarSoWhite” controversy created goodwill for Idris Elba to win the SAG while the Globes went with the popular Stallone. The BAFTAs ended up picking Mark Rylance who won the Oscar. Since Alicia Vikander was switched to lead for The Danish Girl at the Globes, Kate Winslet snuck in the win but lost to Vikander at the Oscars.

                  So again, the Globes help a narrative for prediction but have never been lead my inclinations on any level. I tend to pay far more attention to who wins the SAG and BAFTA. A Globe win will brings more credibility for prediction but its never been one to lead with. You may argue that the Globes seem right after the fact, but predictions are before the fact and the Globes have never solidified any before the fact. The SAG and BAFTA tell the tale before the fact that the Globes can gain some credit with after the fact.

                  • Adventurer

                    I understand what you are trying to say. And I disagree about you on BAFTA, very often they come up with the most WTF nominations and wins (look at the 2014 ceremony, or this year with Blunt, Gyllenhaal etc.). It’s more like critic shows shapes the heat, Globes propels the choices more and SAGs confirms it.

                    • Teriek Williams

                      The BAFTA nominations aren’t WTF to Brits. For instance, I Daniel Blake is a crazy nomination to an American but its director Ken Loach is a British filmmaking legend. Emily Blunt was nominated for the SAG, and is now a possible player with a BAFTA & SAG nomination. Also, the BAFTA’s win for Mark Rylance translated to an Oscar last year. In fact, many of the Oscar wins were reflected by the BAFTA wins (not all). The BAFTA also has far more overlap with the Oscar membership unlike the Hollywood Foreign Press which is 80 journalists.

                      Jake Gyllenhaal is kinda out of the blue, but so was Aaron Taylor-Johnson. In fact, Gyllenhaal got more Best Actor nominations in the critics association award season than Taylor-Johnson. Furthermore, the Globes rarely propel choices. They reflect what was happening during the critics association awards. The Guilds propel choices. The Globes are largely followers, seeking to be popular. They don’t define the race nor do they change it most of the time. Nobody ever says after the Globes, “This person will win or be nominated.” If they do say that, its because the Globes are merely reflecting the consensus that was established beforehand (i.e.: Affleck, Davis, DiCaprio, Larson).

                    • Teriek Williams

                      Some BAFTA choices are odd without investigation. I Daniel Blake’s BAFTA nominations are crazy to Americans but not to a Brit. Emily Blunt isn’t a crazy BAFTA choice because she was first nominated for the SAG. She’s a possible player with the BAFTA nomination added to it. The BAFTA’s predicted Mark Rylance’s Oscar win when the SAG & Globes split making the race hard to predict. But again, the BAFTA membership overlaps with the Oscar membership unlike the Hollywood Foreign Press’ 80 journalists.

                      Jake Gyllenhaal got more critics association award nominations than Aaron Taylor-Johnson did or even Globe nominee Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane). Gyllenhaal was always a contender, just a long-shot one. The narrative on Golden Derby is, “Will Jake Gyllenhaal get a nomination to make up for his Nightcrawler snub.”

                      Furthermore, the Globes rarely “propel” choices. The Critics Choice Awards and the regional critics association propel choices. The Globes largely follow their consensus, prompting the start of the major race. The Guilds show who the real players are. The BAFTAs confound narratives for films & nominees. When in doubt, they can be the stabilizing force (i.e.: Rylance, Blunt & Taylor-Johnson’s nominations). But nobody says after the Globes, “This person will win the Oscar.” Nobody is saying Isabelle Huppert will certainly win the Oscar or even be nominated. Both are still in doubt. The SAGs are where to see who the possible winner will be and the BAFTA will can confound the case.

                      P.S.: The Oscars have their own crazy choices: William Hurt (2005), Michael Shannon (2008) and Laura Dern (2014). None were nominated for the BAFTA, Globe or SAG.

  • Larry Tate

    Tim Miller

  • Tee

    I think pulling Jenkins is a bad idea as the frontrunner; when they do split Picture/Director, it’s always the traditional pic and the director of the “different” film. See Shakespeare in Love/Steven Spielberg, Crash/Ang Lee, Argo/Ang Lee (again),Gladiator/Steven Soderburgh, and 12 Years A Slave/Alfonso Cuaron. If there’s going to be a split it looks like Manchester/Jenkins is the way to pick it.

