SUPPORTING ACTRESS
COMMENTARY:
Octavia Spencer has nabbed Critics Choice, Globe, and SAG Awards and has jumped in front of the pack. Berenice Bejo can still surprise especially if “The Artist” has as much love as we think it does. A sweep could be in order. If the Academy is feeling daring, Melissa McCarthy could pull a Marisa Tomei move on win for her scene stealing work in “Bridesmaids.” The film also has the writing mention to boost McCarthy. McTeer means nothing here and won’t cause any ruckus. Jessica Chastain would be considered more of a threat if she was nominated for “The Tree of Life” but any votes she receives will bounce off of Spencer.
POSITION |
AND THE NOMINATED LADIES ARE… |
| 1 | Octavia Spencer for “The Help” |
| 2 | Berenice Bejo for “The Artist” |
| 3 | Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids” |
| 4 | Jessica Chastain for “The Help” |
| 5 | Janet McTeer for “Albert Nobbs” |
AND THE FINAL PREDICTIONS WERE…
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Octavia Spencer- |
Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Janet McTeer- |
Melissa McCarthy- |
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FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
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AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER:: |
AGAINST HER: |
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THE NEXT FIVE |
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Shailene Woodley- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Vanessa Redgrave- |
Carey Mulligan-- |
Carey Mulligan-- |
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FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
FOR HER: |
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AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
AGAINST HER: |
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ALSO IN CONTENTION |
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Jodie Foster- |
Anjelica Huston- |
Bryce Dallas Howard- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Sandra Bullock- |
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Kate Winslet- |
Judy Greer- |
Marion Cotillard- |
Judi Dench- |
Melanie Laurent- |
TRACKER |
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JANUARY 22, 2012 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Melissa McCarthy- |
Janet McTeer- |
Octavia Spencer- |
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DECEMBER 15, 2011 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Melissa McCarthy- |
Janet McTeer- |
Octavia Spencer- |
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NOVEMBER 20, 2011 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Vanessa Redgrave- |
Octavia Spencer- |
Shailene Woodley- |
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OCTOBER 28, 2011 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Vanessa Redgrave- |
Octavia Spencer- |
Shailene Woodley- |
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OCTOBER 1, 2011 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Melissa McCarthy- |
Vanessa Redgrave- |
Octavia Spencer- |
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SEPTEMBER 11, 2011 |
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Berenice Bejo- |
Sandra Bullock- |
Jessica Chastain- |
Vanessa Redgrave-- |
Octavia Spencer- |
32 Comments
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My current guesses:
Jessica Chastain -The Tree of Life
Carey Mulligan – Shame *WINNER*
Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
Well, Clayton… You really are ballsy. Nominating Melissa McCarthy and placing Berenice Bejo as the current frontrunner… It almost seems too ballsy for me (yes, Joey, I know everyone´s entitled to their own opinion and to each their own), but I really think this would be almost too exotic for the Academy. That said, it would definitely be exciting. I´ve seen “The Artist” and it´s absolutely fantastic – It will probably remain my favourite film of the year. Bejo would be 100% deserving of this recognition… But over Redgrave? Hum… I´m not sure the Academy would be ready to recognize Bejo over her. Octavia Spencer is definitely in the running.
Let’s just put it this way, it won’t happen. Even if the Academy embraces the film like The Lord Of Rings her win won’t happen. The American/English field here is too strong and too “powerful”. Forget about Spencer, people are already forgetting about the movie besides Davis. Davis should be put here together with Knightley. McCarthy is also going to have an uphill battle getting that nomination. But she won the Emmys, her odds are better than Evan Rachel Wood. Redgrave is the clear front runner so far. People that have seen the film are singing the praises she needed to get noticed. Chastain is getting a nomination somewhere ahahaha. Based on history, Clooney does wonders for his costars, from Twilight to Oscar nomination let’s just put it at that. Woodley has a very strong campaign going and so does Bullock now that people have seen the trailer. I say bring down Bejo, bring down Spencer, and bump Bullock and Woodley and keep McCarthy for the ballsy effect “for now” because that is how ballsy you can get with the Academy.
Mike and Mollly a show nobody watches?? Did u check its ratings. II’s A18-49 are great
Mine in order of nomination likelihood (not win)
1. Octavia Spencer – I don’t think people are forgetting about the film and a lot of people really loved this performance. I think she’s in.
2. Shailene Woodley – Unknown or not, she looks solid for a nod. Holds her own against a career-best Clooney and in a leading Best Picture nominee.
3. Sandra Bullock – Trailers can fool us, but she looks to have an emotional role in what could also be a leading contender. They’ll be looking to justify her win with another nomination.
4. Carey Mulligan – Gets really tough from here for me. I think either they both get in or Shame gets absolutely nothing.
5. Jessica Chastain (The Help) – I have a feeling she won’t get anything but I’d go with The Help if anything. Pitt and McCracken completely outshone her in TTOL IMO, and with Davis probably going lead The Help could still get two noms here.
Next in line- Bejo, Redgrave, McTeer, Chastain, Wood, McCarthy.
no opinion. though I would love to see Redgrave in the running.