  • Joshua Black

    Also think watch out for interesting directors like Ford or Larrain

  • Iso Ns

    I totally I agree about picture, especially after SAG. I can see either Manchester to win over La La Land. However, I think that Lonergan has a very slim chance to win Best Director over Chazelle. For my money the only guy who can upset Chazelle is Scorcese, even though some pundits they don’t predict Silence a player in the big categories at all.

  • Alfred

    John Carney of the “Sing street” is also a good contender. This film put out so many American films in the Golden Globe comedy/musical category and therefore should be in a strong consideration.

    • Tee

      A nomination from the Globes doesn’t necessarily translate to Oscar, especially in the comedy/musical category. As much as I want it to be, Sing Street has only been nominated at Globes in terms of major awards bodies. Board of Review placed it in Independent, while Critics Choice only acknowledged the songs.

      • Alfred

        I do agree but in a list of top 40 directors and even with Deep Horizon in, I think that Sing Street is a possible choice.

    • Bryce

      Sing Street is actually my favorite film of the year and I am disappointed it won’t be in any consideration. I liked it better than La La Land and I loved that film. It is such a shame.

  • Bryce

    Barry Jenkins
    Damian Chazelle
    Dennis Villeneuve
    Kenneth Lonergan
    Mel Gibson

    As much as I would love a Mel Gibson come back or John Carney of Sing Street in consideration, it is going to be Damian Chazelle. I think La La Land will win best picture and Damian Chazelle will get his well-deserved glory with his Best Director award. Also want to point out that Scorsese may be in there if the academy decides to snub Villeneuve again. He should have been nominated for both Prisoners and Sicario, and both should have been nominated for best picture as well.

  • Kian

    1. Damien Chazelle
    2. Barry Jenkins
    3. Kenneth Lonergan
    4. Martin Scorsese
    5. Mel Gibson

    As much as I love Denis Villenueve, I still think Sicario and Prisoners are his best and deserved the nomination. Gibson’s nod could easily be the “talk” this year, but his fate is still shaky though. Villenueve or Mackenzie could easily take his spot.

  • Alfred

    I believe, 5 of these 14 directors are gonna be nominated: Lonergan, Chazelle, Jenkins, Scorsese, Gibson, Villeneuve, Washington, Eastwood, Ford, Mackenzie, Larrain, Parker (get over the controversy about a so called scandal, as a director he did a marvelous work) and at last but not least 2 big dark horses that may pull pleasant surprises: Loach and Jarmusch. This category many times nominated auteurs that were overlooked in the past (Kieslowski, Meirelles, Almodovar, Egoyan, Kurosawa, Fellini, Bergman, Mike Leigh etc) whereas they didn’t dominate the critics circle of their year’s (mainly because they aren’t Hollywood studio academic films). This category many times want to praise milestones of world cinema and I believe this year is gonna be such and mainly with a golden palm masterpiece of Loach and a poetic film of Jarmush (I know it’s not like his others but he deserves to be nominated compared to all the other eligible films of this year).

  • Alfred

    My final prediction nominees: Damien Chazelle “La La Land“, Barry Jenkins “Moonlight“, Kenneth Lonergan “Manchester by the Sea“ and two auteurs that are gonna shock as all (because I believe in pleasant surprises from nowhere): Ken Loach “I, Daniel Blake” and Jim Jarmusch “Paterson”. This category many times in the past praised milestones of world cinema even if critics awards overlooked their films Academy couldn’t put out their marvelous directings. This is such a year! Ken Loach with his masterpiece and Jim Jarmusch (with not his best but still beautiful film) deserves it so much. Denis Villeneuve “Arrival”, Denzel Washington “Fences”, Martin Scorsese “Silence” and Mel Gibson “Hacksaw Ridge” although front-runners have many possibilities to be left in the ice.

  • DaKardii

    My prediction so far (will be updated when BAFTA nominations are announced)

    -Damien Chazelle for La La Land
    -Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
    -Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
    -Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea

    The fifth one will come from the following list: Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water, Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, and Denzel Washington for Fences.

    • Serge

      I think Gibson will be nominated for an Oscar, but the BAFTAs won’t nominate him. They aren’t particularly fond of Mel. Mel’s an American-Australian-Irish who was the star and director of Braveheart.

      • DaKardii

        You were right. He wasn’t nominated for a BAFTA. However, now I no longer think he’s guaranteed to be nominated for an Oscar either, because he’s fallen behind. His main competition will be Villeneuve, Ford, and Jenkins (Mackenzie and Washington are done, IMHO; they needed a BAFTA nomination to stay in the race). Only Chazelle and Lonergan are locked in based on the new information I have.

        • Serge

          PGA just nominated Hacksaw Ridge. Noctural Animals wasn’t even nominated. The BAFTAs have no relevance as far as the Oscars go. The Globes, the Critics Choice, the PGA and the DGA have a better track record. Hacksaw was nominated for 5 BAFTAs and the fact that they left out Best Picture and Best Director is funny, but once again, it’s Mel and they’re not fond of him there. I think it’s going to be Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, Gibson and Villenueve. I think the last one could go to either Scorsese and Villenueve.

          • DaKardii

            PGA is for producers (those who receive the award for Best Picture) only, so Nocturnal Animals not being nominated for that particular ceremony will have little to no effect on what happens to Tom Ford’s Best Director chances. That being said, PGA nominating Hacksaw Ridge and not Nocturnal Animals is consistent with my Best Picture prediction.

            As for the other directors you listed, I believe Chazelle and Lonergan definitely will be nominated. Jenkins, Gibson, and Villenueve all have a shot (out of the four directors I have for wild cards mentioned in my previous comment, I consider Ford to be the weakest, so if I absolutely had to set up a ranking, Ford’s gonna be snubbed). Scorsese I think is gonna be snubbed. If he’s not nominated for GG, BAFTA, SGA, or CC, I seriously doubt he will be nominated for an Oscar.

            • Serge

              I know it’s for producers but it’s a good precursor for Best Picture at the Oscars. The list includes some who have no chance at a Best Director nomination. That’s why I’m saying that Gibson is close to a sure thing. Hacksaw Ridge has been on every BP list from the AFI to the National Board of Review, to the Critics to the Globes and now the PGA. The only one is the BAFTA and they went with weird choices. Noctural Animals and I Daniel Blake, which have no chance to get anything in the US. They didn’t even nominate Jenkins. The only way I see the Academy not nominating him is if they haven’t forgiven him, but I know he has a lot of supporters in the industry. Honestly to me, he’s the best director of the year followed by Chazelle. The battle scenes were incredibly well shot and the second hour was beautiful.

              • DaKardii

                I agree wholeheartedly about Gibson. As for the other two films, I think “I, Daniel Blake” may be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and possibly, in a wild card scenario, for Best Picture. But no acting categories. For Nocturnal Animals, I can see it being nominated for Best Director in a wild card scenario, I can easily picture AJT being nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and I think it has a real chance of actually winning Best Adapted Screenplay, especially if Moonlight decides to commit category fraud and go Original, like it has at several ceremonies already.

  • jmlatinsir

    I think Hacksaw Ridge is Gibson’s comeback-into-the-fold-Hollywood-film. I think that MacKenzie and Washington may have better chances in landing on the top five.

    • DaKardii

      I see Gibson as a wild card, and MacKenzie and Washington as dark horses, to be honest.

      • Adventurer

        Fences didn’t have a spectacular direction and received no praise on that front either. It’s not gonna happen.

  • DaKardii

    UPDATED AND FINAL PREDICTION, NOW THAT BAFTA NOMINATIONS ARE OUT

    -Damien Chazelle for La La Land
    -Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea

    The other three are going to come from the following list: Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, and Barry Jenkins for Moonlight.

    • Jonathan

      If Ford gets in it will be a lone director nod just like the Globes and BAFTAs.

  • Pokermask

    My predictions for Best Director at the moment:
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals
    Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
    Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
    Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

    Top choice: Damien Chazelle – La La Land

  • Tee

    1. Damien Chazelle
    2. Barry Jenkins
    3. Denis Villeneuve
    4. Martin Scorsese
    5. Kenneth Lonergan

  • Jacques

    If Villeneuve doesn’t get the nom I will be LIVID

  • Elijah Warren

    My predictions for Best Director at the moment:

    1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
    3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
    4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
    5. Denis Vileneuve – Arrival

    I think after watching all of the top films and Oscar contenders out there, I think that these five did the best job of directing this past year. If there was a long shot or a next up for me it would be Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals and David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water. I love what the two of them did with their films but the aforementioned 5 I feel did a better job. I also do not see it for Mel Gibson. Hacksaw Ridge was a decent film and Garfield was great in the film but it seemed to be a film at odds with itself. Good film but not better than the the top 5 I have and the 2 dark horses but that is just me.