Having seen the Help, I think Octavia Spenser is going to the one to beat, but also Jessicca Chastain and Bryce Dallas Howard. Howard has the hardest role in this movie and she pulls it off with a tour de force. I hope she gets in as well.
I’m very curious to see how Julia Ormand does playing Vivien Leigh in “My Week With Marilyn”…
My picks: Carey Mulligan for Shame, Berenice Bejo for The Artist, Judi Dench for J. Edgar, Jessica Chastain for the Help, and that fat, black girl also for the Help. Who I want to win: Carey Mulligan is always a revelation no matter what the role. In shame she is dangerously straying away from her comfort zone in a very risky, but excellent role. I think she has a better shot of garnering a nomination than Michael Fassbender even though his performance is equally as powerful. Who will win: I think the chubby, black girl will win. Don’t know why. I guess its an affirmative action thing.
I think that’s the most ignorant statement I heard in quite sometime (and borderline racist).
“Fat black girl” is Octavia Spencer.
I second that, Mr. Davis … but I will go a step further (which is physically impossible for me to actually do as I have lost both of my feet [but who needs legs to watch movies, right!?!]*) and say there is NOTHING “borderline” about it. The cutting “affirmative action” comment that followed spoke volumes. Isn’t it a bit ironic that the title of the preferred Carey Mulligan film — SHAME — applies to her now?
* Here is my embarassing “maybe legs are NOT overrated” movie moment: I’m assuming we all know the story of Million Dollar Baby (those who don’t … just don’t read any further) … which is the film I had just finished watching in the theater immediately before this happened to me. It was great!!! (well, not really) I walk with crutches and a single prosthetic and I went to see this film on my own one afternoon (several years ago). A character’s situation was worse and much more dire than my own in Million Dollar Baby and the character makes a drastic move as the double amputation was (loosely adding to it anyway) making life questionable. Etc. Watching the end of the film was tough for me and when I got up to leave I felt like I had to show EVERYone in the theater that life can be okay and we ALL just have buckle down and keep going … until you miss a step in the theater auditorium and you tumble down the aisle and your cructches go in two different directions! So … out of ALL of the thousands of films I have seen in the theatres THIS is the one I fall in and need to be picked up off of the floor (and my crutches gathered etc.). I felt beyond pathetic … and now I watch movies with similar subject matter (although I don’t think there have been any) in the comforts of my very own home
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Am i missing something? Per imdb and Box Office Mojo, “Coriolanus” won’t be released until January 20th in the US. I haven’t even seen mention of a limited awards release
I know her name ya fu***** douchebags. Have a sense of humor. Last time I checked both you di**heads are white.
Wow! Last time I checked I’m Puerto Rican and Black but thanks for noticing.
I find no humor in calling someone the “fat black girl” and referencing “affirmative action.” How could that possibly be conceived as a joke? I conceive it as ignorance.
Why is it okay for you to name all your potential nominees (who are white) but when it comes to Octavia Spencer’s name being mentioned, she’s just “the fat black girl.” That’s the bridge to ignorance if you ask me.
… and the name calling contines! “Puerto Rican and black” isn’t “white” … wow … ignorance, yes. I have a sense of humor too … but somethings just aren’t funny and racism is racism. Try again …
Mellisa I don’t know why you feel the need to talk the way you do, in a place you are very well not needed to stay. Your comments add nothing to any conversation so far and some of them are rather ignorant to say the least. If you are going to come here and pretend like you are some movie wizz go troll at another website.
Anyways back to the topic. I think Chastain is getting in with “The Tree of Life”. But besides that it’s pretty on point. And I still think Redgrave is the front runner. Specially after the little tribute the Academy put together specially for her in London this past week.
well, the previous prediction was better i guess. i still see judi dench in the first five. and too early for carey mulligan for the second nomination, she is so gorgeous, and will receive this honor sometime in the future. my five is, -not in order-
jessica chastain
judi dench
octavia spencer
berenice bejo
vanessa redgrave
1. Octavia Spencer – In and possible winner
2. Vanessa Redgrave – The only other winner I can see right now
3. Shailene Woodley
4. Sandra Bullock
5. Berenice Bejo
6. Jessica Chastain
7. Carey Mulligan
8. Janet McTeer
9. Judy Greer
10. Melissa McCarthy
Wasikowska thrown under the bus again? Poor girl. I thought she was supposed to be good in Albert Nobbs.
Bejo, Redgrave, and Spencer are sure nominees. Woodley, Chastain (probably for Tree of Life), either actress from Carnage (tentative guess goes to Foster), and McCarthy are lining up to take those last spots.
This one is all over the place but I’m going with chastain, spencer, mulligan, bejo and redgrave. I’m hoping mulligan wins, not only because shes gorgeous and I loved her in drive, but the role is challenging and she’s recieving the most buzz. And fat, black girl and affirmative action. Its kinda hilarious that your being so honest but it is a lil harsh. lol. Leave her alone girls shes just trynna be humorous. Dont get your panties in a bunch and get over it.