  • Alfred

    After PGA, DGA and Bafta here are my predictions considering all the 336 eligible films and not only the front-runners (in order):
    1. Barry Jenkins “Moonlight”
    2. Damien Chazelle “La La Land”
    3. Kenneth Lonergan “Manchester by the sea”
    4. Ken Loach “I, Daniel Blake” (surprise underdog)
    5. Jim Jarmusch “Paterson (surprise underdog)
    *Also in big fight:
    6. Denis Villeneuve “Arrival”
    7. Denzel Washington “Fences”
    8. Martin Scorseze “Silence”
    9. Mel Gibson “Hacksaw Ridge”
    10. Tom Ford “Nocturnal Animals”
    11. Nate Parker “Birth of a nation” (surprise underdog)
    12. Garth Davis “Lion”
    13. Pablo Larrain “Jackie”
    14. David Mackenzie “Hell or High water”
    15. Clint Eastwood “Sully”

  • Mangesh Gaikwad

    # Director ::
    1.Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

    2.Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    3.Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    4.Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
    &
    5.Martin Scorsese (Silence) /
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge) /
    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)

  • Tee

    1. Barry Jenkins
    2. Damien Chazelle
    3. Kenneth Lonergan
    4. Denis Villeneuve
    5. Garth Davis

  • 22cinema11

    My predictions:

    1. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    2. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    3. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    4. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
    5. David Mackenzie (Hell Or High Water)

    #1 to #4 are relatively safe bets, especially with the DGA nods under their belts (well: “relatively” safe bets – Ridley Scott was a safe bet last year as well …) – and no matter who takes spot #5, it’ll be a surprise. A nod for Scorsese without major guilds support for “Silence” is very unlikely I think (although still possible), and I’m not sure whether Mel Gibson’s “forgiveness tour” has completely worked out. So I expect someone else to get in – and the Academy often rewards less-known directors of “smaller” films (take Benh Zeitlin or Lenny Abrahamson) – that could be David Mackenzie, Garth Davis (if the Academy embraces that kind of tear-jerking movie as expected) or Pablo Larrain (but with “Jackie” practically out of the race for BP, that seems unlikely) this year. Another possibility would be Tom Ford (with “Nocturnal Animals” getting lots of well-deserved late buzz including the Globes win for ATJ and director nods for Ford at the Globes and BAFTAs). I’ll go with David Mackenzie as a surprise upset for #5.

  • Fabio González

    Chazelle and Jenkins are no-brainers, and one of them will win (most likely Chazelle) but I’m really really glad Villeneuve could finally get nominated! And that Scorsese might get nominated as well, for he has been trying to make Silence for years.

  • DaKardii

    I got all five right. I knew Chazelle and Lonergan would be nominated. The other three were wild cards between Ford, Gibson, Jenkins, and Villeneuve, with Ford being the one I believed would be snubbed.

  • DaKardii

    MY PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR WINNER

    This is Damien Chazelle’s to lose. If any of the others win I’ll be shocked.

  • Adventurer

    Chazelle taking DGA was a big moment. So I’ll bet on him. I personally want either Lonergan or Villeneuve to win.

    • life is a state of mind

      Yes PT Anderson is definitely overdue – so is Chris Nolan. Three great ones who went to their graves having never won competitive Oscars for directing are Kubrick, Altman and Hitchcock. Let’s hope Anderson and Nolan don’t join them. Damien Chazelle has been Hollywood’s golden boy (pun intended) since Whiplash and he’s a lock for La La Land. It sure would be great to see Barry Jenkins win, however.

      • Adventurer

        I don’t even pay attention to greats (whether director or actor) who went to their graves without an Oscar as it just makes me mad.

        • life is a state of mind

          Makes me mad, too. I’m with you on PT Anderson.

          • Adventurer

            If PTA doesn’t win next year, whether director or screenplay, then I’m gonna book a ticket to whichever countries the AMPAS voters live in and hunt them all down. lol The Master getting snubbed made me livid. The film was tremendously good. There Will be Blood getting snubbed was the snub of the century.

            • life is a state of mind

              The biggest PTA snub to me was Magnolia in 1999. It was robbed by American Beauty and Sam Mendes. I liked American Beauty, but Magnolia is a masterpiece! (Oh, pick me up along the way when you go hunting for Oscar voters next year!)LOL

              • Adventurer

                YES! Magnolia was a HUGE snub. American Beauty was a performance driven movie. The movie itself was far from being as good as Magnolia. It’s an absolute farce that Academy has failed to reward PTA for anything.

                Alright, I will LOL Stock up on some weapons till then xD

  • Derrick

    Looks like Damien Chazelle could win but Barry Jenkins is a DARKHORSE!
    I’m thinking there will be surprise winners come Oscars night!