Vanessa deserves another oscar…
This category seems to be the most unpredictable at the moment. Although it seems to be a 2 horse race between Redgrave and Spencer at the moment. Chastain should get in based on her extraordinary year of massive performances in her 234,543,987 fiilms. Bejo seems like more and more likely to get in the Top5 especially if AMPAS goes apeshit for “The Artist” which critics certainly are. Which leaves this last spot. Shailene Woodley has been making noise this year as the female breakout in Clooney’s Descendant (Anna Kendrick anyone?) Sandra Bullock is still an unknown though as we know, Hollywood loves her. Mulligan still has a shot (AMPAS loves female nudity). However my darkhorse is Melissa McCarthy. Her surprise Emmy win and tearing it up on SNL followed by glowing reviews proves that she is loved and and is having a career year. Okay i adit that i am totally on the Melissa McCarthy bandwagon now. My Top 10 is like this:
1. Octavia Spencer (Brilliant in a ensemble period+likely BP nom pic)
2.Vanessa Redgrave (Legendary Vet Card)
3. Jessica Chastain (Has 234,543,987 films this yr—>she should campaign for The Help not TTOL!)
4. Bernice Bejo (Umm she’s lead in a beloved BP frontrunner, but has no chance for lead actress nom/category fraud)
5. Melissa McCarthy (her critics win is starting to stack up via Boston…fingers crossed)
6. Shailene Woodley (The Young Newcomer Card)
7. Carey Mulligan (still Hope but she’s needs some critics wins FAST!!)
8. Sandra Bullock (UNKNOWN Factor)
9. Janet McTeer (Mixed/negativereview hurts)
10. Kate Winslet/Jodie Foster (GG Nom at best probably)
Spencer/Chastain/Bejo/Mulligan/Woodley/McCarthy makes The BFCA cut. Redgrave snubbed =O!
Probably the toughest category right now.
1. Octavia Spencer
2. Berenice Bejo
3. Jessica Chastain
4. Shailene Woodley
5. Carey Mulligan
I think the first four are in and Mulligan will be competing for the 5th spot with McTeer, McCarthy and possibly Bullock.
I think Woodley, Mulligan, and McCarthy all have a leg up on McTeer. Chastain, Bejo, and Spencer will all be nominated, and Chastain will probably win.
Unfortunately I think Mulligan won’t make since Globes/SAG snubbed her. I firmly believe that Chastain/Spencer/Bejo are locks and that McCarthy is the 4th slot. The last spot should be between Woodley and McTeer. Either Woodley would ride the Clooney/Descendant wave or McTeer will get in via the Glenn Close goodwill (IMO she outshines Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs).
My prediction:
1-Octavia Spencer (the frontrunner for me)
2-Berenice Bejo (longshot at winning)
3-Jessica Chastain (for The Help)
4-Shailene Woodley (It is starting to look very possible for her to get nominated)
5-Melissa McCarthy
Alt: Janet McTeer.
I’m not sure about Carey Mulligan and I don’t think Sandra Bullock has a chance anymore.
Shailene Woodley will take McCarthy’s place.
The category is as crowded as Best Actress. Octavia Spencer is way out in front with wins from BFCA & GG. Chastain is closely behind. Berenice Bejo should easily get in based on her precursor mentions (SAG/GG/BFCA/BAFTA) and the love for her film. McCarthy should also be safe based on BFCA/SAG/BAFTA mentions and the faction that Bridesmaids is a serious BP contender now. Which leaves Woodley, McTeer, and Mulligan. In the beginning of the season my money would of been on Woodley(The hot newcomer card). However she missed SAG and BAFTA noms. Mulligan doesn’t seem to have gather enough steam to make it all the way leaving McTeer. Despite the flawed and not well recieved film, she managed to steal the film from Glen Close. I expect her to make the top5 despite being snubbed by BAFTA of all things (GG/SAG). Spencer by all things should win the Oscar easily however I am beginning to feel an Eddie Murphy vibe. i suspect Chastain to take the Oscar with Bejo being an alternate to win if they go gaga for The Artist ala a Juliette Bonoche-isque win. Same goes for McCarthy as she could win in a Marissa Tomei-isque win scenario. Whoever gets the last spot (McTeer/Woodley/Mulligan) should be happy to just be there.
1. Spencer (Frontrunner/GG+BFCA winner)
2. Chastain (Great year/has legitimate chance to win)
3. Berenice Bejo (If The Artist sweeps, she has a good chance)
4. Melissa McCarthy (Safe for a nom, In terms of winning remember Marissa Tomei….)
5. Janet McTeer (Should be happy to be there)
6. Shailene Woodley (It is either her or McTeer that makes it)
7. Carey Mulligan (Unfortunately her chances are slim/Wait for Gatsby??)
Woodley’s snub should come as no surprise. She lost to Thomas Horn at BFCA for Young Actor when many considered her to be a for winner. she got snubbed at BAFTAs, and SAG while McTeer got noticed. either way it was either her or McTeer. AMPAS chose McTeer.
Octavia Spenser is the juggernaut. Just get our of her way.
Octavia Spencer is SO undeserving. I’d rather see Shailene Woodley – or any other nominated lady win over her! Anyway, hope she still wins so that she carries the torch for The Help and opens room for Meryl Streep in the Best Actress category.